Max Scherzer is heading north of the border. On the heels of an injury-marred season, the three-time Cy Younger winner agreed to a one-year, $15.5 million contract with the Blue Jays on Thursday. The deal remains to be pending a bodily, no trivial matter for a 40-year-old pitcher who was restricted to 9 begins in 2023.
Scherzer spent the final season and alter with the Rangers after being acquired from the Mets forward of the 2023 commerce deadline, and the previous three seasons on a three-year, $130 million contract that set a report for the very best common annual worth for a pitcher. This time round it’s former Tigers and Mets teammate Justin Verlander, whose subsequent two-year, $86.67 million cope with New York matched Scherzer’s AAV, kind of setting the marketplace for over-40 future Corridor of Famers coming off harm plagued seasons for AL West groups. He signed a one-year, $15 million cope with the Giants earlier this month.
The Rangers didn’t get a lot out of Scherzer, whose time in Texas added as much as simply 17 common season and three postseason begins interrupted by 5 separate journeys to the injured listing. That rely doesn’t even embrace his being changed on the World Collection roster after leaving Recreation 3 with again spasms. Fortuitously for the Rangers, they wrapped up their win over the Diamondbacks in 5 video games, nipping within the bud any what-might-have-beens relating to Scherzer lacking a possible Recreation 7 begin.
Alas, these again issues spilled over into final yr. Nonetheless experiencing ache in mid-December, roughly six weeks after his World Collection exit, Scherzer underwent surgical procedure to alleviate a herniated disc. The timing of the surgical procedure meant it will eat into his 2024 season, and it did. After being slowed by a nerve difficulty upon making his first rehab look for Triple-A Spherical Rock on April 24, he didn’t make his season debut till June 23 in opposition to the Royals, holding them hitless for 4.1 innings earlier than surrendering an MJ Melendez double and exiting after 5 scoreless frames. He made seven extra begins with out interruption earlier than being sidelined by shoulder fatigue in early August. After lacking a month and a half, he made only one extra begin, on September 14 agains the Mariners. Scratched from his subsequent flip resulting from left hamstring tightness, he was quickly recognized with a pressure, ending his season.
In all, Scherzer totaled simply 43.1 innings over his 9 begins in 2024, placing up a 3.95 ERA and 4.18 FIP. His 22.6% strikeout fee was his lowest mark since 2011, and whereas his 5.6% stroll fee was almost a full proportion level under his profession mark, he served up a gaudy 1.45 homers per 9.
His stuff was down, as you may need anticipated. When he was out there, Scherzer’s four-seam fastball averaged simply 92.5 mph, down 1.2 mph from 2023 and his fifth straight season of dropping velo, from a excessive of 94.9 mph in 2019. Each PitchingBot and Stuff+ considered his arsenal as considerably diminished; he dropped from 51 in 2023 to 46 in ’24 by way of the previous mannequin (the place 50 is common on a 20–80 scouting scale) and from 101 to 84 in ’24 by way of the latter (the place 100 is common on an listed scale). That mentioned, Scherzer did rating effectively sufficient within the command metrics of each fashions (62 for PitchingBot, 106 for Stuff+) to mitigate a few of his misplaced velocity and motion. Drilling down into his numbers, his 14.6% swinging strike fee was 1.4 factors forward of 2023 and 0.1 under his ’20–23 mixed fee. His 36% chase fee was over 5 factors forward of 2023, and actually increased than any of his his full-season charges. Whereas his xwOBAs in opposition to 4 of his 5 pitches (the four-seamer, curve, cutter, and changeup) rose relative to 2023, each his curve and slider did generate whiff charges of at the very least 40%.
So whereas there are some good indicators poking via the numbers, the combined bag is a reminder that nothing is assured for a pitcher of his classic. Nonetheless, there may be room for optimism, constructing upon what Scherzer mentioned when his season ended early about heading into the winter with no main well being questions:
“Look, this season’s been clearly irritating for me… In all probability probably the most irritating season of my profession. However the one excellent news is now I can go into the offseason wholesome. My again’s good, my arm’s good. The true critical issues that it’s good to take into consideration and speak about are literally in a great spot.”
Earlier this month, Scherzer threw for an unspecified variety of groups — the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Pink Sox, and Cubs had been amongst them — at Cressey Sports activities Efficiency in Florida. “He regarded like Max Scherzer,” a supply advised MLB.com. “His Cy Younger days are undoubtedly behind him, however he’s nonetheless adequate to be an efficient starter.”
That Scherzer wound up with the Blue Jays shouldn’t be too stunning, as they’ve been the crew most ceaselessly linked to him this winter. Then once more, they’ve been linked to virtually each free agent of be aware, leading to entries within the We Tried Tracker for the likes of Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Clay Holmes, Tanner Scott, Juan Soto and extra. They had been a finalist for Roki Sasaki as effectively.
The Blue Jays’ failure to land so lots of their targets lately has made them the butt of jokes. Previous to this month’s additions of reliever Jeff Hoffman (three years, $33 million), outfielder Anthony Santander (5 years, $92.5 million, although only a $14.3 million AAV after deferrals), and now Scherzer, their solely main league free agent signing was reliever Yimi García (two years, $15 million).
They is probably not completed, because the Blue Jays have emerged as the highest different for Pete Alonso if he doesn’t return to the Mets. Even when he does be a part of the Jays, the varied additions in all probability gained’t match the impression that an assortment beginning with one top-tier free agent would, but it surely’s not as if they’re merely stuffing the financial savings beneath a mattress. They’re lower than $8 million in need of the third Aggressive Stability Tax threshold ($281 million). In that gentle, one has to surprise if the Scherzer addition is both an indication that they don’t suppose they’ll land Alonso, or that they’re anticipating transferring a starter in the event that they do.
Scherzer joins a rotation that was fairly secure however fairly middling in 2024, one which ranked ninth within the AL in ERA (3.95) and tenth in FIP (4.15) and that already appears stocked with mid-rotation guys however lacks a transparent frontliner. Let’s face it, a crew whose prime starter manages simply 2.9 WAR — as Kevin Gausman did, after averaging 5.2 from 2021–23 — isn’t a lot of a risk to make the playoffs until nearly every little thing else goes proper. Gausman, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos, all of whom are nonetheless round, every made at the very least 31 begins and collectively accounted for 544.1 innings, however simply 6.1 WAR. Scherzer totaled 9.9 WAR in 2021–22, however the years and accidents since then strongly recommend he’s not a 5-WAR risk and is extra possible extra bulk for the center, although the expertise and aggressive fireplace he brings might pay some extra dividends by rubbing off on his fellow starters.
The unit must be rounded out by Bowden Francis, who was spectacular in a late-season trial within the rotation. He even took no-hitters into the ninth inning on August 24 in opposition to the Angels and September 11 in opposition to the Mets, not that anybody ought to confuse him with Dave Stieb. The Blue Jays do must construct some depth into their plan on condition that Scherzer made simply 50 begins in 2022–23. Yariel Rodríguez, who made 21 begins with a 4.47 ERA and 4.34 FIP as a 27-year-old rookie, is probably going ticketed for a swingman position that would make him the most definitely fill-in if Scherzer or anybody else goes down. High prospect Jake Bloss is an alternative choice to start out, although with simply 31.1 principally tough innings at Triple-A final yr (plus 44.2 good ones at Double-A), he in all probability wants extra seasoning. Then once more, it’s not arduous to ascertain basic supervisor Ross Atkins dealing one of many three mainstays to accommodate, say, the addition of Alonso after which making do with Rodríguez till Bloss is prepared. Alek Manoah could possibly be one other late-season choice, as he’s concentrating on an August return from hybrid Tommy John/inside brace surgical procedure.
As with final winter, once they failed of their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, the Blue Jays’ actuality has typically fallen in need of their large ambitions. Signing a 40-year-old future Corridor of Famer who in all probability nonetheless has one thing left — however who isn’t more likely to contend for an additional Cy Younger — is correct in keeping with that.