The place Can the Astros Match Alex Bregman?

One of many hardest selections a GM has to make is when to chop ties with a franchise icon. Free company normally comes round proper as a participant’s getting old curve begins to get furry, and in lots of instances the membership can be higher off shaking fingers with the participant and parting associates, slightly than sinking tons of of thousands and thousands of {dollars} as a way to drive the followers to look at their hero decline.

Until, in fact, the participant in query goes off and indicators with a rival and retains producing. During which case, not solely is the unique group worse off, everybody concerned within the determination appears to be like like an fool. And never simply that, a callous fool, which is the worst form of fool to be.

Because the final days of January whistle by, two of the highest remaining free brokers — Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso — discover themselves in exactly the scenario I’ve simply described. And for that motive, each gamers and their former employers have re-engaged in contract talks to see if they will work issues out in any case.

For Alonso, the incentives are clear. He desires to be paid like a four-time All-Star and — by advantage of being the highest energy hitter for a New York group — probably the most seen gamers within the league. If he had been to return to the Mets, the lineup would in all probability characteristic slightly extra Mark Vientos at third base than anybody desires. However all of us, like Software, know the items match.

Sadly, as a lot as Alonso is all of these issues I mentioned within the final paragraph, he’s a 30-year-old right-right power-only nook man who appears to be like headed for a precipitous collapse in bat pace. At the very least within the context of a long-term contract, it’s a profile I wouldn’t contact with another person’s 10-foot pole. You keep in mind unhappy Albert Pujols on the Angels? That is the way you get unhappy Albert Pujols on the Angels. And thus, we now have an deadlock.

Bregman is eight months older than his former SEC rival, however his talent set is far more different. Additionally, simply when it comes to hitting, Bregman has been nearly precisely as beneficial as Alonso over the previous three seasons: A 127 wRC+ in 2,014 plate appearances for Bregman, 128 in 2,038 for Alonso.

Which isn’t to say there aren’t causes to fret; in 2024, Bregman posted his lowest stroll fee since his rookie yr, due to an enormous uptick in swing fee throughout all zones. Nonetheless, in eight main league seasons he’s by no means recorded a wRC+ decrease than 114, and despite the fact that his MVP contender days are within the rearview mirror, he’s amassed at the very least 4.1 WAR three years operating, and in all six of his full main league seasons.

So yeah, what the heck, why wouldn’t the Astros — as they’re reportedly contemplating — simply run it again? This has been an enormously fruitful partnership; final season, Bregman handed Jimmy Wynn and Nolan Ryan, amongst others, for eighth place on the all-time franchise WAR listing. He’s a great week away from breaking into the highest 10 on the franchise hits listing, and a great season, two on the most, from the highest 5 in profession residence runs.

Besides, the Astros already made two strikes this offseason that make sense provided that Bregman is leaving, however not if he’s coming again.

The primary: Buying and selling Kyle Tucker for a package deal of Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith, and Hayden Wesneski. In different phrases, the Astros transformed their greatest participant into not one however two younger third basemen. However hey, Smith isn’t prepared now, and may not be for an additional yr, and Paredes has almost 400 main league innings at first base.

However then, per week later, Houston signed Christian Walker to a three-year contract. I used to be a bit lukewarm on the Tucker commerce; at greatest, I assumed it was a passable return below a framework of worth and method to team-building that I don’t actually agree with. However I beloved the Walker signing, an affordable deal for a middle-of-the-order hitter who’s additionally one of many few first basemen who defends the place effectively sufficient that it makes an actual distinction. He may play a unique place from Bregman, however he’s a wise right-handed hitter with some punch, and subsequently a strong alternative within the lineup and clubhouse.

However including Walker does just about drive Paredes to play third base. Paredes has performed all 4 infield positions within the main leagues, together with shortstop, however he’s solely made 4 begins there ever, and none since 2021. Which is ok — he’s a few scratch defender at third and his pull-side energy potential in Minute Maid Park has been mentioned advert nauseam.

Paredes’ presence, nonetheless, does depart Bregman with no place to play.

(I’ve highlighted Bregman in yellow right here, on account of his not really being on the group at this juncture.)

So there’s some defensive flexibility right here, however not a ton. We all know Bregman can play third, and effectively. We all know he performed shortstop for lengthy intervals of time early in his profession to cowl for an injured Carlos Correa, along with spending three years on the place at LSU. I’m unsure it’s nonetheless a secure guess he’d be good there, however in any occasion, the Astros have Peña at that place.

I don’t love Peña as a participant; in truth, I feel he’s fairly overrated. However even his best detractors would admit that he’s about a median hitter and a reliable defender at an absolute minimal. The Astros must be nuts to maneuver him to a different place to accommodate Bregman.

The opposite place I’d circle for Bregman is second base, which is the place I assumed he’d find yourself when he was a prospect. And if the Astros didn’t have Altuve, he may effectively have. However Altuve has been Houston’s on a regular basis second baseman for nearly 15 years now. Ordinarily he’d be much less prone to transfer than anybody, however apparently he’s volunteering to play left subject now, particularly if doing so would facilitate a reunion with Bregman.

If Bregman does come again, one thing’s bought to alter, as a result of the Astros — even with Smith nonetheless within the minor league sous vide bag — would have 5 starters for 4 infield positions. Shifting certainly one of them to designated hitter isn’t actually an choice for 2 causes: First, all 5 present vital defensive worth that may be wasted by DHing them. And second, Yordan Alvarez is camped out at that place, and if solely by advantage of his appreciable bodily mass, can be troublesome to maneuver.

Which is a disgrace, as a result of until we’re in line for a Taylor Trammell breakout or a Chas McCormick bounce again of legendary proportions, Houston’s outfield appears to be like fairly doodoopants. It might be good to maneuver one of many surfeit of infielders out to fill a kind of holes, or to place Alvarez’s bat in left full-time.

I keep in mind catching some flak for denigrating Alvarez’s protection some time again. He is perhaps gradual, however he gives worth together with his arm, went the argument. Even when that’s true, I don’t really feel superior about recycling an argument I keep in mind getting used about Pat Burrell. If Alvarez performs a pair dozen video games in left to facilitate matchups or present damage cowl, high-quality. I wouldn’t make it Plan A to start out him there 140 occasions a yr.

Apart from, that is the American League model of the Dodgers’ defensive inflexibility drawback. You may’t rotate gamers into DH as a result of one of many 10 greatest hitters on the earth wants that spot full-time? Boo-hoo, give me a second to search out the world’s smallest violin.

So we return to the thought of Altuve in left, which I don’t love. Partially — and I concede that that is irrational — I keep in mind the final time the Astros moved a future Corridor of Fame second baseman to the outfield to make room for a youthful infielder. It didn’t work out nice, and Craig Biggio was again on the filth after two regrettable years.

I’m not far more optimistic about Altuve in left. Throughout all leagues and ranges, Altuve has performed 19,485 1/3 innings within the subject. You wish to know what number of of these had been within the outfield? You in all probability already do: Zero. And along with that complete lack of expertise, Altuve has a effectively below-average arm even by the requirements of second base.

To make certain, Altuve has had his defensive struggles at second: Bear in mind when he bought the yips in 2020? Actually, the Astros contemplated shifting him to the outfield then. Perhaps they need to have, as a result of in 2021 he was nonetheless a plus runner. That’s not precisely the case anymore. Altuve’s dash pace hung across the eightieth percentile in his 20s, as much as the excessive 80s for just a few years. In 2024, his dash pace dropped to the forty fourth percentile. His defensive numbers at second base are additionally on the decline, however a scarcity of top-end pace would solely be extra noticeable within the outfield.

I suppose left subject is the place you place guys who don’t run all that effectively and might’t throw, however shifting Altuve there would put his bat in a a lot much less flattering context. Even coming into his age-35 season, Altuve can rake: He posted a 127 wRC+ final season, and topped 150 in every of the 2 prior seasons. However these contributions can be much less beneficial the place the baseline for offense is larger. Final season, second basemen hit .247/.310/.374, for a 93 wRC+. Left fielders hit .243/.316/.399, for a 101 wRC+.

The Astros know and clearly like Bregman, and the free agent marketplace for outfielders this yr was horrific. In a vacuum, I’d slightly give Bregman $140 million over six years than Anthony Santander or Tyler O’Neill or Jurickson Profar a high-teens AAV over three to 5. However contemplating how the remainder of this roster has been constructed, the Astros would’ve been a lot, significantly better off doing the alternative.

Or, you realize, not buying and selling Tucker within the first place.

If I had been Astros GM Dana Brown, and I got license to signal Bregman, I wouldn’t transfer Altuve to the outfield. I’d commerce Paredes.

Which might be a little bit of a celebration foul, contemplating that Paredes has already been dealt twice previously six months and hasn’t performed a recreation for Houston but. As a gesture of goodwill, I’d reduce him a verify to assist him break the lease on his rental in The Woodlands. However Paredes is coming into his age-26 season, with three years of group management left, and whereas he’s bought a little bit of an odd profile, he has usable abilities and the power to play a number of infield positions. The Astros clearly thought he was beneficial sufficient to commerce for him within the first place — there’s bought to be one other group with an additional outfielder and a hankering to make a problem commerce.

That’s the one method I see Bregman becoming with the Astros once more. “Don’t mess with a great factor” is a very good argument more often than not. Much less so after you’ve already messed with the nice factor.