Andie Anderson needs to do severe journalism, however as a substitute she’s caught writing how-to columns for a girls’s life-style journal. The 2003 function movie, The best way to Lose a Man in 10 Days, follows Andie (performed by Kate Hudson) as she makes an attempt to display that even a conventionally engaging straight girl will discover herself single in a sizzling minute if she commits all of the frequent fake pas recognized to drive straight males away. The topic of her journalistic experiment is Benjamin Barry (performed by Matthew McConaughey), who coincidentally is operating an experiment of his personal. He claims to have a foolproof formulation to make any girl fall in love with him in 10 days flat. The premises of each endeavors rely closely on conventional gender stereotypes, however ultimately the pair notice their state of affairs is extra nuanced, each when it comes to the circumstances and the people concerned (or no less than as nuanced as a film that got here out in 2003 can muster).
Right here in 2024, Kevin Brown not too long ago famous on a MASN broadcast that Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson had grounded into solely two double performs all season. That felt startlingly low for a roughly 150-game pattern, however I’ll admit to not habitually monitoring the GIDP leaderboard. What’s a “good” variety of GIDP for a full season? Has anybody ever posted an ideal, no-GIDP season? What makes gamers notably good or unhealthy at avoiding GIDP?
These questions have intuitive solutions, however that is FanGraphs; we like to check our assumptions round right here. Andie Anderson thought she knew all the plain methods to get dumped, however in apply it wasn’t as straightforward as she thought. It seems two is an effective variety of GIDP. Solely Masyn Winn, with one, has fewer than Henderson this season, who’s tied for second place with Daulton Varsho, Riley Greene, and Jackson Merrill. Going again to 1949 (the earliest season with GIDP knowledge), and omitting 2020, there have been 9 gamers with GIDP-free seasons, most not too long ago TJ Friedl in 2023.
What makes a participant adept at avoiding the dreaded GIDP has an apparent reply: velocity. The highest 20 spots on this season’s leaderboard are largely occupied by younger guys with higher percentile dash velocity. Whereas the underside of the board is cluttered with previous dudes and slow-moving catchers. It’s a fairly simple cause-and-effect relationship. Even changing GIDP to a per-opportunity charge stat (GIDP/PA with a runner on first with lower than two outs) confirms that hauling booty to first base is one of the best ways to not get doubled up.
So possibly it’s so simple as that. Run gradual and log two outs within the scorebook or run quick and make fewer outs. Commit traditional relationship errors and wind up single, or use your charismatic advertising and marketing abilities and fall in love. Issues may need been that easy for Andie and Ben had they not met such fierce opposition in each other. In any other case, her interrupting poker nights and forcing plant-parenthood of a “love fern” would have spawned the breakup Andie sought, whereas his home-cooked candlelight dinners and the magnetism of his bike would have birthed the love connection Ben lusted after. However each in films and baseball, opposing forces are all the time at work and a hitter’s aptitude or aversion for double performs isn’t solely measured in dash velocity.
Finally each Andie and Ben discovered themselves deviating from the usual playbooks for his or her particular person endeavors, and for those who look carefully on the high and backside of the leaderboard, you’ll discover there are a number of deviants there as nicely.
Cal Raleigh has the land velocity of a walrus, and but in his 139 alternatives to floor right into a double play this 12 months, he’s cashed in on solely seven of them. Maybe one of many underrated options of the three-true-outcomes hitter is that it’s onerous to rack up GIDP for those who by no means put the ball in play. And in Raleigh’s case when he does put the ball in play, it’s within the air virtually 70% of the time. Simply exterior the highest 20, Adley Rutschman and Eugenio Suárez match the same mildew. Each give a much less excessive proportion of their plate appearances to walks and strikeouts, however the sum of their line drive and fly ball charges nonetheless tops 65%. This trio needs to keep away from double performs and so they’re prepared to sit down by means of a Celine Dion live performance to do it. One of the best instance of a gradual runner who averted double performs might be Matt Carpenter throughout his salsa-making 2018 marketing campaign. His dash velocity that 12 months was 26.5 toes/second, 73.6% of his balls in play had been hit within the air, and he grounded into zero (!) double performs.
In comparison with avoiding double performs, there’s extra selection within the methods gamers discover to accrue GIDP even after they’re not notably gradual. George Springer’s dash velocity is best than 72% of his friends and but, he ranks fifth in GIDP charge. The anticipated batting common on the groundballs of his 16 GIDP is .358, which suggests some unhealthy luck, although it could be much less misfortune and extra Springer’s aptitude for deceptive an anticipated batting common mannequin. Anticipated batting common elements in launch angle, exit velocity, and for groundballs, the hitter’s dash velocity. Springer averaged an exit velocity of 96 mph on his double play balls, however in terms of grounders, the connection between exit velocity and batting common is just not as linear as a mannequin may assume. A bit of further oomph shortens the response time for defenders, nevertheless it additionally shortens the operating time for the batter. And although Springer’s dash velocity is 28.1 toes per second, his home-to-first time is 4.45 seconds. Different gamers with Springer’s dash velocity sometimes want solely 4.34 seconds to get to first. Between how onerous he hits the ball, his unexpectedly gradual tempo up the primary final analysis, and maybe slightly unhealthy luck, Springer winds up on the backend of a double play in 17% of his GIDP alternatives, making him the individual in a relationship who asks for a soda within the closing seconds of a playoff basketball recreation and lets a hairless canine pee on the pool desk.
Luis Arraez is a below-average runner by dash velocity, however he’s mainly Sonic the Hedgehog in comparison with the gamers he beat out to high the GIDP charge leaderboard. He’s gradual, however he’s not lumbering-catcher gradual. So how’d he earn the highest spot? On this case, his biggest tremendous energy can be his biggest weak point. Consider him because the inverse of Raleigh. If Raleigh avoids GIDP by merely not placing the ball in play, Arraez is a magnet for them as a result of he can’t cease placing the ball in play. Whereas Raleigh is strolling or placing out 40% of the time, Arraez does so solely 8% of the time. He posts a reasonably common groundball charge, however when that charge is utilized to a bigger amount of balls in play, you get the next probability for GIDP. (Fade in on a scene set in a movie show the place Arraez is scary a combat at a screening of Sleepless in Seattle and getting his date punched out.)
Like Arraez, Jose Altuve can be extra probably than most to place the ball in play relatively than strike out or stroll, however to not the identical diploma. His 15% GIDP charge stems from placing the ball in play in a rote and predictable trend. Taking a look at Altuve’s batted ball location chart (see under), he’s one of many extra apparent candidates for a defensive shift amongst right-handed hitters. Certain, groups can’t placed on a full shift anymore, however Altuve nonetheless faces some method of strategic positioning on 38% of his GIDP alternatives, which ranks twelfth amongst certified right-handed hitters. Of the righty hitters who see a shift in such conditions extra typically than Altuve, solely Salvador Perez (shifted towards in 45% of his GIDP alternatives) has the next GIDP charge (15.3%), suggesting Altuve is impacted by defensive shading greater than his equally shifted-against friends. Placing extra balls in play and producing batted balls which might be simpler to defend makes Altuve the date who makes a photoshopped scrapbook of your make-believe future collectively, utilizing footage acquired out of your mom with out your information.
However the actual Andie Anderson Award winner for grounding into double performs at a formidable charge whereas utilizing each potential tactic accessible is Jake Cronenworth. The batted balls initiating his GIDP had been hit at a mean exit velocity of 95 mph, they generated an anticipated batting common of .288, and so they had been hit right into a shift roughly 1 / 4 of the time. He places the ball in play barely extra typically than his friends and owns an above-average groundball charge. He makes an excessive amount of contact, hitting the ball too onerous and into shaded defenders. Cronenworth getting into the field with the double play so as is Kate Hudson standing on the road, wanting up at Matthew McConaughey on his balcony, having simply left his condo after Ben and Andie’s first encounter, and whispering to herself as she blows him a kiss, “I’m gonna make you want you had been lifeless.”
Relationships are difficult. Whether or not it’s a romantic relationship between two folks or the connection between a participant’s skills and their outcomes on the sphere. Simple how-to guides are restricted of their functions, even with one thing as seemingly apparent as grounding right into a bunch of double performs.