We attempt to unfold issues out right here at FanGraphs Dot Com, so it’s uncommon for us to have articles about the identical participant on consecutive days. However yesterday, we ran a narrative by Davy Andrews on Victor Robles, who’s been one of many uncommon vivid spots for the Seattle Mariners this season. Robles was launched by the Washington Nationals in early June — which is itself a reasonably darkish omen — however in 68 video games with Seattle, he’s carried out at a famous person stage, and… you already know what, simply go learn Davy’s piece.
One thing this unexpectedly optimistic might be not going to final ceaselessly. Even when Robles has rediscovered himself after years of hitting like a pitcher, I’d take the underneath on his OBP staying within the .400s for the long run. Which is the inherent irony of a narrative like that: By the point a scorching streak is value writing about, it’s often nearer to the top than the start. However even by these requirements, Davy received a extremely horrible break. On Tuesday night time, Robles pulled off the baseball equal of flying his dangle glider right into a set of high-tension wires. He received lifted within the third inning attributable to a hand harm, however not earlier than he made one of many extra baffling baserunning gaffes I can bear in mind.
I’m not right here particularly to dump on Robles, who in spite of everything was 25-for-25 in stolen base makes an attempt with Seattle to that time. Captain Bartholomew Roberts was the final Mariner to steal so ceaselessly and so efficiently.
The context for this clip is that the Mariners have been down 2-0 within the high of the primary inning, with the bases loaded, two outs, and a 3-0 depend to Justin Turner.
So, I’ll say one thing in Robles’ protection. I get what he was considering. For the time being he broke for dwelling, he was on an all-timer of a basestealing heater, he had an enormous secondary lead, and no person was taking a look at him. Least of all of the pitcher, Luis Gil, who was bent over along with his again to 3rd base, futzing with the rosin bag.
It’s fairly frequent for soccer coaches to depart a standing order for a faux punt. Slightly than decide a second based mostly on sport state of affairs, the coach will inform his particular groups captain to audible to a faux anytime he sees the opposition lined up in a sure approach. Having designed the faux to reap the benefits of a numerical benefit on one aspect of the formation or the opposite, the coach trusts his gamers to execute for a possible first down.
And that’s type of what occurred right here. Robles didn’t break for dwelling as a result of he’s a lunatic or an fool, he took off as a result of he acknowledged that the Yankees had given him an enormous opening. Even after Gil perked up instantly and made an ideal throw, it was nonetheless a bang-bang play on the plate.
And let’s not act just like the Mariners’ couldn’t have used a spark. They won’t be useless — they have been nonetheless above 10% playoff odds coming into play Tuesday — however they’ve actually felt useless for a scorching minute. Their beforehand unhittable breakout pitcher, Bryan Woo, had simply been tagged for 2 runs within the high of the primary, and we are able to debate the idea of momentum all night time, however in a second like that, absolutely Robles would’ve identified that his group may use a morale increase. Higher baserunners than Robles have gone on tilt and tried to drive one thing when their group is dropping and has struggled to attain runs.
With that stated, Turner has a profession .362 OBP, and Gil had already hit Robles and walked two different batters within the inning. Not one of the first three pitches of the plate look was shut. Odds are, Robles was coming dwelling on the following pitch anyway, both on a stroll or by advantage of Turner hitting a get-me-over fastball into the hole. And with two outs, the draw back was taking the bat out of the fingers of a great hitter in a good depend, and wiping a bases-loaded state of affairs off the board. Which turned out to be fairly unhelpful for a group that, as soon as once more, is twenty fourth within the majors in runs.
The totality of it — the toughest base to steal, the truth that failure erased probably the most advantageous attainable mixture of depend and baserunners — is simply staggering. Clearly it’s not probably the most damaging stolen base try in historical past, as a result of whereas the Mariners are preventing for his or her playoff lives (or a minimum of they have been), that is nonetheless the primary inning of an everyday season sport. As soon as upon a time, Babe Ruth received caught stealing to finish Sport 7 of the World Sequence with a .300 hitter on the plate. By that commonplace, what Robles did is small potatoes.
So I went to Baseball Savant and appeared for precedent: Three-ball depend, two outs, runner caught stealing to finish the inning. Earlier than Robles, there had been 59 different cases since 2008, which is way back to the database goes, and just one different this 12 months. (In a type of glitch-in-the-Matrix coincidences, the final two occasions this occurred earlier than Tuesday, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was on the plate.)
I’m a bit of stunned that it doesn’t occur extra. It’s frequent for the runner to be put in movement with three balls and two outs — no matter whether or not there are two strikes — as a result of there’s no hazard of the runner being doubled off on a ball within the air. And, on this state of affairs, we solely get a runner thrown out 3 1/2 occasions a 12 months, throughout all the league?
Oh nicely. Of the 59 failed stolen base makes an attempt, 51 have been both an tried steal of second or an tried steal of third with a runner on first — in different phrases, the baserunners tried to get a leap on a stroll however the batter unexpectedly received a strike. In 18 of these cases, the hitter even swung and missed on the pitch, making the play, primarily, a blown hit-and-run.
Of the remaining performs, my favourite is that this 2018 try by Javier Báez to steal third base. By that time, the hitter, Ben Zobrist, was close to the top of his profession, however he was nonetheless fairly useful with the bat in his fingers. Plus, the depend was 3-0.
Extra to the purpose, Báez received as unhealthy a leap as you’ll see, and ended up getting thrown out by — and I feel Statcast will again me up on this — about one million miles. What Robles did was an enormous threat, however I feel this was a worse baserunning resolution.
There may be one, and just one, occasion of a runner getting caught stealing dwelling with three balls and two outs in an inning: On June 26, 2011, Matt Treanor swung by a 3-0 pitch with Jeff Francoeur on first and Alex Gordon on third, with the Royals up 4-1 on the Cubs within the backside of the third inning. I can’t discover video of the incident, and the Related Press recap of the sport doesn’t point out it, however based mostly on the field rating, it seems like this was a failed double steal. Catcher Geovany Soto threw to shortstop Starlin Castro, who received the ball again dwelling in time to get Gordon on the plate. Regardless of, Kansas Metropolis received 6-3, and no person considered both of those groups once more for one more three years.
There are greater than 100 different cases of runners getting caught stealing dwelling with two outs within the pitch monitoring period, regardless of depend, however solely three with the bases loaded. The newest occurred in 2015, so there’s no video on Baseball Savant. Fortunately, I discovered written descriptions of all three, so let’s see how these incidents have been acquired on the time.
On April 14, 2012, Brett Lawrie bolted for dwelling with the bases loaded and José Bautista on the plate. And should you wanted any info apart from “Brett Lawrie” to know whether or not that was considered as a smart alternative, supervisor John Farrell known as it a “main baserunning mistake.” Bautista, not wanting to hold his 22-year-old teammate out to dry, known as Lawrie “gutsy” and speculated that he would’ve been protected with a greater slide.
On August 24, 2012, Josh Donaldson received thrown out attempting to steal dwelling with the bases loaded and two outs. Despite the fact that the A’s went on to win that sport, Joe Stiglich’s recap within the San Jose Mercury Information the following morning began as follows: “ A doozy of a baserunning blunder by Josh Donaldson threatened to sink the A’s on Friday…”
The third failed steal of dwelling got here on April 22, 2015, when Torii Hunter thought he noticed Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie go to the windup and took off. Hunter, who was 39 occurring 40 by this level, received thrown out. However similar to the standing faux punt name, he’d talked the matter over with supervisor Paul Molitor beforehand and acquired Molitor’s blessing. At that time, it’s not a rash resolution by a participant appearing alone, it’s a premeditated gamble by a savvy veteran, with the approval of the supervisor. Additionally, the Twins received the sport, and as a lot as we nerds love to speak about course of, this can be a results-based enterprise.
Which is mainly what Mariners supervisor Dan Wilson stated after the sport: “That’s a state of affairs the place you’ve received to know you’re going to make it.”
As a result of should you don’t, it’s going to appear like one of many worst baserunning choices of the previous 20 years.