It was an ideal honor when Mark Simon of Sports activities Data Options requested me to vote for this 12 months’s Fielding Bible Awards. If you happen to haven’t heard of them earlier than, they’re an alternative choice to Gold Gloves that have been devised by SIS and John Dewan in 2006. A panel of specialists votes for 10 gamers throughout the majors at every place, in addition to a multi-position award and a defensive participant of the 12 months. The awards might be launched tomorrow, October 24, at 2 p.m. ET.
Think about my shock after I obtained requested to be a kind of specialists. I take into account myself a powerful analyst, however that is the massive time: Peter Gammons is a frequent voter, and it’s downright terrifying to be in comparison with him. So if I used to be going to do that, I needed to do it proper. I did what anybody would do in my place: I had an extended dialog with MLB Chief Knowledge Architect Tom Tango about the right way to consider defensive methods.
Yeah, it’s good to have buddies in excessive locations, what can I say? One of the urgent questions I had after I sat all the way down to compile my poll was how a lot consideration to pay to the assorted defensive grading methods on the market. There’s DRS and FRV, the 2 flagship choices. There’s Baseball Prospectus’s DRP and the legacy system UZR. All of them purport to measure defensive worth, and so they all accomplish that with barely totally different methodology. They don’t all the time agree. To offer you an instance, Taylor Partitions is both 12 runs above common (DRS), two runs under (FRV), or someplace in between (6.6 DRP, 3.8 UZR).
He’s not the one one. There are a number of gamers who defensive methods disagree about. Earlier than I may vote for 100 defenders (10 per place), I made a decision that I wanted to do much more setup work to make it possible for I used to be working with the right knowledge. I began by checking how correlated every system was to itself from one 12 months to the following. I centered on three pairs of years: 2021-2022, 2022-2023, and 2023-2024. I used these as a result of Statcast modified the info assortment methodology from Trackman to HawkEye cameras in 2020, however the 2020 season was too abbreviated to get giant pattern dimension defensive metrics.
Along with searching for how nicely one system was self-correlated, I checked out how nicely every system did at predicting the different methods in 12 months two. There’s an fascinating philosophical query right here: If one system may be very constant, or in different phrases thinks the identical factor about gamers from one 12 months to the following, how vital is it that it matches different methods?
In and of itself, not a lot! However you may think about tons of ways in which a metric that’s self-correlated however does a poor job of predicting others may go unsuitable. Perhaps that system may very well be assigning grades primarily based on final identify, or top, or another arbitrary metric that doesn’t change from one 12 months to the following. However Tango had a strong suggestion to keep away from that: Take a look at each system towards a naive method of measuring protection. I selected assists per ball in play. I then examined every system towards that to make it possible for the methods have been doing what they are saying they do on the field: Measuring fielders’ capacity to show batted balls into outs.
I’m not going to enter the specifics of all of the checks I did; this text goes to be lengthy sufficient as it’s, and it’s about who I voted for, not how I got down to consider all defensive metrics. However I’ll say this: Not each metric does the identical at each place. DRP is spectacular with regards to catcher protection, however final within the discipline at first base protection. DRS does greatest, on a relative foundation, at first, although it’s pretty good throughout the infield. FRV is strong throughout the board by each method I may measure. UZR is persistently on the backside of the desk, however it’s nonetheless helpful as a part of the mix of metrics I used.
I created separate metric weights for catcher, first base, non-first-base infield, and outfield. I thought of pitchers and multi-positional defenders individually on a case-by-case foundation. For every place, I first used my weighted common of every defensive place to provide me a baseline. Then I utilized my judgment to maneuver gamers inside this order, significantly after they have been shut in worth. I attempted to have an total mild contact, although. No quantity of eye-test vibes could make up for the truth that each single defensive system agrees that Juan Soto is a below-average fielder, for instance.
I feel that this course of did a superb job of mixing the very best info that publicly obtainable defensive methods can produce with a essential evidence-focused eye on the sport. I watch a ton of baseball, and I additionally spend fairly a little bit of time occupied with the right way to measure participant ability, and the boundaries thereof. I’m simply speaking my very own e book right here, however I actually do consider that is one of the simplest ways I can decide who performed the very best protection in baseball this 12 months. So with out additional ado, let’s have a look at my balloting.
Catcher
1. Patrick Bailey
2. Cal Raleigh
3. Jake Rogers
4. Alejandro Kirk
5. Austin Wells
6. Bo Naylor
7. Freddy Fermin
8. Christian Vázquez
9. Francisco Alvarez
10. Gabriel Moreno
First issues first: Patrick Bailey was the simplest vote I made on your complete poll. He’s the very best catcher defender no matter the way you wish to calculate it. He’s the very best receiver in baseball, essentially the most invaluable defensive ability there’s. He’s solely common at blocking pitches, however that isn’t an enormous driver of worth. And he’s demonstrably wonderful at controlling the operating recreation, an enormous deal for a Giants group filled with groundball pitchers who battle to carry runners on. Consider it this manner: Bailey performed 908 innings at catcher and opponents tried to steal second 64 instances. He threw out 30% of them. In the meantime, his backup Curt Casali caught 321 innings; opponents tried to steal second 34 instances towards him, and he threw out 9% of them. Runners stole 50% extra typically, and succeeded at an outrageous clip, when Bailey wasn’t round. He’s an enormous a part of San Francisco’s run prevention plans, and no catcher in baseball even approaches his defensive worth.
Freddy Fermin didn’t play a lot within the postseason, as a result of the Royals most popular an offense-first alignment, however that’s no knock on his defensive prowess. He’s an satisfactory receiver, however most of his worth comes from his outrageous throwing arm and clear mechanics. His pop time was practically as quick as Bailey’s, and he’s correct as well. The numbers don’t lie: 23 opponents tried to steal second towards Fermin, and he threw out 14 of them. There’s a simple comparability right here: Salvador Perez caught an analogous variety of innings and opponents tried to steal towards him at an analogous price. He threw out 29% of would-be base stealers. That’s comfortably above common… and it’s not even half of Fermin’s 61% price. What a spectacular season.
Francisco Alvarez and Gabriel Moreno completed in a lifeless statistical warmth, and I’m nonetheless not assured I obtained the order of their rating proper. Alvarez fared higher as a framer, whereas Moreno’s recreation is way extra well-rounded. In the long run, I gave an edge to Alvarez as a result of I feel he has an excessive amount of benefit in an important catcher protection ability, however I wouldn’t be shocked to see him a lot greater or a lot decrease in defensive worth subsequent 12 months. He has unhealthy habits to wash up, however the expertise is certainly there.
First Base
1. Christian Walker
2. Matt Olson
3. Carlos Santana
4. Bryce Harper
5. Ryan Mountcastle
6. Michael Busch
7. Michael Toglia
8. Nathaniel Lowe
9. LaMonte Wade Jr.
10. Freddie Freeman
Not quite a bit to see right here, actually. Christian Walker stays unimaginable; he’s been the very best total defensive first baseman by a mile since he took over the job in Arizona in 2019, and this 12 months was one other wonderful effort. I might have been snug handing the highest spot to anybody within the high three, however Walker’s consistency was a tiebreaker for me. Defensive metrics had these three too near name, however I’m extra assured they obtained him proper due to his historical past.
Bryce Harper had a powerful season in his first full 12 months at first base – simply what you’d count on for a star transitioning down the defensive spectrum. He seems to be proper at dwelling each digging out robust throws and ranging to his proper to make performs. He’d be my early darkish horse decide for subsequent 12 months’s high first base defender; the speed of enchancment for a man who had by no means performed first base professionally earlier than final season is just wonderful.
Second Base
1. Andrés Giménez
2. Brice Turang
3. Otto Lopez
4. Marcus Semien
5. Ketel Marte
6. Nico Hoerner
7. Bryson Stott
8. Xander Bogaerts
9. Jeff McNeil
10. Michael Massey
Andrés Giménez and Brice Turang stood out to me as a transparent high duo. Giménez has the mathematical edge after mixing defensive metrics – and he appeared higher to my eye, too. He and Turang are each plus shortstops taking part in down a rung on the defensive spectrum, so it’s no shock that they’re on the high right here. I used to be significantly impressed by Giménez’s capacity to make performs up the center. He has the strongest throwing arm of any second baseman by a mile, and he makes use of that to his benefit. Nobody in baseball is healthier at planting and turning from outrageous positions to make a powerful throw to first.
I gave Xander Bogaerts a down-ballot vote as a result of I used to be very impressed together with his enchancment at second because the 12 months went on. I thought of six gamers for the final three spots, and fairly frankly they may have gone in any order. Bogaerts completed first of the bunch as a result of I feel he would have been additional up the checklist with a full season to deal with second. He switched again to shortstop after Ha-Seong Kim’s damage and thus performed solely 735 innings on the keystone. Given how nicely he took to it, I used that as a tiebreaker.
Jeff McNeil and Michael Massey have been in comparable boats; not a ton of innings, however affordable total defensive numbers nonetheless. I voted for McNeil as a kind of lifetime achievement nod. He’s not ok to win certainly one of these awards, however he’s been an underrated defender for some time now. He doesn’t look the half. The Mets nonetheless conceal him in an outfield nook every so often. However he’s an above-average defender at second base, which places him proper on the fringes of the highest 10 most years. In my uncooked rating, he really got here in eleventh, a hair behind Nicky Lopez. He’s simply on right here as a result of somebody ought to acknowledge his protection.
Massey is headed the opposite path. He missed a bit of time this 12 months – two totally different IL stints will try this. However he hit sufficient to play most days, and he additionally improved considerably at second. I feel he’s headed for higher defensive days; he’s on right here so I can say I used to be there on the bottom ground.
Shortstop
1. Ezequiel Tovar
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Dansby Swanson
4. Masyn Winn
5. Anthony Volpe
6. Brayan Rocchio
7. J.P. Crawford
8. Bobby Witt Jr.
9. Zach Neto
10. Corey Seager
This was the hardest poll for me. There have been six gamers I felt snug placing within the high spot on the poll – which meant that each time I made a poll, I had 5 voices in my head nagging at me that it was the unsuitable selection. Ezequiel Tovar was my preliminary decide, primarily based purely off the attention check and earlier than I had checked out any knowledge, and defensive methods throughout the board completely beloved him, which proved the tiebreaker in the long run. Each machine grading gamers thought he was certifiably elite, a top-six shortstop at worst. Two of the 4 metrics I used had him first. I’ve few doubts about what these methods are choosing up. He’s preternaturally easy and rangy. He’s sure-handed. He had the best price of assists per inning, which was my naive examine of those metrics, of any shortstop. Regardless of that, he had one of many lowest error charges. That mixture might be why each system loves him, and it’s why I picked him over the opposite group of nice defenders.
Francisco Lindor and Dansby Swanson have been right here earlier than. Swanson received the award final 12 months and Lindor has a couple of Gold Gloves in his trophy case. DRS was down on Lindor this 12 months, however it beloved him final 12 months, and FRV thinks he’s simply nearly as good as ever. DRP thinks he improved a ton this 12 months, even. Swanson, too, had a down 12 months in DRS, however he nonetheless seems to be the half and nonetheless grades out nicely in my combination metric. These are the three I gave the longest search for the highest spot.
Masyn Winn, Anthony Volpe, and Brayan Rocchio might be competing for {hardware} for years to return. Winn posted the very best DRS rating of any shortstop, the truth is, although he fared worse elsewhere. I feel he has maybe the best potential of anybody right here due to his ludicrous throwing arm, however he took a bit time to stand up to hurry in the beginning of the 12 months. A method of taking a look at it: He turned balls in play into outs at about the identical price as Tovar, however dedicated errors at triple the speed. He additionally slowed down fairly closely in September, maybe hitting a rookie wall. If I have been speculating on who would be the greatest defensive shortstop in three years’ time, I’d decide both Winn or Tovar.
Volpe is in an analogous boat in my eyes – just a bit worse within the combination. This was an in depth name for me, as a result of they’re dissimilar gamers. Winn is regularly making robust performs by advantage of his arm, whereas Volpe will get by with phenomenal vary and instincts. Two of the massive three defensive metric methods thought Volpe was the higher defender this 12 months, and my combination weighting had them in a lifeless warmth. I gave the tie to the thrower. Rocchio is someplace in between these two when it comes to type, and if this have been a worse crop of defenders, I’d even be joyful placing him first. I simply thought too many of those gamers had superlative years.
Fast down-ballot shoutouts: Corey Seager will get a nod for his exceptional capacity to enhance at shortstop later in his profession; he’s good on the market now! J.P. Crawford might be on the downswing, however man, discuss a gradual performer. He’s only a pleasure to look at defensively, and like Tovar however with the quantity turned down, each defensive system favored what they noticed.
Third Base
1. Matt Chapman
2. Joey Ortiz
3. Ke’Bryan Hayes
4. Nolan Arenado
5. Ryan McMahon
6. Josh Rojas
7. Alex Bregman
8. Ernie Clement
9. José Ramírez
10. Maikel Garcia
If I may have positioned a single identify on this one, I might have. Matt Chapman is the very best by a mile. Everybody agrees. The man is only a wizard. I felt like I used to be that includes him in each 5 Issues at one level this 12 months, and I frightened that it was as a result of I’m simply biased by the place I stay, however nope: He actually makes these performs greater than another third baseman. He’s a part of the previous guard – he, Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, and José Ramírez in all probability aren’t lengthy for this checklist – however this 12 months, he was fairly clearly the very best man on the place.
Ke’Bryan Hayes was proper there with Chapman on a price foundation, however he performed 500 fewer innings. That was sufficient to push him behind Joey Ortiz for me. Ortiz doesn’t fairly seem like he has the arm energy to play third, however appearances are deceiving. Whereas he may give away a couple of outs on balls hit deep within the gap, he makes up for it with certain arms and nice vary. He seems to be to me like a plus shortstop studying third – he is perhaps even higher there by subsequent 12 months.
I used to be extraordinarily excited to vote for Josh Rojas right here. He completely deserves it. That is precisely the place my weighted common defensive system had him – each system aside from UZR thought he was nice, and I don’t put a lot weight on UZR due to its middling reliability and predictive energy. What an enchancment! Rojas was notable for his lack of defensive prowess for years in Arizona. One 12 months in Seattle, and he’s on the shortlist for defensive {hardware}. Nice story.
If in case you have any questions on particular votes, I’d love to speak about them within the feedback. I’ll be again tomorrow with the three outfield spots, pitchers, the multi-positional defender award, and naturally defensive participant of the 12 months. The awards themselves might be introduced tomorrow as nicely. I’m excited to see who wins them – and I’m assured that I did the very best I may in filling out this poll.