Let’s simply put the headline up straight away. Luis Severino is now an Athletic:
BREAKING: Proper-hander Luis Severino and the A’s are in settlement on a three-year, $67 million contract, sources inform ESPN. It’s the largest assure within the historical past of the A’s franchise. And even with the qualifying supply hooked up, Severino acquired nicely over market expectations.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 5, 2024
Now this is an fascinating free agent signing. The A’s simply signed the second-biggest deal of the offseason thus far, and the most important in franchise historical past. They’ve one different participant with a assured contract on the staff – and that’s lefty reliever T.J. McFarland, making $1.8 million in 2025. This can be a sea change when it comes to how the staff operates, so let’s speak about why they did it and the methods it might succeed or fail.
First issues first: The A’s might use some pitching. They had been higher than you’d assume in 2024 – they received 19 extra video games than their dispiriting 2023 marketing campaign. Three totally different A’s hitters – Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, and JJ Bleday – eclipsed three wins above substitute, the primary time that had occurred because the staff shipped out Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. All three of these guys are younger and below staff management for some time. Shea Langeliers and Zack Gelof each seem like good on a regular basis gamers. Jacob Wilson is an intriguing high prospect. If it weren’t for the general John Fisher stink of the franchise, this lineup would really feel mighty tantalizing.
That pleasure doesn’t prolong to the beginning rotation – or at the least it didn’t earlier than in the present day. JP Sears was the staff’s “ace” – however solely by the method of elimination. He threw 180 2/3 innings of 4.38 ERA, 4.71 FIP competence, the sort of numbers which may get you demoted to swingman on a playoff staff. That was within the cavernous confines of the Oakland Coliseum, not in bandbox Sutter Well being Park, and Sears is a fly ball-oriented pitcher. Issues acquired dicier from there; Sears plus Joey Estes, Mitch Spence, and J.T. Ginn would make for probably the most nameless high 4 within the majors.
Severino may not be a capital-A ace anymore, however he’s a dependable pitcher who simply accomplished a rousing comeback yr with the Mets, pitching a full season for the primary time since 2018 and delivering stable leads to the method. His stuff improved because the yr wore on, although his stamina didn’t fairly comply with go well with; regardless of a lackluster full-season strikeout price, he seemed way more like his previous self by the tip of the yr. His 11.1% second-half swinging strike price is strictly equal to his profession mark, an encouraging signal for a man with loads of expertise however a scary harm historical past.
It’s not arduous to see how that can profit the A’s. He’s their finest pitcher straight away, and he’s even good in a approach that ought to play nicely in a small stadium. There are lots of strikeouts and grounders in his recreation, and the sinker he launched in 2024 appears to be like like a fantastic addition to his arsenal. He’s now sinker/four-seamer/sweeper towards righties and extra balanced towards lefties, utilizing his glorious changeup as an equalizing instrument. It’s an exceedingly trendy pitch combine, and nothing in any respect like his final full season with the Yankees, when he threw greater than 50% four-seamers to everybody.
The dream end result for the A’s is a full season of, say, 3.50-ERA ball. The dream can also be that he’ll carry somewhat identify recognition to a franchise sorely missing in it. Rooker is superior and a social media darling, however that is the staff’s first yr in a brand new metropolis, and Severino may be the one participant on the staff {that a} informal baseball fan has heard of (give or take Mason Miller, the rationale I’ve centered on the rotation as a substitute of the complete pitching workers when speaking about how the A’s want to enhance).
I’m unsure which of those issues extra. The staff continues to be a protracted shot to make the playoffs in 2024, however maybe much less of a protracted shot than you may count on. That hitting core is not any joke. The potential minor league reinforcements are intriguing. There are a number of holes within the roster – third base and left subject, simply to call a couple of – that could possibly be rapidly patched at affordable charges given the latest development of bat-first veterans in free company. The large holdup was all the time going to be pitching, and Severino is a pleasant begin towards fixing it. If the A’s are honest of their want to extend payroll to roughly $100 million, he received’t be the final starter they signal both.
Concerning the cash: This can be a lot greater than each the group and I anticipated Severino to get. I used to be decrease on him even in comparison with consensus, anticipating a three-year, $39 million deal, and the group got here in at three years and $48 million. Pitching has been in excessive demand thus far this yr, with each single deal coming in increased than our estimates, however this one stands out even there. On this case, although, I believe I perceive why: The vacation spot issues.
Does a serious league free agent, one used to the trimmings of huge league life, need to reside in Sacramento and play in a Triple-A stadium for 81 video games a yr? Gamers are clearly keen to – the majors are the majors – however when you’re already generationally rich and in complete management of the place you play, the A’s must be towards the underside of the desirability checklist. Their stadium saga is a nationwide punchline. The fanbase they simply left staged reverse boycotts. Given equivalent contract affords, I can’t think about many gamers would choose the A’s, significantly given California’s state tax regime.
The answer: Pay more cash! In my view, that’s what the A’s did right here. Tons of contenders certainly reached out to Severino. He’s in the identical broad group as Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, and Michael Wacha (who signed an extension somewhat than hit free company): helpful arms who can begin a playoff recreation for you. Offers like that always come right down to finest match – until one staff affords much more cash than the remaining. In different phrases, the Athletics made Severino a proposal he couldn’t refuse.
In that sense, it may be an overpay, however it’s a essential one. Somebody needed to be the primary free agent within the door, and I’m undoubtedly not counting McFarland, a 35-year-old journeyman with 0.9 profession WAR. Earlier than signing Severino, the A’s had a projected payroll of $34 million for 2025. Heck, they simply signed the most important contract in franchise historical past, and we nonetheless undertaking them for the bottom payroll within the majors subsequent yr by $13 million. I believe the staff would have gotten in hassle – precise, risk-of-monetary-penalty hassle – with the league if it had so overtly flouted free company.
Along with a pleasant payday, Severino acquired an choose out after the second yr of his deal. That’s helpful to him on a number of fronts. If he continues to develop into his new pitch combine and turns again the clock to 2018 when it comes to outcomes, he’s younger sufficient to signal one other profitable multi-year deal after the 2026 season. If the A’s are an absolute catastrophe and he’s not having enjoyable enjoying there, he can all the time bail after two years somewhat than stick it out for all three. These are each helpful escape valves, and player-friendly choices look like an effective way for the A’s to entice extra gamers to signal.
I’m not prepared to provide a ultimate opinion on this one till I see the remainder of the staff’s offseason plans. However provisionally, I like this. The A’s had been higher in 2024 than most individuals realized. They really want to begin getting higher quickly in the event that they need to keep away from being a punchline all through their Sacramento tenure, and even into their eventual transfer to Las Vegas. They acquired a star with identify recognition to placed on high of their rotation and splash on banners throughout two cities, and so they did it in a approach that builds for each 2025 and the long run. Two thumbs up on this one thus far. The one bummer is that the A’s might have used a deal like this final yr in Oakland, however higher late than by no means.