2025 ZiPS Projections: Tampa Bay Rays

For the twenty first consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this 12 months’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The crew order is chosen by lot, and the subsequent crew up is the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

Coming off a 99-win season, the Rays shed 19 video games final 12 months to complete at 80-82, their first dropping file since 2017. Whereas definitely a few of that loss could be chalked as much as Wander Franco’s troubling authorized points, which have seemingly introduced an finish to his baseball profession, a mix of accidents and few nice surprises additionally performed an enormous half within the Rays’ dropping out of strong competition. Two-thirds of final 12 months’s projected starters, each within the lineup and the rotation, are gone, making this season a little bit of a transition for Tampa Bay.

For a crew that doesn’t spend cash virtually ever, and coming off a massacre of trades of youngish veterans, one may name the lineup projections surprisingly good. There are only some positions that venture to be beneath common, and even these spots aren’t disasters; in reality, each place on the crew tasks for greater than 1 WAR. That’s a testomony to the crew’s participant improvement system, which has to repeatedly restock the cabinets 12 months after 12 months as a result of the group doesn’t have the funds for within the finances to herald established expertise by free company.

Even so, one of the best elements of this lineup are moderately uninspiring. ZiPS tasks the Rays to get no less than 3 WAR from just one place, second base, however I’m extra skeptical than the Depth Charts are about Brandon Lowe’s capacity to remain wholesome. Within the outfield, ZiPS doesn’t assume Jonny DeLuca’s protection shall be sufficient to make up for his bat, and it believes that Christopher Morel is finest suited as a DH, the place he could have one of the best probability to reside as much as his energy potential.

But it surely’s not all unhealthy. ZiPS does like some Rays gamers, simply not those on the highest of the depth chart – but. 4 of the top-eight WAR projections on offense are gamers who haven’t but seized the first jobs at their positions. Carson Williams is hardly surprising, after all, on condition that he’s a top-five prospect. ZiPS thinks his bat is already acceptable for a starter within the center infield, and the coordinate-based defensive system I take advantage of for the minor leagues thought he was among the finest fielding shortstops within the minors. He’s not the one minor leaguer to get defensive plaudits from ZiPS; third baseman Brayden Taylor additionally seems to be elite with the leather-based. He’s not as massive a reputation as Williams, however my colleague Eric Longenhagen gave him a forty five/70 analysis for protection final 12 months, and the Rays have favored his glove sufficient to present him some run at shortstop, one thing you don’t do along with your third baseman when you assume he’s a butcher. Going properly down the prospect lists, catcher Dominic Keegan and heart fielder Chandler Simpson additionally get very promising projections.

Sum all of it up and the Rays have a strong offense with quite a lot of depth and an actual future, however I’m undecided the upside shall be realized this season.

Pitchers

While you evaluate the innings pitched within the ZiPS projections and those listed on our Depth Charts, one conclusion I feel you need to draw is that the Rays are very reliant on getting wholesome innings from Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen. The projections gauge the 2 as probably the most gifted pitchers on the crew proper now, so it’s comprehensible that the Rays would wrestle in the event that they’re with out McClanahan for your complete season and Rasmussen for many of it as a result of their respective main elbow surgical procedures.

That’s to not say ZiPS hates the remainder of the rotation, simply that McClanahan and Rasmussen would change the entire complexion of the employees. Ryan Pepiot was the odd man out in Los Angeles, however he thrived as a strong no. 2 or 3 starter with the Rays, who simply caught him within the rotation and left him there. Taj Bradley confirmed nice progress from his rookie season, getting hit rather a lot much less laborious final 12 months, and Zack Littell confirmed that Tampa hasn’t misplaced its contact for taking different groups’ castoffs and transmogrifying them into above-average starters, nearly immediately.

A shocking variety of different pitchers venture to be about league common as starters: Shane Baz, Joe Rock, Mason Montgomery, and Mike Vasil. Just a few of those guys will seemingly see some vital bullpen innings, particularly Montgomery.

The Rays don’t have the high-end bullpen arms that the Twins or Guardians do, no less than not in response to ZiPS, however they do nonetheless have is a powerful quantity of aid pitching depth. Nearly all of the bullpen tasks to be higher than common, however solely Kevin Kelly and Pete Fairbanks do by a big margin, with the pc not being all that prime on Edwin Uceta. If the projections show correct, it is a strong bullpen, nevertheless it’s in all probability not going to make or break their probabilities of reaching the postseason.

The Rays are an excellent crew, however they seemingly aren’t an ideal one. ZiPS tasks them to complete with 84-88 wins, sufficient to place them again into competition, however maybe not sufficient to truly make the playoffs.

Ballpark graphic is Dan’s mockup of George M. Steinbrenner Subject. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Measurement of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Charts taking part in time. The ultimate crew projections could differ significantly from our Depth Charts taking part in time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever potential. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2025 as a result of harm, and gamers who have been launched in 2024. So sure, when you see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to type a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that solely covers songs by The Smiths, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values may differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and may karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected crew WAR. It is very important do not forget that ZiPS is agnostic about taking part in time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a crew will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both attributable to misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our buddy and former editor. You’ll be able to, nevertheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.