Mets To Proceed Strolling in a Winker Wonderland

When the Mets signed Juan Soto in December, he was, technically talking, filling the opening that Jesse Winker left behind. In fact, that’s a bit like shopping for the Batmobile to interchange an expired bus go. Winker’s biggest energy is drawing walks, and Soto’s profession stroll fee makes Winker’s profession stroll fee seem like Jeff McNeil’s profession stroll fee. Nonetheless, the purpose stands. The Mets misplaced one lefty-batting nook outfielder to free company and changed him with one other. But, on Thursday afternoon, they re-signed Winker anyway. His one-year, $7.5 million contract is pretty easy, however the ramifications for New York’s roster might be far more complicated.

Poor baserunning, depressing protection, and frequent accidents have restricted Winker all through his profession. All the identical, his bat was a serious asset for the Reds from 2017-21. In simply over 1,500 plate appearances with Cincinnati, he slashed .288/.385/.504 with a 132 wRC+. Whereas he thrived at Nice American Ball Park, he made his mark exterior of that hitter’s haven, too, producing an .845 OPS and 126 wRC+ on the highway. He made the All-Star crew in his ultimate season with the Reds, batting .305 with 24 house runs in 110 video games, good for a career-best 3.2 WAR.

The following two seasons, nevertheless, marked a interval of steep decline for Winker. Enjoying for the Mariners and Brewers, he managed simply 0.7 WAR in 2022 and -0.8 in 2023. His agent may level out that again, neck, and knee accidents hampered his efficiency in that point, as did some dangerous luck on balls in play; his xwOBA was practically 30 factors higher than his wOBA, whereas his BABIP was greater than 50 ticks beneath his common from the earlier 5 years. Even so, it could have been greater than honest to fret about his future as a serious leaguer after his dismal 2023 marketing campaign. Coming into 2024, his ZiPS projection was a mere 0.4 WAR in 415 plate appearances, and he was compelled to signal a minor league contract with the Nationals lower than two weeks earlier than spring coaching started.

Again to full well being, Winker rebounded in Washington. Whereas he wasn’t an influence risk like he’d been in his Reds heyday, he knocked 18 doubles and 11 house runs, giving him a middle-of-the-pack .162 ISO. His BABIP was again up above .300, and his 14.0% stroll fee ranked fifth amongst certified batters (as of his ultimate day with the Nats). All in all, he put up a 125 wRC+ and 1.2 WAR in 101 video games.

This was sufficient to pique the Mets’ curiosity forward of the commerce deadline. Nevertheless, after Washington despatched him to New York, Winker wasn’t the productive hitter that the Mets thought they had been getting after they acquired him. Nicely, not less than not throughout the common season, when Winker was little greater than alternative stage together with his new crew. All of the extra disappointing, he was set as much as thrive with the Mets: He had the platoon benefit virtually each time he got here to the plate. Whereas Washington used him as an on a regular basis participant, New York shielded him from southpaws; he confronted simply 4 left-handed pitchers over the ultimate two months of the season. Nonetheless, his 97 wRC+ with the Mets was a lot nearer to his profession mark towards lefties (88) than righties (129).

The issue was rooted in Winker’s strategy on the plate. With the Nationals, he ran that aforementioned 14.0% stroll fee and struck out simply 22.2% of the time. After the commerce, he lowered his strikeout fee to 17.1%, which could’ve been factor, besides that his stroll fee additionally dropped approach down, to 7.8%. With the Mets, Winker swung extra typically and made extra contact, particularly on pitches within the strike zone. His Z-Swing% (per Statcast) jumped from 60.5% to 70.4%, whereas his Z-Contact% jumped from 85.5% to 91.2%. This wouldn’t have been an issue if he crushed lots of these further balls he put in play, however, naturally, he didn’t.

So, why did Winker out of the blue change his strategy at a time when issues had been going effectively? I’d posit the Mets seen that he was holding again on too many hittable pitches over the primary 4 months of the season and let him know that was the case after the commerce. In response to Robert Orr’s calculations from his Harm leaderboard, Winker was higher than the common hitter at figuring out hittable pitches yearly from 2020-23. But, with the Nationals this previous season, his Hittable Pitch Take fee put him within the backside third of the league. After he began swinging at extra strikes with the Mets, he rose again as much as the 66th percentile. The issue, nevertheless, was that he sacrificed one other crucial ability within the course of. Winker’s selectivity fee — Orr’s metric that reveals how typically a participant avoids swinging at dangerous pitches — fell from the 73rd percentile as a Nationwide to the thirty fifth percentile as a Met. All that’s to say, Winker swung at extra good pitches, however he additionally swung at extra dangerous ones, and he didn’t do sufficient harm towards good pitches to compensate for his lack of manufacturing towards the dangerous ones. Finally, his hard-hit and barrel charges had been decrease with the Mets than they had been with the Nationals, as had been his wOBA and xwOBA on contact.

This raises one other query: Why would the Mets need Winker again if their efforts to enhance his strategy went so poorly? Maybe they assume he simply wants a little bit extra time to reap the rewards. In spite of everything, 129 plate appearances is nothing. Aaron Decide was nonetheless hitting beneath the Mendoza Line with an OPS within the mid-.700s by his 129th plate appearances final season. Fortunately for our functions, now we have a straightforward solution to improve the pattern measurement of Winker’s 2024 season with the Mets: Embrace the playoffs, as Winker took an extra 32 plate appearances in October. He continued to swing at strikes at the same fee, however he used these swings to document a number of massive hits, together with two triples and a house run. He additionally drew seven walks, in comparison with simply 4 strikeouts. For those who mix these numbers with Winker’s common season stats as a Met, you get a ten.6% stroll fee, a 16.1% strikeout fee, and a .341 wOBA. Much more promising is his .353 xwOBA, notably greater than his .335 xwOBA with the Nationals. Hastily, it makes much more sense why the Mets determined to maintain this man round.

It’s far too quickly to say if Winker’s new strategy will work in a bigger pattern measurement. Nonetheless, it’s not arduous to see why the Mets assume he’s value an extended look. In a best-case state of affairs, he might be an much more productive hitter than he was general in 2024. And if this new strategy doesn’t befit him going ahead, he doesn’t must be something greater than the hitter he was in Washington to be invaluable on a one-year, $7.5 million deal. In spite of everything, the Mets will proceed to defend him from left-handed pitching, and his observe document towards righties is powerful:

So, that’s Winker. However this signing is an iceberg – and sarcastically, it’s the uncommon sort of iceberg that isn’t so good for a polar bear. At first look, that is only a 1.0- to 1.5-WAR participant signing a short-term deal commensurate together with his skills. But, there’s much more to it than what you see on the floor. When SNY’s Andy Martino first reported the Winker signing, he added that the Mets are actually making ready for all times after Pete Alonso. Certainly, whereas nobody might argue that Winker is a direct alternative for the All-Star first baseman, there’s a connection between this signing and the Mets’ presumably giving up on Alonso when you comply with the path of dominoes far sufficient.

With Soto, Brandon Nimmo, Jose Siri, and Tyrone Taylor to man the outfield, the Mets are probably to make use of Winker as their main DH towards right-handed pitching. Nevertheless, he can nonetheless play the nook outfield if he must; he spent 95 video games on the grass final season, together with 27 with New York. So, within the occasion of an harm to one of many crew’s different outfielders, Winker can fill in. Meaning the Mets are much less more likely to ask McNeil to play the outfield in 2025. As a substitute, he can ideally play second base virtually day by day. So long as McNeil is protecting the keystone, the Mets gained’t want any of their younger infielders at second base, subsequently permitting Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña, and Ronny Mauricio to focus their efforts on third. If simply one in all them, or some mixture of the three, can competently cowl the new nook, Mark Vientos will have the ability to play first base full-time. Lengthy story quick, Winker improves the outfield depth, which not directly improves the infield depth, which ought to permit Vientos to formally change Alonso at first.

One other side to the iceberg is how this all impacts Starling Marte, whose Gold Glove years are lengthy behind him. In 170 video games within the outfield over the previous two years, he has gathered -13 DRS, -14 OAA, and a -12 FRV. In the meantime, neither ZiPS nor Steamer sees him as far more than a league-average bat. As a righty hitter, he might theoretically platoon with Winker at DH. In spite of everything, he posted a formidable 141 wRC+ towards left-handed pitching final 12 months. But, even with the platoon benefit, Marte won’t be a powerful sufficient hitter to warrant the reps. Whereas he has had optimistic platoon splits the final three years, he had reverse platoon splits yearly from 2014-21. In different phrases, he’s hardly a assured lefty masher. Quite the opposite, ZiPS initiatives him for a .698 OPS towards lefties and a .713 OPS towards righties in 2025. Even when the Mets had been prepared to offer a roster spot to the quick aspect of a DH platoon, Marte in all probability wouldn’t be that man.

The ultimate part of the iceberg is what the Mets do subsequent. Steve Cohen’s pockets are already deep, but when the Mets aren’t going to offer Alonso a multi-year contract, and if they’ll get somebody to tackle any of Marte’s remaining wage, they’ll solely have extra to spend. With a projected payroll nonetheless $49 million beneath final 12 months’s ultimate tally and a luxurious tax payroll nonetheless $17 million beneath the highest penalty threshold, the Mets stay main gamers to look at because the offseason rolls on.