You may be a bit shocked to study simply how uncommon 3-0 counts are. As of Tuesday morning, there had been 155,045 plate appearances within the 2024 season, and simply 5,852 of them, or 3.8%, had gone 3-0. That signifies that every staff ought to anticipate to see a 3-0 depend simply 1.4 occasions per sport. That’s a complete lot fewer than I anticipated. Due to that shortage, if someone involves you with statistics a few batter’s splits in 3-0 counts, you possibly can in all probability low cost them as a small pattern dimension aberration. That’s all of the extra true when you think about that, ignoring intentional walks, 3-0 counts flip into walks roughly 60% of the time (which in turns signifies that they account for roughly 29% of all walks). As soon as the batter will get forward 3-0, there are only a few precise at-bats happening. So that you don’t should take this severely for those who don’t wish to, however as soon as he reaches a 3-0 depend, Aaron Decide is placing collectively the best season in recorded historical past. I do know that’s not precisely a surprising lede – Aaron Decide is sweet at one thing; movie at eleven – nevertheless it’s enjoyable, so hear me out.
On this case, recorded historical past begins in 1988. That’s the earliest 12 months that Stathead permits you to pull count-based splits. These splits are barely muddied by the truth that so far as Stathead is worried, 3-0 counts embrace intentional walks. (That’s comprehensible, since till very not too long ago, intentional walks nonetheless required pitchers to throw 4 precise balls. Nonetheless, it undoubtedly skews the numbers; it doesn’t make a ton of sense to incorporate PAs the place the batter by no means noticed a aggressive pitch in depend splits.) This season, Decide has been walked deliberately 18 occasions, however 4 of these passes solely occurred as soon as the pitcher had fallen behind 3-0, so we’ll go away them and strip out the opposite 14.
That leaves Decide with 43 PAs that went to a 3-0 depend, second in baseball behind Juan Soto, who has 54 (which additionally offers the Yankees much more 3-0 counts than every other staff in baseball). In these PAs, Decide has walked 35 occasions, for a stroll fee of 81.4%. That’s how terrifying Aaron Decide is: Regardless that he ranks second on this break up by PAs, pitchers are so disinclined to throw him a strike that he’s tied for seventy fifth in ABs.
So how did these eight at-bats go? Nicely, they went popup, single, homer, homer, homer, strikeout, groundout, homer. Should you’re maintaining rating at house, that may be 5-for-8 with 4 homers, good for a 2.125 slugging share. I went again into Stathead and tried to seek out the gamers with the most effective 3-0 splits in historical past. (For these splits, I wasn’t in a position to separate out intentional walks, however since we’re speaking about a number of the greatest hitting performances of the final 4 many years, they’re in all probability not skewing the on-base percentages that a lot anyway.) Since 1988, Decide is the solely participant to get forward 3-0 at the least 30 occasions and to run a slugging share above 2.000 in these plate appearances. Yordan Alvarez got here closest; in 2019, the Houston slugger obtained forward 3-0 in 23 PAs, walked in 20 of them, and homered in all three of the opposite others. That’s patently absurd, and it makes for a tidy 4.000 slugging share.
This season, as soon as he reaches 3-0, Decide has a slash line of .625/.930/2.125, with an OPS of three.055 (3.072 if we depend his intentional walks). Amongst gamers with at the least 35 PAs in a 3-0 depend, that’s the most effective OPS in recorded historical past. Subsequent on the record is 2004 Barry Bonds. As you would possibly recall, 2004 Barry Bonds was fairly good. He ran a 233 wRC+ and hit 45 house runs in simply 373 at-bats, as a result of he obtained walked almost 38% of the time. That season, Bonds ran a 2.760 OPS after he obtained forward within the depend 3-0, almost 300 factors beneath Decide.
Right here’s the craziest a part of the story. Decide has had eight at-bats with a 3-0 depend this season. Since 1988, for those who set a minimal of eight at-bats with a 3-0 depend, he’s second all-time in each slugging and OPS. Who’s in first, and what 12 months did they accomplish this feat? That may be Kyle Tucker, this season. The Houston proper fielder, who has been out since June 5 with a mysterious shin contusion that was not too long ago upgraded to a much-less-mysterious full-on fracture, has gotten forward 3-0 in 20 plate appearances this 12 months. He’s walked 11 occasions and gone 6-for-9 with 5 homers and a double. That’s good for a 2.444 slugging share.
As soon as once more, the numbers we’re speaking about listed below are minuscule. Within the case of Decide, we’re speaking about simply eight at-bats. He might fly out twice with a 3-0 depend tonight, and swiftly he’d be a pathetic 5-for-10 with 4 house runs and each phrase that I’ve written can be fully irrelevant. (Word to Aaron Decide: Please don’t do that, I encourage of you.) However these tiny numbers additionally converse to form of numbers Aaron Decide is placing up, once more. He’s been so unreal that it’s arduous to discover a break up the place he isn’t on the prime of the league. The numbers are tiny, nevertheless it’s not an accident that he’s discovered himself in so many 3-0 counts or that he’s walked greater than 4 occasions out of 5 as soon as he obtained there. He’s working a 96th-percentile chase fee and a One hundredth-percentile hard-hit fee. No surprise we will’t cease citing Barry Bonds. Seasons just like the one Decide is having don’t come alongside all that usually, so let’s be sure that we get pleasure from ourselves, whatever the pattern dimension.
Many due to FanGraph member Brian Reinhart for suggesting this subject and Stathead’s Katie Sharp for serving to me decouple intentional walks from this information the place doable.