Your Annual Adolis García Examine-in

I’ve been working at FanGraphs lengthy sufficient — greater than two full years now — that I’ve began to construct a monitor file. By that I imply that once I get one thing proper, I can return and gloat about it.

In February 2023, I wrote about Rangers outfielder Adolis García: An influence-over-hit participant who struggled to get on base and didn’t play a premium place. Some years in the past, I used to be at a Starbucks a pair blocks from my home once I noticed somebody who appeared like an ex-girlfriend of mine a couple of tables away. On additional reflection, I don’t suppose it was actually her, however I packed up my pc, downed my macchiato, went dwelling, and by no means got here again. You may by no means be too cautious.

I’d ordinarily keep away from gamers like García with even larger alacrity. However, I reasoned that the Rangers, having invested far more closely in pitching than hitting, wanted their proper fielder to be at his finest in the event that they hoped to realize something in 2023. And García had made excellent contact the earlier season, however had not been rewarded accordingly. So regardless of my trepidation concerning his total talent set, I predicted that García would take a step ahead.

This a lot he did, and extra. García not solely packed on 50 factors of slugging proportion, going from 27 dwelling runs to 39, he practically doubled his stroll charge and took his OBP from an excellent .300 to .328, which is… legitimately good! Certain sufficient, the Rangers profited from this growth. García made the All-Star workforce — on advantage this time, not as a pity choice from a last-place workforce that wanted to ship a heat physique, as was the case for him in 2021 — and was one of many Rangers’ postseason standouts.

In 15 postseason video games, the person with the iron midsection hit eight dwelling runs and put up a batting line of .323/.382/.726. García homered in every of the ultimate 4 video games — and drove in not less than one run in every of the ultimate six video games — of a seven-game ALCS win over the archrival Astros. This effort, culminating in a 4-for-5, two-homer, five-RBI Recreation 7, received García ALCS MVP honors.

García didn’t make it to the top of the World Collection; in Recreation 3, he strained an indirect muscle and missed the ultimate two video games of the postseason. Regardless that García had hit one — I consider the technical time period is “piss missile” — after one other all through October, his damage wasn’t trigger for panic. As a substitute, it felt like García had exerted himself so ferociously in pursuit of victory that his physique actually fell other than the pressure simply as his workforce crossed the end line. Just like the titular battlestar Galactica or Herbie the Love Bug. A heroic, if painful, finish.

And that’s most likely the final time most of you considered Adolis García. The Rangers, riddled as soon as once more by accidents, put up a fairly limp protection of their World Collection title: 78-84, nearer to the A’s than first place.

As for the breakout star-turned-playoff hero, right here’s a little bit of trivia that’ll make your mouth itchy: This previous season, seven place gamers performed sufficient to qualify for the batting title but in addition performed poorly sufficient to finish up under substitute stage. 4 of them modified groups midseason — i.e. their efficiency was rewarded with a one-way ticket to Wherever However Right here. Two others performed for the White Sox, and had been due to this fact most likely the very best gamers on that accursed roster. The seventh participant was Adolis García.

García performed 154 video games and contributed 25 dwelling runs, however he hit a meager .224/.284/.400. That’s a 92 wRC+, -0.2 WAR, and the primary sub-.200 ISO of his profession.

So what occurred to you, man?

I do know I’ve been speaking about García as a hitter, however the largest a part of his weird 2024 stoop has been defensive. García was among the finest defensive proper fielders in baseball in 2023, with plus vary and one of many strongest and Most worthy outfield arms within the sport. It’s robust to place up a constructive defensive WAR worth in proper discipline — so odious is the positional adjustment — however in 2023, García was one among solely six gamers to do this.

He completed second in defensive WAR amongst proper fielders with not less than 500 innings on the place, behind solely Fernando Tatis Jr. and simply forward of Jason Heyward and Ramón Laureano, two gamers identified for his or her protection above all else. This season, García’s protection tanked, from 2.9 runs above common to 17.0 runs under common. That accounts for nearly 40% of his journey from All-Star to sub-replacement stage.

Let’s put it one other method; since 2021, just one different participant has seen a much bigger decline in defensive worth in consecutive full seasons: J.T. Realmuto from 2022 to 2023 . García went from three outs above common to 12 outs under common, that’s a dropoff from the 82nd percentile to the primary percentile for vary.

García is kind of a sturdy participant; in 4 seasons as a significant league common, he’s by no means performed fewer than 148 video games nor batted fewer than 622 instances. However this can be a musclebound 31-year-old who ended his earlier season with a core muscle damage and has had a persistent knee situation that’s bothered him up to now two seasons. Which may clarify a dropoff in vary and dash pace, although Rangers GM Chris Younger denied that his struggles had been injury-related.

Younger definitely watched García play greater than I did this previous 12 months, and he possible is aware of extra about his beginning proper fielder’s well being than anybody other than the person himself. And with the season having been over actually for seven weeks — and figuratively for for much longer than that — there’s no instantly apparent motive to suspect that Younger is mendacity or obfuscating right here.

But when García wasn’t carrying an damage, there’s motive to suspect that he’s misplaced a step not simply by way of foot pace, however on the plate as effectively. And that could possibly be an actual downside.

In 2023, García hit absolutely the bejeezus out of the ball. When he made contact in 2024, he might nonetheless make good contact, however considerably extra bejeezus remained inside the ball.

We don’t have swing pace information for 2023, so it’s robust to make a comparability with certainty, but it surely appears to be like to me like he’s misplaced a tick. You wouldn’t suppose this simply taking a look at him, however García has by no means hit fastballs — significantly four-seamers — particularly effectively. In 2023, he hit .197 towards four-seamers, making it the one pitch he noticed not less than 100 of and ended up with a damaging run worth on. His whiff charge of 34.4% was larger than his whiff charge on curveballs, as an illustration, and inside a degree and a half of his highest whiff charge towards any type of pitch.

However, when he might get bat on ball he did injury, with a SLG of .490 and an xSLG of .482 towards four-seam fastballs. This previous 12 months, the contact points remained, however the energy additionally evaporated: .310 SLG and .385 xSLG towards four-seamers, leaving him 15 runs under common towards the game’s default pitch, in accordance with Baseball Savant. That minus-15 is tied for the worst efficiency by any hitter towards any specific pitch kind within the majors in 2024, out of greater than 3,500 hitter-pitch kind combos.

Is there one thing in regards to the form of a four-seamer that will get García’s goat? Theoretically, a hitter with fly ball tendencies would have a swing form higher suited to sinkers and the like, proper? Perhaps, but it surely appears to be like to me like the issue is with excessive velo, and it’s getting worse.

I don’t wish to be all doom and gloom a couple of participant who was so impactful simply a short while in the past. And to be truthful, García got here out of the gate on fireplace in 2024 earlier than enduring a three-month stoop that lasted to the top of the primary half. And a number of the contact high quality points most likely should do with the truth that as García struggled, he reverted to pre-2023 kind and began chasing extra out of the zone and swinging on the first pitch extra typically. His stroll charge dropped from 10.3% to 7.1% as his chase charge rose from 29.3% to 33.6%. (Although his strikeout charge has remained hilariously constant since 2022, various solely two tenths of a proportion level throughout three wildly totally different offensive seasons.)

However suffice it to say, I’m a bit nervous about García going ahead, as a result of when the bat pace goes for a participant like this, there’s not an entire lot else for him to contribute. Which is why I’m so antsy about this profile within the first place. I used to be proper about García as soon as; I’d want to not be proper about him once more.