The way to Argue About Clutchness

This in all probability isn’t an issue for most individuals, however I’m plagued continually by the reminiscence of irritating baseball arguments from days previous. I in all probability get into these arguments greater than most individuals, partially due to my (and I hope it doesn’t sound conceited to say this) huge data of the game, however largely as a result of I’ve lived most of my life in New Jersey, which his dwelling to probably the most cussed, tendentious folks you’d ever have the misfortune of assembly.

One such argument happened in all probability shut to fifteen years in the past, once I ruined what was speculated to be a calming Friday night down the shore by getting right into a shouting match over the difficulty of Alex Rodriguez vs. Derek Jeter. I most well-liked A-Rod, who would go on to complete his profession with a slugging share greater than 100 factors larger than that of his Yankees teammate. I used to be arguing in opposition to somebody whose case rested on Jeter being “extra clutch.”

For those who’re sufficiently old to recollect what “analytics bloggers” like me thought of that argument within the 2010s, you may perceive my quickness to anger and doubtless think about the colours my face turned. When the mud settled, Jeter — who, it seems, was truly an distinctive hitter all alongside — did end with a greater profession postseason wRC+ than A-Rod. However it was shut: 121 to Jeter, 116 for Rodriguez.

However the basis of my place has stayed with me: A greater hitter who performs the identical in stress conditions — or perhaps a little worse — must be extra productive within the clutch than an inferior participant who raises his recreation. How does that line of reasoning maintain up? We’re in a little bit of a sluggish interval between the commerce deadline and the sharp finish of the playoff race — plus Dan Szymborski simply wrote in regards to the White Sox and their world-historical screwing of the pooch, which is the one factor in baseball I truly care about proper now — so now appears nearly as good a time as any to search out out. Perhaps this text will present a helpful public service to the cussed and argumentative amongst you sooner or later down the road.

So let’s pit the clutchest hitters in baseball this season in opposition to the most effective. Who would you slightly have up with the sport on the road? I’ll use wRC+ as a proxy for normal hitter high quality and, um, Clutch (which charges how a lot a hitter raises his recreation in higher-leverage conditions) as a proxy for clutchness.

We nearly bought some nice symmetry right here. There are 15 certified hitters this season with a Clutch score of 1.00 or higher, which, in line with the FanGraphs glossary, is “nice.” Kind the identical leaderboard by general wRC+, and also you get 15 gamers with a wRC+ of 148 or higher. Which, should you shut your eyes and cross your fingers, is mainly a wRC+ of 150.

Just one participant seems within the high 15 in each metrics, which from the place I’m sitting mainly makes him the favored little one of the gods of fortune. Perhaps it’s higher to be fortunate than good, however it’s greatest to be each. Anybody wish to guess who this golden god of a person is? You bought a reputation in thoughts?

Jurickson Profar. What a world.

Profar however, situational stats don’t bode nicely for the context-neutral mashers. 4 of the remaining 14 high hitters in wRC+ — Aaron Decide, Bryce Harper, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez — are literally within the backside 15 in Clutch. Steven Kwan, no. 11 in wRC+ this season, can also be down close to the underside of the Clutch leaderboard. Taking Profar out of the equation for each side, listed here are your 28 contestants.

I don’t learn about you, but when I had to decide on an inventory of hitters to win me a recreation, or a World Sequence, I’d take the record with Decide, Soto, Ohtani, and Harper.

In high-leverage conditions, outlined as a plate look with a leverage index of two.0 or larger, the Good record and the Clutch record are very shut, however the guys on the Clutch record have been higher this 12 months on the combination.

So the higher hitters stroll extra and have the next OBP, however the clutch ones hit for extra energy. And should you drill down on particular person efficiency, clutch hitters dominate the highest of the record as nicely. I’ll warn you, that is the place issues get a bit of bizarre.

As a result of holy crap, what occurred to Harper?

Now, a number of these tendentious New Jerseyans I talked about earlier are Phillies followers, and I nonetheless hear their baleful cries. The Phillies, who appeared just like the 2001 Mariners till a couple of week earlier than the All-Star break, are at the moment within the midst of a slide that’s a pair bounces away from rivaling the one the Dodgers went on in 2017. The general public, suffice it to say, is just not taking it nicely.

A few of that response stems from the truth that a number of the people who find themselves appearing just like the Phillies won’t ever win once more are nonetheless twitchy from watching the Eagles begin 10-1 after which appear to be they have been by no means going to win once more. That form of — and that is going to sound imply and I don’t care — soccer mentality is ill-suited to baseball, which is a sport the place you may’t name completely different performs or blitz extra, and the place simply attempting tougher is commonly counterproductive.

However there’s been criticism of Harper developing small in huge moments and, yeah, seems that’s proper on the cash.

In 43 high-leverage plate appearances this 12 months, Harper is hitting .152/.326/.182. The 5 hits he’s managed embrace 4 singles and a double. It boggles the thoughts for 3 causes: First, it’s exhausting to think about anybody being that unhealthy in any pattern. Second, Harper’s been superior basically this 12 months; his struggles in high-leverage conditions solely entered into this text as a result of he’s been one of many 15 greatest hitters within the majors this season. And third, all of us keep in mind this, proper?

OMG BRYCE HARPER!!! WOW!!! THE SWING OF HIS LIFE!!! pic.twitter.com/9UWmROAuNV

— FOX Sports activities: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 23, 2022

I used to be within the constructing for that dwelling run. It’s one of many clutchest issues I’ve ever seen in individual, and never unrepresentative of Harper’s playoff profession. In 49 profession postseason video games, he’s hitting .276/.383/.613. Since becoming a member of the Phillies, he’s .286/.455/.643 within the postseason and .278/.417/.493 in 295 high-leverage regular-season plate appearances. Earlier than this annus horribilis of the clutch, Harper was a .299/.433/.546 hitter as a Phillie in high-leverage regular-season conditions.

I’m not unreceptive to the likelihood that Harper is urgent in huge conditions this season. He’s extra conspicuously conscious of his context and leverage scenario — each in-game and relative to the pursuit of a championship — than any hitter I’ve ever seen. And the road between rising to the event and attempting to do an excessive amount of is impossibly skinny.

But when I had the sport on the road and the selection between having Harper or Varsho on the plate, I’d nonetheless decide Harper. Clutchness is just not intangible; in baseball, it’s truly extremely quantifiable. However solely on reflection.

You wish to understand how I do know? As a result of Harper led the league — actually led the league — in Clutch final 12 months. In actual fact, let’s do the identical experiment utilizing final 12 months’s stats: Take the highest 15 within the league in wRC+ and Clutch in 2023, and evaluate their high-leverage efficiency in 2024.

This time, there are three crossovers: Harper, Carroll, and Ronald Acuña Jr. So by taking them out, we’re lowering the pattern to 12 good hitters and 12 clutch hitters. 5 hitters — Freeman, Soto, Ozuna, Harper, and Ohtani — appeared on the Good record in each 2023 and 2024. Solely two — Stott and Carroll — appeared on each Clutch lists.

Anyway, taking that longer lead time under consideration, right here’s how the most effective and most clutch hitters of 2023, respectively, are doing in high-leverage conditions in 2024.

This time there’s no comparability. The nice hitters from 2023 are miles forward of the clutch hitters.

I may’ve saved myself a number of hassle by doing this math all these years in the past. The rationale I misplaced that argument is that it was largely backward-looking. You may inform who has been a greater hitter in clutch conditions, however previous returns usually are not a assure of future efficiency. Harping on the previous will be cathartic for functions of venting on Twitter or discuss radio, however it’s not a constructive predictor of the long run. If you wish to discover probably the most clutch hitters of tomorrow, you’re higher off the most effective general hitters of at present.