It’s been a superb week for the Padres. As common, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was busy forward of the commerce deadline, and whereas this yr’s additions weren’t as eye-catching because the 2022 commerce for Juan Soto — what on earth probably might be? — Preller significantly improved a middling bullpen and moreover fortified a skinny rotation, rattling the price of the prospects dealt alongside the way in which. In the meantime, the Padres elevated their probabilities of reaching the playoffs by taking a pair of video games from the Dodgers in San Diego, wins that not solely pulled them nearer to first place than they’ve been since early Could, but in addition clinched them the season sequence between the 2 groups, giving them the potential tiebreaker in the event that they had been to complete with the identical document as Los Angeles. All of this, together with the truth that the Padres have one of many league’s best remaining schedules, provides them their greatest shot at pulling off an NL West upset since Preller took the reins late within the 2014 season.
On Tuesday, hours after the crew added relievers Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing from the Marlins and starter Martín Pérez from the Pirates, the Padres rallied to beat the 5 first-inning runs that the Dodgers held on starter Matt Waldron. Down 5-3 coming into the underside of the ninth, Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill each homered off Blake Treinen, and after Robert Suarez buzzsawed by means of the Dodgers on 10 pitches within the prime of the tenth, Donovan Solano’s bases-loaded single plated the profitable run. On Wednesday, the Padres tagged Clayton Kershaw for seven runs (three earned) in his second begin since getting back from shoulder surgical procedure; San Diego even snapped Kershaw’s main league document of 423 consecutive begins with a strikeout.
The wins gave the Padres a 9-1 document over their final 10 video games; they strung collectively a season-high seven-game profitable streak in opposition to the Guardians, Nationals, and Orioles from July 20–27, a span that included Dylan Stop’s no-hitter on July 25. With a 13-9 document for July on the heels of a 16-11 Could and 15-13 June, San Diego has now put collectively profitable data in three straight months, one thing it did not do final yr. (That crew couldn’t even handle back-to-back profitable months.) What’s extra, the Padres despatched the Dodgers to their first dropping month (11-13) since April 2018 and trimmed the division result in 4.5 video games, the smallest it’s been since Could 4, which coincidentally was the day they traded for Luis Arraez.
So, are the Padres for actual? They entered Friday with a 59-51 document, one sport behind the Braves (59-49) for the NL’s prime Wild Card spot however solely a half-game forward of the Diamondbacks (58-51) and a sport forward of the Mets (57-51). But it’s essential to level out that this has been a streaky crew all season, one which’s struggled to flee the gravitational pull of .500. Cherrypicking a couple of dates, the Padres had been 9-9 on April 14, 18-18 on Could 4, 28-28 on Could 26, 35-35 on June 10, 40-40 on June 21, and 50-50 on July 19 earlier than happening their present jag. They even hid one other 9-1 run in that forest of .500 data, from June 19–29; that lifted them from 37-40 to 46-41. Examine their trajectory so far to that of the Braves:
The take-home level is that the Braves have been comfortably above .500 all season lengthy, whereas the Padres not often have been. Previous to June 26, their eighty fifth sport of the season, they completed the day additional than two video games away from .500 in both course simply 5 occasions, then slipped again in that zone from July 10–21.
I do assume there are causes to be optimistic in regards to the Padres going ahead. They’ve spent many of the season underperforming their projected profitable percentages, generally by about 30 factors, however their present .536 mark is simply 4 factors shy of their .540 Pythagenpat and 7 factors shy of their .543 BaseRuns mark. Whereas they’ve been with out Fernando Tatis Jr. since June 21 on account of a stress response in his proper femur, the remainder of their lineup has rounded into form. For the primary 4 weeks of the season, Machado was confined to designated hitter responsibility whereas he continued to get better from October surgical procedure to restore the extensor tendon in his proper elbow. Supervisor Mike Shildt primarily used light-hitting Tyler Wade as his third baseman, with Graham Pauley and the extra productive Eguy Rosario getting time as properly. The group hit simply .228/.291/.316 (79 wRC+) in that span, and Machado himself hit simply .241/.293/.361 (89 wRC+) by means of the top of Could, however he’s raked at a extra consultant .298/.347/.517 (141 wRC+) clip since, with 11 of his 16 dwelling runs coming previously two months, together with two on Tuesday evening.
In the meantime, Xander Bogaerts hit simply .212/.265/.316 (68 wRC+) earlier than struggling a fracture in his left shoulder whereas diving for a ball on Could 24. Since returning to the lineup on July 12, he’s been completely on hearth (.453/.464/.623, 206 wRC+), accumulating a number of hits in eight out of 13 video games and going hitless simply as soon as; the spree has lifted his season wRC+ to 99. Arraez has hit for a 109 wRC+ whereas splitting time between first and DH, Donovan Solano, one other early-Could addition, has hit for a 121 wRC+ since becoming a member of the crew, and each Ha-Seong Kim (102 wRC+) and Jake Cronenworth (109 wRC+) have been above common as properly.
The one place the place the Padres aren’t getting better-than-average manufacturing of late is the David Peralta/Bryce Johnson platoon in proper subject. Tatis has been cleared for gentle baseball exercise however has no timeline but for his return, and whereas Preller couldn’t provide one on Tuesday, he did say, “Each report I’ve gotten has been actually constructive.”
Preller’s large focus forward of the deadline was in fortifying a bullpen that at present ranks tenth within the NL with a 4.07 ERA and fifth with a 3.74 FIP. Scott, arguably one of the best nearer and greatest lefty obtainable on the deadline, posted a 1.18 ERA and three.25 FIP with a 29.1% strikeout price in 45.2 innings for the Marlins, whereas righty Jason Adam, acquired from the Rays on Monday, put up a 2.49 ERA and three.36 FIP with a 27.8% strikeout price in 47 innings earlier than the commerce. With Suaraz doing simply high-quality because the nearer, Scott and Adam have slotted into setup roles, bumping the remainder of the crew’s relievers down within the pecking order, with Hoeing (2.70 ERA and three.26 FIP in 30 innings for the Marlins) taking up because the lengthy man. As ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez famous, Scott, Adam, Suarez, and the earlier pair of setup males, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon, have mixed to carry hitters to a .183/.260/.285 slash line. To make room for the newcomers, Stephen Kolek was positioned on the IL with elbow tendinitis, Logan Gillaspie was optioned to Triple-A El Paso, Enyel De Los Santos was traded to the Yankees, and Austin Davis (the lone lefty of the group) was designated for project; these 4 pitchers had mixed for -0.2 WAR over 112.1 innings, with Kolek the one one within the black. In order that’s a major improve.
If there’s a criticism to be fabricated from Preller’s deadline efficiency — past the same old I-can’t-believe-he-traded-all-those-prospects ones and his not making hypothetical offers for gamers who proved out of attain for each crew (hi there, Luis Robert Jr.) — it’s that he didn’t do extra for the rotation. Stop has been glorious, as has Michael King following a tough first month, and Waldron has proven that he and his knuckleball are greater than a novelty act. Nonetheless, the present beginning 5 has been with out each Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove since each landed on the IL on June 1. Pérez, an All-Star two years in the past for the Rangers, has reverted to his journeyman kind, pitching to a 5.20 ERA and 4.95 FIP in 83 innings for the Pirates. He can flip in 5 innings each fifth day, which is one thing Adam Mazur — who was traded to the Marlins within the Scott deal — wasn’t doing; the 23-year-old rookie totaled 33.2 innings with a 7.49 ERA and 6.22 FIP over eight begins, solely two of which lasted longer than 4.2 innings. For the quick time period, Pérez raises the ground, however he’s not anyone who ought to take the ball in October.
Darvish, who posted a 3.20 ERA and three.52 FIP by means of his first 11 begins, was initially sidelined by a groin pressure and hasn’t pitched since. His return was slowed by a bout of elbow irritation in late June, after which on July 6 he was positioned on the restricted listing as he left the Padres for what the crew defined was “a private matter involving his household.” The Padres hope he’ll return this season however at present there’s no timetable; Shildt stated on the time that Darvish’s absence can be indefinite and provided little extra in the way in which of particulars. “Clearly we wish to respect his privateness. He desires to ensure all people is aware of he’s bodily in a great spot. He’s nonetheless engaged on his craft,” stated Shildt, including, “The first factor… that we wish to do is simply make sure that Yu feels liked and supported by his Padre household.”
Musgrove was sidelined by proper elbow and triceps discomfort, however in contrast to Darvish, he was not pitching properly, as his 5.66 ERA and 5.35 FIP attest. It was his second time on the IL in as many months, as he missed about half of Could on account of elbow irritation; quickly sufficient, the underlying trigger — a bone spur and a bone bruise in his proper elbow — was found, and he acquired injections of cortisone and platelet-rich plasma. He’s scheduled to exit on a rehab project on Sunday, however it’s an open query as as to if he’ll resemble the top-of-the-rotation model of himself when he returns to the Padres.
For as flimsy because the rotation has regarded on paper with out Darvish and Musgrove, and with Randy Vásquez filling in one of many different spots whereas averaging lower than 5 innings per flip himself, San Diego starters have posted the NL’s second-lowest ERA (3.89) and fourth-lowest FIP (3.83) for the reason that begin of June; their 4.6 WAR is second in that span, a reasonably spectacular feat. Preller reportedly explored trades for Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, and even previous pal Blake Snell, however with prime prospects Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries stated to be off-limits, it doesn’t sound as if discussions went deep, and anyway, from that group solely Flaherty and Kikuchi had been dealt.
That the previous went to the Dodgers and rated as the uncommon impression transfer this deadline is a possible downside for the Padres. Certainly, the Dodgers didn’t sit nonetheless, moreover including Tommy Edman, Amed Rosario, and Michael Kopech, all of whom at the very least assist the crew shore up depth that’s been compromised by a slew of accidents and underperformances. In Dan Szymborski’s post-deadline ZiPS check-in, the Padres elevated their odds of creating the playoffs by 3.2% (from 59.7% to 62.9%), however the Dodgers did so by 2.7% (from 93.6% to 96.3%). Contemplating that the Dodgers are those in first place and have a better potential path by means of the postseason ought to they dangle on to the division lead, their odds of profitable the World Collection went up by 2.4% whereas these of San Diego fell by 0.1%. In the meantime, the Mets and Braves outgained the Padres by each measures.
As for the gamers Preller did commerce, 2022 first-round decide Dylan Lesko, a 20-year-old righty who was despatched to Tampa Bay within the Adam deal, was certainly one of simply 4 50 FV prospects dealt by Eric Longenhagen’s reckoning, whereas the 23-year-old Mazur and 20-year-old Robby Snelling, who each went to Miami, are 40+ FV prospects. Lesko and Snelling are too removed from the majors to assist this yr’s squad, and Mazur fell quick in his alternative. Preller, who has a contract by means of 2026, remains to be considered being on the new seat given final yr’s crash and burn, so he wasn’t able to attend. Apart from, he’s not one given to prospect-hugging anyway. Through Gonzalez:
“One factor we’ve by no means been petrified of — we’re going to commerce gamers,” Preller stated. “I don’t know philosophically if it’s proper, flawed — we’re going to commerce gamers, they’re going to indicate up within the large leagues… and are going to do actually good issues. But when we get what we’re seeking to do, and it really works for us this yr and over the following three to 5 years, we’re content material with that.
“Billy Beane… would at all times inform me, ‘I’ve traded All-Stars, MVPs, Cy Younger winners, and 20 years later we’ve finished quite a lot of profitable and we’re nonetheless on this spot.’ We take it like we’re going to commerce proficient gamers; that’s a praise to our scouting group, actually, and our improvement group.”
It could work out for Preller this yr. Per our Playoff Odds, the Padres’ 71.6% probability at reaching the postseason and 14.4% probability of profitable the division are each greater than they’ve been since mid-Could 2023, and a fast perusal of our historic graphs reveals that they haven’t had division odds this excessive this late within the season since Preller took over in August 2014. Positive, final yr’s loaded squad might need been extra eye-catching due to Soto and Snell, however this one has an actual probability to make good on all of that wheeling and dealing.