Edouard Julien Once more | FanGraphs Baseball

Again in February, I wrote (and sang) in regards to the electrical debut of Edouard Julien, which featured glorious plate self-discipline and excessive platoon splits. The rookie second baseman ran a 136 wRC+ and put up 2.8 WAR in simply 109 video games, then hit even higher within the postseason. Going through a gradual eating regimen of righties, Julien balanced out a precipitously excessive strikeout fee with an excellent higher stroll fee. He additionally balanced out roughly common uncooked energy by hitting the ball exhausting persistently. This season, nonetheless, his strikeout fee has gone from excessive to untenable and his contact high quality has taken a big step again. Julien was despatched right down to Triple-A St. Paul to determine issues out in June. Let’s check out what’s happening and the way he would possibly have the ability to repair it.

We should always begin by making it clear that Julien’s season, whereas disappointing, has not been disastrous by any means. He has a 93 wRC+, together with a a lot improved 98 wRC+ in opposition to left-handed pitching (although as soon as once more it’s an especially small pattern dimension). He’s additionally improved his protection, and consequently, he’s put up 0.8 WAR over his 63 video games with Minnesota. Prorated out over a full 162-game season, he’s proper round league common at 2.1 WAR.

Julien’s demotion got here from a confluence of things. The Twins are combating for a Wild Card spot, so each win issues and there wasn’t a lot time to attend for Julien to determine issues out, particularly with so many different good choices obtainable. Twins infielders have amassed 11.9 WAR this season, third most in baseball. The opposite issue was Julien himself. The staff believed the younger participant had the maturity to take the demotion as an opportunity to get again on monitor with out letting it shake his confidence. The Twins communicate glowingly of Julien, they usually had religion that he would determine issues out and slug his method again to Minneapolis. In spite of everything, he was despatched down twice in 2023 and responded properly to it, closing out the season with a 142 wRC+ after being referred to as up for good on June 10.

Sadly, that plan was considerably derailed by accidents. Only a few weeks in the past, when Julien was introduced again as much as fill in for the plantar fasciitis-plagued Carlos Correa, he had run a 30% strikeout fee and .323 slugging share with St. Paul. That’s not horrible, however it’s not slugging your method again onto the roster both, and the staff despatched him again down only a few days later. Little doubt the Twins would have most popular to let him preserve engaged on issues quite than yo-yoing him between the minors and majors.

Let’s begin by taking a look at Julien’s swing. As Esteban Rivera wrote again in February, Julien has one of many steepest vertical bat angles within the majors, that means that his bat is commonly diagonal quite than perpendicular to the bottom. That diagonal bat path helps Julien crush fastballs from righties, because it matches the aircraft of their motion. Esteban in contrast Julien to Freddie Freeman, who has an analogous VBA, however famous that the 2 gamers obtain it very in another way: “Julien makes use of extra aggressive actions to get to completely different pitch heights, whereas Freeman shifts his shoulder aircraft and avoids extra drastic physique changes.” Julien takes ferocious cuts, and his aggressive motion consists of an excessive sideways tilt to his torso, even on pitches on the high of the zone. Take a look at the angle of his belt in comparison with the angle of his shoulders. Oftentimes, his head is sort of parallel to the bottom in the mean time of contact.

There’s no disgrace in having much less barrel variability than Freeman; so does nearly all people else on earth. Nonetheless, when you’re a right-handed pitcher, seeing that excessive tilt on swing after swing offers you a fairly clear plan of assault. With a view to keep away from that bat path, you’re going to throw extra breaking balls and fewer fastballs and changeups. If you do throw a four-seamer, you’re going to ensure you find it on the high of the zone, ideally inside, the place a flatter bat path and angle are required. That’s simply what has occurred.

Julien’s whiff fee in opposition to offspeed pitches has jumped from 41.6% final yr to 51.2% this season. When pitchers have thrown four-seamers, they’ve executed a significantly better job of getting them at or above the highest of the zone, as you may see within the warmth maps under. (In all of the graphics to observe, 2023 is on the left and 2024 is on the suitable.)

Clearly, there’s a e-book on Julien now. This season, his edge fee, the proportion of extraordinarily hard-to-handle pitches on the sting of the strike zone, has elevated from 40.4% to 44.5%. That’s one of many greatest bounce within the league. A few of that enhance in all probability comes from easy unhealthy luck, however some comes from the truth that pitchers are not seeing a rookie and difficult him with fastballs over the guts of the plate till he proves that he can deal with them. The league has adjusted to Julien, and it’s nonetheless his flip to regulate again.

For those who’ve been watching Julien intently this season, one factor has absolutely jumped out at you: the referred to as strikeouts. He’s come to the plate simply 209 occasions, however his 39 referred to as strikeouts are tied for fourth most in baseball. That makes his 18.7% referred to as strikeout fee the very best within the majors. The one different participant above 11% is Cavan Biggio, who has now been DFA’d by two groups this season. Plate self-discipline has been Julien’s calling card since he was a freshman operating a 15% stroll fee at Auburn, however this season, he’s swinging much less general and the pitches he’s swinging at have modified.

Julien is swinging at fewer pitches within the zone and extra at pitches exterior the zone. Taking so many extra hittable pitches has dropped his SEAGER rating from the 92nd percentile to the 52nd. In different phrases, final yr, he made a few of the greatest swing selections in baseball, however this yr he’s barely above common. The largest change within the desk above comes on Julien’s contact fee exterior the zone, and it’s additionally one of many greatest year-to-year shifts in baseball. Usually talking, making much less contact on pitches exterior the zone isn’t essentially a foul factor; it’s typically higher to whiff than to make a certain out by hitting a foul pitch weakly. However Julien’s whiff fee on these pitches may be very almost the very best in baseball, and it illustrates the issue. Final yr, when he chased, he was in a position to foul the ball off almost 1 / 4 of the time. This yr, he’s fouling off simply 16% of them. It’s not simply that he’s chasing extra; it’s that extra typically, he’s chasing pitches he doesn’t have an opportunity at hitting.

Passivity isn’t nearly swing selections. It’s additionally about attacking the baseball. Julien’s exit velocity numbers have fallen, his line drive fee has seen one of many greatest drops in baseball, and his pull fee has nosedived as properly. Right here’s what that appears like in a sprig chart.

Take a look at the house runs in magenta. Final season, Julien’s homers had been cut up evenly between left and proper discipline. This season, he has simply two pulled residence runs. In truth, he has simply 4 pulled fly balls complete! Right here’s what those self same spray charts appear to be if we isolate pulled balls.

This yr, if he hits a ball exhausting to the pull facet, he’s hitting it proper on the second baseman. His groundball fee on pulled balls was round 66% final yr, however this season it’s almost at 80%. Hardly something has even made it onto the outfield grass, and Julien hasn’t ripped a double down the suitable discipline line or into the hole in proper heart all season lengthy. His common exit velocity on pulled balls has dropped by an unlimited 5.2 mph, and his barrel fee has fallen from 11.6% all the best way to 2.7%

Check out that final column. When he goes the opposite method, Julien’s common exit velocity has elevated by greater than 5 factors. In response to Baseball Savant’s run values, Julien was price 16 runs when he hit the ball the opposite method in 2023, tied for eighth most in baseball even though he solely had 408 plate appearances. This season, his swing is in some way much more geared for reverse discipline contact. Nonetheless, he’s additionally been much less productive when he hits the ball to left. You may see why when you look under in any respect the additional grey within the launch angle graph on the suitable. He’s hitting extra lazy fly balls and fewer line drives.

To my eye, the downturn in swing selections, contact high quality, and pull fee go hand in hand. They communicate to a participant who’s caught in between; he’s late on fastballs and early on tender stuff. Listed here are warmth maps of Julien’s common exit velocity this season and final yr.

You may see that his completely happy zone has moved from the center of the plate to the skin. Extra importantly, it’s additionally gotten a lot narrower. There’s darkish blue on the sides of the strike zone, particularly the within nook. That change is much more stark when you have a look at his slugging share on balls in play within the graphs under. Julien doesn’t have a scorching zone anyplace within the backside third of the zone, and he’s ice chilly on the internal third.

This season, the one a part of the strike zone the place Julien has been in a position drive the ball persistently is up and away. However now check out warmth maps of his swing charges. Final season, he was searching for pitches over the center and hitting them exhausting. This yr, he’s searching pitches up and in, the spot the place he’s been making the weakest contact.

That’s not a coincidence. Earlier I confirmed you a chart that depicted pitchers elevating their four-seamers and bringing them inside extra typically. Julien is simply following the fastballs, which is smart, as even on this down yr, he’s nonetheless been nice in opposition to them. Nonetheless, that pattern has affected his swing selections in opposition to different pitches too. Listed here are his swing charges in opposition to breaking and offspeed pitches. He’s nonetheless far more centered on the internal third.

The tip result’s that there’s much more space within the strike zone the place Julien can’t deal with a pitch and appears all too keen to take referred to as strikes. There are a number of delicate advantages to searching pitches over the center of the plate. To start with, pitchers throw the ball over the center sort of quite a bit. For those who’re a pitcher concentrating on anyone spot on the sting of the strike zone, a small miss leaves you close to the center. This season, 26.7% of all pitches have been within the coronary heart of the zone, and through the pitch-tracking period, that fee has by no means as soon as fallen under 25%. Alternatively, when you cut up the strike zone into thirds by top (higher third, belt excessive, decrease third) and width (inside, center, exterior) no location has ever had a fee above 20.1%. For those who’re searching for pitches over the guts of the plate, you’ve bought a greater likelihood of getting the pitch you’re searching for. The second motive is that when you’re searching for pitches over the center, something near your candy spot remains to be in a hittable location. On the lookout for pitches over the center leaves you in a position to deal with a bigger proportion of the strike zone. If you’re all the time searching pitches in a single nook, you’re writing off a complete portion of the zone. Pitchers have been completely happy to oblige Julien, throwing him extra pitches away and down and in.

Right here’s one thing I wrote again in Might: “For some time now, I’ve suspected that there’s a super degree of aggression for every batter. For those who’re too aggressive, you’re going to finish up hanging out method an excessive amount of and making poor contact on pitches which might be exhausting to barrel up. For those who’re too passive, you’ll let lots of hittable pitches go by, and if you do swing, you’ll be much less more likely to assault the ball and get your A-swing off. That stability level is completely different for every hitter.” Because the possessor of one of many recreation’s greatest batting eyes, Julien’s ultimate degree of aggression will seemingly depart him with one of many decrease swing charges within the league. However even by his requirements, it certain looks as if he’s veered too far towards passivity this season. He’s letting hittable pitches go by, and when he does swing, he’s letting the ball get so deep that he can’t drive it the best way he did final yr.

If there’s one factor that the brand new bat monitoring knowledge has made clear to me, it’s the significance of attacking the baseball out in entrance of the plate. Your bat retains accelerating because it travels via the strike zone. That’s why pulled balls, the place contact essentially occurs farther out in entrance, have larger exit velocities and higher outcomes. If I labored for the Twins, I might do a pair issues. First, I might do a celebration dance, as a result of it looks as if it will be very cool to work for the Twins. Second, I might encourage Julien to assault the baseball. I’d inform him to give attention to catching the ball out in entrance throughout his pregame work, to get a really feel for turning on the ball and driving it once more, and for dropping his bat head on pitches on the backside of the zone. I’d additionally give him an project. I’d inform him that for a number of video games, he ought to swing away and overlook about ready for the suitable pitch. I’d say, “I do know you’ve an excellent eye, however I don’t need to see you’re taking a stroll for the subsequent three video games. I simply need you to go up there and keep in mind what it feels prefer to assault the ball, even when it means lots of swinging strikeouts.”

Clearly, the Twins know Julien’s swing and his head significantly better than I do, and I can’t think about they might do something as reckless because the stunt I simply described. I’m certain there are far more affordable methods to assist him reset each his strategy and his swing. Nonetheless, it’s essential to understand that Julien’s recreation is all the time going to be one thing of a tightrope stroll. Even when he’s at his greatest, his recreation options lots of strikeouts and walks, which implies that his success might be very BABIP-dependent and he’ll run extra cold and hot than most hitters. As a result of he doesn’t make extraordinarily loud contact, he must hit the ball exhausting and within the air persistently. He gained’t have the ability to do this if he’s not swinging at his pitch and if he’s not taking his trademark max-effort lower.

It’s essential to keep in mind that to this point in his younger profession Julien has performed simply 172 video games and made 617 PAs on the massive league degree. In different phrases, he has barely greater than a season’s price of expertise. We’re coping with small pattern sizes, particularly this yr. Julien was seemingly due for a bit of little bit of regression, and whereas it’s by no means encouraging to see a participant wrestle, this downturn hasn’t actually modified my thoughts about his batting eye or his ceiling. I’m impressed by how properly he’s managed to carry out regardless of the pretty excessive modifications beneath the hood. Since his return to Triple-A on the finish of July, Julien has a 121 wRC+, and he’s at present using a seven-game hit streak, together with a homer on Tuesday. Nonetheless, he’s hanging out quite a bit, and there’s positively extra work to do earlier than the Twins can make sure that he’ll have the ability to assist them down the stretch and, sure, rule once more.