Final week, I modeled Shohei Ohtani’s chase for 50 dwelling runs and 50 steals to foretell when he may attain that historic twin milestone. That prediction isn’t static, although. Each time Ohtani performs a sport, the chance of his attending to 50/50 adjustments. Excellent news, although: Updating the mannequin is as straightforward as hitting a couple of keys and listening to my pc hum for a bit.
This isn’t going to be an extended article. It’s, nevertheless, an up to date set of chances, which is the entire level of this train. Ohtani hit two homers in his weekend collection towards the Guardians, which leaves him solely 4 dwelling runs and 4 steals in need of a half century in every statistic. His odds of reaching 50/50 are as much as 61.3% in my simulations – they have been 55.6% earlier than this collection.
As a fast refresher, I’m simulating the chance of his hitting 50 of every statistic with a Monte Carlo simulation that takes his expertise, his opponents, and the stadiums the place he performs under consideration. I additionally introduce a random fluctuation in his dwelling run expertise: Typically he’s sizzling, typically he’s not, and typically he’s in between. I then simulate the season 1,000,000 instances and be aware whether or not he hits 50/50, and if that’s the case, during which sport he does it.
The 2 homers within the weekend collection have barely moved up the most definitely date for when he’ll attain the 50/50 threshold. Earlier than his collection towards Cleveland, my simulation advised that the only sport most definitely to see Ohtani both steal the bottom or hit the homer that pushes him over the road was the Dodgers’ September 27 sport in Colorado. That’s nonetheless the case – however it’s now lifeless even with the earlier sport, September 26 in Los Angeles towards the Padres. Moreover, the Padres collection has overtaken the ultimate Rockies collection because the three-game set during which he’s most definitely to set the mark.
Right here’s the whole set of game-by-game chances:
Shohei Ohtani, 50/50 Odds by Recreation
| Day | Opponent | Residence/Away | Odds of fifty/50 | Cumulative Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/9 | Cubs | Residence | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9/10 | Cubs | Residence | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9/11 | Cubs | Residence | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9/13 | Braves | Away | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9/14 | Braves | Away | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 9/15 | Braves | Away | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 9/16 | Braves | Away | 0.7% | 1.2% |
| 9/17 | Marlins | Away | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| 9/18 | Marlins | Away | 2.0% | 4.4% |
| 9/19 | Marlins | Away | 2.9% | 7.3% |
| 9/20 | Rockies | Residence | 4.1% | 11.5% |
| 9/21 | Rockies | Residence | 5.1% | 16.5% |
| 9/22 | Rockies | Residence | 5.9% | 22.4% |
| 9/24 | Padres | Residence | 6.3% | 28.7% |
| 9/25 | Padres | Residence | 6.6% | 35.4% |
| 9/26 | Padres | Residence | 6.7% | 42.1% |
| 9/27 | Rockies | Away | 6.7% | 48.8% |
| 9/28 | Rockies | Away | 6.4% | 55.3% |
| 9/29 | Rockies | Away | 6.0% | 61.3% |
I believe these projections do a great job of dealing with a tough drawback. However I do wish to make one level about their limitations: Steals aren’t fairly as straightforward to mannequin as dwelling runs. Just about each time that Ohtani involves the plate, his supreme consequence is a house run. He swings to hit dwelling runs, and pitchers do their greatest to stop them. The previous does a fantastic job of predicting the longer term right here, as a result of intent doesn’t change from one plate look to the following. Steals don’t work fairly like that. Positive, Ohtani’s velocity is a constant and essential enter; the identical is true for his baserunning instincts, the opposing pitcher’s potential to carry him on, the catcher’s throwing arm, and so forth. However how a lot he needs to steal can be crucially essential. He’s trying to steal extra continuously within the second half of the season than he was within the first, and his need to run presumably will solely speed up if he’s sitting on, say, 50 dwelling runs and 49 steals. I’m modeling a steady-state true-talent world, however I believe it will be affordable to tilt the distribution barely earlier if Ohtani hits the homer plateau earlier than the stolen base one, which appears extra doubtless as we speak than it did final week.
In any case, some takeaways: The final six video games of the season are the most definitely time to see historical past. The collection towards the Padres is now the perfect wager regardless of San Diego’s wonderful pitching employees. The final collection of the season, at elevation towards a foul pitching employees, is the following most definitely. The chance of Ohtani’s attending to 50 throughout each collection is larger now than it was on Thursday, and I would even be underestimating it provided that he may resolve to try extra steals as he nears the border of historical past.