Landmines and Touchdown Spots for Ha-Seong Kim

0
37


Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports activities

On August 18 in Colorado, Ha-Seong Kim led off first base, then dived again to beat a pickoff try. He tore the labrum in his proper shoulder, and that was the final time we noticed him play in 2024. After a failed rehab try, Kim underwent surgical procedure in October, and he gained’t be able to play once more till someday between April and June. Simply as unsure: The place precisely Kim can be suiting up when he returns. There’s little question about his ability. Over the previous 4 years, Kim has hung out at second, quick, and third, and neither DRS nor FRV has ever rated him as beneath common at any of these spots. He wanted a 12 months to regulate on offense after arriving from the KBO in 2021, however over the previous three seasons, he’s run a 106 wRC+. That ranks thirteenth amongst shortstops, and over the identical interval, his 10.5 WAR ranks eleventh.

Kim entered free company after each he and the Padres declined their ends of a mutual possibility, and he got here in at ninth on our Prime 50 Free Brokers. In accordance with the projections, he’ll command a four- or five-year take care of an AAV within the neighborhood of $19 million. Nonetheless, the shoulder harm may value him as a lot as half of the 2025 season, and it makes for a tricky needle to string. He’s acquired to signal with a staff that wants a stable infielder, however not badly sufficient to want one instantly. Furthermore, a shoulder harm is very scary for Kim, whose arm energy is a crucial a part of his general worth and who already possesses below-average energy on the plate. For that motive, it wouldn’t be stunning to see Kim get a pillow contract: Ben Clemens proposed two years with an opt-out. Again in November, Mark Feinsand reported that Kim had generated “plenty of curiosity,” and wrote concerning the chance that he’d be among the many first free brokers off the board. Nonetheless, it’s now late January, and should you cruise by our Depth Charts, you’ll discover that there simply don’t appear to be many good touchdown spots for Kim. Allow us to start our litanies.

In case you begin by taking a look at Kim solely as a shortstop, it’s tough going as a result of the place is loaded. Our Depth Charts present simply eight groups projected for underneath 3.0 WAR at quick, and simply three groups beneath 2.0. In 2024, 4 of the top-10 spots in place participant WAR belonged to shortstops: Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Francisco Lindor, and Elly De La Cruz. The highest 30 additionally included Willy Adames, Corey Seager, Mookie Betts, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson. Even after a down 12 months, Trea Turner belongs on any listing of famous person shortstops, as does Xander Bogaerts, who took over for Kim in San Diego. And identical to that, we are able to scratch 11 groups off our listing.

Under the famous person tier, we’ve acquired younger stars like Zach Neto, Anthony Volpe, CJ Abrams, Masyn Winn, Jeremy Peña, and Xavier Edwards. Someplace near that tier is one other group of younger, cost-controlled gamers in Geraldo Perdomo, Ezequiel Tovar, and Brayan Rocchio. The A’s have prospect Jacob Wilson seemingly able to take over and projected for an enormous 3.7 WAR, and so they additionally seem to have met their enough-to-avoid-a-grievance payroll threshold. The Blue Jays are in a difficult place, with Bo Bichette coming into a contract 12 months after a disastrous 2024 marketing campaign, nevertheless it’s laborious to think about they’ll determine to maneuver on from him now. They had been rumored to be eager about Kim as a second baseman again in November, however they’ve since traded for Andrés Giménez to fill that function. The Mariners are available in the market for stable place gamers, however they’ve J.P. Crawford cemented at shortstop. That knocks off 12 extra groups.

After that, we are able to scratch off the Rays, Pirates, and White Sox, simply because it will be an actual shock to see them spend the sort of cash it will take to land Kim. In case you’re holding rating at house, that leaves simply 4 groups that might perhaps, presumably signal Kim to play shortstop: the Braves, Brewers, Tigers, and Pink Sox. If we have a look at the potential for Kim taking part in second or third base, we are able to welcome 4 groups again into the dialog: the Yankees, Mariners, Giants, and Kim’s former employer, the Padres. That will get us as much as eight groups, however every has its personal problems. Let’s dive in.

The Braves make loads of sense, as shortstop is one in every of their largest weaknesses. Incumbent Orlando Arcia is coming into the final 12 months of his contract, and Kim is clearly a superior participant. Nonetheless, Kim is represented by Scott Boras, and the Braves usually keep away from Boras purchasers.

With Willy Adames gone, the Brewers want somebody to man shortstop. RosterResource at the moment has Joey Ortiz penciled in to begin at quick, however that leaves them with a gap at third base, the place Ortiz performed final season. Second baseman Brice Turang is a wonderful fielder who may conceivably deal with shortstop if wanted, however shifting him there would open up a spot at second. The excellent news is Kim is a match for all three positions, although so long as his shoulder is wholesome and permits him to make all the required throws, he’s in all probability higher suited to play shortstop than the opposite two infielders. Furthermore, Kim’s contact-oriented, speed-and-defense sport would definitely make him a stunning slot in Milwaukee. This simply comes down as to if the Brewers would take into account spending the cash to get him. We estimate that Kim will get someplace between $18.4 and $20 million per 12 months, which might make him the second-highest-paid participant in Milwaukee.

This subsequent one is actually unlikely, nevertheless it’s additionally fascinating. The Pink Sox have Trevor Story signed at shortstop by 2027, and so they’ve acquired two extremely rated center infield prospects, Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer. Nonetheless, Story has been unable to remain wholesome or to supply throughout his time in Boston. At second base, indications are that Campbell, Vaughn Grissom, and David Hamilton can be in competitors to interrupt camp with the beginning job. All of that is to say that though the Pink Sox are gearing as much as contend, their center infield is in want of some stability. A flexible defender like Kim would definitely be an improve over what the Pink Sox at the moment have on the huge league stage. It’s potential that Campbell and Mayer would make him superfluous, however as of now, the center infield is an enormous query mark.

If Kim goes to remain at quick, Detroit is the clearest match. Our Depth Charts at the moment present Trey Sweeney, Javier Báez, and Zach McKinstry getting the staff’s shortstop reps, and Kim would characterize a major improve over all three. Báez has run a mixed wRC+ of 70 over the previous three seasons, and though he’s underneath contract for one more three seasons, the Tigers merely can’t afford to maintain taking part in him in the event that they hope to maintain profitable. For a non-shortstop, McKinstry graded out surprisingly effectively on the place final season, however it’s important to assume the Tigers would fairly have a real shortstop taking part in there. Rookie Trey Sweeney manned quick in the course of the playoffs, however the projections see him as someplace between common and substitute stage subsequent season. Again in December, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press mentioned on the Days of Roar podcast (which deserves just a few listens for its identify alone) that the Tigers had curiosity in Kim, however that was earlier than they signed second baseman Gleyber Torres to a one-year deal. With Torres now on the keystone, including Kim to play shortstop would characterize an enormous achieve up the center for a Tigers staff that’s on the rise.

Nonetheless, it’s unclear if shortstop is the first place that Detroit is focusing on. For instance, Alex Bregman has been linked to the Tigers as a potential improve at third base, particularly due to his connection to supervisor A.J. Hinch. Proper now, Detroit is predicted to begin 50-FV prospect Jace Jung at third, but when the staff doesn’t wish to financial institution on him simply but, Bregman can be the higher short-term possibility. In fact, as issues stand, Bregman isn’t eager about short-term offers, and the Tigers have already got Jung, their fourth-ranked prospect on Eric Longenhagen’s up to date 2024 listing and no. 83 general, as their third baseman of the longer term, so it won’t make sense for them to splurge right here. Conversely, there’s additionally the query of whether or not the Tigers plan to maintain including in any respect or in the event that they’ll cease with Torres. Their payroll sits at an estimated $111 million, which is larger than final 12 months’s $104 million however decrease than the figures they ran in 2023 ($121 million) and 2022 ($130 million). There must be some room within the price range, although it’s laborious to gauge how a lot larger they’d be prepared to go. Kim can be a wise midpoint between the 2 extremes; he gained’t value them an excessive amount of in cash or long-term dedication, he’d be an enchancment over what they’ve at shortstop now, and he’d be a fallback choice to play third in case Jung isn’t fairly prepared for an on a regular basis function. Furthermore, he’d give them safety at second base over the following few years if Torres leaves in free company after this season. Kim makes quite a lot of sense for Detroit, however the group has sufficient different choices within the infield that might preserve this pairing from occurring.

The Padres know Kim effectively, and firstly of the offseason, GM A.J. Preller mentioned the staff would “like to convey him again.” Between Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth, Bogaerts, and Manny Machado, the Padres have sufficient infielders to carry issues down, however they in all probability can be glad to return Cronenworth to first and Arraez to DH. The mutual possibility for the 2025 season that either side declined was for $8 million, and whereas Kim will value greater than that, it’s unclear what San Diego’s price range state of affairs appears to be like like. The Padres reportedly made a proposal for Hyeseong Kim, so they might appear to be available in the market for center infield assist, however to this point, Martín Maldonado’s minor league deal represents their largest free agent signing.

Kim additionally is sensible at second base in Seattle, because the Mariners are projected to get 2.3 and a couple of.4 WAR from the second and third base positions, respectively. Nonetheless, very like Milwaukee, if the Mariners had been to signal Kim for something approaching what he’s value, he can be making greater than everybody besides Julio Rodríguez and Luis Castillo. As issues stand proper now, we estimate the Mariners to have $145 million payroll, nearly precisely the identical because the $144 million mark they hit final season and the $140 million one they ran in 2023. We shouldn’t count on them to go a lot, if any, larger than the place they’re now.

The Yankees can be an excellent match for Kim. Proper now, our Depth Charts present them with 3.4 projected wins from the second base place, however that’s as a result of we now have Jazz Chisholm Jr. slotted in there, with DJ LeMahieu and Oswaldo Cabrera dealing with third. The 2 of them are projected to mix for simply 1.5 WAR on the place, which merely isn’t adequate for a staff that simply gained the pennant and is wanting to take action once more this 12 months. Including Kim would permit Chisholm return to 3rd base, which he performed fairly effectively final season regardless of having zero earlier expertise on the place, with LeMahieu and Cabrera holding down the fort there till Kim is wholesome. The Yankees are additionally at the moment about $19 million underneath their 2024 payroll, so that they have sufficient area to signal Kim with out exceeding final 12 months’s spending.

Our final chance is the Giants, and so they additionally make an entire lot of sense. They had been reportedly in on Torres earlier than he signed with Detroit, so we all know they’re in search of assist at second base, and we now have their 2025 payroll at $25 million underneath their 2024 mark. Tyler Fitzgerald in all probability can’t maintain the wonderful, largely BABIP-fueled numbers he put up final season, however he ought to nonetheless make a wonderful stopgap till Kim is able to take over at second base. It could definitely be fascinating to see Kim go away Petco Park to play his house video games in San Francisco, the place Oracle Park’s spacious outfield ought to assist his doubles energy play up.

OK, so we’re a little bit greater than 2,000 phrases in, and we now have eight potential suits for Kim. For many, it’s merely a query of cash. Are the Brewers, Mariners, or Tigers prepared to blow by the payroll they ran final 12 months? Are the Yankees prepared to match theirs? Do the Braves assume they want an improve at quick, and in the event that they do, are they prepared to lastly take care of Boras and pay a free agent what he’s value? The Padres’ state of affairs has extra historical past, and the drama within the proprietor’s suite provides one other layer of problems. As for the Giants, it simply comes down as to if the brand new entrance workplace regime thinks Kim can be one of the best allocation of their assets. Kim is a good, versatile participant, and there are few groups that he wouldn’t enhance. All the identical, there are only a few groups for whom signing him would characterize a easy determination.



Supply hyperlink

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here