The Braves and Jurickson Profar Make a Excellent Match

In 2023, Jurickson Profar was fairly presumably the worst full-time participant in Main League Baseball. In 2024, he was top-of-the-line. Slashing .280/.380/.459 whereas taking part in half his video games on the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, Profar completed with a 139 wRC+, sixth greatest amongst certified NL batters. Regardless of his mediocre baserunning (-0.8 BsR) and poor protection (-8 DRS, -6 FRV), his bat carried him to a 4.3-WAR season. Nonetheless, he entered free company in a tough place. He’d be searching for a suitor who’d put rather more inventory in his current phenomenal efficiency than the lengthy, uneven interval that got here earlier than it. On Thursday, the Braves emerged as one such staff. Deciding that Profar’s professionals far outweighed his cons, Atlanta inked the veteran outfielder to a three-year, $42 million contract.

In hindsight, this contract and pairing really feel so predictable that I may have pre-written this text weeks in the past. In terms of projecting Profar’s future efficiency, the error bars are extensive. We’re speaking a few participant who was launched by, of all groups, the Colorado Rockies in 2023 and located himself beginning for the NL All-Stars lower than a 12 months later. But, projecting his contract turned out to be surprisingly simple. Ben Clemens predicted Profar would signal for 3 years and $45 million. MLB Commerce Rumors predicted Profar would signal for 3 years and $45 million. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN predicted Profar would signal for 3 years and $45 million. The median projection from our contract crowdsourcing train? Yep, three years and $45 million. As divided as this nation could be, we may all agree on one factor: Profar would signal a three-year take care of an AAV near $15 million. Lo and behold, the Braves pays him $14 million every year by way of 2027.

Three years and $42 million is identical contract each Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jorge Soler signed final offseason, and really near the three-year, $43.5 million deal Mitch Haniger signed the winter earlier than. In different phrases, it’s the going price for a nook outfielder in his early 30s with one thing like a two-win projection however All-Star upside. Profar might need a wider vary of outcomes, however his median projection is true in that window. If he reverts to the model of himself that we noticed in 2023, the Braves will quickly remorse his contract. If he retains up his 2024 efficiency, his wage will appear to be a cut price. In the end, nevertheless, Profar solely must be the participant he was in 2018 (107 wRC+, 2.2 WAR), 2020 (113 wRC+, 0.9 WAR), or 2022 (110 wRC+, 2.4 WAR) for this deal to pay dividends. That’s precisely the sort of participant Steamer thinks he’ll be in 2025:

Profar’s slot in Atlanta makes simply as a lot sense because the phrases of his deal. For one factor, he says the Braves have been all the time one in all his high selections in free company. Pandering as that remark could seem at first, it is smart why a Curaçao native would search out a chance with the Braves, and Profar confirmed as a lot in a Zoom name with reporters on Friday. “Curaçao is a Braves nation,” he defined. “In every single place you go, everyone seems to be a Braves fan.”

Thanks largely to Andruw Jones, many Curaçaon gamers grew up rooting for Atlanta, together with Ozzie Albies and former Braves Andrelton Simmons and Jair Jurrjens. Of the 17 present and former MLB gamers born in Curaçao, six have performed for the Braves, greater than twice as many as another staff. These six gamers – Jones, Simmons, Albies, Jurrjens, Kenley Jansen, and Randall Simon – have mixed for 104.3 WAR with the membership. That’s greater than 60% of all WAR produced by all Curaçaon MLB gamers since Hensley Meulens turned the primary in 1989. Profar and Albies will work to extend that whole in 2025.

As for the staff’s perspective, Alex Anthopoulos stated earlier this winter the Braves would doubtless improve their payroll. But, previous to signing Profar, Anthopoulos had really saved greater than he’d spent for 2025. He traded Soler, reworked the contracts of each Reynaldo López and Aaron Bummer, and had but to signal any free brokers to assured main league offers. Because of this, Atlanta’s estimated payroll was greater than $30 million under final 12 months’s ultimate determine. So, the Braves had cash to spend, and bolstering the lineup was the plain technique to spend it. They wanted offense after scoring simply 4.35 runs per sport in 2024 and ending with a team-wide 100 wRC+.

Addressing the media on Thursday, Anthopoulos stated the Braves had all the time thought-about Profar “the second-best free-agent bat,” behind solely Juan Soto. These feedback really feel like way more of the pandering type than what Profar stated about rising up a Braves fan — as a result of no less than Profar’s cross the scent check. But, even when Profar wasn’t the second-best bat in the marketplace, he was one of the best hitter nonetheless out there who made sense from a positional standpoint. Suffice it to say, neither Alex Bregman nor Pete Alonso was a match; the Braves are totally stocked at third base, first base, and DH.

The nook outfield, nevertheless, was a transparent space for enchancment. After buying and selling Soler to the Angels, and with Ronald Acuña Jr.’s timeline to return from ACL surgical procedure nonetheless unclear, the Braves have been set to enter 2025 with each Bryan De La Cruz and Jarred Kelenic occupying spots within the beginning lineup. As Michael Baumann laid out final month, neither of these gamers has earned an on a regular basis job on a contending membership. Clearly, Profar is a large improve. He also needs to be an improve over Soler, the participant he’s successfully changing from final 12 months’s lineup. One may make a case that Soler is the higher offensive participant; his bat is extra dependable, even when his ceiling isn’t fairly as excessive. Nonetheless, Soler is such a legal responsibility within the outfield that he makes Profar appear to be Steven Kwan. Thus, it’s laborious to search out fault in Anthopoulos’s resolution to dump Soler and reinvest that cash in Profar. If all goes in response to plan, the Braves may ultimately have three All-Star-caliber gamers – Profar, Acuña, and Michael Harris II – roaming the outfield grass.

The $42 million query, after all, is that if Profar will ever play at an All-Star stage once more. His upside is plain. When confronted with two units of knowledge, one in all which is way, a lot bigger than the opposite, we’ve all been taught to position extra emphasis on the larger pattern, even when the smaller pattern is more moderen (and thrilling). In Profar’s case, meaning we will’t ignore his 92 wRC+ over the primary 3,623 plate appearances of his profession. His unbelievable 2024 efficiency brings that wRC+ quantity up solely to 99. Over 11 massive league seasons, he has been under common on the plate most of the time:

On the similar time, Profar achieved one thing very actual in 2024, and with it, his ceiling rose to the sky. Do you suppose massive leaguers can fluke their technique to one nice season like that? To quote Brent Rooker, “No they’ll’t.” The overwhelming majority of gamers couldn’t produce a 139 wRC+ over a full season whilst their Ninety fifth-percentile end result. Even fewer may again that up with equally spectacular underlying metrics. Certainly, the 2024 model of Profar mixed his eager eye on the plate (11.4% stroll price, Ninetieth-percentile chase price) and glorious bat-to-ball abilities (Ninetieth-percentile whiff price) with newfound power. His 44.4% hard-hit price ranked within the 71st percentile. By no means earlier than had he ranked above the underside 25% of the league:

Even higher, this new model of Profar was constantly productive. He had just one month, August, during which his wRC+ was under 130, and even then, it was nonetheless a good 102. In the meantime, his xwOBA in August, additionally a season low, was nonetheless a wholesome .337. If that have been his full-season quantity, it could have ranked within the 74th percentile. Sticking with the theme of consistency, Profar hit nearly as effectively from either side of the plate, posting a 137 wRC+ as a lefty going through righties and a 147 wRC+ as a righty going through lefties. What’s extra, he outperformed the league-average wOBA and xwOBA in opposition to all three pitch varieties: fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches:

Along with his consistency, I used to be inspired by the truth that Profar’s pull price on every sort of batted ball was decrease in 2024 than it was the 12 months earlier than. His total pull price dropped from 44.7% in 2023 to 40.4% in ’24. There isn’t something mistaken with pulling the baseball, but it surely was all of the extra spectacular to see him make such laborious contact and not using a sudden improve in pull price. Merely put, hitting the ball that laborious that constantly with out sacrificing contact or self-discipline for pull price isn’t one thing a hitter simply does by chance. Positive, outlier seasons occur. We’ve all seen hitters’ exit velocities spike one season solely to drop again down the following. But, so far as huge, surprising quality-of-contact enhancements go, this one is about as plausible as they arrive.

All in all, Profar’s efforts led to an enchancment of 5.9 WAR from 2023 to ’24. Over the previous decade, solely 9 gamers have elevated their WAR by a lot from one 12 months to the following. None of these gamers was coming off an undisrupted, wholesome season the 12 months prior, and solely two have been already of their 30s: Joey Votto in 2015 and Aaron Decide in 2024. In different phrases, what Profar achieved is nearly unprecedented in current reminiscence. Some may use that as proof to write down it off as a fluke. In spite of everything, nobody ever does this. Then once more, others may see it as proof that this isn’t the sort of season anybody can simply luck into. In spite of everything, nobody ever does this.

The Braves are within the latter camp. Anthopoulos expressed as a lot, telling reporters, “We consider who [Profar] was final 12 months is who he’s going ahead.” Perhaps that’s true, however the government’s confidence appears to be no less than a little bit of an exaggeration. Then once more, what else was he speculated to say? Both method, Anthopolous didn’t precisely need to put his cash the place his mouth was to get a deal performed. The Braves will hope Profar continues to be a star, however so long as he’s a league-average nook outfielder, his $14 million annual wage is a superbly affordable value to pay.