You’re Not Going To Imagine What Xavier Edwards Is Slapping Now

The 2023 Miami Marlins have been fairly good. They couldn’t hit a lot, however they’d an enormous surplus of pitching. Sufficient not solely to outlive an damage to 2022 Cy Younger winner Sandy Alcantara, however to commerce from that surplus and purchase batting champion Luis Arraez. They gained 84 video games and made the playoffs. As soon as there, they obtained fully smoked within the Wild Card spherical, however issues gave the impression to be entering into the suitable path.

They weren’t. Extra accidents piled up in 2024. Different pitchers regressed. Many, if not most, of the important thing gamers from 2023 — Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jake Burger, Josh Bell, Jesús Luzardo, Jorge Soler, Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk, even Arraez himself — both have been traded or left as free brokers. So too did supervisor Skip Schumaker, who earned plaudits for his dealing with of a flawed however respectable roster in 2023, however misplaced 100 video games a 12 months later with the shattered remnants of that playoff staff. He’s most likely higher off.

In order for you causes for optimism, you’re going to need to look onerous. However if you wish to discover the successor to Arraez, you possibly can cease on the high of Miami’s lineup.

Xavier Edwards was a bit participant on the 2023 Marlins; he obtained into 30 common season video games and batted simply as soon as in Miami’s two-game Wild Card spherical loss to the Phillies. However he obtained his cash’s value out of that plate look: He singled and got here round to attain Miami’s solely run in Recreation 1. Elevated to beginning shortstop for the Marlins in early July of final 12 months, he hit .328/.397/.423 in 70 video games. That’s a 128 wRC+, plus 31 stolen bases in 35 makes an attempt, and a couple of.2 WAR in roughly half a season.

Now, I’m not saying that Edwards is nearly as good a contact hitter as Arraez. Possibly one or two different guys in the whole league can put the bat on the ball in addition to Arraez can; Edwards’ in-zone contact price final 12 months was 89.7%, which might’ve been twenty sixth amongst certified hitters if he’d doubled his enjoying time. Arraez was second in in-zone contact price, at 96.4%.

Arraez struck out simply 4.3% of the time and walked 3.6% of the time; these numbers are positively anachronistic. What within the Wee Willie Keeler does he suppose he’s doing? Edwards’ stroll and strikeout charges are extra regular by comparability: 17.2% strikeout price and 10.9% stroll price. However lately, even a 17.2% strikeout price is sweet for the perfect third within the league, and when Edwards makes contact — which, once more, is frequent, he hits plenty of line drives. His LD% in 2024 was 22.7%, which might’ve been tied for twentieth amongst certified hitters with Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman.

So we’ve obtained a line drive hitter with plus bat-to-ball abilities, at an up-the-middle place, with eye-popping baserunning numbers. The 31-for-35 stolen base price in half a season is fairly bonkers by itself, however take into account that Edwards produced 6.2 runs of baserunning worth in simply 70 video games, which was a top-10 determine in baseball no matter enjoying time. Baserunning creates much less worth than hitting or protection, nevertheless it’s a free six runs — greater than 10 runs prorated over a complete season. Are you turning up your nostril at an additional 10 runs in case you’re the Marlins? I feel not.

Briefly, Edwards was very, excellent final 12 months and I like rather a lot about his sport, and I feel his mixture of on-base capacity and velocity makes him a really efficient leadoff hitter. (And don’t underrate the velocity half, because the center of the Marlins’ order isn’t going to be that useful in getting Edwards across the bases.)

So what’s the catch?

Wait, why would there need to be a catch?

There’s at all times a catch. It’s the Marlins. Plus, if I really thought Edwards was an impression shortstop who may hit .330 with 70 walks and 60-odd stolen bases 12 months after 12 months, I’d be evaluating him to, like, Elly De La Cruz and never Arraez. And I might’ve written about him months in the past as an alternative of ready for a sluggish information day in January.

OK, superb, there’s a catch. Two catches, really.

The primary: “Catch” may not be the suitable phrase to make use of, as a result of Edwards shouldn’t be a shortstop long-term. Out of 34 gamers who logged 500 or extra innings at quick in 2024, Edwards was thirty third in complete OAA, and lifeless final on a per-inning foundation. Relying on what numbers you utilize, Edwards’ shortstop protection ranges from horrible to ho-ho-ho-rrendous. This can be a second baseman if ever I noticed one.

The second is that Edwards may hit plenty of line drives, however he doesn’t hit the ball onerous in any respect. That’s evident simply from his back-of-the-baseball card stats: a .094 ISO and simply 18 extra-base hits in 70 video games, together with just one dwelling run. However he did hit 5 triples, together with three within the span of 4 at-bats within the third-to-last sport of the season. That was the primary three-triple sport in Marlins historical past and tied the key league document; there have solely been six different such video games prior to now 40 years and no others since 2014.

That’s a pleasant little bit of trivia, nevertheless it distracts from a obligatory little bit of BABIP deconstruction. Edwards posted a BABIP of .398 in 2024; as a quick change hitter who hits plenty of line drives and grounders, you’d count on Edwards to run a excessive BABIP, however you’d need to be Ichiro to even come near sustaining a .398 mark.

And in contrast to Ichiro, Edwards most likely couldn’t win the House Run Derby if he put his thoughts to it. Out of greater than 300 hitters who noticed at the very least 1,000 pitches in 2024, Edwards was tied for final in batted balls with an exit velocity of 100 mph or extra: 14. He additionally outperformed his xBA by 76 factors, which was not solely the biggest discrepancy in baseball amongst hitters with at the very least 100 balls in play, it was the biggest discrepancy in baseball by greater than 40%.

Briefly, I’m taking the beneath on Edwards repeating his .328 batting common and .397 OBP.

What’s a extra sensible expectation, then? Nicely, we’ve obtained projections programs for that kind of factor, and as of this week, there’s not simply Steamer however OOPSY. Once I checked out Edwards’ projections for 2025, I wasn’t blown away, however neither did I despair.

Most of all, I noticed one thing: Arraez was not the primary stocky Marlins second baseman named Luis to place up goofy batting common figures. And I’d been evaluating Edwards to the flawed one. Listed below are Edwards’ projected numbers for 2025, together with the totals for each Arraez and Luis Castillo (the unique one) over their respective Marlins careers.

Let’s say Edwards hits within the excessive .200s, with a low-double-digit stroll price, mainly zero energy, and between 30 and 60 steals a 12 months. We all know precisely what that appears like in a Marlins second baseman, as a result of Castillo did it for the perfect a part of a decade. And whereas he by no means pushed the boundaries of the game the way in which Arraez has, he made three All-Star groups, scored virtually 100 runs per 162 video games in a Marlins uniform, and hit second for a staff that gained the World Sequence. And in case you wanted any additional grip for a 2003 flashback, Edwards even has Jeff Conine’s son enjoying behind him in an outfield nook and hitting decrease within the lineup.

So now all of the Marlins have to do is use this era’s Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, Derrek Lee, Dontrelle Willis, Brad Penny, Juan Pierre…