With the playoff fields in each leagues almost set, we right here at FanGraphs are turning our focus to how groups arrange for October. Jay Jaffe has been protecting the greatest gamers at every place among the many contenders, in addition to the worst. Dan Szymborski appeared into the particulars of playoff lineup building. Impressed by Meg Rowley, I’m taking a distinct tack: I’m on the lookout for the gamers, methods, and matchups that might be the distinction between success and failure for every workforce.
We already know who the very best gamers in baseball are, and they’re going to after all be vastly necessary within the postseason. However much less heralded gamers incessantly have lots to say about who takes residence the World Sequence trophy. Assume Steve Pearce and David Freese lengthening their respective lineups to show these offenses from good to nice, or the Braves bullpen mowing down the opposition in 2021. (On the flip aspect, you don’t hear lots about groups let down by their supporting casts, as a result of they principally lose early on.) The very best gamers aren’t at all times probably the most pivotal. In that spirit, I went via every workforce and centered on one potential pivot level. I appeared on the American League yesterday; right now, the Nationwide League will get its flip.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Righty Bats vs. Righty Relievers
The Dodgers have been such a playoff fixture for the final decade that it’s simple for his or her groups to mix collectively. A Chris Taylor right here, a Max Muncy there, sprinkle in a heaping serving to of Clayton Kershaw’s involved face, and fairly quickly you’ve received a Dodgers stew going. As such, it’s simple to think about all of those groups as roughly the identical. They’re the Dodgers! They’ve some star hitters and a perpetually careworn pitching workers. They combine and match the underside half of the order with platoon bats and end the sport with six lineup spots having turned over.
This yr, that stereotype doesn’t maintain. The Dodgers have gotten away from their all-platooning methods, significantly because the yr wears on. Eight spots of their beginning lineup are constant no matter opponent handedness. I don’t suppose it’s a philosophical change or something; issues simply lined up this fashion. Muncy and Tommy Edman are ok that the workforce doesn’t see a lot profit in swapping them out towards their respective weak factors (lefties for Muncy, righties for Edman). Miguel Rojas appears like an apparent platoon candidate, solely there’s no lefty bat on the bench that makes for a simple swap.
Gavin Lux and Kevin Kiermaier are the one lefty rotational gamers on the workforce (Muncy, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani are on a regular basis starters, clearly, assuming all the pieces is okay with Freeman’s ankle). Lux will begin towards righties, which implies that Kiermaier (and Hunter Feduccia, in case of emergency) would be the solely lefty bat out there to play matchups. He’s simply not an influence hitter anymore, although, which implies that Dodgers’ righties shall be taking massive at-bats for themselves, even when it seems like a spot the place the workforce would usually herald a pinch-hitter.
Edman is likely to be a switch-hitter, however he persistently fares much better when batting right-handed. Opponents will flip him round in massive spots and pressure him to succeed from his worse aspect. Teoscar Hernández and Will Smith are incessantly going to see the opposition’s greatest right-handed reliever, as a result of the highest of the lineup shall be reserved for lefty arms with acceptable matchups towards Ohtani and Freeman. Even Rojas might be going to get loads of platoon-negative at-bats, as a result of the choice goes to a a lot weaker defensive setup.
In prior years, the Dodgers constructed their workforce round avoiding these matchups. This yr, they’re simply accepting the small drawback and enjoying their guys towards the opponent’s guys straight up. It’s a significant change in offensive ways relative to previous years, one made as a lot out of necessity as choice. How these at-bats go could have lots to say about how the workforce does as an entire – until Ohtani continues to hit like a home on hearth and win video games on his personal.
Philadelphia Phillies: Nick Castellanos
I struggled a bit in choosing the almost definitely Philadelphia distinction maker, however solely as a result of we’ve seen sufficient of this workforce within the final two postseasons to know precisely what they’re about. They’ve a high-powered offense and a bevy of fantastic starters. Their bullpen is filled with high-leverage choices. Their protection? Underrated solely as a result of all the pieces else they’re doing is correctly heralded. The Phillies have the very best document in baseball, the third-best Pythagorean document, and the second-best BaseRuns document. They’re a superb workforce with few apparent flaws.
That mentioned, they may use a postseason breakout from Nick Castellanos, who has been borderline unplayable at factors previously three years, and can also be able to successful a sequence singlehandedly. His fashion – free-swinging with massive cuts – results in loads of strikeouts that really feel completely uncompetitive. Slider off the plate, fastball on the letters, slider within the grime, thanks for taking part in. However as a result of he’s taking extra residence run swings per at-bat than virtually anybody else, typically he goes on a house run tear. Previously month alone, he has a 10-game stretch with a 221 wRC+ and one with a 50 wRC+.
The Phillies are incessantly ok to win even when Castellanos isn’t clicking. Previously three years, he has an mixture 103 wRC+, and but they’ve been top-of-the-line groups in baseball. However their actually white-hot stretches typically coincide with Castellanos’, as a result of he’s simply that helpful to the offense when he’s on a tear. His capacity to show any pitch – whether or not it’s proper down the center or three inches off the plate – into runs is uncommon outdoors of the perfect within the recreation. A great week may flip a single sequence round. A great month may decide the World Sequence.
Milwaukee Brewers: Outfield Protection
I’m undecided you perceive how good Milwaukee’s outfield has been this yr. They’re second within the majors in a lot of superior estimates of defensive worth, however that understates issues. Christian Yelich performed the primary chunk of the yr in left area, and whereas he’s clearly a web enhance to the workforce, that enhance is on offense; he’s a below-average defender at this level in his profession. After his damage, the workforce has been operating out a squad of three middle fielders: Jackson Chourio in left, a platoon of Blake Perkins and Garrett Mitchell in middle, and Sal Frelick in proper.
Every of these 4 is an elite defender. Due to the middle area platoon, they will run out the very best outfield protection within the playoffs even when one of many non-Chourio choices will get pinch-hit for. Line drives within the hole are simply price much less towards Milwaukee, and that modifications the calculus for its pitchers considerably.
This season’s low offensive setting fits the Brewers fairly nicely. When the ball stays within the yard, they’re the workforce that advantages most. Their prime pitchers all have fly ball tendencies, and why not? You’d be extra prepared to give up some aerial contact if it means giving this outfield an opportunity to make some performs.
It’s not a lot that Milwaukee’s infield protection is unhealthy. It’s fairly stable, the truth is: Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang are each wonderful. However with the best way strikeouts dominate the sport nowadays, extra-base hits are the simplest method to rating. And further-base hits are within the air, which suggests outfield vary is among the most useful commodities within the run prevention arms race. If the Brewers can coax a ton of balls within the air out of their opponents with out falling sufferer to a house run parade, they’ll go far.
San Diego Padres: Tanner Scott and Adrian Morejon
The Padres have assembled an incredible squad regardless of big turnover final winter. Buying and selling Juan Soto to pare down on wage clearly harm, and almost the whole beginning rotation departed. However by turning Soto into Michael King and Dylan Stop (not directly), and because of Jackson Merrill’s emergence, the Padres look pretty much as good as they’ve in years. They actually have a deep and versatile bullpen due to A.J. Preller’s aggressive strikes on the commerce deadline.
One key to that bullpen? Its two high-leverage lefty arms. When the Padres and Dodgers confronted off this week in a playoff preview, Mike Shildt had a transparent plan: tilt his matchups to verify his workforce put its greatest foot ahead towards Ohtani and Freeman. Tanner Scott is the backup nearer, however he’s additionally a fearsome lefty specialist, and Shildt likes to make use of him towards the opponent’s greatest lefty. Adrian Morejon is the following man within the hierarchy, and offers Shildt flexibility to match up towards his opponents’ greatest lefties twice in the identical recreation if obligatory. There’s additionally worth to swapping them round to forestall opposing hitters from getting too many appears at them in the identical sequence.
The choice level for the Padres goes to return on the prime of the order. The Dodgers and Phillies, the 2 greatest groups within the NL, stack two nice lefty hitters of their prime three batters. The Padres will possible use 4 righty starters, so Shildt should weigh the advantages of getting to make use of his starter for a full workload towards having his greatest matchups towards the opposite aspect’s greatest batters. It’s going to return all the way down to context; if the third time via for Ohtani or Kyle Schwarber comes with the bases juiced and the rating shut, I believe it’ll be reliever time. If it’s decrease leverage, the starter will most likely keep in.
Both approach, these choices are going to be main inflection factors if the Padres make a deep playoff run. Their workforce setup – all righty starters, nice lefty relievers, and a deep bullpen total – implies that the actual query of find out how to stability starter size, reliever familiarity, and high-leverage platoon matchups will come up in virtually each recreation towards the NL’s greatest.
New York Mets: The First Massive Pinch-Hitting Spot Every Recreation
The Mets have an enviable downside: too many DHs. Even with Mark Vientos enjoying third base as an alternative of a bat-only place, there’s not sufficient room for Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez to hit within the lineup on the identical time. Winker can faux proper area in a pinch, however the Mets appear pleased with Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo within the outfield corners, which suggests the one actual choice is to platoon Winker and Martinez.
That’s annoying, as a result of it implies that the workforce virtually by no means will get to play its 9 greatest place gamers on the identical time. However it comes with a silver lining: They’ll have a starter-level bat to herald as a pinch-hitter in each recreation. That might be Martinez blowing up an opposing supervisor’s lefty specialist in Winker’s spot, or Winker changing any variety of sketchy righties towards a platoon-deficient reliever.
The Mets don’t have a very versatile lineup total. Sure, Luisangel Acuña appeared nice as a short-term Francisco Lindor substitute (assuming no re-aggravation of his damage), however he’s not a scary bat. Harrison Bader, Tyrone Taylor, Eddy Alvarez, Luis Torrens — there isn’t a variety of offensive thump available off the bench. For probably the most half, the workforce goes to line up its greatest gamers and allow them to win or lose on their very own deserves.
That would put them at a drawback towards groups which are in a position to remodel their very own groups a bit extra, giving gamers with edges of their particular matchup extra enjoying time. However for one at-bat a recreation, at no matter time appears most advantageous, New York will get to flip that benefit on its head. Their capacity to take advantage of out of the pinch-hitting ace up their sleeve goes to swing video games, and doubtlessly sequence.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Profitable From Behind
No workforce in baseball has carried out higher whereas behind within the rely than the Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s partially as a result of they’re a terrific offense total – they’ve been the very best group within the recreation because the All-Star break – however it’s additionally due to their specific ability. They don’t strike out. They put a ton of balls in play – they’ve the second-lowest whiff price in baseball – and chase lower than virtually anybody else.
The playoffs are a high-strikeout affair nowadays. With the compression of beginning pitcher innings and the growth of power-heavy bullpens, the typical pitch within the playoffs is much better than the typical pitch within the common season. But when anybody’s outfitted to remain alive regardless of these robust pitches, it’s this yr’s Arizona squad.
If the Snakes are good whereas behind within the rely – comparatively good, after all, nobody is superior when enjoying at a drawback – they’ll additionally be capable to faucet into the opposite factor their offense does greatest: obliterate fastballs in fastball counts. They’re not probably the most aggressive swingers after they get forward, however they hunt fastballs and do harm. Solely the Mariners have carried out higher towards fastballs when forward within the rely. It’s a mixture of selective aggression and energy that helps clarify why Arizona’s offense has been so good. They’re onerous to place away, they usually attempt to do harm after they get forward.
If the Diamondbacks can hold doing these two issues, their lineup goes to be a nightmare. There’s energy in all places. The eight and 9 hitters every have strikeout charges under 15%. If the workforce can flip a bunch of robust counts into seeing-eye singles, they’re going to attain runs in bunches. If they will’t, their pitching workers most likely received’t be sufficient to maintain them.
Atlanta Braves: The New Night time Shift
The Braves make the Mets appear like a paragon of roster depth. They’ve constructed their workforce round a stars-and-scrubs method, and that received pushed even additional with season-ending accidents to Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, and Austin Riley. Their offseason wager on a Jarred Kelenic breakout didn’t pan out. Their lineup is an odd mixture of castoffs and stars, with Gio Urshela and Ramón Laureano enjoying each day alongside the previous standbys of Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna. To their credit score, the fill-ins have carried out nicely up to now, however realistically, this workforce isn’t an offensive juggernaut.
Atlanta’s power lies on the prime of its rotation. Chris Sale is the apparent NL Cy Younger winner. Max Fried isn’t on the peak of his powers, however he’s a terrific quantity two choice. Reynaldo López has been wonderful all yr. The extra of the Braves’ playoff video games that contain a type of three guys beginning, the higher their odds shall be. That’s no knock on Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, however with a makeshift offense, each little little bit of pitching enchancment helps, and attending to cowl extra innings with Sale is pretty much as good because it will get on that entrance.
To make the equation work, the Braves have to emulate themselves from 2021 and empty the bullpen of its greatest arms each time they’ve a lead. En path to their 2021 championship, the Braves used Luke Jackson, Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, and A.J. Minter in almost each victory. This yr’s model can be Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson, and a lefty (both Aaron Bummer or Dylan Lee).
All of those guys have been wonderful this yr. The entire bullpen has been wonderful, the truth is, to the tune of an mixture 3.30 ERA. They’ll must proceed that kind. Something can occur in a month’s price of baseball video games, however Atlanta’s offense merely doesn’t look pretty much as good as most of their NL competitors. But when Brian Snitker can coax three-ish scoreless innings out of his prime relievers in each shut recreation, the equation appears lots higher. Do it proper (and make it into the playoffs to start with, after all), and there is likely to be one other World Sequence ring in his future. Fail, and there is likely to be a variety of shootouts within the workforce’s future. They don’t look nicely outfitted to win these, to say the least.