The next article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing have a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Corridor of Fame poll. For an in depth introduction to this yr’s poll, and different candidates within the collection, use the instrument above; an introduction to JAWS could be discovered right here. For a tentative schedule, and an opportunity to fill out a Corridor of Fame poll for our crowdsourcing mission, see right here. All WAR figures consult with the Baseball Reference model until in any other case indicated.
With a basis that centered upon the Corridor of Fame triumvirate of Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, and John Smoltz, the Braves dominated the NL West after which the NL East, reaching the postseason yearly from 1991–2005 save for the ’94 strike season. Nothing lasts endlessly, although, and as Glavine after which Maddux departed in free company, the staff inevitably needed to retool. Among the many centerpieces of the subsequent wave of Braves stars was one virtually grown in their very own yard, Brian McCann.
A lefty-swinging backstop with wealthy baseball bloodlines, a robust arm, and a strong bat, McCann was simply 21 years previous when he debuted with the Braves in June 2005. Over his first eight full seasons, he made seven All-Star groups and helped Atlanta to a few postseason appearances, although the staff’s success wasn’t almost on par with the previous dynasty. Whereas McCann’s footwork and pitch framing wasn’t initially as polished as that of Russell Martin (who debuted with the Dodgers as a 23-year-old in 2006), he too developed into one of many recreation’s elite framers, that whereas offering stronger offense than his West Coast counterpart. Alongside the best way, he additionally developed a considerably doubtful repute as an enforcer of the unwritten guidelines, due to high-profile incidents involving José Fernández and Carlos Gómez in September 2013, although each gamers smoothed issues over with McCann.
In December 2013, Martin left the Braves to signal the most important free agent contract ever given to a catcher at that time, a five-year, $85 million take care of the Yankees. The transfer didn’t have fairly the impression of Martin’s jumps to Pittsburgh after which Toronto (the place he netted a contract simply shy of McCann’s), however McCann remained productive and common. In November 2016, he was traded to the Astros, whose director of analysis and improvement, Mike Quick, had revealed “Eradicating the Masks,” the landmark 2011 Baseball Prospectus article that constructed on earlier analysis to quantify the worth of pitch framing and in so doing, revolutionized the trade. McCann grew to become the beginning backstop on a staff that gained the World Sequence in 2017, although that championship was tainted by subsequent revelations relating to the staff’s unlawful digital signal stealing. McCann performed two extra seasons, one in Houston and one in Atlanta, earlier than calling it a profession.
Aside from Baseball Prospectus’ WARP (the unique foundation for JAWS), not one of the main worth metrics integrated pitch framing into their calculations till FanGraphs launched its personal methodology within the spring of 2019. That replace retroactively added framing to fWAR going again to 2008. Whereas Sports activities Information Options’ Defensive Runs Saved does observe what it calls “strike zone runs” (RszC), Baseball Reference doesn’t embody them in its WAR calculations. Since framing has been proven to be so impactful — with a lot wider spreads from high to backside than blocking or throwing out baserunners — I imagine we’re doing Twenty first-century candidates a disservice if we fail to include this significant space into our evaluation. Thus, for this profile and that of fellow first-year candidate Russell Martin, I’ve used a FanGraphs-based model of WAR, one that comes with BP’s framing metric (BP Fram) for the years earlier than 2008, as the primary worth metric, and frJAWS because the Corridor health metric. As with Martin, this makes a major distinction in understanding McCann’s profession, and likewise these of his framing friends:
Brian McCann Values, With and With out Pitch Framing
Season | DRS | bWAR | BP FrmR | WARP | FRM | fWAR | Statcast | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | -2 | 0.3 | -2.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | |||||
2006 | -1 | 4.3 | -17.4 | 1.8 | 4.3 | |||||
2007 | -5 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | |||||
2008 | 8 | 5.5 | 23.1 | 7.5 | 34.5 | 8.3 | ||||
2009 | -5 | 3.2 | 29.4 | 6.3 | 25.2 | 6.0 | ||||
2010 | -1 | 3.6 | 22.8 | 6.0 | 17.6 | 6.0 | ||||
2011 | -4 | 2.6 | 31.2 | 7.2 | 29.7 | 6.5 | ||||
2012 | 2 | 1.1 | 26.7 | 5.0 | 26.2 | 3.9 | ||||
2013 | 1 | 2.8 | 12.9 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 3.3 | ||||
2014 | 3 | 2.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 12.2 | 3.2 | ||||
2015 | 1 | 2.8 | -4.2 | 2.3 | -1.2 | 2.8 | ||||
2016 | -8 | 0.8 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0 | |||
2017 | -14 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 9.7 | 2.5 | 0 | |||
2018 | 5 | 1.0 | -2.9 | 0.4 | -3.0 | 0.3 | -2 | |||
2019 | -2 | 0.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 8 | |||
Totals | -22 | 32.1 | 145.1 | 53.5 | 165.5 | 52.1 | 6 |
DRS = Defensive Runs Saved (doesn’t embody pitch framing). BP FrmR = Baseball Prospectus Framing Runs. Statcast = Statcast Framing Runs. Daring = values embody pitch framing. Yellow = ranked amongst high 10 in league.
Heading into the ultimate yr of their careers, the modern knowledge confirmed McCann and Martin to be almost inseparable, value-wise. Subsequent tweaks to WAR by way of framing, blocking, and throwing have created a bit extra daylight between the 2, with McCann now behind an entire cluster of latest catchers in frJAWS. Whereas I’m planning to incorporate Martin on my poll, I’m a bit much less sure about McCann, however the actuality that each could battle to achieve the 5% essential to retain eligibility has entered into my pondering as effectively.
2025 BBWAA Candidate: Brian McCann
Participant | Profession WAR | Peak WAR | JAWS |
---|---|---|---|
Brian McCann (through Baseball Reference) | 32.0 | 24.6 | 28.3 |
Brian McCann (through FanGraphs*) | 50.6 | 37.2 | 43.9 |
Avg. HOF C | 53.6 | 34.9 | 44.3 |
H | HR | AVG/OBP/SLG | OPS+ |
1,590 | 282 | .262/.337/.452 | 110 |
* contains pitch-framing knowledge from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus
Brian Michael McCann was born on February 20, 1984 in Athens, Georgia to folks Howard and Sherry McCann. Sherry was a registered nurse at Athens Regional Hospital, whereas Howard (b. 1956) was a former Twins eighth-round draft choose (1974) who as a substitute selected to play at Gulf Coast Group School, Mississippi State College (the place he was mates with teammate Buck Showalter), and with the Austin Sunbursts of the New York-Penn League (1978).
On the time Brian was born, Howard was an assistant coach on the College of Georgia. After serving to to recruit a staff that gained the 1990 School World Sequence, Howard moved the household to West Virginia and took over as the top coach at Marshall College. Upon his firing in 1995, the household moved to Duluth, Georgia, the place Howard opened Windward Baseball Academy. Older son Brad McCann (b. 1982) was drafted by the Marlins within the sixth spherical out of Clemson in 2004 and performed 4 seasons within the minors.
“We have been all the time on the subject,” Brian advised the New York Instances’ Tyler Kepner in 2011. “My childhood recollections, a giant portion of these are watching my dad coach. I simply cherished to be across the recreation. I cherished every part about it.”
Although each of his sons pursued baseball, and although he was tireless when it got here to serving to them, Howard was not overbearing. “He by no means made us do something. He by no means made us exit and take batting observe; he by no means made us go take floor balls. Dad did such an ideal job with letting us determine it out,” Brian advised ESPN’s Chris Smith in 2007. Duluth Excessive Faculty coach Bobby Hyperlink advised Smith that in Brian’s video games, Howard stayed out of the best way, sitting on a stump behind the middle subject fence.
Earlier than highschool, Brian primarily performed second base and idolized Tony Gwynn, however he additionally caught as early as age eight. By way of the Newark Star-Ledger’s Andy McCullough in 2013:
Howie had studied his son on the soccer subject, and famous the distinction between his minimal foot pace and his prowess as a goalie. “He simply took to catching like a fish to water,” Howie mentioned.
Thought-about one of many high catchers forward of the 2002 draft, Brian was chosen by the Braves within the second spherical; one other Gwinnett County excessive schooler, Jeff Francoeur, was the staff’s first-round choose. Although McCann had dedicated to play for the College of Alabama, he bypassed a scholarship to signal for a $750,000 bonus and commenced his professional profession with the Braves’ Gulf Coast League affiliate, hitting .220/.295/.330. Although Baseball America ranked him because the league’s Twentieth-best prospect, the publication famous that he “reported out of form and didn’t notably distinguish himself both on the plate or behind it.” Whereas lauding his offensive potential, BA was skeptical of his skill to stay behind the plate.
McCann improved significantly in 2003, hitting .290/.329/.462 with 12 homers for A-level Rome and throwing out 38% of base stealers. Whereas praising his energy potential, his arm, and his game-calling skill, BA expressed concern concerning the 6-foot-3, 210-pound McCann’s thick decrease half and mobility behind the plate. That very same yr, the staff drafted Jarrod Saltalamacchia as a supplemental first-round select of Royal Palm Seaside Group School; he would comply with McCann up the organizational ladder, a possible challenger for the beginning catcher job.
Following McCann’s sturdy 2004 season at Excessive-A Myrtle Seaside (.278/.337/.494, 16 HR), BA positioned him forty fourth on its High 100 Prospects record within the spring of ’05, praising his candy left-handed swing, uncooked energy, and disciplined method. Whereas noting he was named the Carolina League’s finest defensive catcher, the publication added that he was nonetheless in want of enhancements to his footwork and agility.
McCann started the 2005 season at Double-A Mississippi and performed effectively. When Braves beginning catcher Johnny Estrada and backup Brayan Peña each suffered minor accidents, the Braves referred to as up the 21-year-old McCann regardless of his lack of upper-level expertise. He debuted on June 10, 2005 in opposition to the A’s, lining an RBI single off Dan Haren (who deliberately walked him with a person on second in his subsequent plate look) and including a single off Huston Road within the ninth in what was nonetheless a 6-4 loss. A day later, he hit his first homer, off Oakland’s Justin Duchscherer.
McCann made such an impression on Smoltz that he rapidly grew to become his private catcher; by late July, he was the common and Estrada the backup. McCann hit .278/.345/.400 (95 OPS+) with 5 homers in 59 video games; the Braves, who have been simply 31-28 when he debuted, completed with 90 wins and the ultimate NL East title of the Bobby Cox period. In Recreation 2 of the Division Sequence in opposition to the Astros, McCann clubbed a three-run homer off Roger Clemens, keying a 7-1 win. He added a solo homer off Wandy Rodriguez within the eighth inning of Recreation 4, giving the Braves a 6-1 lead, however they squandered it, misplaced an epic 18-inning recreation, and have been eradicated.
Remarkably, McCann’s first full season within the majors (2006) turned out to be his finest one offensively. He hit a scorching .333/.388/.572 (143 OPS+) with 24 homers, and whereas he fell 10 plate appearances wanting formally qualifying for the batting title, he completed sixth within the NL by the “phantom at-bat” rule (decided on this case by the place he would rank by going 0-for-10), and tenth in slugging proportion. This may be the one time he cracked his league’s high 10 in any slash-stat class. Moreover, he made his first of six consecutive All-Star groups. The place McCann was much less profitable was at pitch framing; by Baseball Prospectus’ retroactive estimate, he was 17.4 runs under common, the second-worst mark of any catcher and about 40 runs worse than Martin, who debuted with the Dodgers on Could 5. Additionally disappointing was the Braves’ 79-83 end, their first dropping season since 1990, and their first of 4 straight exterior the playoff image.
McCann obtained an entire lot of safety in 2007. In March, he signed a six-year, $26.8 million extension via 2012, with a membership choice for ’13. On the July 31 commerce deadline, the staff dealt Saltalamacchia — a two-time High 100 prospect at that time — to the Rangers in a seven-player blockbuster that additionally despatched Elvis Andrus, Neftalí Feliz and Matt Harrison to Texas and introduced again Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay. McCann’s framing improved markedly that season (4.0 runs, per BP), however he was much less selective on the plate and slipped to a .270/.320/.452 line (99 OPS+). His work on offense and protection got here collectively in 2008, as he hit a sturdy .301/.373/.523 (135 OPS+), led the majors in framing (34.5 runs, through FanGraphs’ methodology), and ranked second within the NL with 8.3 fWAR. The Braves, nevertheless, completed 72-90.
Whereas McCann didn’t preserve that degree, he was remarkably constant over the subsequent three seasons (2009–11), hitting a mixed .274/.358/.468 (122 OPS+) whereas averaging 22 homers and 6.2 fWAR, with particular person seasons that ranked fifth (6.0), sixth (6.0) and third (6.5) within the NL. Probably the most eventful of these seasons was 2010, Cox’s closing season as supervisor. McCann was chosen as a reserve for the All-Star Recreation (his lone begin was a yr away), and got here off the bench to pinch-hit for Yadier Molina within the fifth inning. He flew out in opposition to Justin Verlander, however when he got here up within the eighth with two outs, the bases loaded, and the NL trailing 1-0, he hit a three-run double off Matt Thornton. That was all of the scoring the Senior Circuit wanted, and McCann was voted the sport’s MVP.
The 2010 Braves gained 91 video games and claimed the Wild Card spot. Within the Division Sequence in opposition to the Giants, McCann went 6-for-14. He doubled off Tim Lincecum within the seventh inning of Recreation 1, one in all simply two hits the Braves collected as they have been shut out whereas hanging out 14 instances. He hit an RBI single off Matt Cain within the sixth inning of Recreation 2, sparking a comeback from a 4-0 deficit; they gained 5-4 in 11 innings. Going through Madison Bumgarner in Recreation 4, he plated the sport’s first run with a third-inning sacrifice fly, then led off the sixth with a solo homer that gave the Braves a 2-1 lead, however they misplaced 3-2 and have been eradicated. As for the 2011 Braves, with Fredi Gonzalez changing Cox, the staff squandered a Wild Card berth by dropping their closing 5 video games.
Although he nonetheless hit 20 homers and was value 3.6 fWAR due to his framing, McCann slipped to an 87 OPS+ in 2012 whereas enjoying via soreness in his proper shoulders and tendinitis in his proper knee. The Braves gained 94 video games and secured a Wild Card berth however misplaced the first-ever Wild Card Recreation to the Cardinals, 6-3. With McCann having slumped in September amid his bodily woes, David Ross began and went 3-for-4 with a two-run homer off Kyle Lohse; McCann walked in a pinch-hitting look. In mid-October, he underwent surgical procedure to restore a torn labrum in his proper shoulder. The Braves quickly picked up the going-on-29-year-old McCann’s $12 million choice for 2013, and whereas they initially anticipated him to be prepared for Opening Day, he didn’t debut till Could 6. In 102 video games — his lowest full-season complete in the course of the 2007–16 span — he rebounded to hit .256/336/.461 (112 OPS+), and made his closing All-Star staff, however with the trade catching on to framing, his work in that space was solely 12.9 runs above common.
September 2013 discovered McCann concerned in two polarizing, high-profile incidents that led to brawls. On September 11, he confronted the 21-year-old Fernández after the Marlins ace had admired his first main league homer — tame stuff by as we speak’s requirements — touching off a bench-clearing melee. Two weeks later, McCann blocked dwelling plate as Gómez completed his dwelling run trot, having admired his dwelling run for for what McCann thought was too lengthy as effectively; benches emptied and haymakers have been thrown earlier than the Brewers heart fielder might even cross the plate. Each dwelling run reactions have been in response to earlier incidents (Fernández felt that Evan Gattis had proven him up after homering earlier within the recreation, whereas Gómez felt he had been beforehand hit deliberately by pitcher Paul Maholm).
A contrite Fernández and a extra carefree Gómez each patched issues up with McCann, besides, he was lampooned because the humorless captain of the enjoyable police at NotGraphs and elsewhere, and the paired incidents raised extra uncomfortable questions on condition that each targets of the catcher’s ire have been Latino, celebrating in ways in which mirrored totally different cultural norms.
The incidents didn’t have an effect on McCann’s free company. The Yankees had been forward of the curve when it got here to emphasizing pitch framing, having changed the defensively shaky Jorge Posada with Martin in 2011. After letting him stroll following the 2012 season, they went low-cost and obtained what they paid for by pairing light-hitting framing specialists Francisco Cervelli and Chris Stewart on an 85-win, third-place staff, so in December, they signed McCann to a record-setting free agent contract for a catcher, 5 years and $85 million. It was a busy winter for common supervisor Brian Cashman, because the Yankees additionally added free brokers Carlos Beltrán, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Hiroki Kuroda, however misplaced Robinson Canó.
Shortly after reporting to camp, McCann addressed the Gómez incident, and prompt “my instincts took over… it was one thing I felt like I wanted to do. I didn’t prefer it. However I feel he’s a tremendous participant… I’m an enormous fan of Gómez, for positive.” The 2 would hug it out after they crossed paths the next Could.
Whereas catching 108 video games and enjoying first base one other 16 instances, McCann hit a modest .232/.286/.406 (95 OPS+) for a staff that gained simply 84 video games. Spending a better share of his time behind the plate in 2015, he improved to .232/.320/.437 (105 OPS+) whereas hitting a career-high 26 homers, however curiously, his framing slipped under common for the primary time since ’06. The 87-win Yankees claimed a Wild Card spot however misplaced to the Astros as McCann went 0-for-4.
Amid the same offensive efficiency (20 dwelling runs with a 99 OPS+) in 2016, McCann started to be phased out of the Yankees’ plans. With the staff meandering round .500 in late July, Cashman traded away Beltrán, Aroldis Chapman, Iván Nova, and Andrew Miller for prospects, then referred to as up 23-year-old catching prospect Gary Sánchez in early August. He rapidly caught hearth and hit 20 homers in 53 video games whereas getting a lot of the reps behind the plate, leaving McCann to DH. Making clear that he nonetheless needed to catch full-time, McCann provided to waive his no-trade clause if the fitting deal got here alongside. In mid-November, the Yankees accommodated him, buying and selling McCann and $11 million to the Astros for a pair of pitching prospects.
The Astros’ controversial tank-and-rebuild course of, which started in 2011, had borne its first fruit with their Wild Card berth in ’15, however they slipped to 84 wins and third within the AL West in ’16. McCann missed time because of a concussion and proper knee soreness and caught simply 95 video games, however each his 106 OPS+ (.241/.323/.436) and 9.7 framing runs have been his finest showings in years. The Astros gained 101 video games and the AL West in 2017, then beat the Pink Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers within the postseason to safe the primary championship in franchise historical past. This marked the primary time that one in all McCann’s groups gained even a single playoff collection; he hit simply .175/.277/.263 alongside the best way. Even so, he had a few massive blows, notably a two-run double off the Yankees’ Tommy Kahnle within the fifth inning of ALCS Recreation 7, sending the rating from 2-0 to 4-0, and a solo homer off the Dodgers’ Tony Cingrani within the eighth inning of the wild Recreation 5 of the World Sequence, which Houston gained 13-12. The Astros gained all of it; by the point The Athletic reported on the staff’s unlawful signal stealing, McCann had performed his final recreation.
Earlier than that, McCann spent yet another yr with the Astros, however he performed simply 63 video games and missed two months because of in-season surgical procedure on his bothersome proper knee. The late July acquisition of Martín Maldonado relegated him to backup responsibility as soon as he was wholesome; he took simply eight plate appearances in the course of the Astros’ eight-game postseason run. After they declined his $15 million choice, he inked a one-year, $2 million deal to return to the Braves, now managed by Brian Snitker — who had briefly managed McCann at Mississippi in 2005 — and recent off their first division title in 5 years. Sharing catching duties with Tyler Flowers, he did stable work because the staff gained 97 video games and one other NL East title. He went 3-for-16 because the staff misplaced to the Cardinals within the Division Sequence, however he collected a giant ovation from the Atlanta followers with a fifth-inning single off Jack Flaherty in what was already a 13-1 rout.
“It’s time to go,” McCann mentioned after the sport, asserting his retirement. “Fifteen years of catching — it’s unhappy, nevertheless it’s time. I knew a couple of month and a half in the past… I needed to be part of this once more — put this uniform again on, play in entrance of my household each evening.”
In November, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich broke the story of the Astros’ unlawful signal stealing. Two months later, commissioner Rob Manfred revealed a report detailing MLB’s investigation and suspended each president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow and supervisor A.J. Hinch for the 2020 season. McCann didn’t publicly touch upon the scandal, however in a February follow-up, Rosenthal and Drellich reported that two Astros advised them the catcher had approached Beltrán, who had been painted because the ringleader of the scheme, and requested him to cease, however to no avail.
…
Although he completed his profession with seven All-Star appearances and the eighth-highest dwelling run complete for a catcher (269, with the opposite 13 coming at DH, first base, or as a pinch-hitter), McCann is in the same boat to Martin in that neither his conventional nor his primary superior stats scan as Hallworthy. He completed with simply 1,590 hits, fewer than any BBWAA-elected catcher apart from Roy Campanella (1,422 together with his Negro Leagues hits). His 110 OPS+ is decrease than all however two of the 17 non-Negro Leagues enshrinees, particularly Rick Ferrell and Ray Schalk, the 2 lowest-ranked catchers by way of JAWS. McCann’s 28.3 JAWS is larger than solely that of Ferrell (25.9). In solely one in all his eight journeys to the playoffs did his staff win at the very least one collection — and after profitable all of it, that staff wound up on the heart of a scandal. He obtained MVP votes in only one season, primarily as a result of the voters usually wasn’t conscious of how helpful his receiving was.
Certainly, McCann’s framing made him exceptionally helpful, and as with Martin, we merely can’t take a correct measure of his candidacy with out incorporating that knowledge. In order with relievers, the off-the-shelf model of JAWS gained’t suffice. Baseball Reference’s model of WAR (which is utilized in JAWS) has no framing part, and there are not any framing numbers anyway for 13 of the 17 enshrined catchers. BP’s pre-PITCHf/x stats solely cowl the previous few years of Carlton Fisk’s profession, which resulted in 1993, although between that model and the PITCHf/x, FanGraphs, and Statcast numbers, we now have the total careers of Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza lined. Rodriguez, whereas identified for his all-around defensive excellence, was not a lot of a framer, whereas Piazza, usually derided as a poor defender for his low caught stealing percentages, was large at framing.
Martin and McCann are roughly one eyelash aside atop the leaderboard in FanGraphs’ model of pitch framing runs, which was launched and integrated into WAR in 2019 and utilized retroactively to WAR going again to ’08, the beginning of the PITCHf/x period. In introducing it, Jared Cross famous that the pair gained extra worth by doing so than some other gamers. The methodology has since been tweaked, and time has handed, however listed here are the highest 10 framers in line with our knowledge:
Pitch Framing Runs Since 2008
* = energetic
McCann has a slight edge over Martin on a charge foundation, rating third behind José Molina and Grandal; each are effectively forward of Yadier Molina in that respect. It needs to be famous groups’ consciousness of framing considerably decreased the unfold between one of the best and worst on the ability, because the bottom-of-the-barrel ones have been weeded out and the remaining have been skilled with a watch in direction of enhancing their receiving.
These framing runs helped McCann charge among the many most precious gamers within the league by our model of WAR. From 2008–11, through his 4 finishes within the NL’s high six, his 26.7 WAR was second within the majors behind Albert Pujols‘ 27.8, with Chase Utley (25.7) the one different participant inside 5 wins. From 2006–16, McCann’s 47.9 WAR ranks seventh, with Martin fifth at 50.6.
The primary two years of that stretch are pre-PITCHf/x, and as famous, McCann was subpar at framing when he reached the majors, based mostly on the Retroframing methodology of Baseball Prospectus‘ Max Marchi, which makes use of referred to as strikes above common whereas going again to 1988, the beginning of the pitch depend period. As I defined within the Martin piece, for the seven catchers with at the very least 50 WAR by our current methodology, I’ve used BP’s numbers to fill within the pre-2008 blanks, and used our runs-to-wins converter to regulate their particular person WARs for 1991-2007. From there, I’ve calculated seven-year peak totals together with revised profession totals with a purpose to generate a FanGraphs WAR-based model of JAWS (frJAWS) for this group:
FanGraphs Framing-Inclusive JAWS for Catchers
Participant | Profession | WAR | FG FRM | BP Fram | WAR Adj | frWAR | frPeak | frJAWS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Piazza | 1992-2007 | 62.5 | n/a | 93.2 | 9.04 | 71.5 | 52.4 | 62.0 |
Ivan Rodriguez | 1991-2011 | 68.4 | 2.9 | -16.0 | -1.6 | 66.7 | 40.1 | 53.4 |
Buster Posey | 2009-2021 | 57.9 | 128.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 57.9 | 47.7 | 52.8 |
Joe Mauer | 2004-2018 | 53.5 | 27.6 | 43.7 | 4.3 | 57.8 | 42.7 | 50.3 |
Russell Martin | 2006-2019 | 54.5 | 165.7 | 47.7 | 4.6 | 59.1 | 40.8 | 49.9 |
Yadier Molina | 2004-2022 | 55.6 | 151.1 | 37.6 | 3.7 | 59.3 | 37.6 | 48.5 |
Brian McCann | 2005-2019 | 52.1 | 165.6 | -15.6 | -1.5 | 50.6 | 37.2 | 43.9 |
FG FRM = FanGraphs framing runs for 2008 onward, now included in WAR. BP Fram = framing runs from 1988-2007 through Baseball Prospectus. WAR Adj = BP framing runs transformed to FanGraphs WAR. frWAR, frPeak, frJAWS = FanGraphs WAR-based profession/peak/JAWS, adjusted to incorporate BP framing runs for pre-2008.
The pre-2008 framing numbers create about an 11-WAR swing for Piazza relative to Rodriguez. Rodriguez, Posey, Mauer, Martin, and Molina are all shut in frJAWS regardless of careers that significantly different in size. As I wrote in my earlier installment, the truth that Corridor of Famers Rodriguez and Mauer are clustered with the extremely regarded Posey and Molina, each prone to be a part of them — and that Martin is correct there within the combine — means that they’re all cheap selections for Cooperstown.
The identical pre-2008 numbers that increase Martin take a chunk out of McCann; the distinction between the 2 is a internet of 63.3 runs. What’s extra, our 2024 change to Statcast’s catcher blocking and throwing elements, and from Final Base Operating (UBR) to Statcast’s baserunning metric (labeled XBR), diminished Martin’s fWAR from 55.0 to 54.5, and McCann’s from 54.5 to 52.1. Thus McCann’s frJAWS is right down to 43.9; he’s about the identical distance from Molina as Molina is from Rodriguez. McCann continues to be nearer to Molina than to the next-ranked Grandal (36.8 frJAWS), however far sufficient behind the pack that I’ve to assume twice, whereas I’m already satisfied Martin is Hallworthy and belongs on my poll.
One further level relevant not solely to McCann and Martin but additionally Mauer and Posey is that they’re perceived as having brief careers. Relative to Rodriguez and Molina — and additional again Fisk, Ted Simmons and others — that’s true. The M&M boys every retired with fewer than 7,000 PA (as did Posey), however each rank among the many high 30 all-time with over 1,500 video games caught, nonetheless forward of six of the 17 enshrined non-Negro Leagues catchers. These “short-timers” every missed time because of documented concussions; the notion their careers aren’t Cooperstown-worthy just because they didn’t danger further traumatic mind accidents strikes me as poisonous. As with beginning pitcher profession lengths, the instances are a-changin’.
On that word, as with Félix Hernández, one other first-year candidate who’s brief in S-JAWS, I’m inclined to vote for McCann in hopes that he generates sufficient assist to remain on the poll, so I — and different voters — can have at the very least one other yr to deliberate. Martin will not be off to a flying begin, however on Thursday he obtained his public first vote from among the many 30 ballots within the Tracker through The Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro. “Easy methods to consider and worth catcher protection/framing has advanced and can doubtless proceed to, which provides [a] difficult factor,” she wrote on Bluesky. “But when protection can and has been valued at different positions when figuring out HOF vote, I don’t assume catchers needs to be excluded from that. Warrants extra time on poll to contemplate imo.”
I’ll apply that logic to McCann. As long as gamers who go one-and-done on the writers’ poll proceed to get frozen out of the Period Committee course of, I desire erring on the facet of inclusion. Simmons is the one one-and-done candidate to be elected, and it took 32 years; Lou Whitaker is the one different one in all word even to get placement on a poll, whereas Invoice Freehan, Bobby Grich, Dave Stieb and others have been regularly bypassed. Johan Santana gained’t even be eligible for such therapy till the 2029 poll, after his BBWAA eligibility would have lapsed. We’ve got extra to realize by seeing what the subsequent few years of innovation in analytics deliver relating to catcher protection than we do to lose by casting high quality candidates into oblivion. Even when it’s extra for strategic functions than a robust conviction McCann is Hallworthy, I feel it’s the fitting transfer.