No staff is a much bigger bummer in faculty basketball than Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights’ most up-to-date failure got here Monday night time, a 75-63 dwelling defeat vs. Wisconsin to drop them to 8-7. It is the newest letdown from a bunch that, heading into the season, had many otherwise-uninterested observers immediately curious, for 2 tantalizing causes: Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey.
Bailey and Harper, ranked No. 2 and three within the Class of 2024, picked a spot that had by no means earlier than landed five-star expertise. It was a uncommon Cinderella-type recruiting story on the high-major stage. It additionally ensured Rutgers could be fascinating counterprogramming to loads of the extra skilled groups succeeding on the backs of veteran gamers, many by way of the portal.
Effectively, we’re virtually midway by the season and the gambit has been a bust.
After lacking the earlier recreation, Harper (21.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.5 apg) semi-returned from illness Monday. He sat a lot of the second half, sapped from having the flu, and helplessly watched from the bench as Bailey (19.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg) did not spark a comeback in opposition to a significantly better, a lot happier, rather more assured Wisconsin squad.
“These two are extremely gifted younger males with very vibrant futures within the NBA however they do not attempt onerous defensively,” a high-major assistant who confronted Rutgers this season advised CBS Sports activities. “In faculty, any time any staff is constructed round two freshmen and people freshmen do not essentially have the maturity or intangibles of what goes into successful but, it may affect your staff. That is not saying they’re unhealthy younger males, they only do not have what it takes to win but.”
Rutgers was presupposed to be one of many It Groups this yr. Whereas few thought it might rise to the extent of Last 4 contender, many believed it might/could be an element within the Large Ten and show related main into the NCAAs. As an alternative, Steve Pikiell is overseeing one of the disappointing — and vexing — groups within the sport. With one more loss Princeton dwelling L to Kennesaw State, Rutgers is not even a bubble staff. That is what can occur whenever you change your template and depend on freshmen after having by no means carried out so earlier than, as Pikiell is chargeable for now.
“It isn’t a shock,” the high-major assistant mentioned. “I am not shocked by them not being nice — in any respect. … You do not have to protect everybody else. From a technical preparation standpoint, you do not have to overly defend everybody else. The sport plan is: How do you cease these two guys? They common a mixed 5 assists. They move out of necessity.”
Bailey and Harper common 40.2 factors mixed, which is 10 extra (30.3) than RU’s subsequent 5 highest minutes-getters (Jeremiah Williams, Jordan Derkack, Lathan Sommerville, Jamichael Davis and Zach Martini). Bailey and Harper have tried 416 pictures, whereas the subsequent 5 have taken 71 fewer (345). Applications that not often (if ever) land blue-chip prospects sometimes do not fare nicely after getting once-in-a-lifetime recruiting courses. Rutgers appears like the newest instance.
Harper and Bailey are clearly ultra-talented dynamos, which makes this all of the extra irritating. Few duos in faculty basketball are extra statistically impactful but, mockingly, their stats do not correspond to numerous successful. Harper lately logged the primary triple-double by an RU participant since 1983, among the best video games in Rutgers historical past. Final week, when Harper was out in opposition to Indiana, Bailey additionally put up one of many faculty’s greatest performances when he had a career-high 39 factors, plus eight rebounds and 4 blocks in a loss at Indiana.
“Dylan Harper’s a [expletive] monster off center pick-and-roll,” an opposing coach advised CBS Sports activities. “However they don’t seem to be onerous to protect. They do not run round. It isn’t like 4 or 5 folks contact the ball and really feel concerned. If you wish to be a great offensive staff it’s a must to weaponize the fellows round them.”
This is not LSU with Ben Simmons, Georgia with Anthony Edwards or Washington with Markelle Fultz. These applications (which not often land top-five gamers) solely had one elite NBA choose. Rutgers has two. The one different staff within the dialog to have two lottery picks this season is Duke. The Blue Devils are 13-2 and rank No. 1 at KenPom.com with the very best protection within the nation — whereas beginning three freshmen, led by Cooper Flagg.
After years of successful in a rugged defensive mould, Rutgers’ resistance on that finish of the ground has wilted. Pikiell in impact swapped out a defense-first tradition for 2 star freshmen scorers and it is resulted in arguably probably the most underwhelming story within the sport by the primary half of the season.
If this retains up, it should go from underwhelming to historic in its ineptitude.
Presuming Harper and Bailey wind up being drafted as at the moment projected, if Rutgers fails to make March Insanity it will likely be the primary staff ever to take action with two top-five NBA Draft picks in the identical season. They’d even be the primary faculty within the trendy period to signal two top-five highschool prospects and fail to qualify for the Large Dance. Increasing it additional, based on Sports activities Reference, solely three groups ever haven’t gone dancing regardless of having two (or extra) gamers as top-10 picks that very same yr. Should you suppose it is occurred prior to now 10-15 years, as one-and-done tradition turned a defining character trait of faculty basketball, you would be unsuitable. (One instance is 2012-13 Kentucky, which did have two top-10 picks on the staff however they weren’t drafted in the identical yr. Nerlens Noel was within the 2013 draft, whereas Willie Cauley-Stein wasn’t taken till 2015.)
The one three groups to have two top-10 picks in the identical yr and never make the event all got here lengthy earlier than the 64-team event period, with all three being good-to-great groups. Rutgers is in a class unto itself.
- 1972-73 Minnesota (Jim Brewer, No. 2; Ron Behagen, No. 7; went 21-5, completed second in Large Ten)
- 1953-54 Western Kentucky (Tom Marshall, No. 8; Jack Turner, No. 9; went 29-3 and performed within the NIT)
- 1952-53 Seton Corridor (Walter Dukes, No. 2; Richie Regan, No. 7; the 31-2 Pirates additionally performed within the NIT)
Sometimes, when you’ve acquired super-high-end NBA expertise at multiple place, you are qualifying for the Large Dance — with loads of room to spare. That is not the case in Piscataway. Rutgers is as compelling as it’s oftentimes underwhelming.
“In the event that they did miss the event, it would not be attributable to Xs and Os,” a Large Ten coach advised CBS Sports activities. “Steve and his workers know how one can coach. It could be extra to do with age and returning expertise of the roster. Earlier than the portal there would have been a number of returners that know their system and have competed within the Large Ten. (Cliff) Omoruyi is an ideal instance. Having some Large Ten-experienced gamers, with information of how they do issues at Rutgers alongside them, would permit their maturation to be a bit extra seamless into studying what it takes to win in faculty basketball on the Energy 5 stage.”
Whiffing on the tourney could be greater than a missed alternative; it might go away an unlucky taint on Bailey’s and Harper’s fleeting one and solely yr with Rutgers.
“I believe Harper is about nearly as good because it will get,” one other coach who confronted Rutgers this season advised CBS Sports activities. “Each draft potential and faculty affect. However Bailey is inconsistent. He is an unwilling passer and a disinterested defender and his shot choice is so unhealthy that if he is not making ridiculous pictures they’re in hassle. They do not have sufficient taking pictures round these guys. And the fellows that may shoot are unhealthy defenders. The blokes that do defend cannot shoot.”
You watch Rutgers and also you see a staff void of identification apart from being The Group That Was Supposed To Be Good. Who’s the chief? Are Harper and Bailey shopping for into Pikiell’s playbook? Watching Rutgers play, it is onerous to make that case. The supporting forged has to play a much bigger position as quickly as doable to offer this staff a shot. It isn’t over, however the change must be fast, beginning with Thursday’s dwelling likelihood in opposition to 11-4 Purdue.
“They’re gifted sufficient to show it round too,” one assistant mentioned. “I am unsure how a lot enjoyable guys are having on the staff. It is onerous to win when guys aren’t having enjoyable. This cannot be simple for Pikiell.”
Tennessee was destroyed by Florida. Here is what historical past reveals in regards to the NCAAT fates of the final undefeated staff
We solely made it till Jan. 7 earlier than the ultimate unbeaten misplaced, and boy did Tennessee lose Tuesday. Florida‘s 73-43 bludgeoning of the Vols was the third-largest margin of victory in opposition to a No. 1 staff ever. The blowout was so shocking, it would recalibrate some of us’ opinions on UT, however take note 2013-14 UConn wasn’t almost nearly as good as these Vols appear to be, and that group additionally misplaced a recreation by 30-plus earlier than finally successful all of it.
As for shedding the final unbeaten earlier than the halfway level of the season, that is turn into the development. For a very long time, in most years, we might no less than get to the again half of January earlier than the final staff lastly acquired gotten. Lately, the times surrounding New Yr’s Day has turn into the touchdown zone for the ultimate undefeated to fall.
Margin apart, here is my semi-annual refresher on what the info reveals for the staff that takes its first loss final. Tennessee has a number of the greatest odds to win all of it in 2025. Going again to 1991-92, 5 groups prior to now 33 seasons to be the final unbeaten have gone on to win the nationwide title. That is 15% — which is a wholesome shot vs. the remainder of the game.
The final undefeated squad virtually at all times bears out to be superb, with a stable likelihood of proving to be nice by the tip of the season.
Should you return to 1977, the yr after IU ran the desk, Kentucky in 1978 is one other staff that received the title in the identical season because it was the final to lose.
Since 1991-92 …
- The typical document of the ultimate unbeaten earlier than taking its first defeat: 18-0
- Since ’91-92, the common date for the ultimate undefeated to fall: Feb. 4
- 5 of the previous eight seasons have seen the final unbeaten fall previous to Jan. 13
- First losses come away from the final unbeaten’s dwelling venue roughly 75% of the time
- Encouraging: Not accounting for 2020 and SMU‘s ineligible season, 12 of the 36 groups to lose final on the newest date (33.3%) reached the Last 4
- Excluding 2020, solely two groups have been the ultimate to lose and never qualify for the NCAA Match: Clemson in 2007 and New Mexico in 2023 (2016 SMU would have made it if not for a postseason ban)
- Eradicating Clemson, New Mexico and SMU from the equation, the common variety of NCAA Match wins since 1992 for the final groups to lose is three. Solely 5 occasions did a staff to lose final deepest into the season fail to win a event recreation. The newest was USC in 2022
- The commonest exit for the final unbeaten staff is the Candy 16 (9 occasions)
- Common ultimate document for the final unbeaten staff: 30-5
Tennessee does not chart as the very best staff in faculty basketball, nevertheless it’s nonetheless on the brief listing of greatest groups. Rick Barnes’ difficulty for many of his profession has been inadequacy in March. His groups usually, although not at all times, fail to carry out to seed expectation. Final yr’s staff met it: No. 2 Tennessee fell to 1-seed Purdue within the Elite Eight. Now we’ll see if the trials of perhaps the hardest convention ever in faculty basketball strengthen or scale back Tennessee’s will to be championship-worthy in March.
Getty Pictures
Ranked groups to be cautious of in March
If Tennessee’s loss to Florida makes you pause, I get it, however there are different groups with a quantity subsequent to their names which might be extra apparent candidates for suspicion. Virtually each January we get a staff or three that work their option to good information and sit well-perched within the AP ballot regardless of disguising their high quality. As an example, a yr in the past, Kansas was ranked No. 3 with a 13-1 document. However predictive metrics at that stage universally had KU outdoors of the highest 10, slotting the Jayhawks wherever between thirteenth and twentieth regardless of 60 Related Press voters logging them collectively as one of many three greatest groups in faculty basketball.
Seems, as typically is the case, that the predictive fashions have been appropriate. Kansas, which had little depth, wound up with a No. 5 seed and did not make the Candy 16, barely beating Samford within the first spherical. That in thoughts — and acknowledging that circumstances are clearly totally different on a team-by-team foundation — listed below are a couple of groups whose rankings within the AP ballot this week do not correspond with the likes of KenPom, Torvik, EvanMiya, the NET, and so forth. You would possibly wish to fade ’em come March.
No. 15 Oregon (13-2): 27 at KenPom, 31 at Miya, 32 in BPI
No. 17 Oklahoma (13-1): 42 at KenPom, 46 at Miya, 51 at Torvik
No. 19 Memphis (12-3): 30 at Miya, 35 in BPI, 38 at Torvik
Oregon’s largest difficulty is the nitty gritty of its its tempo-free statistical profile has it rating between 79 and 193 in all measures/percentages.
For Oklahoma, it is non-con schedule was among the many worst within the sport, plus its defensive rebounding is perhaps the worst within the SEC, as is its 2-point area objective protection (54.5%).
And Memphis’ downside is rating close to the underside of all projected NCAA tourney groups in turnover price, along with shedding the rebounding battle in virtually each recreation it is performed.
@ me
Discover me on Bluesky or X/Twitter and drop a Q anytime!
Wisconsin was picked twelfth by Large Ten media within the preseason nevertheless it will not be wherever close to that seed come Large Ten tourney time. Blackwell has been one in every of my favourite sophomore surprises. The 6-foot-4 combo guard with cool really feel is averaging 15.8 factors, 4.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists and put up 53 factors in UW’s most up-to-date two video games in opposition to Iowa and Rutgers. Tonje’s been a portal plus on a stage few anticipated, however Blackwell’s ascension has been the largest issue in Bucky trying like an early season Large Ten contender, significantly after scoring 116 factors final week and setting a Large Ten document with 21 3-pointers within the domination over Iowa. Wisconsin’s cracked 100 twice this season, the primary time that is occurred since 1995-96.
That is in reference to Minnesota, which blew a possible dwelling win vs. Ohio State Monday night time by fouling up two with lower than six seconds remaining in time beyond regulation. (The Gophers went on to lose 89-88 in 2OT.) The Gophers, who have been pummeled with portal losses, are comfortably the worst staff within the Large Ten a yr after Ben Johnson acquired this program to 19 wins. A change could be inevitable.
I believe North Carolina works its option to a single-digit seed (and did earlier than Tuesday’s cruise-control win over SMU) however I get your level. If I needed to guess the mid-major staff that will get closest to an at-large bid however finally will get shipped to the NIT … Boise State. (Or VCU.)
My largest “purchase” staff that is ranked decrease than I believe it must be is Dayton. The Flyers are 11-4 with two Quad 1 wins, don’t have any Q3/4 losses and doubtless will wind up successful the Atlantic 10 and get a single-digit seed once more. The teaching and roster appear too sturdy. Dayton ranks outdoors the highest 50 in all predictive mainstream metrics however I believe can be between 25-35 come Choice Sunday.
I’ve not. Nearly yearly somebody asks me what my gotta-get-to spots are, and virtually yearly I can test one off the listing. I might EASILY offer you 20 spots I am nonetheless anxious to cowl a recreation at, however my present prime 5 faculty basketball arenas I most wish to get to:
- The Pit (New Mexico)
- State Farm Heart (Illinois)
- Hilton Coliseum (Iowa State)
- The Barn (Minnesota)
- The Spectrum (Utah State)
Norlander’s information + nuggets
• Georgia’s 82-69 win over Kentucky has the Bulldogs at 13-2, their greatest begin since 2001-02 (additionally the final time they received an NCAA Match recreation).
• I assumed it was quietly essential for Indiana to beat Rutgers at dwelling after which win over Penn State (at The Palestra) prior to now two video games. Shedding both of these would’ve been a troubling hiccup to begin Large Ten play in 2025, however as an alternative IU is 12-3 heading into its dwelling recreation vs. USC and exhibiting it will probably win with out Malik Reneau (who can be again shortly). Oumar Ballo and Mackenzie Mgbako every flourished. Some irritating losses to return, however this staff is making the NCAA Match.
• Trivia Time! With Tennessee shedding, have you learnt who holds the longest successful streak? It is UC San Diego. The Tritons (13-2) have received 11 in a row and can problem UC Irvine within the Large West.
• Good be aware from faculty basketball statistician Jared Berson: Texas internet hosting No. 2 Auburn and No. 1 Tennessee in successive video games this week marks the primary time since 1997 {that a} staff performed the highest two groups back-to-back in the identical week. Again then, it was Missouri that break up in opposition to No. 1 Kansas and No. 2 Wake Forest. Longhorns have been too haphazard Tuesday vs. Auburn, now they should form up in opposition to a ticked off Vols staff in a couple of days. Uh-oh?
• Tuesday was well-stocked with intriguing matchups, however the outcome that I believe is an indication of issues to return: Arizona pushing previous West Virginia with little resistance in a 75-56 victory. ICYMI, I wrote in regards to the Wildcats lately and their pivot into 2025.
• Take the time to learn this story from The Athletic. Author Sam Blum shadowed Mississippi Valley State for 3 days again in November (however the story simply pubbed) to get a tangible thought of what it means to be a low-major HBCU attempting to hold on within the rigors of Division I.
• Issues are dire for the ACC: 12 of the 18 groups within the convention rank worse than 73rd within the NET. Even going again to the problematic period of the RPI, I can not ever keep in mind an influence convention having a lot useless weight.
• Our Isaac Trotter trots out the nationwide title contenders and stacks them by tiers. He is acquired 11 on the highest shelf.
• The Warmth Verify’s Brian Rauf has quietly been a persistently good faculty hoops author for a couple of years now. Take a look at his newest that places Kam Jones and Eric Dixon‘s excellent seasons into perspective.
• Issues are regarding sufficient for Syracuse that somebody on workers (gotta be an alum, proper?) at The Onion is chiming in.
• We’re every week away from the midpoint of the season. That in thoughts, my prime 5 for nationwide coach of the yr as of this morning, in no order, are: Bruce Pearl, TJ Otzelberger, Mark Pope, Jerrod Calhoun and Rick Barnes.