JAWS and the 2025 Corridor of Fame Poll: Félix Hernández

The next article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing have a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Corridor of Fame poll. For an in depth introduction to this yr’s poll, and different candidates within the sequence, use the instrument above; an introduction to JAWS could be discovered right here. For a tentative schedule and an opportunity to fill out a Corridor of Fame poll for our crowdsourcing mission, see right here. All WAR figures check with the Baseball-Reference model until in any other case indicated.

Earlier than he’d ever thrown a serious league pitch, cracked a prospect checklist, or reached authorized grownup standing, Félix Hernández had a nickname: King Felix. Dubbed as such by U.S.S. Mariner blogger Jason Michael Barker Dave Cameron on July 17, 2003, when he was only a 17-year-old within the Low-A Northwest League, he was already overpowering a lot older hitters. Nonetheless a teen when he reached the majors, he shortly got here to symbolize the hopes and desires of a franchise that had fallen in need of a World Sequence regardless of 4 playoffs appearances from 1995–2001; parted with superstars Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr., and Alex Rodriguez alongside the best way; and capped that run with a record-setting 116 wins however a untimely exit within the ALCS.

Although gradual to embrace the royal moniker, Hernández grew into it. His dazzling mixture of an electrifying, darting sinker, a knee-buckling curve, and a signature laborious changeup propelled him to a Cy Younger Award, two ERA titles, six All-Star appearances, and an ideal recreation. From 2009–14, he was the most effective pitcher within the American League by ERA, FIP, strikeouts, and WAR, parlaying that right into a contract commensurate that made him the sport’s highest-paid pitcher. Sadly, a heavy workload — extra innings than any pitcher 23 or youthful since Dwight Gooden twenty years earlier — sapped the sizzle from his fastball, with accidents and a cavalier strategy to conditioning taking their toll as nicely. The Mariners struggled to encompass him with a high quality roster, and altered managers and pitching coaches each couple of years. The workforce didn’t attain the playoffs as soon as throughout Hernández’s profession, ending above .500 simply 5 instances, with a pair of second-place showings within the AL West nearly as good because it bought.

The final leg of Hernández’s profession was a slog. For as robust as he had been in his 20s, he was principally alternative degree as soon as he turned 30. Unable to adapt to his altering physique and repertoire, he netted -0.2 WAR from 2016–19, and after his seven-year, $175-million contract expired, he by no means secured one other main league job. His fadeout left him shy of the milestones that are likely to catch Corridor of Fame voters’ eyes, and for as a lot as we may need in any other case, the superior statistics don’t make a very robust case for him, both. Whereas he might discover sufficient assist to linger on the poll, he isn’t prone to attain 75% quickly.

Félix Abraham Graham Hernández was born April 8, 1986 in Valencia, Venezuela, the nation’s third-largest metropolis. He grew up in a middle-class surroundings; his father Felix Sr., a former baseball prospect himself, labored as a truck driver whereas his mom Mirian was a homemaker. As a toddler, the youthful Hernández performed shortstop in Little League, however basketball was his old flame. He would skip college to shoot hoops on the playground and dreamed of constructing the NBA.

Hernández’s robust arm garnered consideration in baseball circles. At 12, he started pitching for touring squads. At 14, he was throwing 90 mph and being scouted by main league groups. “Once I was pitching in Little League, I’d see all of those folks within the stands,” Hernández advised Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller in 2015. “And I used to be like, ‘Who’re all of those folks?’”

Mariners bird-dog scout Luis Fuenmayor was one. He phoned space scouts Pedro Avila and Emilio Carrasquel (a nephew of Fifties White Sox star shortstop Chico Carrasquel), who invited him to the workforce’s Venezuelan academy. Hernández was already inclined towards the Mariners as a result of he idolized Caracas native Freddy Garcia, who had turn into a stalwart member of the workforce’s rotation in 1999, lower than a yr after he was acquired from the Astros within the Johnson commerce, and who had earned All-Star honors for that 116-win 2001 squad.

Although the Braves supplied more cash and the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, and Rockies pursued him as nicely, the Mariners — led by worldwide scouting director Bob Engle — received the household over. Hernández finally signed with Seattle for a $710,000 bonus on July 4, 2002. Even simply three years later, Braves director of participant growth Dayton Moore seen him as The One Who Obtained Away, telling the Seattle Put up-Intelligencer’s John Paul Morosi, “That’s the hardest loss we’ve had. I knew he was particular the second I laid eyes on him.”

After pitching within the Venezuelan Summer time League that yr, Hernández started his stateside skilled profession in 2003, as a 17-year-old with Everett of the Low-A Northwest League, a circuit the place the typical participant was 4 years older. He dominated hitters with a 94-95 mph fastball, a plus curve and a stable changeup, posting a 2.29 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 55 innings and incomes a late-season promotion to A-level Wisconsin. Baseball America named him the Northwest League’s no. 1 prospect that fall, and positioned him thirtieth on their Prime 100 Prospects checklist the next spring.

Hernández put up stellar numbers in 2004 — 2.95 ERA, 10.4 Ok/9, and simply eight homers allowed in 149 1/3 innings — whereas splitting his season between Excessive-A Inland Empire and Double-A San Antonio. BA topped him the highest prospect of each the California and Texas Leagues, noting his improved fastball (now 96-97 mph), grading each that and his curve as 70s and his growing changeup as a 60, and including that the Mariners have been preserving a 88-90 mph slider that “places his different pitches to disgrace” below wraps out of well being issues. By the spring of 2005, earlier than he’d even celebrated his nineteenth birthday, he was the publication’s no. 2 prospect general behind solely Joe Mauer.

Whereas Hernández spent the primary 4 months of the 2005 season at Triple-A Tacoma, the Mariners have been in tough form. They’d adopted their 116-win season with a pair of 93-win campaigns (however no playoff berths) earlier than plummeting to 63 wins in 2004. Although they confirmed indicators of life within the first half of 2005, by the July 31 commerce deadline they have been 45-58. Common supervisor Invoice Bavasi made 4 trades that month and cleared a spot within the rotation by releasing the struggling Aaron Sele. Hernández had put up a 2.25 ERA in 88 innings at Tacoma, however he’d missed over three weeks resulting from a bout of bursitis and had labored out of the bullpen to rebuild his pitch depend.

On August 3, Hernández bought the call-up. He debuted the following afternoon, the primary teenage pitcher to begin a serious league recreation since Todd Van Poppel did so with the Athletics in 1991. Although the primary 4 batters he confronted reached base — single, stroll, stroll, single — to convey house a run, Hernández restricted the harm by getting Dmitri Younger to floor right into a double play, then struck out Ivan Rodriguez. He allowed simply two baserunners and one run over the following 4 innings, however the Mariners didn’t rating whereas he was within the recreation and misplaced 3-1. They’d proceed to supply meager run assist, scoring three runs or fewer in 10 of his 12 begins, however he was each bit nearly as good as marketed, posting a 2.67 ERA (158 ERA+) with 8.2 Ok/9 throughout 84 1/3 innings.

When Hernández confirmed as much as spring coaching in 2006, he packed 246 kilos on his 6-foot-3 body, 16 over his goal weight. His additional heft led to a bout of shin splints and a disappointing first half; he didn’t decrease his ERA beneath 5.00 for good till June 28 and completed at 4.52 (98 ERA+) in 191 innings. His WAR dropped from 2.8 the yr earlier than to 1.3. He’d discovered a tough lesson. “After the season, I stated, ‘That’s not me. I can’t try this anymore,’” he advised the Seattle Instances’ Larry Stone in 2011.

The subsequent spring, Hernández checked in at a svelte 226 kilos. After placing out 12 whereas permitting three hits in eight scoreless innings on Opening Day towards the A’s, he no-hit the Crimson Sox for seven innings on April 11 earlier than yielding a single to J.D. Drew, and settled for a one-hit shutout. Regardless of ups and downs thereafter, his 3.92 ERA (112 ERA+) and three.9 WAR represented steps ahead, as did the Mariners’ 88-74 report after three straight sub-.500 seasons.

Although his 3.6 walks per 9 marked a profession excessive, and his 3.80 FIP was kind of consistent with his marks in 2006 and ’07, Hernández grazed the AL leaderboard with a 3.45 ERA (123 ERA+) in ’08 whereas additionally topping the 200-inning mark for the primary time (200 2/3). This wasn’t essentially a superb factor; his 666 1/3 innings by means of his age-22 season was greater than 100 forward of each different Wild Card-era pitcher besides CC Sabathia (588). You’d have to return to Gooden (924 1/3 from 1984–87) to discover a extra closely used pitcher at such a younger age. It’s not like Hernández was doing it with a championship on the road; the Mariners misplaced 101 video games in 2008, their fourth shedding season out of 5.

On June 17, 2008, Hernández threw an immaculate inning — three strikeouts on a complete of 9 pitches — towards the Marlins’ Jeremy Hermida, Jorge Cantu, and Mike Jacobs. To that time he was simply the thirteenth AL pitcher to take action.

Due to his age, workload, and the earlier yr’s bout of bursitis, the Mariners had filed an objection to stop Hernández from pitching for Venezuela within the inaugural World Baseball Traditional in 2006, however they allowed him to pitch in ’09; he threw 8 2/3 scoreless innings in a pair of appearances, getting wins in each video games and serving to Venezuela attain the semifinals. With the Mariners giving him an extended leash throughout the common season, and with an improved changeup — the quickest in baseball, with distinctive vertical motion — as nicely, he took his recreation to a brand new degree. In 34 begins totaling 238 2/3 innings (the AL’s third-highest whole), he struck out 217 hitters and positioned second with a 2.49 ERA and fifth with 5.9 WAR. Even with modest run assist on an 85-win workforce, he received a league-high 19 video games and completed second to Zack Greinke within the AL Cy Younger voting.

In January 2010, throughout the second of his three years of arbitration eligibility, the going-on-24-year-old Hernández signed a five-year, $78 million extension, one which included incentives, escalators, and restricted no-trade safety. He delivered on the promise of that contract by bettering in nearly each measure from 2009, as he led the AL in ERA (2.27), innings (249 2/3), and WAR (7.2), and ranked second in strikeouts (232). Regardless of having traded for Cliff Lee to type one in every of recreation’s finest one-two punches, the Mariners collapsed to 101 losses and scored the majors’ fewest runs by far (simply 3.17 per recreation). Hernández acquired the bottom run assist of any AL qualifying pitcher and completed with a 13-12 report, however he received the AL Cy Younger over David Worth (19-6, 2.72 ERA) and Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA). The vote was seen as a watershed second within the historical past of the award, as Hernández’s win whole stood because the lowest of any starter over a full season till Jacob deGrom received the NL Cy Younger in 2018 whereas going 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA and 9.5 WAR.

“If you happen to have a look at each conceivable measurement for all of the candidates, Felix Hernandez — aside from wins — just about dominated the sector,” voter Erik Boland advised the New York Instances’ Tyler Kepner. “So based mostly on that, and based mostly on the award being for finest pitcher, not most dear pitcher — as a result of if it was most dear pitcher, it may have been Sabathia or Worth — all of the measurements, reasonably dramatically, level towards Felix.”

“I didn’t have the wins, however you look over all of the numbers and also you say, ‘Wow,’” Hernández advised Kepner. “I’m so completely satisfied. My first response was crying.”

Although Hernández’s FIPs barely budged from 2010 (3.04) to ’11 (3.13), a 43-point spike in batting common on balls in play (from .265 to .308) shot his ERA from 2.27 to three.47, along with his WAR lower in half, to three.6. Nonetheless, he made his second AL All-Star workforce, starting a run of 5 straight choices. The 2011 season noticed the Mariners get notably inventive whereas selling their ace, first in a spring industrial starring his workhorse alter ego, Larry Bernandez:

On Could 28, 2011, the Mariners opened a particular part at Safeco Area, the King’s Court docket. For $30, a fan acquired a free yellow King Felix t-shirt and an outsized “Ok” card to go along with a seat in Part 150, close to the left subject foul pole, the place the King’s topics may cheer themselves right into a frenzy. Quickly the courtroom expanded into an adjoining part, although the Mariners may solely promote so many tickets to a 95-loss workforce.

Due to bettering peripherals in 2012 and ’13 — to not point out the usage of a cutter to offset his declining fastball velocity — Hernández lowered his ERA to simply above 3.00 whereas main the AL in FIP within the former yr (2.84) and trimming it even additional within the latter (2.61, second within the AL). He additionally cracked the league’s high 10 in WAR, rating sixth in 2012 (5.3) and seventh in ’13 (5.1). In the meantime, he completed fourth within the Cy Younger voting within the former season, eighth within the latter.

On August 15, 2012, throughout a sunny Wednesday afternoon in entrance of 21,889 followers at Seattle’s Safeco Area, all the pieces got here collectively for Hernández. He retired all 27 Rays he confronted en path to the twenty third good recreation in main league historical past — however by some means the third of the season, after White Sox righty Philip Humber (additionally at Safeco) and Giants righty Matt Cain. Hernández struck out 12, together with 5 of the ultimate six hitters, and wanted simply 113 pitches to complete the job, the final of them a giant curveball that froze Tampa Bay’s Sean Rodríguez.

Although the Mariners continued to muddle alongside beneath .500 — and had produced simply two successful seasons throughout Hernández’s profession to that time — their enchancment from 61 wins in 2010 to 75 in ’12 below GM Jack Zduriencik (who had taken over in October 2008) was sufficient for Hernández and the workforce to restructure his contract. The outcome, introduced in mid-February 2013, was a seven-year, $175 million pact, the most important for any pitcher to that time (some retailers reported it as a five-year, $135.5 million extension masking the 2015–19 seasons). The negotiations prevented Hernández from pitching in that yr’s World Baseball Traditional.

After backsliding to 71 wins in 2013, the Mariners improved to 87 in ’14, lacking a Wild Card spot by only one recreation. That yr, Hernández posted profession bests with a 2.14 ERA, which led the AL, a 2.50 FIP, and 248 strikeouts; on a per-plate-appearance foundation, he additionally put up his finest strikeout and stroll charges (27.2% and 5.0%, respectively). His 6.4 WAR ranked second solely to Corey Kluber’s 8.1, and he completed a really shut second behind the Cleveland ace within the AL Cy Younger voting.

Even whereas posting a gaudy 18-9 report and making his fifth consecutive AL All-Star workforce, Hernández’s strikeout, stroll and residential run charges all moved within the flawed instructions in 2015, and his ERA climbed to three.53, his highest in eight years. Due to a couple skipped turns for minor illnesses, he threw solely 201 2/3 innings, 34 1/3 fewer than in 2014. His efficiency nonetheless added as much as 4.6 WAR, good for fourth within the league.

Alas, whether or not labeled as a superb or nice season, it turned out to be the final of its form on his résumé — not that anybody knew it on the time. Certainly, Hernández posted a superb 2.21 ERA by means of his first 9 begins in 2016. Nevertheless, his common four-seam velocity had instantly dropped from 92.6 mph to 91.0, along with his sinker’s velocity falling as nicely, however barely much less. He was getting fewer swinging strikes and fewer chases, so regardless of the low ERA, he had a 4.11 FIP to that time, pushed by a excessive stroll fee (3.9 per 9). After being tagged for six runs in six innings towards the Twins, he landed on the disabled checklist with a proper calf pressure — his first such stint since 2008 — and was gradual to get better, lacking 53 days. Returning after the All-Star break, he was inconsistent, posting a 4.48 ERA and 4.98 FIP within the second half. Each marks rose above 5.00 over the ultimate six weeks, because the Mariners’ playoff odds dwindled from 45% to zero. Not solely have been his 106 ERA+ and 1.3 WAR over 25 begins his worst marks since 2006, but additionally the 86-win Mariners missed a Wild Card berth by three video games, extending their playoff drought to fifteen years. The mathematics was a gut-punch.

After the season, pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. (whose father had served because the workforce’s pitching coach in 2008), expressed some frustration when reviewing Hernández’s efficiency, noting some mechanical inconsistencies that compromised his command, in addition to opponents getting smart to his unvaried strategy. By way of the Seattle Instances’ Ryan Divish:

“It was simply so obtrusive, and I did my finest to get by means of to him, and I’ll proceed into subsequent yr, is that everyone was taking a look at him up,” Stottlemyre stated. “So if he was throwing his changeup beneath the zone and out of the zone the place it wasn’t a strike out of the hand, golf equipment simply spit on it. It was the identical along with his fastball. You have a look at the video games that he struggled and golf equipment actually made him work. The appeared for him up within the zone and when stuff was down beneath, they only spit on it. They pigeon-holed him. ”

Supervisor Scott Servais issued a public problem to Hernández, telling Divish, “He’s going to should make just a few changes within the offseason and are available into spring coaching in just a little higher form with just a little extra urgency as a result of we actually want him to be on the high of the rotation.”

Different pitchers have rebounded from mid-career slides towards mediocrity, however for Hernández, although he was simply 30 years previous, issues went more and more downhill, this regardless of a winter of laborious work and a tune-up within the 2017 World Baseball Traditional, throughout which he allowed two runs (one earned) in two appearances totaling 7 2/3 innings. Shoulder bursitis and biceps tendonitis despatched him to the IL for prolonged stays in late April and early August, limiting him to 16 begins with a 4.36 ERA (96 ERA+) and 0.7 WAR. Whereas he made 29 begins in 2018, decrease again stiffness sidelined him in July, and his common four-seam velocity once more dropped, this time from 90.9 mph to 89.6; batters slugged .603 towards the pitch and hammered him for a 5.55 ERA in 155 2/3 innings. His -1.3 WAR tied for the AL’s second-lowest mark. Whereas the Mariners received 89 video games, their highest whole throughout Hernández’s time in Seattle, they nonetheless missed the playoffs by eight video games. Not even the King at his peak would have made up the distinction.

Regardless of the Mariners’ stable exhibiting, GM Jerry Dipoto dismantled the workforce, buying and selling James Paxton to the Yankees, Robinson Canó and Edwin Díaz to the Mets, Jean Segura to the Phillies, and so forth. Because the workforce slipped to 68 wins in 2019, Hernández’s last assured season below his huge contract went no higher than the earlier one. On Opening Day towards the Angels, he allowed three runs (one earned) in 5 1/3 innings, netting a win; no one knew it on the time, however that turned out to be his last one. By mid-Could, when he landed on the IL with a strained latissimus dorsi, his ERA had ballooned to six.52. He missed over three months, returning in late August, and apart from a seven-inning, one-run begin towards the White Sox on September 14, the outcomes have been usually unhealthy. On September 26 at Safeco Area, he made his last begin for the Mariners, dealing with the A’s. I wrote about it for FanGraphs:

He tipped his cap to the King’s Court docket upon coming into, fell behind early whereas struggling along with his command and management, strutted a bit after a strikeout, exulted in Dylan Moore’s spectacular, run-saving catch to finish the fifth inning, competed like hell with a tenacity that far outstripped his stuff, after which bowed to the frenzied crowd of 20,921 earlier than exiting the sector. Some 2,800 miles away in Brooklyn, watching the outing on my workplace TV as I pecked out an article filled with goal measures concerning his place in historical past, I struggled to maintain it collectively. I can solely think about how Mariners followers felt.

A free agent for the primary time, Hernández signed a minor league take care of the Braves in January, one that will pay him a wage of simply $1 million if he made the workforce. By 4 Grapefruit League appearances, he appeared on observe for a roster spot, however the COVID-19 pandemic shut the sport down in mid-March. Whereas he briefly returned to camp in July when the workforce started ramping up for the shortened season, a day after the Braves revealed that Freddie Freeman and three different Atlanta gamers had examined optimistic for the coronavirus, Hernández selected to decide out of enjoying. He signed an analogous minor league take care of the Orioles in February 2021 however didn’t pitch as nicely earlier than elbow discomfort sidelined him in mid-March. Shortly after he resumed throwing, he opted out of his deal in late March. He by no means discovered one other touchdown spot. Weeks earlier than his thirty fifth birthday, he had thrown his final pitch in a serious league uniform.

…

Even at first look, it’s not laborious to see that Hernández’s street to Cooperstown is a steep one, as neither his conventional nor his superior stats scan as Corridor-worthy. Pitcher wins are an imperfect measure of worth, however for higher or worse, voters have usually used them as a proxy for profession size and achievement. Sadly, there aren’t many fashionable precedents for electing pitchers with fewer than 200 wins; solely three enshrined AL/NL starters have gained entry by way of the writers’ poll, specifically Dizzy Dean (150, elected in 1953), Dazzy Vance (197, elected in ’55), and Sandy Koufax (166, elected in ’72). All three have been higher than Hernández at run prevention on a profession degree, and solely Vance threw extra innings. Of the six different enshrined starters with fewer than 200 wins, 5 hail from the nineteenth century or the Deadball Period, with Veterans Committee choice Lefty Gomez (189, elected 1972) the one exception.

Equally, solely 13 starters have been elected with fewer than 3,000 innings pitched, together with 5 from the nineteenth century or Deadball Period. From among the many different eight, 4 of them are the sub-200 win pitchers talked about above, whereas two others have been elected throughout the previous 11 years. Right here’s that group, plus Hernández:

Hernández has the bottom ERA+ of the bunch, and fewer innings than all however three of these pitchers; he’s bought a better WAR than that trio, which incorporates Koufax. That also leaves him with the fourth-lowest peak of the group, and an S-JAWS that’s on par with Koufax. The issue is he’s simply not Koufax, nor does he have a Koufax-like case. Whereas Hernández did win a Cy Younger and two ERA titles, Koufax received three Cy Youngs (all earlier than the award was break up into two for separate leagues), 5 ERA titles, an MVP award, and three World Sequence (with two MVP awards). In keeping with the Invoice James Corridor of Fame Monitor, which provides credit score for awards, league leads, milestones, and postseason efficiency, Hernández’s meager rating of 67 isn’t even near “a superb chance.” Koufax scores 227, which is about 100 factors past “a digital cinch” and explains why he was a first-ballot Corridor of Famer regardless of his brief profession.

Hernández compares considerably extra favorably to Dean, Gomez, and Lemon, however every had postseason heroics in at the very least one World Sequence, and even whereas pitching in a time earlier than the Cy Younger was awarded, all rating within the 112–128 vary on the Monitor — and that’s with Lemon lacking time resulting from World Battle II, whereas Dean and Gomez (and Koufax, in fact) having their careers lower brief by arm accidents. Inside these abbreviated contexts, these guys achieved quite a bit.

WAR and JAWS aren’t terribly flattering to Hernández, both. He’s tied for 114th within the former; amongst these above him are a few contemporaries with even fewer innings, specifically Johan Santana (51.7 in 2,025 2/3 innings) and Roy Oswalt (50.0 in 2,245 1/3 innings). Hernández is a extra respectable sixty fifth in adjusted peak WAR, forward of 28 of the 66 enshrined non-Negro Leagues starters. Even so, he’s nicely beneath Santana (45.0) and Oswalt (40.2), to not point out the still-active Chris Sale (41.7 in 1,958 innings) and deGrom (39.8 in simply 1,367 innings), Sabathia (39.3), and nearly each good misplaced candidate I discussed in my sequence on beginning pitchers outdoors the Corridor from 2022, reminiscent of Kevin Brown, David Cone, Orel Hershiser, Rick Reuschel, Bret Saberhagen, and Dave Stieb.

Hernández’s 44.1 S-JAWS ranks 97th, forward of simply 14 of the 66 enshrinees. Repeating a desk from my Andy Pettitte/Mark Buehrle replace:

The place Sabathia’s S-JAWS locations him within the thirty ninth percentile, Santana’s within the thirtieth, and Pettitte and Buehrle within the twenty seventh and twenty eighth, respectively, Hernández is down within the twenty second, caught within the first quartile as a substitute of the second. I voted for Pettitte for the primary time final yr on the premise of his S-JAWS quartile and quantity of postseason accomplishments, and I’ll vote for Sabathia on this poll. I’m unsure I can justify voting for Hernández on that foundation. Inspecting his standing by age in key classes relative to Corridor of Fame starters doesn’t provide any stronger justification, both.

Created forward of Hernández’s last begin in 2019, that graph is oriented to indicate him rating within the high 10 or 20 in strikeouts and WAR relative each to all post-1901 starters and to the 58 enshrinees throughout his 20s, however plummeting as soon as he hit 30. Even with Mike Mussina since elected, there’s no have to replace the graph; you get the thought.

Earlier this yr, when Kluber, a two-time Cy Younger winner, retired, I examined the most effective runs of 5, seven, and 10 consecutive seasons since 1978 based mostly on WAR. Santana, Brown, Stieb, Kevin Appier, and Kluber are among the many non-Corridor of Famers who stand out on the five-year checklist. Hernández cracks the decrease reaches of the seven-year checklist (37.8 WAR from 2009–15) and the 10-year one (47.2 WAR from 2006–15), however on each, a number of aforementioned non-Corridor of Famers determine extra prominently.

I went into this course of hoping to discover a stable, goal motive to vote for Hernández. It’s not that I used to be unaware of his rankings in WAR and S-JAWS, however I hoped that possibly if I tilted my head, coated one eye, and squinted, I’d see one thing I’d beforehand missed. I don’t assume I’ve, at the very least not by the ways in which I’ve evaluated pitchers in a Corridor context for the previous 20ish years. Hernández did have an awesome run; from 2007–15, his 45.9 WAR (together with offense) is third behind solely Clayton Kershaw (49.4, regardless of not debuting till Could 25, 2008) and Greinke (47.0), two future Corridor of Famers. He’s second to Kershaw in case you restrict the stretch to 2009–14, however the hole between the 2 is wider over a shorter interval.

Turning to Wins Above Common or fWAR as a substitute of bWAR, or evaluating beginning or debut date ranges… I attempted such approaches. Thus far, none convinces me sufficient to attempt to persuade you, the reader, that after we have a look at Hernández’s profession we’re seeing one thing in addition to the story of a pitcher labored very laborious at a younger age earlier than working out of steam in his quest for Cooperstown. Hernández had some nice seasons for a franchise that largely squandered them by not surrounding him with higher gamers. He handled the inevitable accidents that include high-volume pitching, and he couldn’t discover a method to do what the nice ones do: remake himself to fight the inevitability of Father Time. As an alternative, he threw his final aggressive pitch at age 33, ending a three-year stretch by which he’d posted a 5.42 ERA and -1.4 WAR in 314 innings.

It doesn’t assist that the Mariners had a lot organizational turnover throughout his time. Even with solely three GMs throughout Hernández’s run (Bavasi till June 2008, Zduriencik from October ’08 to August ’15, and Jerry Dipoto from September ’15 onward), they cycled by means of eight managers (two of them interim ones) and eight pitching coaches. That quantities to altering the voices within the pitcher’s ear about each two years, which may make it robust for a supervisor or coach to construct up the belief essential to have laborious conversations with a famous person.

Maybe if Hernández had come alongside just a few years later, when the trade dealt with pitchers of their early 20s with better care, he’d have stood a greater likelihood at longevity, however he’s not innocent. We will play what-if all day, however he’s the one who owns his intermittent dedication to coaching and his lack of ability to adapt — widespread themes when his title is mentioned throughout the trade. A few damning items from September 2019 stick in reminiscence. Divish revisited Servais’ 2016 problem:

Stated one Mariners participant on the situation of anonymity: “All of us knew he wanted to alter. However he didn’t get it.”

Hernández vowed it could be higher, nevertheless it turned obvious such guarantees weren’t stored.

… Hernández arrived in spring coaching [in 2019] trying no totally different from the top of final season. His first bullpen session was so unhealthy a workforce govt questioned if he had touched a baseball the complete offseason.

Ouch. By way of The Athletic’s Corey Brock, harkening again to Dipoto’s arrival within the spring of 2016:

“He got here in and went by means of a routine that I got here to seek out out was ‘Félix’s routine,’” Dipoto stated. “He didn’t throw within the early bullpen classes. He took the primary week to 10 days to acclimate himself.”

The reality was that regardless of his promise to present higher than his finest, Hernández did little or no throwing or coaching — if any — throughout the offseason. He would wait till pitchers and catchers reported to the workforce’s facility in Arizona every February to get his arm (and physique) in form for the upcoming season.

… “There was this perception that Félix was going to flip a swap and be able to go,” Dipoto stated. “However we by no means actually noticed that.”

Hernández typically purchased into the workforce’s options, hiring a coach throughout the winter of 2016–17, following Stottlemyre’s recommendation to pitch to contact extra within the spring of ’18, however “he would ultimately return to what he had all the time accomplished — pumping fastballs — whereas by no means acknowledging that he was a lesser model of the participant he had been,” wrote Brock. “Group sources stated he was reticent to just accept the membership’s efforts to assist from an analytic standpoint, eschewing scouting studies and biomechanical information utilized by different pitchers.”

“Hernández’s profession arc is fascinating and tragic,” wrote Divish. “It’s Shakespearean in its triumph and turmoil. Meteoric rise adopted by a gentle fall with no vindication ultimately.”

Whereas I’m not but satisfied Hernández is a Corridor of Famer, I proceed to be haunted by the destiny of Santana. In a 12-season profession, he led his league in ERA and WAR thrice apiece and received two Cy Youngs, however an anterior capsule tear lower his time brief. He went one-and-done on a really crowded 2018 poll, receiving simply 2.4%. He’s ineligible for a spot on at an Period Committee poll till the 2029 Modern Baseball one (if the present format continues), and even then there’s no assure. Gamers who obtain lower than 5% from the writers not often wind up on committee ballots, a actuality that I’ve spent my profession as an analyst and advocate battling with scant success. Ted Simmons is the one such participant elected after falling off the writers’ poll in his solely strive; Lou Whitaker has appeared on one committee poll, Bobby Grich none.

Because the voters grapples with the best way to consider latest generations of beginning pitchers, I feel it’s preferable to maintain as many present candidates on the poll so voters can proceed evaluating them, supporting the most effective as a substitute of measuring them towards ineligible ones; the Santana mistake might not be undone for many years. Thus I lean towards casting a vote for Hernández to assist guarantee he will get to five% and maintains eligibility, which might give voters — myself included — at the very least one other yr to let his candidacy marinate.