2025 ZiPS Projections: St. Louis Cardinals

For the twenty first consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this yr’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The workforce order is chosen by lot, and the penultimate workforce is the St. Louis Cardinals.

Batters

The 2024 St. Louis Cardinals skilled a little bit of a bounce again from the workforce’s worst season in many years, however in a yr the place it took 89 wins to seize the ultimate NL Wild Card spot, the Pink Birds had been nonetheless effectively in need of having the ability to squeeze again into the playoffs. Whereas issues had been sunnier than they had been the yr earlier than, the Cardinals had been outscored on the season, and neither of the celebs within the lineup, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, returned to their 2023 kind. It doesn’t seem as if the Playing cards really feel like they’re on the precipice of an October return, as they’ve largely spent the offseason making an attempt to commerce Arenado.

May Arenado really be underrated at this level? Whereas his offensive manufacturing has come down fairly a bit from its peak, his 149 wRC+ in 2022 was probably all the time a late-era outlier, and a 102 wRC+ is hardly awful for a 3rd baseman. He’s not a star with out a resurgence on the plate, however he was not less than a good participant in 2024, amassing 3.1 WAR due to superb protection on the sizzling nook. I believe the notion of Arenado’s 2024 is perhaps rather a lot worse than his season really was. After I posted the depth chart graphic on social media, it led to a few conversations about ZiPS projecting a comeback season, regardless that the two.9 WAR it forecasts is under his 2024 quantity!

With two obtrusive exceptions, ZiPS principally thinks that the Playing cards are satisfactory to good across the diamond. Masyn Winn tasks because the lineup’s second-best participant, and although ZiPS isn’t loopy about Thomas Saggese, it likes Brendan Donovan sufficient to finish up with a very good second base WAR quantity, assuming the latter will get the plate appearances projected on our Depth Charts. The system tasks that Willson Contreras will probably be adequate offensively that he could possibly be an inexpensive first baseman, and although it pulls again significantly on Iván Herrera’s rookie offense, the tandem of him and Pedro Pagés additionally seems stable.

The place ZiPS is sad is within the non-Lars Nootbaar parts of the outfield. In heart area, Victor Scott II’s protection isn’t sufficient to fully cancel out a bleak offensive projection, and the pc doesn’t see Michael Siani as offering a lot of a shove. Scott’s a bizarre one to mission in that he really hit fairly decently in Double-A in 2023, however he was completely horrific within the minors final yr, placing up a 59 wRC+. Notice that that’s not the interpretation, however his precise quantity. Scott hit considerably higher in July after altering his stance, placing up a .711 OPS for the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds, however that trace of manufacturing disappeared within the majors and he earned a demotion in mid-September.

As for the opposite exception, Jordan Walker, ZiPS really thinks he improved his protection considerably in 2024, to the purpose that he’s not a pure designated hitter, only a pretty awful proper fielder who might play if he hits. However that’s type of the issue. Walker now has about 500 PA of not hitting Triple-A pitchers. If Scott had a 93 wRC+ at Triple-A, it could be trigger for optimism, but it surely’s fully insufficient for somebody who is meant to be valued completely for his bat. Walker isn’t outdated, and you’ll squint and nonetheless type of see his upside, however the odds are towards him being an actual contributor in 2025.

Pitchers

I’m unsure why ZiPS is all of a sudden reminded of a few knuckleballers, Phil Niekro and Tom Candiotti, when it seems at Sonny Grey, however eradicating them from the massive cohort doesn’t change Grey’s projection, which makes him the favourite to signify the Cardinals on the All-Star Sport this summer season. It’s arduous to inform how significantly the workforce actually thought-about buying and selling Grey, however he does have some fairly respectable worth with two years left on his contract. In fact, that assumes that his forearm tendinitis isn’t one thing darker, however actually, you would say that about each pitcher who has ever existed.

He tasks as having decrease long-term upside than both Quinn Mathews or Tink Therefore, however ZiPS is more and more a fan of Michael McGreevy, who has good management and retains the ball down, which has worth in entrance of what ZiPS tasks to be an above-average infield. Each Mathews and Therefore mission as reputable starters proper now, with ZiPS a little bit extra assured in regards to the former for 2025. ZiPS isn’t anticipating fairly pretty much as good a yr from Erick Fedde, but it surely stays snug with the again of St. Louis’ rotation, each when it comes to its non-horrendous high quality and its cheap depth.

It is perhaps a stretch to say that ZiPS sees the Cardinals bullpen as “Ryan Helsley and another guys,” however their hard-throwing nearer is the one reliever who the pc can summon any pleasure about. Helsley misplaced a few strikeouts per recreation getting back from his 2023 accidents, however ZiPS isn’t apprehensive about that, as his velocity is unbroken and his contact fee is in step with that of a whiffier pitcher. Ryan Fernandez, JoJo Romero, and John King all mission as a bit above common, and the pc would put Matthew Liberatore in that group as effectively. ZiPS is slightly meh on the low-leverage portion of the bullpen, and whereas the Cardinals might definitely add an arm or two there, this doesn’t look like a workforce that intends to make a lot as a ripple in free company.

In contrast to most seasons, ZiPS does’t see the Cardinals as being in the identical tier because the Brewers and Cubs. St. Louis has higher projections than the Pirates and Reds, not less than for now, however even then, solely barely. It has been an extremely quiet offseason in St. Louis outdoors of the fixed Arenado rumors, with the workforce doing nearly nothing, and we’re now only some weeks from the opening of spring coaching. The workforce’s greatest signing this winter? Ryan Vilade. Even dropping by the wayside can be extra attention-grabbing, and possibly extra useful than cosplaying as the warmth loss of life of the universe.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Measurement of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart enjoying time. The ultimate workforce projections could differ significantly from our Depth Chart enjoying time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever doable. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2025 because of damage, and gamers who had been launched in 2024. So sure, for those who see Joe Schmoe, who stop baseball again in August to kind a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that solely covers songs by The Smiths, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values may differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody towards — and may karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to provide projected workforce WAR. You will need to keep in mind that ZiPS is agnostic about enjoying time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a workforce will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both attributable to misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our good friend and former editor. You may, nevertheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.