When freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey stroll into Rutgers‘ Trapezoid of Terror for the Scarlet Knights’ dwelling opener, they’re going to make historical past. The five-star prospects are the very best two recruits to ever go well with up for Rutgers.
It is a trailblazing duo, however they’re removed from alone.
Cooper Flagg is the perfect recruit Duke has landed within the historical past of contemporary recruiting rankings. Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe, Miami’s Jalil Bethea, Arizona State’s Jayden Quaintance, BYU’s Egor Demin and Illinois‘ Will Riley will even have that stamp as this system’s top-rated recruit within the web period.
Alabama’s Derrion Reid, Maryland’s Derik Queen and Syracuse’s Donnie Freeman are every the second-highest-rated recruits for his or her respective golf equipment.
Name it an meant advantage of the inflow of Title, Picture and Likeness revolution. There’ll all the time be haves and have-nots in school basketball, however applications like BYU and Arizona State –– who personal zero Ultimate 4 appearances ever, mixed –– now have the sources to recruit among the finest prospects on this planet.
However the state of affairs is all the pieces, even for among the finest recruits within the nation who hope to be in school for one yr earlier than signing profitable NBA paychecks. Let’s dive into among the greater scheme questions surrounding all 20 five-star recruits from the highly-anticipated Class of 2024.
Practical expectation: Beginning ahead
Burning school query: Will Duke’s frontcourt have sufficient spacing round Flagg?
Duke is poised to attempt to play Flagg, Syracuse switch Maliq Brown and massive middle Khaman Maluach collectively to offer the protection some insane rim safety, absurd courtroom protection and ridiculous size. If Tyrese Proctor and Tulane switch Sion James are additionally on the ground, that is a hellacious defensive quintet that may problem Iowa State or Houston for the perfect protection within the sport.
However Duke’s finest defensive lineup doesn’t function a ton of capturing. Brown made simply seven triples mixed in two years at Syracuse. Maluach has some floor-stretching potential, but it surely might take a while. Good defenses might shrink the ground and clog a few of Flagg’s driving lanes and playmaking alternatives. If that occurs, will Scheyer be comfy sacrificing a few of that defensive thump for some added spacing? Make no mistake, there’s loads of capturing on this roster, however a ton of it’s coming off the bench if Maluach, Brown and Flagg are on the ground collectively.
It isn’t inconceivable to be elite offensively with two extraordinarily low-volume shooters on the ground (simply ask UConn), but it surely requires exact execution and often, an distinctive transition offense. That mix of offense versus protection can be a enjoyable wrinkle for this Duke employees to parse, experiment and put to the take a look at.
Practical expectation: Beginning wing
Burning school query: Can Bailey keep away from falling in love with powerful 2-pointers?
Bailey could make any shot on the ground, however simply because you can also make it, would not make it a superb shot. The Huge Ten is extensively thought to be one of the crucial well-scouted leagues in school basketball, and opposing defensive coordinators could have loads of tips up their sleeves to make Bailey’s life powerful. He undoubtedly will give Rutgers some tantalizing flashes, however these stepback, one-foot, fadeaways may be each a blessing and a curse. It’d come right down to belief and embracing giving it up, so he can get it again in a good higher place to be efficient. Rutgers will function a number of lineups with each Jeremiah Williams and Dylan Harper on the ground, and each of these lead guards are unselfish creators who ought to be capable to bend defenses and create a few of these lengthy closeouts for Bailey to assault.
Practical expectation: Beginning guard
Burning school query: Can Harper breathe life right into a dormant Rutgers transition offense?
Steve Pikiell‘s well-schooled defenses defend motion after motion, dwindling the shot clock and forcing powerful late-clock makes an attempt. In consequence, Rutgers has rated exterior the top-200 nationally in adjusted tempo in six of Pikiell’s eight years at Rutgers. However Rutgers quietly ran a bunch final yr, partially as a result of its halfcourt offense was a trainwreck. Rutgers had the fourth-highest transition fee within the Huge Ten, per Synergy, and that should not be an anomaly. If something, Rutgers might need to ramp the tempo up much more with Harper main the cost. Harper is a wonderful rebounder and a prepared push-ahead passer. His potential to seize and go ought to open up alternatives for Bailey to placed on aerial shows that defy gravity.
Practical expectation: Beginning middle
Burning school query: Is the face-up ability going to be a factor?
Maluach is a 7-foot-2, 250-pound large man who’s armed with a 9-8 standing attain. However Maluach is not only a skyscraper. Maluach is an attractive NBA Draft prospect due to his burgeoning face-up abilities. Throughout his stint with the Metropolis Oilers within the Basketball Africa League, Maluach flashed a few of his bag, together with a feathery midrange jumper and the knack to faux a dribble hand-off and get to the tin in a rush. Some staffers imagine Maluach has the very best ceiling on the Duke roster, together with Flagg. Will the ability come to fruition at Duke? Good defenses may ship a second defender at him the second he places it on the bottom to attempt to pressure turnovers. Can he deal with the pace of the sport and may he present the flexibility to decipher defenses and make easy reads? In that case, Maluach might stick in each Duke’s beginning lineup and its closing lineup.
Practical expectation: Beginning guard
Burning school query: Is a heavy eating regimen of pick-and-rolls on faucet?
Solely three groups in school basketball ran extra pick-and-rolls final yr than Baylor. Perhaps that comes down a tad in 2024-25 with a pick-and-roll maestro like RayJ Dennis and a rim-runner like Yves Missi off to greener pastures, but it surely’s clear that Baylor will use ball screens to generate offense at a excessive clip. Duke switch Jeremy Roach is on the within monitor to sop up most of these pick-and-roll reps, however Edgecomb, a five-star guard, could have a possibility to do the identical.
Edgecombe’s guard abilities are nonetheless a piece in progress. He is extra of a scorer than a playmaker at this level. Edgecombe ought to be capable to use that lightning-quick first step to get into the paint at will. Baylor ought to be capable to function a number of five-shooter lineups, particularly when Norchad Omier and Jalen Celestine are within the frontcourt, so the paint can be open for Edgecombe’s turbo drives. Edgecombe-to-Baylor is sort of an ideal match, however how rapidly he will get on top of things within the pick-and-roll recreation might go a great distance in cementing Baylor’s case as a nationwide championship contender as a result of Roach cannot do it alone.
Practical expectation: Beginning wing
Burning school query: Can Johnson get to the rim?
Johnson is a bucket from downtown and the midrange, however ending on the rim remains to be a piece in progress for the five-star wing. Johnson shot simply 43.5% on the rim at Hyperlink Academy final yr in halfcourt settings, per Synergy, and it wasn’t on excessive quantity both. Simply 15% of Johnson’s halfcourt makes an attempt got here on the rim.
That might be an issue within the SEC, arms down the perfect shot-blocking league in America. The SEC has led all conferences in block proportion in three of the final 4 seasons, per KenPom. Johnson is strolling right into a hornet’s nest, and his state of affairs would not alleviate most of the issues.
Attending to the rim simply hasn’t been an enormous precedence for Rodney Terry’s groups previously. Texas completed 334th and 348th nationally in Shot High quality’s Rim & 3 fee throughout Terry’s first two seasons, and new Longhorn guards Tramon Mark and Jordan Pope each had startling low rim charges final yr. That is who Johnson is slated to begin subsequent to on this Texas backcourt.
Johnson’s pure stroke might should be the trump card, however counting on leap shot roulette on this bear of a league sounds hellacious. Will Texas make tweaks to its offensive philosophy to maximise its five-star freshman?
Practical expectation: Beginning guard
Burning school query: Can Bethea be a real, three-level scorer?
Bethea is perhaps the perfect shooter on this class. Each Bethea and Miami star guard Nijel Pack have “within the fitness center” vary, and it ought to give severe gravity and further spacing to a Miami offense that should get higher in a rush if it needs to get again to the Huge Dance. Miami actually must generate extra rim stress and get to the charity stripe extra typically. Miami had one of many lowest free-throw charges within the sport final season, and its prime foul-drawer (Norchad Omier) transferred to Baylor. There is a good probability Bethea’s jumper sticks. It is simply what he does. However including extra polish to his recreation with some additional drives could be good for his long-term NBA Draft inventory and an enormous boon for Miami’s halfcourt offense.
Practical expectation: Potential beginning guard
Burning school query: How does Ian Jackson fare enjoying off the ball?
There are some issues about Jackson’s jumper after he shot simply over 28% from 3-point vary as a senior, but it surely is perhaps a contact overblown. Jackson tried over seven 3-pointers per recreation at Extra time Elite, and his tape is plagued by a bunch of off-the-dribble 3-pointers which might have sunk his general percentages a tad.
With RJ Davis and Elliot Cadeau dealing with a lot of the on-ball creation, Jackson ought to be capable to keep away from these inefficient, off-the-dribble 3-pointers. Jackson is simply too competent of a shooter to be “dorked” and sagging off him would give the dynamic, 6-5 guard much more of a runway to get downhill in a rush. How Jackson finds methods to be a menace off the ball can be fascinating. He is a superb cutter who finds open seams. Jackson can assault these second-side pick-and-rolls. Hiding your worst perimeter defender on Jackson would not be clever as a result of he is a strolling paint contact who can always put opposing defenses into disaster mode.
UNC has to search out inventive methods to weaponize a winner like Jackson, like probably utilizing him as a guard-on-guard screener to mismatch hunt.
Practical expectation: Potential beginning middle, frontcourt rotation
Burning school query: Will a 17-year-old freshman embrace the soiled work?
Quaintance has a sky-high ceiling and needs to be a lottery decide in the future as a result of he is armed with a 7-3 wingspan and has each device you could possibly need for an enormous man. However Arizona State has no shot to be aggressive within the Huge 12 if it would not rebound. The Solar Devils acquired gauged on the glass final season, and the Huge 12 is full of groups who make chasing down offensive rebounds an enormous a part of their recreation plans and identities. It is a non-negotiable for applications like Houston, TCU and Cincinnati. Identical factor goes for Arizona. Quaintance’s eye-popping performs can be dazzling, however his motor on the glass is a large X-Issue for Arizona State to outlive in its new dwelling.
Practical expectation: Beginning wing
Burning school query: Is the conditioning the place it must be?
Hopefully, McNeeley is able to run as a result of Dan Hurley‘s layered offense goes to have him zooming up and down the ground in transition and likewise flying in and round screens to search out openings for treys. McNeeley is finest suited to step into the position as the highest off-movement shooter for this UConn roster. It is a powerful activity for anyone, particularly a freshman, however McNeeley will not be tasked with doing one thing he isn’t able to executing. Hurley’s potential to cowl up weaknesses and maximize strengths is perhaps extra stunning than his intricate halfcourt units. Hopefully, McNeeley’s acquired some monitor sneakers in his locker as a result of he’ll want ’em.
Practical expectation: Wing rotation, potential starter
Burning school query: How rapidly can Powell change into UNC’s wing-stopper?
Powell is perhaps an enormous a part of the answer for a UNC protection that will all the time have some dimension limitations with Elliot Cadeau and RJ Davis on the ground collectively. Powell, a 6-6, 195-pound wing, covers a lot floor, vertically and horizontally, and is routinely lauded for his excessive IQ and a spotlight to element on the scouting report.
Protection is the way in which for Powell to change into laborious to take off the ground. It can also make him stand out amidst UNC’s crowded wing corps. There are actual questions on whether or not Belmont switch Cade Tyson may be as much as snuff along with his on-ball protection towards high-major wings. He is perhaps better-utilized defensively guarding off-ball wings or chasing round shooters.
If UNC needs to get previous Duke and its crowded batch of wings, it wants a defensive kingpin. Powell may be UNC’s reply to the take a look at.
Practical expectation: Beginning large man
Burning school query: Are a boatload of dribble handoffs coming?
New Maryland start line guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie was one of the crucial environment friendly scorers within the nation final yr at Belmont utilizing hand-offs. Kevin Willard ought to be capable to construct off that because of the addition of Queen. The husky five-star large man ought to present a helpful dribble handoff accomplice for Gillespie to skitter round to search out creases within the protection. Queen is a tantalizing passer (with each arms), and there is optimism that Maryland can use him as a facilitator on the prime of the important thing. A lot can be made, for good cause, about his match subsequent to a different non-shooting large man like Julian Reese, however Queen’s chemistry with Gillespie is perhaps much more essential. If they will set up a superb rapport in that dribble handoff recreation, Maryland can nonetheless discover methods to create good photographs even with actual capturing questions on this roster.
Practical expectation: Wing rotation
Burning school query: How can Evans stand out amidst a crowded roster?
By his first two seasons on the helm, Jon Scheyer has sometimes performed seven or eight guys an evening. Let’s assume that sticks in 2024-25:
- Cooper Flagg
- Tyrese Proctor
- Caleb Foster
- Sion James
- Maliq Brown
- Khaman Maluach
- Kon Knueppel
- Mason Gillis
The minutes math will get cloudy rapidly for a five-star wing like Evans. Sadly, accidents are a factor (as Duke has discovered the laborious approach in the previous couple of seasons), however at full energy, it is not going to be simple for Evans to crack this rotation. The case for enjoying time is easy: Evans’ powerful shot-making potential is simply too potent to maintain him on the bench. Duke, for all its apparent strengths, doesn’t have that locked-in nearer who can create a bucket late within the shot clock. Perhaps it is Flagg, Foster, Proctor or Knueppel. Perhaps it may be Evans?
Practical expectation: Frontcourt rotation
Burning school query: Can Kansas play Bidunga and Hunter Dickinson collectively?
Invoice Self is already tinkering with the concept of pairing Dickinson, a elegant fifth-year vet, with Bidunga, a bodily, uncooked freshman. Dickinson’s passing chops and floor-spacing potential opens up the chance for Bidunga to function as a rim-running lob menace who could be a play-finisher when Dickinson will get double-teamed. Defensively, Dickinson’s struggles in house are well-documented and he is extra of a rim deterrent, not a rim protector. Bidunga is perhaps the other. The five-star freshman owns a 7-2 wingspan and unbelievable vertical bounce. He is solely 6-8 however Bidunga performs approach greater than that.
Bidunga might be best-suited to be the backup 5-man behind Dickinson whereas KJ Adams Jr. and AJ Storr sop up a lot of the minutes on the 4, however a Bidunga-Dickinson pairing is perhaps a device within the storage for Self to whip out on the proper time.
Practical expectation: Beginning 4-man
Burning school query: How a lot rim safety can Freeman deliver to Syracuse?
Syracuse’s protection was a sieve in convention play. ACC foes shot a whopping 55% on 2s towards Syracuse final winter. That was the worst mark within the league. Two newcomers will get the primary shot at buffing up Syracuse’s shoddy inside protection: Colorado switch Eddie Lampkin and five-star ahead Donnie Freeman. However Lampkin is not a vertical rim protector. The burly, 6-11, 265-pound middle had only a 0.5 block proportion final season which was the bottom of any beginning middle within the Pac-12.
Freeman’s worth to Syracuse skyrockets if he is a legit deterrent on the backline.
Practical expectation: Beginning wing
Burning school query: So, uh, what concerning the protection?
The Huge 12 was one of many oldest, high-major leagues within the nation final yr. Simply six freshmen performed greater than 20 minutes per recreation. The league is altering, however paying up for vets positive has not. BYU and Arizona State are the lone applications within the league with a number of freshmen positioned to begin. Demin, a 6-9, Russian star, is anticipated to shoulder a bunch of the on-ball work for brand spanking new BYU coach Kevin Younger, however how prepared is he defensively?
Johnny Furphy might be an instance to look at. Furphy got here to Kansas from Australia and labored his approach into the beginning lineup, however he was put into the highlight repeatedly by opposing offensive coordinators who hunted him out defensively from the leap. In the event that they did it to Furphy, they’re going to do it to Demin, too. The 190-pound wing might be finest suited utilizing his size to hassle shooters on the perimeter, however the Huge 12 is full of excellent guards who will attempt to discover a weak hyperlink within the protection. Is Demin as much as snuff defensively?
Practical expectation: Beginning wing
Burning school query: How does Nate Oats combine his finest defensive lineup along with his finest 5 offensive gamers?
It is laborious to overstate how significantly better Alabama needs to be defensively with a shot-swatting large man like Cliff Omoruyi on the again line and a sturdy, prolonged wing like Reid who can cowl a bunch of floor on the perimeter. However Alabama’s fire-breathing offense hums with lineups that includes 4 or 5 shooters. Alabama’s finest defensive lineup won’t have that. Omoruyi isn’t a menace to house the ground, Grant Nelson‘s jumper comes and goes and Reid’s floor-stretching potential is shaping as much as be the five-star freshman’s largest X-Issue after he shot 31% from 3-point vary on 54 makes an attempt at Prolific Prep final season, per Synergy.
It is perhaps a fragile push-pull for Oats all yr due to the depth and lineup flexibility Alabama has amassed. There are lineup choices galore for perhaps school basketball’s deepest roster. However Reid could make it a moot level if the defensive impression is legit and the capturing comes alongside as a result of he, merely, seems to be completely different than a lot of the different items on this roster.
Getty Photographs
Practical expectation: Wing rotation
Burning school query: Can Knueppel unlock a brand new lever for Duke’s offense?
Duke has not often used post-ups for guards or wings through the first two years of the Jon Scheyer period. However which may simply be roster-related, not Scheyer’s staunch philosophy. Knueppel might change that alone. The wide-bodied, 6-7 wing has the body to be a terrific bootyball choice who could be a mismatch hunter within the paint and create benefits for Duke to assault within the halfcourt.
Quite a few sensible, environment friendly offenses have began to make use of guards or wings as post-up weapons to invert the ground. Penn State, famously, used it with All-American level guard Jalen Pickett. Illinois’ elite offense was fueled by a heavy dose of post-ups for All-Huge Ten wing Marcus Domask. Tennessee began utilizing All-American Dalton Knecht as a bootyball machine. Duke noticed a model of it up shut and private with UNC’s Harrison Ingram this previous season.
The capturing can get Knueppel on the ground, however Duke might should copycat a few of that bootyball with him, too.
Practical expectation: Beginning ahead
Burning school query: How rapidly does the pick-and-pop recreation coalesce?
Georgia shot a billion 3-pointers final season, but it surely did not have a real pick-and-pop menace. Think about that downside solved with five-star Asa Newell on the way in which to Athens. The 6-9, 205-pound ahead has all of the instruments to be an NBA participant in the future, however his silky lefty jumper ought to give Georgia’s offense some additional gravity and maximize the impression of sophomore lead guard Silas Demary. Final season, the Dawgs rated in simply the twenty eighth percentile in pick-and-roll effectivity, per Synergy, partially as a result of it did not have a scary pick-and-pop menace. Georgia rollers made simply 5 3-pointers all season lengthy. UGA’s bigs simply weren’t a menace to stretch the ground.
Newell is.
Practical expectation: Wing rotation, potential starter
Burning school query: What is the shot eating regimen?
Illinois might need essentially the most analytically-tilted offense within the Huge Ten. No Huge Ten workforce had the next “Rim & 3” fee than Illinois final yr, per Shot High quality. The Illini even have a “shot choice recreation” that it performs as an instance good versus unhealthy photographs. Illinois appreciated taking a bunch of treys and photographs on the rim, particularly in transition. Conversely, it not often took off-the-dribble jumpers. The Illini had the bottom off-the-dribble jumper fee within the Huge Ten final season. And right here comes Riley who has flashes of being an distinctive off-the-dribble shotmaker. Riley takes (and makes) these powerful photographs that Illinois would moderately keep away from. The Illini and Riley will seemingly have to fulfill within the center. Riley embracing Illinois’ shot choice recreation might assist his effectivity spike. Brad Underwood embracing Riley’s off-the-dribble strengths might give the Illini a late-clock, get-out-of-jail-free card.
Discovering that proper stability can be all the pieces.