Final time we noticed Tobias Myers, he was beating the bejeezus out of the New York Mets in Sport 3 of the NL Wild Card Sequence: 5 innings, 66 pitches, 5 strikeouts, no walks, two hits allowed, one hit batter. Being a rookie beginning pitcher in a playoff sport within the 2020s, he exited early, however having allowed zero runs, it was to a refrain of Hosannas blended with “Who the heck is that this man?”
Myers’ chief weapon in his most well-known begin was his slider, which he threw 31.8% of the time, producing 4 whiffs, two foul balls, and three known as strikes. The Mets made contact seven occasions, leading to six outs.
However Myers’ handiest pitch throughout the common season — a minimum of on a per-pitch foundation — was his changeup. Myers threw 245 of these throughout his 138 regular-season innings, leading to a whiff fee of 44.4% and an opponent batting common of .083. Solely 4 of the 27 changeups that had been put in play became hits, and since all 4 of these had been singles, Myers’ had an opponent SLG to match his opponent batting common: .083.
Within the 2024 common season, 1,249 distinct pitcher-pitch kind combos received used a minimum of 200 occasions. Of these, Myers’ changeup had the second-lowest opponent SLG and the third-lowest xSLG.
Each Stuff+ and PitchingBot see Myers’ changeup as a minimum of common, however in neither case is it actually spectacular. PitchingBot has it thirty sixth amongst pitchers who threw 100 or extra innings final yr. Stuff+ has it seventeenth, however with bottom-of-the-barrel location and Pitching+ grades.
That’s comprehensible, as a result of simply when it comes to motion, Myers’ changeup appears fairly dire out of context.
Should you go to the pitch motion part of Myers’ Baseball Savant web page, you’ll see one thing that appears like the flag of Liechtenstein turned upside-down: a thick pink stripe over a thick blue stripe. Let’s simply have a look at Myers’ changeup in opposition to his two main fastballs. You’ll discover that Myers’ fastballs have a few of the greatest vertical motion within the sport, whereas his changeup is sort of actually the alternative:
Tobias Myers’ Vertical Motion
| Pitch | Velo. (mph) | Percentile | V-Mov. vs. Comp. (in.) | Percentile | IVB vs. avg (in.) | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seamer | 92.9 | twenty sixth | 3.0 | 99th | 3.3 | 97th |
| Cutter | 89.2 | forty ninth | 4.9 | 97th | 4.2 | 94th |
| Changeup | 81.1 | seventh | -5.2 | 2nd | -7.6 | 2nd |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Besides, just like the flag of Luxembourg, components of this desk have to be reversed. (I nervous briefly that I’d misplaced my deal with on that simile, however I feel we will all agree that all the pieces is below management now.)
“Induced vertical break vs. common” is a good idea, however whereas the axis into account stays the identical, which path we’re speaking about modifications from pitch to pitch. Fastballs have “rise” (in an idiomatic, quite than literal sense — I do know the physics, don’t @ me), so a constructive IVB quantity means much less relative drop. Changeups, like most different pitches, are designed to sink, so a constructive IVB quantity means extra relative drop. That -7.6 inches is relative to induced break on your common right-handed changeup; what it really represents is sort of a foot of spin-induced rise.
So does Myers’ changeup break much less as a result of it’s unhealthy, or does it break much less as a result of it’s speculated to be an increase pitch to match his fastball?
Based mostly on the place he throws it, the latter appears to be the case. Myers threw 22.9% of his changeups within the high 4 inches of the strike zone or larger in 2024; out of 130 pitchers who threw 200 or extra changeups, solely Brent Suter went mushy upstairs extra ceaselessly.
That is in distinction to Myers’ slider utilization. Myers often buries his main breaker, which is completely regular. A excessive four-seamer with rise, adopted by a breaking ball within the grime — that’s downright conventional pitch utilization.
I used to be curious whether or not the opposite elite changeup artists within the sport additionally play off their fastballs on this trend. So I took the 15 pitchers who threw a minimum of 200 changeups within the 2024 common season, and posted both an opponent wOBA or an opponent xwOBA (or each) of .200 or decrease. It’s an eclectic group: lefties and righties; starters and relievers; All-Stars and… um, non-All-Stars alike. Exhausting throwers, mushy tossers, fats ones, skinny ones, brief ones, tall ones, one fish, two fish, pink fish, blue fish:
The 15 Greatest Changeups in Baseball by (x)wOBA
| Pitcher | CH wOBA | CH xwOBA | Fastball Sorts | Most Frequent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | .111 | .183 | FF, SI, FC | Cutter |
| Victor Vodnik | .155 | .218 | FF | 4-Seam |
| Tobias Myers | .163 | .194 | FF, FC | 4-Seam |
| Hogan Harris | .168 | .232 | FF | 4-Seam |
| Edwin Uceta | .169 | .189 | FF, FC | 4-Seam |
| Chris Sale | .172 | .237 | FF | 4-Seam |
| Raisel Iglesias | .182 | .248 | FF, SI | 4-Seam |
| Jacob Webb | .183 | .218 | FF | 4-Seam |
| Michael Lorenzen | .189 | .227 | FF, SI, FC | 4-Seam |
| Cristopher Sánchez | .190 | .194 | SI | Sinker |
| Jason Adam | .191 | .240 | FF | 4-Seam |
| Robert Garcia | .195 | .193 | FF | 4-Seam |
| Yusei Kikuchi | .200 | .220 | FF | 4-Seam |
| Bobby Miller | .211 | .197 | FF, SI | 4-Seam |
| Nick Martinez | .216 | .200 | FF, SI, FC | 4-Seam |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
So that you see, about half of those guys throw a number of fastballs. Sánchez is sinker-only, however Myers is effectively inside the norm in that he throws a four-seamer and a cutter and really often a sinker. However is it regular for a changeup specialist to have a hard-rising changeup like Myers’? In any case, isn’t the entire level of a changeup to, effectively, change?
Positive, however path isn’t the one factor that may change. A lot of the pitchers on this record throw a changeup with an noticed motion path that goes fairly exhausting to the arm-side. One approach to put it’s this: Baseball Savant expresses this with a clock. Everybody however Myers has a changeup that strikes in a path that will symbolize an inappropriate time to eat lunch: 10 o’clock or earlier for lefties, 2 o’clock or later for righties.
Besides Myers, whose changeup is available in at 1:30 and overlaps along with his four-seamer.
In brief, Myers already has that top four-seamer/low slider mixture that’s been the bread and butter of relievers since time immemorial. Hitters can solely cowl one of many two. In the event that they guess fastball, they is perhaps on the cash when it comes to motion, however with such related motion on the changeup, they may swing solely to find that the pitch hasn’t arrived but.
That have to be irritating.
And that does appear to be what’s occurring. Listed here are the relationships between fastball and changeup when it comes to IVB and velocity. I’ve marked Myers in yellow, and the 2 pitchers whose commonest fastballs aren’t four-seamers — Sánchez and Kelly — in pink and purple, respectively:
Myers’ strategy will not be distinctive. (Alex Vesia, for one, does the identical factor along with his fastball and changeup, although he throws the latter pitch even much less ceaselessly and successfully than Myers does.) However it’s uncommon.