Ever since Main League Baseball launched the primary drip of its bat monitoring knowledge this spring, I’ve been keeping track of a selected leaderboard. I don’t know if anyone else cares a lot about it, however I’ve been fascinated by the quick swing leaderboard. I haven’t been monitoring it religiously; I’ve simply been checking in each couple of weeks. Additionally, I haven’t been it the way in which you’re presupposed to. I’m solely the underside of the record. I suppose that makes it not a lot a leaderboard as a trailerboard, however I don’t care. I’m excited about it as a result of there’s an honest-to-goodness horse race happening there.
A quick swing is one the place the barrel of the bat is touring a minimum of 75 mph when it strikes or comes closest to the ball. That quantity was chosen, per Mike Petriello, “as a result of that’s the road the place, on a per-swing foundation, a swing goes from unfavourable run worth for a hitter to common, on its solution to optimistic.” All issues being equal, it’s higher to swing laborious. On a person participant foundation, right here’s the correlation between fast-swing fee and wRC+. Roughly talking, 5 proportion factors of fast-swing fee is price three further factors of wRC+:
Right here’s one thing which will shock you: Quick-swing fee (R = .48) has a stronger correlation to wRC+ than common bat pace does (R = .41). I assume that that is the case for a similar purpose that Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity is a extra helpful stat than common exit velocity. You’re ignoring a giant chunk of much less helpful data and specializing in the swings that may end up in actual harm.
To be clear, there’s a sure form of bias baked into these numbers. It’s not simply that quick swings are higher, it’s that the majority gamers must put themselves in good place to get off their finest swing. The extra it’s important to alter to the pitch since you didn’t time it up proper or as a result of it moved in a route you weren’t anticipating, the extra it’s important to change your mechanics, which can drag down your bat pace. Due to this fact, gamers with higher pitch recognition, higher plate self-discipline, and extra adaptable swings will get off tougher swings extra typically. The very best bat pace recorded to date is 88 mph, however 25 totally different gamers have hit a minimum of 87.7 mph, and 67 totally different gamers have hit a minimum of 87.0. In different phrases, a number of gamers are able to hitting the ball as laborious as Aaron Decide or Shohei Ohtani. The actual differentiator is their skill to get to that energy frequently.
The underside of the record works in a similar way. There are many gamers who not often swing laborious, however they’ve totally different causes for it. Few of the gamers on the very backside of the quick swing leaderboard have the capability to swing as laborious as Oneil Cruz. Nonetheless, some are deliberately taking shorter, softer cuts as a result of they’re prioritizing stable contact, whereas some (I’m so sorry, Charlie Blackmon) appear to be swinging softly as a result of they simply can’t put themselves in place to drive the ball. At this time, we’re within the two gamers who finest exemplify the soft-swing-to-celebration pipeline: Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan.
I’ve been checking the underside of the quick swing leaderboard for one purpose: For a lot of the season, neither Arraez nor Kwan had registered a single quick swing. They have been at 0.0%. They have been the one certified gamers with double zeroes, and I used to be rooting laborious for them to make it by means of the entire season that means. By means of July 9, Kwan was operating a 172 wRC+, fifth finest in baseball, whereas Arraez was at 104. The leaderboard was lovely and it seemed like this:
Alas, nothing gold can keep. On July 10, Arraez noticed a juicy 96.5-mph four-seamer from Bryce Miller proper over the center of the plate. The Crown Prince of Cromulent Contact lastly caved to his internal caveman, unleashing a 77.1-mph swing that resulted in a 97.9-mph bullet — proper to second base for a straightforward groundout:
And similar to that, it was a one-horse race. Regardless of coming from nowhere to slug .512 within the first half, Kwan stood alone as the one certified participant in baseball who hadn’t registered a single quick swing all season. Possibly that strain was an excessive amount of for him, as a result of he solely lasted one other 13 days earlier than becoming a member of Arraez. (Extra doubtless, Kwan was merely urgent, as he was at that time mired in one of many worst slumps of his brief profession.) Like Arraez, Kwan yanked a innocent grounder to the proper aspect of the infield. In contrast to Arraez, he didn’t even make nice contact, sending a Shelby Miller splitter on the backside of the zone to first base with a 76.5-mph swing:
A little bit over two weeks later, Kwan lapsed once more, however a minimum of this time he received his cash’s price. Simeon Woods Richardson put a particularly hittable four-seamer belt excessive and proper over the center, and Kwan acknowledged the providing with the bare-minimum quick swing, a 75-mph reduce that despatched the ball 396 ft into the proper area bleachers:
Though that was the quickest tracked swing of Kwan’s season, it solely ranked twentieth when it comes to exit velocity. That’s one of many methods that each of those gamers possess. They’re so good at squaring the ball up that they don’t essentially must swing laborious. Again when bat monitoring knowledge got here out, the system for figuring out precisely how squared-up any batted ball is was launched as properly. It’s a easy proportion based mostly on the pace of the pitch and the pace of the bat. It seems like this:
Squared-Up Share = EV / ((Bat Pace x 1.23) + (0.2116 x Pitch Pace))
Utilizing that system, let me hit you with a trick query: Each time Participant A swings, they’ve a bat pace of 65 mph, and so they sq. the ball up at 90%. Each time Participant B swings, they’ve a bat pace of 65 mph, and so they sq. the ball up at 80%. Who hits the ball tougher?
I advised you this was a trick query. They’re almost an identical. Participant A hits the ball 91.0 mph, whereas Participant B hits it 90.7 mph. Needless to say the squared-up cutoff is 80%. Needless to say a median bat pace of 75 would put you close to the highest of the league and 65 mph would put you close to the very backside. Each single time, Participant B is squaring the ball up and swinging with the bat pace of the common dwelling run, however they’re nonetheless a hair under Participant A. Kwan and Arraez are by no means going to problem for the league lead in exit velocity, however they sq. the ball up each typically and properly.
I’d like to finish on one thing that’s undoubtedly not statistically important, so don’t take it too significantly, however I nonetheless suppose it’s fairly attention-grabbing. Initially of this text, I discussed that 75 mph is the cutoff for a quick swing as a result of, on common, that’s the place swings begin to accrue optimistic run worth. It takes a humongous pattern, like entire-league humongous, to make these numbers statistically important. On a person participant foundation, any correlation you discover shall be tiny, however I made a decision to take a look at each tracked swing this season from each Arraez and Kwan, after which calculate the correlation coefficients between their bat pace and run worth. For Arraez, there was virtually no correlation in any respect (R = .01) between bat pace and run worth. Even in the event you restrict the pattern to balls in play, the correlation solely will increase to .02. For Kwan, the correlation continues to be a particularly weak .06, but it surely a minimum of appears to exist. Out of curiosity, I ran the numbers for Aaron Decide, and located a correlation of .09, going as much as .13 in the event you look solely at balls in play. For Decide, tougher swings are inclined to see higher outcomes. For Kwan, and to a stunning extent for Arraez, the 2 are a lot much less associated. Since they don’t essentially must swing laborious to carry out properly on the plate, perhaps it’s time they deal with what’s most necessary. Proper now Arraez is forward 1-to-2 within the Arduous Swing Avoidance Sweepstakes. He’s received simply over a month to defend that lead.