Julio Rodríguez’s season was rising bleaker and bleaker by the day as he labored via the longest hunch of his quick profession. We had anticipated him to get proper before later — in any case, he’s one of the crucial gifted gamers within the sport, with an explosive bat, top-shelf dash pace, and a cannon of an arm — but it surely was worrisome to see him wrestle for thus lengthy. He had an 86 wRC+ throughout 360 plate appearances on the finish of June.
Over the previous couple of months, although, Rodríguez has progressively figured issues out, together with his turnaround culminating together with his present heater. Since July 1, he’s batting .321/.377/.545 with 12 house runs and a 166 wRC+, and over his final 10 video games, fueled by his .458/.471/.833 line, 5 homers, and 270 wRC+, he’s added 1.3 WAR to his ledger. He’s a key motive why the Mariners are nonetheless within the playoff race with lower than per week remaining within the season, although you may additionally make the case that his total underperformance is without doubt one of the explanation why Seattle is barely hanging round. Both method, to higher perceive the story of Rodríguez’s season, now we have to dive deeper into his struggles.
Rodríguez pitch-by-pitch efficiency information present he spent the primary three months of the season virtually solely searching fastballs, which isn’t a nasty thought contemplating he feasts on them. The issue was that as a result of his eyes have been centered solely on one pace, he began swinging at any pitch that he thought would possibly be a fastball, and in consequence, he was chasing too many breaking balls and offspeed pitches.
Julio Rodríguez vs. Totally different Pitch Sorts
| Break up | Pitch Group | Pitch% | xwOBA | xSLG | Whiff% | Zone% | Chase% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earlier than July | Fastball | 52.1% | .383 | .525 | 23.9% | 49.9% | 32.3% |
| Since July 1 | Fastball | 53.8% | .429 | .617 | 24.0% | 53.6% | 35.6% |
| 2024 Whole | Fastball | 52.8% | .400 | .558 | 23.9% | 51.4% | 33.5% |
| Earlier than July | Breaking | 35.3% | .285 | .359 | 38.3% | 37.5% | 37.5% |
| Since July 1 | Breaking | 34.2% | .350 | .503 | 36.8% | 40.8% | 35.6% |
| 2024 Whole | Breaking | 34.9% | .313 | .419 | 37.7% | 38.7% | 36.8% |
| Earlier than July | Offspeed | 12.6% | .207 | .248 | 39.3% | 36.8% | 54.9% |
| Since July 1 | Offspeed | 11.9% | .268 | .336 | 34.4% | 36.8% | 41.8% |
| 2024 Whole | Offspeed | 12.3% | .233 | .284 | 37.6% | 36.8% | 50.0% |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Throughout the first three months of this season, Rodríguez might have been the worst on a regular basis hitter in opposition to offspeed pitches in your complete sport. Among the many 260 batters who noticed no less than 50 offspeed pitches outdoors the zone via the top of June, he had the second-worst chase charge at 54.9%, behind Nick Gordon. Because of this, Rodríguez had a .157 wOBA in opposition to offspeed pitches, which dragged down his total numbers, particularly as a result of he additionally had bother in opposition to breaking balls (.232 wOBA).
Rodríguez’s feast-on-fastballs method corresponded with a swing deviation that restricted his manufacturing. In earlier seasons, Rodríguez thrived due to his swing variability, which allowed him to do injury in opposition to totally different pitches in numerous areas. That’s a vital talent for him as a result of he is without doubt one of the extra aggressive hitters in baseball. Nevertheless, throughout the first months of this season, as a result of he gave the impression to be promoting out for fastballs, his hacks have been too noisy on most of his swings. That kind of one-dimensional swing is designed to crush higher-velocity meatballs — and, at the same time as he struggled, he was nonetheless doing that — however it’s inclined to just about the whole lot else.
When taking a look at SEAGER, it turns into clearer that Rodríguez really did have an eat-the-meatball method. But regardless of his elevated chase charge in opposition to offspeed pitches, his SEAGER has really improved from final yr. His Selectivity% is about league common as of this week, within the 54th percentile (primarily on account of latest enhancements), however his Hittable Pitch Take% is within the 97th percentile, that means he’s not often letting pitches he can injury go him by. Altogether, he’s within the ninety fifth percentile for SEAGER, a soar from final yr’s 69th percentile rating. At first look, this may appear contradictory, that he’s making higher swing choices throughout his worst season. However simply because he’s swinging at hittable pitches doesn’t imply these swings have sufficient variability to supply in opposition to pitches with totally different speeds and areas.
The factor is, despite the fact that Rodríguez was searching heaters with a swing that’s tailor-made to wreck them, it doesn’t look like he deliberately altered his mechanics. Quite, the 2 modifications seemingly took place concurrently and spiraled as they bolstered one another. Right here’s what in all probability occurred: After getting off to a sluggish begin, he started urgent to interrupt out of his funk and tried to clobber probably the most hittable pitches he noticed, resulting in a one-dimensional, fastball-dependent swing.
Rodríguez is at his greatest when he has a flatter Vertical Bat Angle (VBA). VBA is the angle of the barrel relative to the bottom at contact. So meaning his greatest efficiency has come when his bat has been flatter at contact. That would imply deeper contact and/or a flatter entry into the hitting zone. Flat swings don’t work for all hitters, however for a somebody like Rodríguez who creates a lot bat pace deep within the zone, they usually are a recipe for fulfillment. Over the primary three months of the season, Rodríguez had the steepest VBA of his profession, ranging between 33.4 to 35.5 levels; this stretch coincided together with his below-average offensive manufacturing. For the reason that starting of July, although, he’s flattened his VBA to someplace between 30 and 31 levels, rather more in step with his profession norms.
Rodríguez’s higher physique mechanics are essential to his swing as a result of they decide the trail his bat takes to the ball. He has a louder bat row, just like these of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Rafael Devers, two hitters who even have swings on the flatter facet. Noisy actions assist batters generate energy and time up their swings, however with extra motion comes extra room for error when one thing goes awry. Having an successfully loud swing requires upkeep and a focus to make sure the fragile steadiness between energy and management doesn’t fall out of whack.
If Rodríguez’s swing had unintentionally change into extra vertically oriented due to a distinct setup or row, that would have disrupted the place he perceived his bat to be in house (proprioception) and hindered his contact high quality and frequency. This all is smart in concept, however let’s affirm it with some video evaluation. The primary two swings under are from Could and the subsequent two are from July:
Could
July
You’ll be able to see a way more toned-down bat row in July in comparison with what it was in Could. Since Rodríguez isn’t transferring it as aggressively within the pre-swing, his bat begins on a flatter aircraft when he descends into his downswing. That helps lower the period of time it takes to get his barrel into the zone and is extra in step with the place his swing has been up to now.
Now, let’s examine two swings, one from final season when he was rolling, and one other from the second half of this season, as he returned to kind:
2023
His mechanics aren’t equivalent, however they’re much nearer now than they have been when he was struggling throughout the first few months of this yr. Take note of the angle of his bat all through the row and the way far his fingers drift from his physique. Sustaining the connection between his barrel/fingers and the remainder of his higher physique is paramount for him to manage his barrel.
As a final piece of data to think about, I used to be interested by how Rodríguez’s bat pace modified as his row calmed down a bit and his swing flattened again out. This month, his bat pace has ticked up considerably in comparison with the primary three months of the season. He’s swinging at a median velocity of 77.7 mph in September, a large spike from April via June, when his common swing was slightly below 76.0 mph. If flatter means sooner, then it appears like he ought to keep the place he’s at proper now.
Any Mariners fan would let you know that within the first few months when Rodríguez was struggling, he was clearly urgent. Any participant would let you know that if you begin urgent, your swing can regress due to it. You attempt to hack your method again to your regular numbers and get too removed from the very best model of your self. It’s an intuitive story.
Contemplating the Mariners have been simply eradicated from the AL West race Tuesday evening and presently sit 2.5 video games out of the ultimate Wild Card spot with 4 video games to play, it could have been good for them to have gotten this model of Rodríguez a bit sooner. However the season isn’t over simply but. Possibly the younger celebrity can propel his crew into an unlikely playoff berth. After “The J-Rod Present” acquired off to such a sluggish begin this yr, that will be an particularly epic season finale.
Aside from the standings, which embrace Tuesday’s outcomes, all stats are up to date as of Tuesday morning.