Can anybody cease the Mets? That’s not a query I anticipated to be asking this 12 months, except it was “Can anybody cease the Mets from signing marquee free brokers?” or “Can anybody cease the Mets from imploding in probably the most Mets-y method possible?” However because the Nationwide League Division Sequence begins, the Mets are on a kind of team-of-destiny runs that appears like a self-fulfilling prophecy. There’s no deficit they’ll’t overcome, no lead they’ll’t squander after which retake within the subsequent inning. They’re upping the diploma of problem considerably beginning Saturday, although: The Phillies have been among the best groups in baseball all 12 months, they usually’re rested and prepared for what guarantees to be an thrilling sequence.
A story of the tape – Francisco Lindor is sweet at x, Bryce Harper is sweet at y, Zack Wheeler and Kodai Senga will sq. off in Recreation 1, so on and so forth – doesn’t really feel like the appropriate strategy to describe this sequence. As a substitute, I’m going to concentrate on how every group tries to win, and the way these plans are probably to go awry.
The Mets have thrived offensively this 12 months with a easy blueprint: energy on the high of the lineup and Jose Iglesias someway doing every little thing else. Lindor is so good that he’s virtually an offense unto himself: He led the Mets in runs (107), RBI (91), steals (29), on-base share (.344), slugging share (.500), and just about every little thing else you’ll be able to think about, aside from dwelling runs (33). In that class, he completed one off the group lead behind Pete Alonso. Alonso had a down 12 months in 2024, however he’s excellent on the ability the Mets most want from him: clobbering homers to drive in Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and typically Iglesias. Mark Vientos capabilities as a second Alonso; he’s there to hit homers or advance runners with situational hitting, however he’s contemporary out of situational hitting.
This plan has labored fairly nicely all 12 months, and it’s labored significantly nicely within the string of playoff and playoff-like video games they’ve gained this week. The highest 5 hitters mixed to drive in all of the runs in Monday’s playoff-clinching win towards the Braves. Iglesias and Vientos keyed Tuesday’s victory over the Brewers. A 3-run Alonso homer was all of the scoring they wanted to ship Milwaukee dwelling Thursday night time. It’s hardly an unsustainable plan; the Mets had been seventh in wRC+ (109) and in addition runs scored (768) this 12 months, near-doppelgängers for the Phillies.
What might go unsuitable with New York’s offense? It’s fairly straightforward to know. If Lindor, Alonso, and Vientos aren’t supplying the facility, runs are exhausting to come back by. Even with Iglesias handing over a career-best season as a slap-hitting spark plug, the Mets play station to station. They’re one of many worst baserunning groups within the majors. Lindor is the largest exception to this rule, although Starling Marte, Tyrone Taylor, and Nimmo are additionally keen to take an additional base right here and there. For probably the most half, runs come both from the mixed excellence of the group’s finest hitters or from stringing collectively a ton of singles to drive dwelling among the plodders.
Shutting down the Mets would possibly sound easy – preserve their good hitters off the board – but it surely’s not straightforward. Alonso and Vientos crush fastballs. Nimmo and Lindor excel towards chase-seeking secondaries. Iglesias will swing at something and regularly make contact – and this 12 months, he’s turning most of that contact into flared singles. One-trick pony pitchers who lean on one or the opposite of a nasty slider or big fastball will run into hassle towards the Mets.
Fortunately for the Phillies, that doesn’t describe their starters in any respect. Wheeler is a five-trick pony, at minimal: He throws six pitches, and solely his split-change is beneath common. He additionally has nice command and pitches deep into video games. I imply, clearly he does: He’s one of many easiest pitchers in baseball, and he has been because the day he went to Philadelphia. Aaron Nola is an in a position second banana; he’ll have his biggest benefit towards Alonso and Vientos due to a hammer curveball.
Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez may have their work lower out for them on this sequence – lefty sinkerballers don’t match up nicely towards the Mets’ righty energy bats. Nonetheless, they’re wonderful choices as no. 3 and 4 starters. The third and fourth video games of the sequence are sandwiched by journey days, and Wheeler and Nola usually give the bullpen a break on their begins. That units the Phillies as much as go bullpen-heavy when their lefties are on the mound and assault the highest of the Mets order with a succession of nice relievers.
The Philadelphia bullpen was among the best within the majors all 12 months, a lot in order that it’s nonetheless a high unit regardless of buying and selling away a number of contributing relievers on the deadline. That energy shall be blunted considerably towards the Mets, although; New York completely crushed lefty pitching this 12 months, and the Phillies have three standout southpaw relievers. The most effective spot to deploy a lefty might be towards the Lindor-Vientos/Iglesias-Nimmo portion of the order, however that’s not even excellent.
Nonetheless, the Phillies are deep. Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, and even José Ruiz deliver strikeout stuff from the appropriate facet. If I had been managing the Phillies, I’d preserve rotating matchups to stop Vientos and Alonso from seeing any of those arms too usually. I’d combine in among the good lefties towards them in low-leverage spots, and perhaps even prepare for a Taijuan Walker sighting.
Controlling the highest half of the lineup is quite a lot of the problem when dealing with the Mets, and the Phillies definitely have the arms to do it. However baseball being what it’s, that’s no assure of success. Lindor, Nimmo, and Alonso have hit the largest homers of the 12 months for the Mets, all three this week. They got here off of righty relievers with ERAs of three.67, 1.98, and 1.25, respectively. A technique this sequence might go: Philadelphia sends its finest pitchers on the Mets, and the Mets come out victorious.
In fact, the Phillies get to bat too. In some methods, they’re constructed equally to their rivals; the highest of their order options two energy threats and a multi-talented shortstop, and the remainder of the hitters aren’t almost pretty much as good. Of their case, although, the shortstop looks as if a fairly clear third banana as an alternative of the complete offensive id of the group. Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the Phillies offense in some ways. They’ve related skillsets and have produced related worth this 12 months. You’ll battle to make them chase. They’ll swing out of their sneakers making an attempt to hit homers. They may strike out in consequence – however they have a tendency to take action on their very own phrases, taking big hacks at pitches that they’ll obliterate in the event that they make contact.
Trea Turner bats between them and does a little bit little bit of every little thing. I’m anticipating him to amp up the baserunning aggression in October; this was by far the worst baserunning 12 months of his profession, however the playoffs look like a superb time to eschew sensible long-term well being administration and put your foot on the gasoline pedal. Even when he isn’t stealing bases and making aggressive developments, although, he’s an incredible hitter. He’ll get to face a ton of southpaws due to his lineup place between two lefty sluggers, and he’s been 10% higher with the platoon benefit over his prolonged profession.
Like its counterpart in New York, the Philly lineup falls off after its high guys. Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm bat fourth and fifth in some order most days, and at occasions they’ve been nice: Castellanos has a 132 wRC+ within the second half of the season, and Bohm made the All-Star group due to a scorching first half. However that scorching streak from Castellanos introduced his profession mark with the Phillies as much as a 103 wRC+, and 105 for the 2024 season. In the meantime, Bohm cooled off exhausting within the second half (90 wRC+).
I believe the important thing to the Mets offense is how a lot the highest guys can do injury towards excellent opposition. I believe that the important thing to the Phillies lineup, then again, is whether or not the underside half could make life simpler for Harper and buddies. Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh appear to be platoon bats at this level of their careers. Johan Rojas and Edmundo Sosa are the opposite half of these platoons, however they hardly strike concern into opposing pitchers. J.T. Realmuto is the wild card right here; he obtained higher because the 12 months went on, in stark distinction to what you’d count on from a 33-year-old catcher. If he’s extra MVP candidate than defensive specialist who can hit a little bit, the lineup will look deeper and scarier for Mets pitchers. If he and Castellanos flip into pumpkins, the group may be counting on Wheeler and Nola to win quite a lot of 2-1 video games.
Talking of 2-1 duels, the Mets rotation strains up pretty nicely towards the Phillies, although it merely doesn’t have the identical firepower as Philadelphia does in its rotation. Senga will get the beginning in Recreation 1, however with solely 19 2/3 innings pitched throughout all ranges this 12 months due to a number of accidents, he’s most likely not going to pitch deep into the sport. Tylor Megill would’ve been subsequent in line to attract that begin, so he’ll presumably be readily available as an extended reliever if needed. Senga’s look may very well be extraordinarily brief; the final time he threw a number of aggressive innings got here in the midst of July in a minor league recreation, and even that look lasted solely three innings.
Luis Severino was Senga’s substitute atop the rotation this 12 months; relying on how Senga seems in Recreation 1, both he or Severino would presumably draw a Recreation 5 project. Because of the way in which the schedule strains up, Severino can be on common relaxation for that one even after he pitches Recreation 2, a boon to the Mets after they performed 5 video games in 4 days this week. The Senga/Megill recreation is the hardest one to determine; I believe that will probably be a de facto bullpen recreation except Senga seems dominant and covers no less than a couple of innings, which is principally unknowable at this level.
When the sequence shifts again to New York, the Mets will deliver out their lefties: Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana. Manaea was Severino’s equal this 12 months, and I believe I’d take him over Severino if I had to decide on one among them for one recreation solely, however his relaxation schedule gained’t permit him to go twice within the sequence. Quintana remains to be the identical pitcher – he’s artful and may nonetheless spin a pleasant curveball, however his nice expertise is in bulk innings, not dominance. If he can get the Phillies chasing within the early going, he would possibly put up a begin to rival his six scoreless innings towards the Brewers in Recreation 3 of the Wild Card Sequence. If he begins falling behind within the rely, it may be an extended night time for the Mets, and a brief one for him.
I count on the Mets to be extraordinarily cautious about letting Schwarber and Harper see the identical pitcher for a 3rd time. I’d be keen to provide New York’s two lefty starters an opportunity the third time by way of, however I wouldn’t let Megill attempt it if the sport is shut, and I wouldn’t really feel nice about Senga’s (assuming he may even face 18+ batters) or Severino’s possibilities. That places the group in a difficult spot, as a result of it doesn’t have many efficient lefty relievers. David Peterson is the best choice, however he’s a swingman, not a high-leverage arm. Danny Younger is the one different lefty on the squad, and whereas he’s a basic sinker/slider LOOGY, I wouldn’t be tripping throughout myself to get him into the sport towards two top-tier sluggers.
In a method, although, that lack of lefties may very well be releasing. Platoon matchups aren’t as vital as simply utilizing good pitchers, and if the Mets aren’t forcing themselves to play the handedness recreation, they’ll flip their finest relievers free towards the highest of the lineup and work every little thing else out later. Edwin Díaz is comfy getting into video games earlier than the ninth inning and in addition comfy getting greater than three outs; I’d take him over Peterson and Younger any day. Reed Garrett, José Buttó, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek might all draw lefty-slugger obligation as nicely. The important thing shall be various up the seems whereas deploying good relievers in good spots, which is simpler mentioned than completed. Carlos Mendoza has completed a superb job of it to this point, although. He’ll get an opportunity to sink or swim on a much bigger stage beginning Saturday.
Due to the construction of this text, it most likely looks as if I believe the sequence is a toss-up. I don’t; the lineups may be related, however the rotations aren’t. I’d name the groups evenly matched in Video games 3 and 4, however Wheeler is miles higher than anybody on the Mets employees. That’s two video games the place the Phillies may have an enormous benefit within the early innings. Nola isn’t any slouch both. ZiPS offers the Phillies an enormous 66% likelihood of advancing due to their edge in beginning pitching. Playing markets are almost as bullish; they’ve the Phillies round 65% to win the sequence. Our easy projection-based mannequin offers them a 64% likelihood; PECOTA has it 60/40. The Phillies are positively the higher group.
A much less intrepid preview author would possibly go away it at that. I’ll exit on a limb, although, and say that I believe these odds are too low on the Mets. They aren’t 50% to win this sequence, clearly. The Phillies are better-rested and gained the NL East by six video games. However the two groups had the identical BaseRuns file. The Mets didn’t simply get scorching this week; they’ve one of the best file in baseball since June 1. They’ve outscored the Phillies over that stretch and allowed fewer runs. They had been actually abysmal within the early going this 12 months, and full-season stats and projections do a greater job of predicting playoff success than arbitrary-endpoint streaks, however this isn’t some scrappy underdog squad. The Mets are legit and fairly able to going toe-to-toe with anybody on this juggernaut-light 12 months.
So my prediction? Mets in 4. I’m going towards what the numbers say, and I don’t assume I’m 50% more likely to be proper. However I do assume that the broader baseball public is just too assured in Philly’s possibilities, and I like going towards the grain. So there you will have it. In a matchup the place the groups are extra alike than they’re completely different, small edges might decide the sequence. Gimme “OMG” remixes with Pitbull over a will-they-won’t-they relationship with “Dancing On My Personal,” significantly in the event that they aren’t going with the unique Robyn model. And if I choose the Mets after which they get drubbed in three lopsided video games? Properly, what’s extra Mets-y than that? It’s a no-lose proposition.