Reds Commerce for Taylor — TAYLOR, Not Tyler or Trevor — Rogers

Break up the twins! The Giants did simply that on Wednesday, sending lefty Taylor Rogers and money to the Reds in alternate for minor league righty Braxton Roxby. The transfer ends the two-year run that paired Rogers together with his twin brother Tyler in San Francisco, and fortifies the again finish of Cincinnati’s bullpen.

Should you don’t have your scorecard useful, this Rogers brother is the lefty who throws from a three-quarters arm slot, with a mean launch angle of 29 levels in line with Statcast. The one nonetheless on the Giants is the righty submariner with a mean arm angle of -64 levels. Trevor Rogers is not any relation, and the timing of this morning’s piece by Michael Baumann is simply an eerie coincidence.

Taylor Rogers, who turned 34 on December 17 — Tyler did too, to be clear — is coming off a season wherein he posted a career-low 2.40 ERA in 60 innings unfold throughout 64 appearances. It was his third 12 months in a row and the sixth time in his nine-year profession that he’s reached the 60-game plateau. For as spectacular as his ERA was, it was considerably out of step together with his 3.75 FIP and three.29 xERA. Whereas he lowered his stroll charge from an unpleasant 11.6% in 2023 to eight.8%, his strikeout charge fell from 29.6% to 25.7%, making his 16.9% Ok-BB% his worst mark since 2017. This was the third 12 months in a row that Rogers’ strikeout charge has declined, from a excessive of 35.5% whereas he was with the Twins (however not together with his twin) in 2021. The rate of his sinker has been on the wane as effectively, dropping yearly from a excessive of 95.7 mph in 2021 to 93.0 final 12 months.

Rogers’ declining strikeout charge was offset by his dramatic enchancment in suppressing onerous contact. The place he was considerably beneath common in each 2022 and ’23, he was among the many greatest in ’24:

So what modified? The large factor is that Rogers threw his sinker extra usually than his sweeper for the primary time since 2020; his share of sinkers rose from 41.3% to 52.8%, and his share of these within the strike zone rose from 40.7% to 54.2%. That improve in sinker utilization was type of a hopping-on-the-bandwagon factor for Rogers, because the Giants threw extra sinkers than some other membership for the second straight 12 months; their 26.4% charge led the majors, although it was truly down from their 28.1% charge in 2023, the best of any workforce for the reason that pandemic-shortened season. Rogers’ sinker was way more efficient towards righties than it had been lately, and whereas it could be a misnomer to counsel they tattooed his sweeper, each righties and lefties obtained a lot better outcomes towards it on contact than anticipated:

General, righties hit simply .202/.268/.380 (.282 wOBA) towards Rogers, whereas lefties slashed .284/.364/.421 (.343 wOBA). This was the primary time Rogers confirmed a reverse platoon cut up since 2019, a useful final result contemplating 57% of the batters he confronted had been righties, nevertheless it’s not essentially a cut up that we must always count on to proceed. Over the previous three years, Rogers has held lefties to a .253 wOBA, in comparison with .339 for righties.

Rogers joins lefties Sam Moll and Brent Suter within the Cincinnati bullpen. Whereas Rogers has expertise closing — he saved 79 video games from 2019–22 with the Twins, Padres, and Brewers — he figures to share setup duties with righty Emilio Pagán in entrance of nearer Alexis Díaz. Although he did trim his stroll charge late within the season, Díaz was reasonably erratic final 12 months, pitching to a 3.99 ERA and 4.57 FIP even whereas changing 28 of 32 save possibilities, so it’s positively not a nasty factor that Rogers provides new supervisor Terry Francona a ninth-inning various in case Díaz struggles.

The Giants pays $6 million of the $12 million Rogers will make within the third 12 months of his three-year, $33 million deal, so that is one thing of a cut price for the Reds. That $6 million purchased the Giants the righty Roxby, who turns 26 in March. After going undrafted out of the College of Pittsburgh at Johnstown, Roxby related with the Reds throughout a Zoom assembly with the Kyle Boddy, then the workforce’s director of pitching, and assistant pitching coach Eric Jagers. “[T]hey had video breaking down my mechanics, in addition to the analytics of my pitches and the way I can use them higher,” Roxby instructed David Laurila in 2021. “That made it onerous not to decide on them.”

The 6-foot-3, 215-pound Roxby posted a 5.21 ERA however a 28.8% strikeout charge in 48 1/3 innings at Double-A Chattanooga in 2024, his first full season within the higher minors. Eric Longenhagen graded his slider as a plus together with his fastball and cutter each above common, although his command is simply 30-grade. From Roxby’s prospect report:

Roxby’s fastball was up two ticks in 2024 and now lives within the mid-90s with uphill angle and tail. Roxby’s funky decrease slot creates these traits. He tends to pitch backwards off of his sweeping mid-80s slider, which he instructions higher than his fastball. He has the stuff of a fairly commonplace center reliever, although Roxby’s command places him in additional of an up/down bucket.

With regards to the commerce, Tyler Rogers shared this very candy observe:

In all, it’s onerous to characterize this commerce as an affect transfer for both workforce, however it’s one in all a number of additions the Reds have made this month — most notably the additions of Gavin Lux and Austin Hays — whereas attempting to improve from final 12 months’s 77-85 report. Who is aware of, possibly they’ll commerce for Tyler (or Trevor) subsequent?