The most important optimistic of this irritating Chicago Cubs season has been the emergence of Shota Imanaga as a frontline starter. As you in all probability keep in mind, Imanaga was launched to the broader American baseball-watching public when he began the gold medal recreation of the 2023 World Baseball Traditional for Crew Japan.
Properly, he’s not the one Cubs starter who had a breakout efficiency towards Crew USA on the 2023 WBC. Throughout pool play, Javier Assad got here out of the bullpen at Chase Discipline and mowed down three innings’ price of American hitters. With solely 9 appearances’ price of main league expertise, Assad was a relative unknown on the time. Since then, he’s claimed an everyday spot in Chicago rotation, and pitched very properly.
He’s considered one of simply 91 pitchers who’s thrown 200 or extra innings over the previous two seasons. Of these, he’s eighth in ERA, with a mark of three.13. The factor is, I’m probably not certain how he’s doing it. FIP takes a particularly dim view of the right-hander, who turned 27 on Tuesday. Assad’s FIP is 4.59 this yr, and over the previous two seasons mixed, it’s 4.43, which is 68th out of these 91 pitchers over the previous two seasons.
And it’s simple to see why. Assad, regardless of being within the backside half of that record of starters in strikeout price, has the fifth-highest stroll price:
Javier Assad Defies the Odds
| Stat | ERA | FIP | Okay% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | HardHit% | BABIP | LOB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worth | 3.13 | 4.43 | 21.0 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 44.7 | 39.9 | .272 | 83.8 |
| Rank | eighth | sixth | 62nd | 87th | forty sixth | twenty ninth | 53rd | sixteenth | 1st |
*Out of 91 pitchers with not less than 200 IP since 2023
With the instruments accessible a decade in the past, we’d simply have a look at that and dismiss Assad as a fluke. Clearly that BABIP and that strand price are going to regress, and his ERA shall be again within the fours very quickly.
Even with trendy instruments, I’m at one thing of a loss in relation to explaining Assad’s success. His Stuff+ doesn’t pop off scale. His high quality of contact numbers are higher than his bat-missing numbers, however they’re not any higher than common. He’s proper in the midst of the Baseball Savant leaderboard for EV50 and xwOBA. The one space wherein Assad is close to the highest is opponent contact price on pitches outdoors the zone; Assad’s opponents are making contact on 69.8% of swings outdoors the zone, which is the fifth-highest mark within the league. Assad additionally has the fifth-smallest hole between his in-zone and out-of-zone contact price.
If an irregular proportion of Assad’s contact is coming outdoors the zone, that might permit him to get by along with his low-strikeout/high-walk peripherals. However he’s simply giving up plenty of contact in every single place. This season, 238 pitchers have allowed 25 or extra balls in play on pitches outdoors the zone. Of these, Assad has the 57th-lowest opponent wOBA on these balls (.232), however 20.6% of his opponent contact comes on balls outdoors the strike zone, which is a hundred and tenth.
One factor Assad has is a extremely diverse repertoire. This season, 502 pitchers have thrown 250 or extra pitches, however solely 45 of these pitchers have thrown 5 or extra totally different pitch sorts not less than 10% of the time. Assad is a kind of, and he has a sixth pitch, a changeup, that he’s thrown 3.6% of the time.
These six pitches cowl a variety of greater than 20 miles per hour, and should you have a look at the clock chart for the motion profiles of these choices, it appears to be like like a illustration of the time a school junior spends at Jungle Jim’s on Thirsty Thursday: It goes from 7 o’clock all the way in which to 2:45 or so. Expressed on a graph, it appears to be like like this:
Fairly, isn’t it? Kermit the Frog checked out that graphic and instantly reached for his banjo.
I feel it’s truthful to say that Assad has an overfull toolkit of pitches, which forces opponents to cowl an unlimited vary of velocity and motion profiles. Assad segregates a few of his pitches by opponent handedness (curveballs and changeups to lefties, sliders to righties), however he throws his fastballs to opponents on both facet of the plate. It’s lots for a hitter to maintain monitor of, however the advantages of such an eclectic pitch combine appear to be intangible.
However right here’s the factor about ready for Assad to regress. Since 2010, there have been roughly 1,900 particular person pitcher seasons of 100 innings or extra. On solely 79 events has a pitcher of that prime quantity outperformed his FIP by greater than a run. Solely six pitchers have completed it twice, and solely three of these have completed it in consecutive years:
Recidivist FIP-Beaters of the 2010s and Past
| Season | Title | Crew | IP | Okay% | BB% | Okay-BB% | ERA | FIP | E-F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Blake Snell | TBR | 180.2 | 31.6% | 9.1% | 22.4% | 1.89 | 2.94 | -1.05 |
| 2023 | Blake Snell | SDP | 180 | 31.5% | 13.3% | 18.2% | 2.25 | 3.44 | -1.19 |
| 2014 | Chris Younger | SEA | 165 | 15.7% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.65 | 5.02 | -1.36 |
| 2015 | Chris Younger | KCR | 123.1 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 3.06 | 4.52 | -1.46 |
| 2011 | Jeremy Hellickson | TBR | 189 | 15.1% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 2.95 | 4.44 | -1.49 |
| 2012 | Jeremy Hellickson | TBR | 177 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 3.10 | 4.60 | -1.50 |
| 2011 | Johnny Cueto | CIN | 156 | 16.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 2.31 | 3.45 | -1.15 |
| 2014 | Johnny Cueto | CIN | 243.2 | 25.2% | 6.8% | 18.4% | 2.25 | 3.30 | -1.05 |
| 2012 | Miguel González | BAL | 105.1 | 17.7% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 3.25 | 4.38 | -1.13 |
| 2014 | Miguel González | BAL | 159 | 16.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 3.23 | 4.89 | -1.67 |
| 2018 | Mike Fiers | DET/OAK | 172 | 19.5% | 5.2% | 14.3% | 3.56 | 4.75 | -1.19 |
| 2019 | Mike Fiers | OAK | 184.2 | 16.7% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 3.90 | 4.97 | -1.07 |
Assad is at the moment at 94 2/3 innings, which signifies that both in his begin on Friday or the one after, he’s going to make it seven. See, once I mentioned his ERA would go “again” to the 4.00s earlier, I meant that figuratively, as a result of Assad has by no means posted an ERA within the 4.00s over a season. Not solely that, he’s by no means not outperformed his FIP by greater than a run:
Javier Assad Defies the Odds, Half 2
| Season | IP | Okay% | BB% | ERA | FIP | E-F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 37.2 | 18.1% | 12.0% | 3.11 | 4.49 | -1.39 |
| 2023 | 109.1 | 20.9% | 9.1% | 3.05 | 4.29 | -1.24 |
| 2024 | 94.2 | 21.0% | 10.2% | 3.23 | 4.59 | -1.36 |
The gathering of pitchers on the record above, aside from Cueto, have all been oddballs. Snell wrecked his FIP in each of his (contentious) Cy Younger seasons, however by no means on another event. Fiers and Younger had been each excessive fly ball pitchers, whereas González and Hellickson had been each 6-foot-1 righties with kitchen sink-y, pitch-to-contact repertoires. Similar to Assad.
Can Assad maintain doing this? Defying the percentages to outperform his peripherals? I suppose. He’s by no means completed anything.