Do me favor. Don’t think about buying and selling Mookie Betts. Who would do this, anyway? As a substitute, think about Mookie Betts buying and selling Mookie Betts. That’s to say, think about Mookie Betts deciding to commerce the present model of himself for a youthful model of himself. Most of us would make that commerce in a second – my youthful self had a lot hair and was already studying at a fifth-grade stage! – however why would Mookie Betts make that commerce? Coming into 2024, he had simply put up a seven-win season whereas working a 166 wRC+, the second-best batting line of what ought to find yourself as a Corridor of Fame profession. That’s the perfect self, proper there. No trades vital.
From afar, Betts’s 2024 season was of a bit with those that preceded it. He put up his eighth-career 4-WAR season and ran a 141 wRC+, virtually precisely in keeping with his profession mark. However have a look at this:
Go forward and ignore the brief 2020 season, when Betts posted a low pull fee. All of the numbers go up towards the second half of the graph earlier than dipping again down in 2024. In a few main methods, Betts appeared so much much less like what we’ve seen on this decade, and much more like what we noticed again within the first few seasons of his profession. He went again to hanging out much less, pulling the ball much less, and hitting the ball considerably softer. In case that graph isn’t clear to you, let me present you an identical numbers, this time cut up up into three chunks: 2014 by 2017, 2018 by 2023, after which simply the 2024 season.
See the chunks? If these three metrics — Betts’ strikeout fee, hard-hit fee, and pull fee — are ringing some bells, it’s most likely as a result of I wrote about them again in Might. On the time, I seen that pitchers had been doing their best possible to pitch Betts away, away, away. Nicely, that development continued all through the season, and it actually appears attainable that it explains lots of these numbers. Persevering with with our theme, let’s take this in chunks. We’ll speak in regards to the strikeout fee first as a result of it’s the least dramatic.
Betts has by no means been something however glorious at avoiding strikeouts. Nevertheless, he had an 11% strikeout fee in 2024, and even by his personal ridiculous requirements, that was one thing. It was tied for one of the best mark of his profession, it represented an almost 30% drop-off from his 2023 fee, and it put him within the 98th percentile of all main league hitters. The factor is, his plate self-discipline didn’t change all that dramatically. He noticed fewer pitches within the zone, which is an effective method to keep away from strikeouts, however he additionally had one of many increased chase charges of his profession. The large distinction was that he swung extra typically on the primary pitch and he recorded one of many highest contact charges of his profession. That’s somewhat odd, as a result of chasing extra usually results in whiffing extra. Nevertheless, seeing extra exterior pitches may result in extra contact, as the perfect contact level for an out of doors pitch is additional behind residence plate, which provides the batter extra time to react. As I discussed, all of those numbers had been inside Betts’ profession norms, however between the aggression, particularly on the primary pitch, and the upper chase fee, it appears secure to say that Betts was trying to put the ball in play a bit extra typically.
On the similar time, Betts’ contact high quality took an unlimited dip. His hard-hit fee fell from 48.5% in 2023 all the way in which to 39.5%. That also left him pretty near the league common, however it was one of many greatest drops in baseball, and the underlying numbers are even uglier. Betts’ ninetieth percentile exit velocity and his greatest pace (which throws out the weakest 50% of batted balls after which takes the typical of the remaining 50%) represented profession lows. The ninetieth percentile mark put him within the twenty seventh percentile. This isn’t the path by which you need to be trending.
As I famous again in Might, Betts adjusted to the skin pitches by organising nearer to the plate. That may make it troublesome to hit the within pitch with authority, as a result of you have got much less time to activate it, however Betts’ contact high quality was down throughout the board. Right here’s his hard-hit fee on pitches within the zone:
The inside third undoubtedly noticed the largest drop-off, however his hard-hit fee was down on pitches out over the plate too. That brings us to our third and ultimate chunk. Betts ran a 34.3% pull fee, the bottom of his profession and at the least 10 share factors decrease than his fee in every of the three earlier seasons. Listed below are spray warmth maps for 2023 and 2024. Every little thing’s shifting away from left discipline and towards proper discipline. It’s additionally shifting away from deep fly balls.
Betts has by no means been the strongest participant within the league, however he’s all the time hit the ball onerous, and he remodeled himself into one of many sport’s true masters at turning on the within pitch and ripping it down the road or over the fence. In 2024, nevertheless, he traded that tremendous energy for the power to spray line drives to all fields. It actually looks like this was a response to the way in which he was being pitched. In any case, it’s fairly onerous to yank a pitch on the skin nook down the left discipline line. And in case you’re not seeing pitches you can yank to the pull facet, then it now not is sensible to construct your complete strategy round that purpose.
I don’t need to overreact to a single season, not to mention one by which Betts produced his typical incredible offensive numbers — particularly contemplating that Betts missed practically two months with a fractured hand. That is a type of instances once I actually want we had bat monitoring information stretching again during the last a number of years. Betts had a mean bat pace of 69.1 mph in 2024, which put him in simply the 14th percentile, and I want there have been a method to know whether or not that was a giant drop-off from earlier seasons. He turned 32 final 12 months, and simply Tuesday, Tom Tango revealed an growing older curve that makes it seem like there’s a dramatic bat pace drop-off beginning at 32. Should you have a look at Betts’ spray charts and his contact charges, you get the sense that he simply reworked his strategy so as to profit from the pitches he was seeing. Nevertheless, the exit velocity numbers are such an excessive departure from his earlier seasons. To a point, they’re most likely a symptom of that bigger adjustment, however Betts’ bat may be slower than it was.