A key piece of the 2024 Detroit Tigers reunited with the workforce on Sunday, as beginning pitcher Jack Flaherty signed a two-year deal value $35 million. Flaherty excelled for the Tigers final 12 months, placing up a 2.95 ERA and a 3.12 FIP in 106 2/3 innings over 18 begins, good for two.1 WAR. With the Tigers seemingly out of the playoff race in July, he was shipped to the Dodgers, with whom he gained the World Sequence. He was respectable over 10 regular-season begins with Los Angeles, however his efficiency was decidedly combined within the postseason.
Like many short-term contracts for stable gamers, this deal comes with its personal ifs, ands, and buts. Flaherty’s assured cash is front-loaded, structured as a one-year, $25 million cope with a participant possibility for $10 million in 2026 that will increase to $20 million if he begins 15 video games in 2025. Whether or not one sees the deal as a two-year contract with an opt-out or a one-year contract with a participant possibility is a “potato, po-tah-to” situation that basically doesn’t matter right here; on this case, they’re the identical useful factor.
What does matter is that Flaherty’s market seems to not have developed as a lot as that of a few of the different high pitchers accessible. Whereas it shouldn’t elevate an eyebrow that Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes obtained a lot greater contracts, Flaherty additionally obtained a lighter deal than Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, and Luis Severino. Whereas Flaherty didn’t miss any vital time on account of damage final 12 months — he skipped solely a single begin with decrease again ache in July — questions on his again have been sufficient for the Yankees to have second ideas about buying and selling for him on the deadline. The Dodgers have been comfortable sufficient to accumulate him, and although his strikeout fee dropped off (32% to 26%), he was actually a web plus for an injury-thinned beginning employees down the stretch.
Each Michael Rosen right here and our buddy and former FanGrapheteer Mike Petriello have written quite a bit about Flaherty’s market currently, speculating into a few of the causes for his quiet market. I think that the questions on his late-season decline could be simpler for groups to dismiss if he had possessed a stronger document of constant efficiency lately.
In 2019, Flaherty broke out as among the best younger pitchers within the recreation; he posted a 2.75 ERA, a 3.46 FIP, and 4.7 WAR throughout 196 1/3 innings, positioned fourth within the Cy Younger voting, and obtained down-ballot MVP votes. However then he struggled with accidents and up-and-down effectiveness over the subsequent 4 seasons (4.42 ERA/4.36 FIP), together with the truncated COVID one. He began robust in 2021 (2.90 ERA/3.73 FIP) earlier than straining his indirect whereas batting throughout his Could 31 begin in opposition to the Dodgers. He spent 73 days on the injured listing, returned for 3 begins in August, after which strained his proper shoulder and missed one other month. That shoulder continued to hassle him in 2022. He was out till mid-June with shoulder bursitis and a SLAP tear in his labrum, made three begins, after which landed on the IL for one more 70 days with a shoulder pressure. He was wholesome in 2023, and after a tough first seven begins (6.29 ERA/5.32 FIP), he pitched nicely for his ultimate 13 begins with the Cardinals (3.58 ERA/3.69 FIP) earlier than he was traded to the Orioles on the deadline. However then the rails fell off; he was demoted to the bullpen and completed his Baltimore tenure with a 6.75 ERA and 4.84 FIP.
These are the explanations to fret about Flaherty, however there actually are causes to love him too. His 194 strikeouts and 38 walks final 12 months signify a pleasant ratio, and he’s basically been wholesome for 2 full seasons now. The drop-off in strikeouts was extra dramatic than you’d count on from the delicate deterioration in his contact proportion, and his repertoire knowledge didn’t point out any game-changing issues. His knuckle curve, a giant a part of final 12 months’s success, was nearly as good as ever. For those who merely ignore 4 months of actually superior efficiency and simply have a look at his Dodgers efficiency prorated over a full season, he nonetheless was an above-average pitcher in 2024, and this free agent market is nearly out of excellent beginning pitchers.
ZiPS Projection – Jack Flaherty
| Yr | W | L | ERA | FIP | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9 | 8 | 3.73 | 3.85 | 25 | 25 | 135.0 | 118 | 56 | 17 | 46 | 147 | 111 | 2.1 |
| 2026 | 8 | 8 | 3.82 | 3.92 | 24 | 24 | 129.7 | 116 | 55 | 17 | 44 | 137 | 109 | 1.9 |
ZiPS Projection Percentiles – Jack Flaherty (135 IP)
| Percentile | ERA+ | ERA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 158 | 2.63 | 4.1 |
| 90% | 148 | 2.81 | 3.7 |
| 80% | 130 | 3.20 | 3.1 |
| 70% | 122 | 3.41 | 2.7 |
| 60% | 115 | 3.60 | 2.4 |
| 50% | 111 | 3.73 | 2.1 |
| 40% | 105 | 3.94 | 1.8 |
| 30% | 101 | 4.11 | 1.6 |
| 20% | 92 | 4.51 | 1.0 |
| 10% | 85 | 4.89 | 0.5 |
| 5% | 77 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
ZiPS not less than thinks that the Tigers seemingly obtained a “excellent” deal, with the pc valuing Flaherty at two years, $32 million primarily based on his projection, along with his projected innings held down on account of his damage historical past. I think the Tigers could be completely advantageous if Flaherty pitches to his fiftieth percentile projection, even when these numbers are much less thrilling than what he gave them in 2024. Detroit’s choice to commerce Flaherty made sense in July due to the place the membership sat within the standings, however the Tigers positive felt his absence after they made their inconceivable push to the playoffs, once they desperately wanted a man to provide them innings. Their postseason rotation consisted of Tarik Skubal and a bunch of relievers.
ZiPS at present initiatives the Tigers because the fourth-best workforce within the AL Central, round .500, however that’s shut sufficient to be a menace to the highest groups within the division. Signing a starter like Flaherty at this level within the offseason is a giant get for Detroit, and it actually shores up this rotation. Flaherty’s return offers the Tigers a solidly established five-man rotation of Skubal, Flaherty, Reese Olson, Alex Cobb, and Casey Mize. With Flaherty round, they gained’t must spend the spring determining whether or not they belief Keider Montero or Matt Manning to be their fifth starter, they usually can comfortably give Jackson Jobe greater than two begins at Triple-A earlier than he both forces his method again onto the roster or is required as an damage alternative.
Does the Flaherty’s signing dramatically change how the AL Central appears? Not likely, however that’s onerous to do at this level within the offseason. Nevertheless, his addition addresses one among this workforce’s essential wants heading into the common season, and if the Tigers return to the postseason this 12 months, they’ll have a deeper rotation that ought to give them a greater likelihood to make it by means of.