I’ve heard the phrase “monitor meet” extra this yr than at any level since I ran monitor in highschool. A few of that’s Olympics-related – nice monitor meet! – however most of it’s as a result of analysts like me can’t resist referencing monitor and discipline after we carry up the Milwaukee Brewers. “They flip video games into monitor meets.” “They’ve gamebreaking pace.” You’ve little doubt learn these two sentences (and lots of variations on them) as individuals clarify the staff’s success this yr.
These comparisons aren’t flawed. The Brewers can flat out fly. Brice Turang, the primary batter of at present’s Wild Card recreation towards the New York Mets, slapped a grounder previous Mark Vientos and turned on the afterburners en path to a double. He did it once more within the third. Garrett Mitchell went first to 3rd fantastically. Sal Frelick had a hustle double of his personal. Turang and Jackson Chourio superior adroitly in a two-run fourth. If there are 90 ft mendacity round for the taking, the Brewers will seize them. You must be alert every time there’s an open bag and a Milwaukee participant on base, and so they’ll take away hits with their protection besides.
The Mets, compared, are station-to-station mashers. They hit 30 extra homers than the Brewers this yr and stole 111 fewer bases. The typical Mets hitter is 30 years previous; the typical Brewers hitter is 26.4. If this have been a monitor meet, the Mets wouldn’t be favored. They wouldn’t have a prayer of successful, if I’m being sincere; the Brewers outfield is three-quarters of a 4×100 relay staff, and fourth outfielder Blake Perkins completes the squad. In case you may truly flip a recreation right into a race, the Brewers can be 100% more likely to win this collection (I’m undecided how good anybody on these groups is at excessive bounce or hammer throw, so we’ll go away the “discipline” half apart).
Nobody hit a house run in at present’s recreation. In some senses, then, this was the perfect “monitor meet” recreation. As I discussed, the Brewers tore up the basepaths every time that they had an opportunity. The Mets have been comparatively restrained. They took the odd base on a defensive miscue – Jesse Winker tripled residence two runs after a bobble, and Tyrone Taylor doubled when Chourio took a foul path to a smashed line drive – however that’s not likely their recreation. They struck out extra continuously than the Brewers. Certainly, that is the best-case situation people are describing once they discuss this yr’s Milwaukee squad.
Naturally, then, the Mets gained 8-4. By just about each speed-related statistic, they acquired outplayed. However because it seems, even while you maintain the ball within the yard, most of baseball isn’t about sprinting actually quick in a straight line. The Mets did a ton of little issues effectively, and so they added as much as eight runs towards a high quality opponent.
First, they waited Freddy Peralta out. He got here out throwing primarily fastballs and changeups, placing his slider in his again pocket. The Mets didn’t stroll a ton towards him, however that they had a plan: work counts and attempt to swing at fastballs. Six of their 9 balls in play got here on heaters. Peralta averaged 4.5 pitches per batter and solely lasted 4 innings. It price them on the strikeout entrance – 5 in these 4 innings – however Winker’s well timed triple meant they racked up three runs anyway.
Then got here the important inning, and the Mets truly did flip the sport right into a monitor meet, solely on their phrases. With runners on first and second and two outs, Jose Iglesias slapped a grounder that first baseman Rhys Hoskins fielded deep within the gap. He gathered himself, turned, and tossed to reliever Joel Payamps. Only one drawback: Payamps misplaced the race to the bag. Iglesias, who at age 34 can nonetheless motor, turned on the turbo boosters about midway down the road and beat Payamps to first with an ideal headfirst slide. Taylor, the runner on second, by no means stopped; he scored to tie the sport at 4. An precise footrace – Payamps towards Iglesias, with the Brewers getting an enormous head begin – and the previous dudes pulled it out:
Probably the most “Jose Iglesias” game-tying, RBI single ever. Loopy to think about the place this staff can be with out him. pic.twitter.com/x6EAklkFzA
— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) October 1, 2024
I’m undecided whether or not the Brewers have been flustered by that play, or whether or not it merely wasn’t their day, however issues unraveled shortly from there. Brandon Nimmo reached on an infield single that Willy Adames had an opportunity at – he would’ve wanted to make a spectacular play, however he couldn’t get a grip on the ball in his do-or-die try, and that was that. Vientos crushed a dead-red fastball for a two-run single. J.D. Martinez pinch-hit in a giant spot towards a lefty and smashed a grounder by way of the protection to the other discipline for one more two runs. Vientos and Martinez are sluggish, and so they didn’t hit residence runs, however there are different methods to win baseball video games.
The Brewers didn’t get the breaks on Tuesday, and so they weren’t capable of manufacture their very own luck. They got here out after that disastrous five-run fifth and went pop out-strikeout-pop out within the backside half of the inning. They hit precisely one ball 95 mph or tougher the remainder of the day, and it was pounded straight into the grime in entrance of residence plate. Heck, they solely had 4 hard-hit balls all recreation, and three have been grounders. The Mets, for his or her half, recorded 11 of them, eight of which have been within the air. The Brewers popped out six occasions and grounded right into a double play; the Mets popped out thrice with no double performs.
By recreation’s finish, this one didn’t really feel significantly shut. The Mets used José Buttó for 2 innings after which Ryne Stanek to shut issues out. They didn’t enable a lot as a single baserunner. There was no last-second turnaround, no late-inning drama. The Mets didn’t have to make use of their nearer or lengthen their starter for a dangerous variety of innings. They didn’t get into the weak a part of the bullpen. They simply scored eight runs and cruised to the end line (to be truthful, scoring eight runs normally enables you to do this).
It’s best to by no means learn an excessive amount of right into a single baseball recreation. For as a lot as I made it sound just like the Brewers by no means stood an opportunity, they out-hit the Mets. They out-slugged them, too. Their bullpen has been higher all yr. A five-run inning keyed by a defensive misplay and two infield singles, one among which concerned a headfirst dive into first base, was the distinction between victory and defeat. If Payamps had gotten to the bag half a step earlier, possibly I’d be speaking about how the monitor meet plan paid off for Milwaukee at present.
However broadly talking, you have to be skeptical of those easy narratives. The Brewers don’t make each recreation about their pace and solely their pace, as a result of that’s not how baseball works. Pace is part of the sport, but it surely’s nowhere close to the entire thing. It’s principally a recreation of batter towards pitcher, and the staff that hits the ball tougher tends to do higher. The staff that walks extra tends to do higher, too, and New York racked up 5 free passes to Milwaukee’s two.
When the 2 groups play tomorrow, nobody’s going to get in a three-point stance ready for the starter’s gun (although after at present, I’d pay to see a race between Payamps and Iglesias). They’re going to play baseball, not run monitor. The Brewers would possibly win – they’ll be favored to win, in actual fact. And so they may win whereas out-homering the Mets and making a bunch of defensive misplays, simply as simply as they might win as a result of their pace is plain. At the moment’s recreation was about hitting the ball exhausting and posting a giant inning, although nobody knew that prematurely, identical to nobody is aware of what tomorrow’s recreation shall be about. That’s a part of the enjoyment of playoff baseball – or the ache, for those who’re a Brewers fan tonight.