What Went Fallacious With the Phillies, and How Can It Be Fastened?

Properly that’s not the way it was purported to go. The Phillies got here into this season as one of many World Collection favorites, having gained the pennant in 2022, then reached the NLCS in 2023. They have been the perfect crew within the Nationwide League for many of the 12 months, and — having gained the membership’s first NL East title since 2011 — have been anticipated to a minimum of repeat the deep playoff runs of the previous two seasons. Ideally, they’d enhance on it and go all the best way.

As an alternative, they’re out on the primary hurdle, having misplaced 3-1 within the NLDS to — and this may be probably the most galling half — a hated division rival who sneaked into the playoffs on the ultimate day, then wanted a lightning strike of a rally off Devin Williams to eke out a three-game win within the Wild Card sequence. However over 4 video games, the Mets have been comprehensively the higher crew. If Nick Castellanos hadn’t had his eyes glaze over white and milky as he accessed the next airplane of consciousness within the final 4 innings of Recreation 2, this might properly have been a sweep.

A crew this gifted and well-resourced could be inside its rights to shrug and run it again in 2025. Certainly, that’s what the Phillies did a 12 months in the past, once they have been 9 outs from going up 3-0 within the NLCS, then misplaced consecutive would-be clinchers at residence. Now, having spit the bit twice in as many playoff sequence, the Phillies are going to should a minimum of take into account altering greater than their postgame playlist.

It’s uncommon to see such a fractious native media scene so solely in settlement, however the consensus is evident: There must be “actual conversations” or a shakeup or some soul-searching. That consensus falls aside whenever you begin to ask about specifics.

So let’s take a look at what can truly be finished.

And let’s begin with what can’t be finished, or shouldn’t be finished.

As disappointing as the top of this season was, I don’t assume anybody can accuse president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski of placing collectively an uncompetitive crew, particularly contemplating how poorly his predecessors fared for a decade. Supervisor Rob Thomson stays fashionable and authoritative within the clubhouse, and insofar as I disagreed with sure of his in-game ways — leaving Aaron Nola in a batter or two too lengthy in Recreation 3, which allowed the Mets to interrupt the sport open, to call one — I’m inclined to chop him some slack after watching the relievers he’s relied on for 2 straight Octobers go full Mitch Williams with no warning.

I’d count on the roster to stay kind of the identical in 2025 as properly. For starters, you don’t simply blow up a 95-win crew due to one dangerous journey to Queens. However the Phillies are type of in the identical boat because the Braves: They’ve locked of their core till kingdom come, which suggests they need to be good for the foreseeable future, however it’s onerous to shuffle the roster to make mandatory upgrades.

The Phillies have $259 million already dedicated to their 2025 payroll, in response to RosterResource, which is the best quantity in baseball. Their solely main league free brokers are all aid pitchers: Jeff Hoffman, Spencer Turnbull (who hasn’t pitched since June), and Carlos Estévez (who solely simply received right here on the commerce deadline). Solely three extra main contributors shall be on expiring contracts subsequent season: Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and Ranger Suárez. Everybody else is underneath crew management by way of a minimum of 2026.

So no matter ails the Phillies shouldn’t be going to be solved by free agent attrition. They’re going to should be proactive. Even so, most of this crew would solely depart Philadelphia if kidnapped by aliens.

Bryce Harper received caught making an attempt to do an excessive amount of in a couple of key moments, however that solely underscored how a lot the Phillies depend on him. He was 4-for-12 with three extra-base hits and 5 walks in 4 video games; Harper both scored or drove in 5 of the Phillies’ 12 runs. If anybody tells you he was the issue, it’s best to re-evaluate with whom you’re spending your time. Schwarber went quiet after his mammoth series-opening residence run: 1-for-15 to finish the sequence, together with the ultimate out. However you’re going to listen to so much about how the Phillies have been too aggressive on the plate, and chopping bait on the crew’s most selective hitter shouldn’t be the best way to do this. Particularly when mentioned hitter has additionally contributed 143 residence runs between the common season and playoffs over the previous three seasons.

And consider it or not, Trea Turner wasn’t the issue both. Not that you may transfer on from him in the event you wished to, simply two seasons into an 11-year contract. However after a fairly brutal oh-fer in Recreation 1, Turner put in a strong sequence from that time on, reaching base 5 occasions throughout Video games 2 and three. You continue to need greater than singles and walks from a participant of his profile, however he’s not on my checklist of gamers I’d accuse of wanting misplaced.

Turner is a polarizing determine in Philadelphia due to the aforementioned contract, in addition to the truth that he began his Phillies tenure in a half-season-long droop. However in 2024, he was nearly precisely as marketed. Let’s evaluate his 2024 numbers to 2 pivotal seasons in his profession: 2019, when he was the third-best place participant on a championship crew, and 2022, his final season with the Dodgers earlier than the Phillies signed him.

When you account for the hamstring harm that value Turner 1 / 4 of the season this 12 months, there was no considerable drop-off. If he’d performed 160 video games in 2024 and produced on the similar fee, he would’ve been a 5.2 WAR participant. Perhaps he’s coming to the top of his time as a shortstop, or perhaps he ought to reduce on the pregame Purple Bull in the course of the playoffs, however since mid-2023, he’s lived as much as his billing.

The opposite space the place change is neither advisable nor potential is the rotation, which had three All-Stars this season — Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, and Zack Wheeler — plus Nola. These 4 all pitched properly sufficient to win on this previous sequence; Phillies starters have been 0-1 towards the Mets, with a 2.53 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. And it’s a superb factor all these guys are doing a superb job, as a result of the Phillies signed Nola, Sánchez, and Wheeler to multi-year contract extensions prior to now 12 months; that trio will make some $68.6 million whole subsequent season, which is greater than the A’s spent on their whole large league roster this 12 months. Taijuan Walker, who didn’t throw a pitch within the 2023 postseason and was left off the 2024 playoff roster altogether, has two years and $36 million left on his deal. He was a high-volume, league-average starter in 2023, however it feels unnecessarily merciless to recount his 2024 season. I’ll provide you with some numbers: a 5.5 Okay-BB%, 7.10 ERA, 6.94 FIP, -1.1 WAR.

Something the Phillies get from Walker going ahead is gravy. If he reinvents himself, provides a pitch, modifications his windup or his conditioning and unlocks the previous Walker, nice. The chances of shifting off of that $36 million are so distant it would behoove the Phillies to attend and see how he seems subsequent spring; this, for anybody who’s curious, is why they didn’t simply minimize him in the course of the season. Both means, as a lot as Walker was a lightning rod in the course of the Phillies’ 33-33 second half, what occurred after was not his fault.

If you happen to’re going in charge a unit, there’s an apparent place to begin.

It’s nothing wanting surprising that the Phillies bullpen cratered towards the Mets. That is, on paper, one of many deepest bullpens within the league. Hoffman, Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering had been unhittable for many of the season. José Alvarado, the crew’s knockout leverage man within the earlier two postseasons, was one thing like no. 5 or no. 6 within the pecking order. When the Phillies made Estévez their large deadline pickup, I assumed it was a misallocation of assets as a result of the incumbent relievers have been so robust.

Throughout this postseason, the Phillies bullpen allowed 17 runs, 16 of them earned, in simply 12 2/3 innings of labor. Plus two runners inherited from Nola in Recreation 3. That’s an ERA of 11.37, which is the fourth-worst mark in playoff historical past for a bullpen with a minimum of 10 innings pitched. In simply 4 video games, the Phillies blew three saves and posted the third-worst collective WPA by any bullpen in playoff historical past. (One of many two groups that beat them was the 1986 Purple Sox, the travails of whose relievers have been written into legend.)

Hoffman took two of the losses, however it’s not truthful in charge him. This was an all-hands effort.

It bears repeating that these guys have been actually good in the course of the common season. Strahm, Hoffman, Kerkering, Estévez, and Banks all had ERAs underneath 3.00 with the Phillies this 12 months. Strahm and Hoffman have been All-Stars, and Kerkering had a 2.25 FIP to go together with a number of the finest stuff in any bullpen anyplace. This was a meticulously curated group, and Dombrowski has dedicated to his relievers as a lot as his starters. Alvarado and Strahm are each on multi-year contracts. Estévez was introduced over on the deadline at the price of two legit pitching prospects. This isn’t some bunch of jamokes off the road.

However by the top of the sequence, Estévez appeared like the one one who may get the ball from his glove to Realmuto’s within the strike zone with out it getting kabonged into outer area. Till, in fact, Estévez gave up the series-losing grand slam to Francisco Lindor. The plague comes for everybody ultimately.

All of which may’ve been survivable had the offense proven up. The Phillies hit .186/.295/.302 in 4 video games. A few of that was as a result of Mets pitching very properly, however it was additionally self-inflicted. Alarming because the bullpen meltdown was, three or 4 elite relievers all going off the boil on the similar time shouldn’t be actually one thing for which you’ll plan. The offense, alternatively, exhibited lots of the identical irritating issues that sank this crew towards the Diamondbacks in 2023. And that does have a repair aside from hoping for various bounces subsequent October.

The narrative is that the Phillies are a bunch of twitchy, free-swinging knuckle-draggers who by no means met a curveball within the dust they didn’t like. That’s simplifying issues somewhat. As a crew, the Phillies swung at 57 out of 342 pitches outdoors the strike zone, which is just the fifth-highest fee out of the 12 groups on this 12 months’s postseason. They really chased lower than the Mets did.

However they noticed the bottom share of pitches within the coronary heart of the strike zone and the best share of pitches out of the strike zone. The one playoff crew with the next whiff fee was the Orioles, who of their two-game playoff cameo have been the one crew that appeared much more offensively inept than the Phillies did. It’s not so simple as Thomson yelling on the guys to cease swinging at breaking balls within the dust. (Although if he hasn’t tried that but, perhaps it’s value a shot.) There’s a complete ontological knot to untangle first.

The Phillies offense is constructed on selective aggression. Only a few gamers, if any, are higher than Harper at figuring out their pitch to hit and popping out of their sneakers swinging at it. Yr after 12 months, Harper places up ludicrous stroll charges regardless of rating close to the highest of the league in swing fee and within the backside half of the league involved fee. That’s as a result of he’s not afraid to get his cash’s value when he pulls the set off, however has a ok eye to put off a borderline pitch in a three-ball depend.

Only a few gamers share that reward. Schwarber is arguably one among them. Among the many different Phillies, Brandon Marsh is a platoon participant at this level with lots of swing-and-miss, and the Phillies — between Whit Merrifield and Austin Hays — put lots of effort into discovering him a platoon companion with no success. Realmuto is slowing down; as just lately as two years in the past, he was a down-ballot MVP man, however he was a median hitter this season and a no-show within the playoffs. Which isn’t a lot of an exaggeration; Realmuto went 0-for-11, and within the pivotal Recreation 4, he took the bat off his shoulder simply 3 times out of 19 pitches. Bryson Stott generally is a powerful out when he’s locked in however passive when he’s not, and Johan Rojas is simply straight-up not a superb hitter.

No, the irritating hacker popularity actually comes down to 3 gamers: Turner, Castellanos, and Alec Bohm. All three are righties with lengthy swings who preserve their bats within the zone for a very long time and hit for some energy. All three of them spray line drives to all fields once they’re scorching — and look fully hapless once they’re chilly. Castellanos was one among two Phillies hitters, together with Harper, who you may say had an ideal sequence. Turner had his ups and downs.

Bohm was so dangerous I noticed somebody on Twitter evaluate him to Ben Simmons.

Let’s not go that far. However in 4 video games, Bohm managed one stroll, one single, and one contentious benching. He noticed simply 39 pitches in 14 plate appearances, and swung at eight out of 21 pitches outdoors the zone. We consider chasing as a nasty factor since you’ll swing and miss, however Bohm made lots of contact on pitches outdoors the zone, which may be worse — these chases resulted in 4 weak outs, three of them throughout the first two pitches of the at-bat.

The Phillies have lots of hitters who wish to drive the motion early. When the depth of scouting and high quality of pitching goes up in October, that may result in lots of fast outs and comfortable groundballs. Harper can’t be the one one grinding.

What I’m about to say might be going to sound ridiculous. The Phillies lineup was assembled at nice value; it options 5 free agent signees making $20 million a 12 months or extra, plus two first-round picks.

However they want one other hitter.

Particularly, they want somebody who’s going to grind walks and see a ton of pitches, who can sluggish the sport down as an alternative of rushing it up.

In reality, it is a lineup that cries out for Juan Soto. Please subscribe to FanGraphs, the web’s main supplier of such authentic and incisive baseball evaluation.

Sadly for Dombrowski and his merry males, Soto would remedy what ails lots of lineups across the league, so competitors shall be stiff, and the final word value of such a participant shall be preposterously excessive. If proprietor John Middleton desires his effing trophy again badly sufficient, perhaps he’ll discover a spare half billion {dollars} to place in Soto’s checking account. However that may’t be the one plan.

The Phillies have reinforcements approaching the pitching aspect — Andrew Painter, and perhaps Mick Abel and Seth Johnson—from their very own prospect pool. Their finest place participant prospects are nonetheless a pair years away, because of a latest excessive school-happy run on the prime of the draft. So in the event you’re ready for Aidan Miller or Griffin Burkholder to step into the lineup and repair every little thing in 2025, you’re going to be bitterly dissatisfied. That most likely implies that an improve, if it comes in any respect, goes to come back from outdoors the group.

An outfielder would slot proper into the Phillies lineup, however they may create area elsewhere for a second-tier free agent on the infield by shifting Bohm to left. (First basemen like Christian Walker and Pete Alonso are most likely nonstarters, except Harper is inquisitive about returning to the outfield.) One choice is a problem commerce. Suárez is a free agent after this season, and the Phillies will nearly actually add prime pitching prospect Painter to their rotation in 2025. The Marlins have been capable of commerce for Luis Arraez, however solely at the price of Pablo López; maybe Suárez may very well be the anchor of an analogous deal.

It is determined by how inventive Dombrowski desires to get. They will’t — and shouldn’t — fireplace all the bums. However this lineup, as presently constituted, wants assist. That a lot has change into clear.