The Konerko: The Stat You Didn’t Know You Didn’t Want

I’m going to point out you a brief video compilation I made. Can you determine what these seven baserunning performs from the 2024 season have in widespread?

Admittedly, there’s a purple herring amongst these video clips. Certainly one of them focuses on Bobby Witt Jr. stealing third base, however what I actually needed to focus on was Vinnie Pasquantino stealing second behind him. Right here’s a greater angle than what’s out there on MLB Movie Room:

Does that assist you determine the widespread thread? Don’t really feel dangerous if you happen to nonetheless can’t put your finger on it. That’s form of what I’m banking on. Let me spell it out just a little extra clearly. Excluding Witt, these are the seven gamers you simply watched steal (or try to steal) a base:

There have been 129 gamers who certified for the batting title in 2024. In different phrases, we will say 129 place gamers performed a “full season” (or shut sufficient) this previous yr. Of that group, 126 made an effort to steal at the least one base. The seven gamers you’re are the members of that group who solely tried one stolen base in a full season of alternatives.

I had some reservations about utilizing plate appearances because the taking part in time threshold for a baserunning statistic, so I additionally got here up with a fast different utilizing Baseball Reference’s stolen base alternatives (SBO). I calculated the ratio of stolen base alternatives to plate appearances in 2024. The league averaged one SBO each 2.78 PA. So if 502 PA rely as “a full season of alternatives” on the plate, let’s say that 181 SBO make for a full season of alternatives on the bases. In the end, nevertheless, I received the identical seven gamers utilizing SBO to set the edge for qualification. That additionally means this group had the seven lowest (non-zero) stolen base try charges within the league:

I discover it fascinating to think about the psychological course of that may lead a significant league participant to steal simply as soon as in a 162-game season. What modified in that one second to persuade him to aim one thing he hadn’t tried earlier than? And if he thought he was quick sufficient to attempt stealing as soon as, what stopped him from making an attempt once more? In fact, there are going to be occasions when psychology has nothing to do with it. Generally the celebs align completely to create a great stolen base alternative for even the Yasmani Grandals of the sport. However that’s fairly fascinating too. Whether or not the motivation is intrinsic or extrinsic, it’s enjoyable to consider how folks come to choices they so hardly ever make.

To that finish, I used to be fairly glad with the variability of the seven stolen base makes an attempt within the video above. It’s not only a repetitive sequence of double steals, or performs that actually ought to have been categorized as wild pitches/handed balls, or baserunners making the most of the weakest-armed catchers, or steals that primarily boil right down to defensive indifference. A few of them are very typical trying stolen bases. With none context, may you will have guessed you have been watching each a kind of gamers attempt one thing they wouldn’t attempt once more all yr?

Brendan Rodgers, for instance, might need been out by a number of toes if Marcus Semien hadn’t flubbed this catch. Even so, it’s arduous to imagine Rodgers simply tried his first ever stolen base six seasons and 352 video games into his huge league profession. It seems to be so… odd:

With that stated, it’s not as if this assortment of performs is with out its entertaining moments. Removed from it. It’s unimaginable to not share in Tyler Stephenson’s pleasure as he grins at his teammates and subtly pumps his fist after stealing second with out a throw:

Fittingly, he additionally held up his index finger and appeared to say, “That’s one!”

Equally charming was Witt pointing over at Pasquantino to acknowledge his accomplice in crime after a profitable double steal. It’s much more lovely with just a little little bit of backstory. Pasquantino’s solely different profession stolen base additionally has a enjoyable connection to Witt; the bag itself is now within the Corridor of Fame. Not lengthy earlier than Pasquantino earned his first steal (again in 2022), Witt stole the identical bag for his thirtieth, changing into the second participant in main league historical past with 30-plus steals, 30-plus doubles, and 20-plus house runs in his rookie season. Presumably, Pasquantino is more than pleased to run on Witt’s coattails – and possibly he even received to maintain the bag this time round. Listed here are each of his profession stolen bases:

My favourite a part of Adley Rutschman’s stolen base was how lengthy it took Nationals catcher Keibert Ruiz to understand Rutschman was stealing. His response was so delayed that I really feel the necessity to make clear this wasn’t a delayed steal. In Ruiz’s protection, he was the one catcher who needed to deal with a stolen base try from Rutschman all season. Sadly, the numbers don’t care concerning the aspect of shock. In keeping with Baseball Savant’s Caught Stealing Above Common metric, this was Ruiz’s greatest failure of the yr (-0.76 CSAA).

I did my greatest to line up two totally different angles of the play so you may actually see how lengthy Ruiz took to answer the sudden risk on the bases. You may also see Rutschman watching his fellow backstop for the very same motive:

Jorge Soler’s stolen base is a superb instance of every little thing coming collectively completely to provide the slugger a chance to run. Austin Barnes was catching for the Dodgers that day as an alternative of Will Smith. Smith was the perfect throwing catcher within the league this previous yr; Barnes was one of many worst. One batter earlier, Blake Treinen had changed Alex Vesia on the mound. Treinen has been considerably worse than Vesia at controlling the working recreation over the previous a number of years. Furthermore, Treinen’s pitches have been coming in just a little slower than regular that day. His common sweeper in 2024 clocked in at 83.9 mph; the sweeper Soler ran on was a tick and a half slower.

It was additionally an incredible second within the recreation for Soler to take a threat. There have been two outs within the eighth inning of a tied ballgame. The following hitter due up, Heliot Ramos, was mired in a post-All-Star Sport droop and had poor platoon splits in opposition to right-handed pitching. Soler’s stolen base put him in scoring place for a red-hot Tyler Fitzgerald. He elevated San Francisco’s win likelihood by +0.27. His awkward slide into second base tells you every little thing you should learn about how hardly ever he does this, however he actually picked a very good second to provide it a go:

As for Marcell Ozuna, I simply maintain questioning what on earth compelled him to steal a base for the primary time in 385 video games. He went 12-for-14 on stolen base makes an attempt in 2019 with the Cardinals. Then, from 2020-23 with the Braves, he swiped simply two luggage in three makes an attempt – all of which got here throughout the identical two-week span in mid-Could 2022. He didn’t steal one other base (and even attempt) till the ultimate week of the 2024 season.

What was it about this specific scenario that satisfied him he was able to attempt once more? He was already in scoring place, and the Braves have been already up by two within the backside of the eighth. The hard-throwing Carlos Hernández gave him the stink eye proper earlier than tossing his pitch. Salvador Perez, whereas not the perfect at catching would-be baserunners, is actually no slouch in that division. He simply may have nabbed Ozuna if his throw hadn’t are available about 10 toes greater than the place it wanted to be. Maybe the one factor working in Ozuna’s favor was Perez’s pure shock, nevertheless it seems that was all he wanted:

I’ve principally gone by these performs in chronological order, however you may discover I left out the one failed try of the bunch. That’s as a result of I merely needed to save essentially the most entertaining instance for final. Josh Bell’s TOOTBLAN between first and second base is the one one among these makes an attempt you may watch and say with confidence, “Yeah, that appears like a man who hasn’t stolen a base in nearly six years.”

Certainly one of two issues occurred right here. Both Bell was planning to get in a rundown within the hopes that Joc Pederson would have time to sneak house from third base, or he initially thought he may efficiently steal second, then realized the Marlins had him lifeless to rights, and tried to salvage the play by giving Pederson an opportunity to scramble house. Regardless, it was a poor resolution. If Bell ever thought he’d be protected, it was a dreadful miscalculation. And if he thought he may convey the run house, it was a dreadful miscalculation.

For one factor, why would the Diamondbacks wish to sacrifice an out for a run so early within the recreation, particularly after they’re already within the lead? And in the event that they’re ever going to attempt such a play, why attempt it with Bell (ninth percentile dash velocity) on first and Pederson (twelfth percentile dash velocity) on third? Pederson was nonetheless a number of steps away from crossing house when Xavier Edwards tagged out Bell to finish the inning:

Bell’s baserunning was so poor that he didn’t even give himself the prospect to get right into a pickle. As an alternative, it was a rundown in essentially the most literal sense: Edwards ran him down. Bell was so gradual on the pivot that he seemed like Wile E. Coyote after he’s already run off a cliff however earlier than gravity units in:

Bell couldn’t even achieve an inch of floor within the time between his resolution to vary course and the second Edwards caught the ball and commenced chasing him down:

As soon as he began working again, nevertheless, Bell seemed extra just like the sloth from Zootopia. He was so gradual getting again to first that Edwards by no means needed to think about throwing the ball. As an alternative, he held onto it, stored a watch on Pederson at third base, and caught as much as Bell in lower than three seconds. All Bell may do was a last-ditch dying drop to purchase himself a while earlier than Edwards utilized the tag. “Cease, drop, and roll” may maintain you protected in a hearth, however not on the basepaths.

Impressed by Davy Andrews and the Kutina Membership, I made a decision to call this put up after the participant who greatest exemplified the values of “solely making an attempt one stolen base per certified season” all through his profession. Utilizing the usual threshold for qualification, I discovered eight gamers who achieved the feat at the least 4 occasions. Certainly one of them, Bell, continues to be lively and nonetheless has time to climb up the leaderboard; I would have to dedicate a future put up to his baserunning antics alone. For now, although, one man sits on the high with eight such seasons, three greater than anybody else. It’s Paul Konerko:

Whereas Konerko retired the yr earlier than Statcast started measuring dash velocity, he was well known as one of many slowest runners within the recreation. Nonetheless, he made an effort to steal at the least as soon as (and by no means greater than twice) in 11 of his 18 main league seasons. He retired with 9 stolen bases in 13 makes an attempt. So I hereby dub a certified season through which a participant solely makes an attempt one stolen base a “Konerko.” Congratulations to all who achieved the feat in 2024. Could you all proceed to run yearly!