Dodgers Land Their Impression Starter in Jack Flaherty

Final week, when the Dodgers designated lefty starter James Paxton for task, common supervisor Brandon Gomes spoke of the workforce concentrating on “an impact-type arm” forward of the commerce deadline. Gomes and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman hit their goal shortly earlier than the 6 p.m. ET deadline on Tuesday, touchdown Tigers righty Jack Flaherty in trade for a pair of prospects. Individually, the Dodgers additionally fortified their outfield depth by buying Kevin Kiermaier from the Blue Jays for lefty Ryan Yarbrough.

For all of the discuss in regards to the top-of-the-line starters who may very well be moved earlier than the deadline, probably the most mentioned ones apart from Flaherty — the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal, the Giants’ Blake Snell, and the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet — all stayed put, making the Dodgers’ addition of the 28-year-old Flaherty really feel that rather more impactful. To accumulate the Los Angeles native — who was traded on deadline day for the second yr in a row, after being dealt from the Cardinals to the Orioles final August 1 — the Dodgers parted with 21-year-old catcher Thayron Liranzo and 24-year-old shortstop Trey Sweeney.

After years of accidents capped by a subpar marketing campaign that included the aforementioned change of handle, Flaherty is within the midst of his finest season in half a decade. As a result of he’s skipped a few turns because of injections of painkillers (not cortisone) to handle recurrent decrease again ache (one on June 10, the second on July 2) after which had Monday’s flip scratched in anticipation of his being dealt, his 106.2 innings is 1.1 in need of the brink to qualify for the ERA title, however his numbers are spectacular. Amongst AL pitchers with not less than 100 innings, he ranks seventh with a 2.95 ERA and sixth with a 3.11 FIP. Amongst all AL pitchers, he’s tied for eleventh with 2.5 WAR, and among the many pitchers traded this month, he’s second solely to the extra contact-oriented Erick Fedde (2.7). Flaherty’s numbers are an enormous enchancment from final yr’s 4.96 ERA and 4.36 FIP in 144.1 innings. Whereas placing up a 6.75 ERA post-trade, he was bumped from the Orioles’ rotation in mid-September and completed the season within the bullpen.

The foremost optimistic for Flaherty’s 2023 season was his well being. His 27 begins had been his most in a season since 2019; he totaled simply 32 from 2020–22 because of the pandemic-shortened season, an indirect pressure, and recurrent shoulder woes, which mixed to ship him to the 60-day injured listing 3 times in that span. That higher well being — and a few post-trade enchancment of his fastball, albeit together with his slider and curve regressing considerably — helped him internet a one-year, $14 million deal from the Tigers, with one other $1 million attainable by way of efficiency bonuses ($250,000 apiece for reaching 26 and 28 begins, $500,000 for reaching 30).

As I famous once I checked in on Flaherty about six weeks in the past, probably the most stunning facet of his efficiency is his career-high 32% strikeout price, second solely to Crochet amongst AL pitchers with 100 innings. It’s 2.1 share factors forward of his earlier private finest, set in 2019, and 9.2 factors forward of final yr’s mark, making it the majors’ greatest year-to-year soar:

Along with enhancing his strikeout price, Flaherty is producing a 43% groundball price, his highest since his 2017 rookie marketing campaign. As I’ve famous earlier than, I’m an enormous fan of that combo; a couple of years in the past, whereas writing about Luis Castillo, I tapped into our then-new “Plus Stats” — particularly our league-indexed strikeout and groundball charges — to provide one thing known as KGB+, a junk stat that shines a light-weight on pitchers who mix strikeouts and groundballs. That’s usually an excellent technique for fulfillment, if not the one route there. Flaherty is presently seventh within the majors by that measure:

Flaherty’s revival owes a lot to the offseason work he did with Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter and assistant pitching coach Robin Lund, who helped him clear up his mechanics, enhancing his skill to repeat his supply by specializing in his posterior gluteal muscle tissue and hamstrings as an alternative of his quadriceps. As he advised the Detroit Free Press’ Evan Petzold in Could, “It’s allowed me to have slightly bit higher velo and keep behind the ball and be slightly bit extra true on my heater… after which be capable to repeat my slider again and again and throw it slightly bit tougher. I can simply really feel the sharpness of it when it leaves my hand, which is one thing final yr I didn’t actually really feel.”

Below the path of his new coaches, Flaherty additionally adjusted the grip of his slider and ditched the cutter he threw 9.1% of the time final yr in favor of extra four-seamers and sliders. He’s additionally elevated the typical velocity of his four-seamer by 0.4 mph (from 93.1 to 93.5) and of his slider by 0.6 mph (from 84.2 to 84.8). He’s getting a bit extra trip and extra break on the fastball, however a bit much less motion in each planes on the slider. Relative to final yr, he’s lowered the wOBA in opposition to his fastball by 68 factors and in opposition to his two breaking pitches by 111 factors. He’s producing whiff charges of 38.9% by way of his slider and 44.0% together with his knuckle curve, and he’s been way more efficient in opposition to each lefties (a drop in wOBA from .372 to .264) and righties (from .337 to .279).

In coming to the Dodgers, Flaherty joins a rotation that’s in appreciable flux. Inside the previous week, they’ve DFA’d after which traded Paxton to the Purple Sox, and activated each Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw from the injured listing; the previous had missed 18 days because of decrease again tightness, whereas the latter hadn’t pitched since present process offseason shoulder surgical procedure. Throughout that very same week-long span, rookies Gavin Stone (the employees savior due to his 3.34 ERA and three.82 FIP), Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, and River Ryan have all taken turns, however Knack has already been optioned, and he received’t be the final one. The hope is that in some unspecified time in the future in mid-August or later, Yoshinobu Yamamoto can return from a rotator cuff pressure that’s sidelined him since June 15, and that Bobby Miller and/or Walker Buehler, each of whom had been optioned after post-injury struggles, may help as nicely. In case you’re sensing that the Dodgers have depth for days, you’re proper. Finding out who will begin for them in a postseason sequence is likely one of the principal duties forward for manger Dave Roberts.

All of that pitching made Yarbrough expendable, however since being acquired from the Royals not less than yr’s deadline, the soft-tossing 32-year-old southpaw had served the Dodgers fairly nicely in a multi-inning aid function; this yr, he’s pitched to a 3.74 ERA and 5.15 FIP in 32 appearances totaling 67.1 innings. He’ll be part of a Blue Jays squad that has been stripped for elements prior to now week. The workforce has traded nearly the whole lot in Toronto that wasn’t nailed down, together with starter Yusei Kikuchi, relievers Yimi García, Nate Pearson, and Trevor Richards, catcher Danny Jansen, first baseman/DH Justin Turner, utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Kiermaier.

A four-time Gold Glove winner (and 2015 Platinum Glove winner), Kiermaier is now 34 years outdated and heading into the house stretch of his profession, as he introduced final week that he would retire at season’s finish. He stays an distinctive defender; in simply 549.1 innings in middle area, he’s collected 9 DRS (tied for fourth within the majors, one run behind his now-former teammate Daulton Varsho) and eight FRV (tied for fifth). He’s clearly a greater defender than the Dodgers’ incumbent middle fielder, rookie Andy Pages (-8 DRS, -1.6 UZR, -1 FRV), however the 23-year-old Pages has hit a relatively sturdy .244/.297/.378 (92 wRC+), whereas Kiermaier has not hit a lick. His strikeout price has spiked to a career-high 30.4%, his xSLG has dropped to a Statcast-era low of .277, and his 53 wRC+ (.195/.236/.310) is the seventh lowest amongst gamers with not less than 200 PA. He’ll need to battle for taking part in time in an outfield that would quickly be additional crowded by Tommy Edman, who was acquired from the Cardinals on Monday and who may also play middle as soon as he returns from a rehab task, although he’s extra prone to be deployed within the center infield.

As for the 2 prospects the Dodgers despatched to the Tigers, Liranzo is a 50-FV prospect who ranked fifth on the Dodgers’ up to date listing and 73rd on our up to date High 100 on the time of the commerce, whereas Sweeney is a 40-FV prospect who ranked twenty fourth on the Dodgers listing. Taking part in at Excessive-A Nice Lakes, the place he’s hit .220/.344/.356 (106 wRC+), the switch-hitting Liranzo — a 2021 signing out of the Dominican Republic, with a $30,000 bonus — has cut up his time between catching (44 video games), first base (24 video games), and DH (six video games). His future at catcher is murky, as he’s bought a below-average arm. In Liranzo’s prospect capsule on The Board, Eric Longenhagen had this to say:

When he can really get a throw to the bag off, his Patrick Bailey-style sidearm launch works okay, however he so usually botches or fumbles his trade that he doesn’t give himself an opportunity to get the runner. Liranzo largely makes use of a conventional crouch when receiving and is a below-average framer and ball-blocker. Each these abilities are extra tenable and throughout the vary of massive league viability than his arm, however at Liranzo’s measurement and age, it’s no assure they’ll keep that manner.

Regardless of that modest slash line, Longenhagen is extra sanguine in regards to the 6-foot-3, 195-pound Liranzo’s bat:

There may be big switch-hitting energy right here — Liranzo hit 24 bombs within the Cal League, hit a ball 114 mph, and had a 48% hard-hit price final yr. He can hit for energy from the left aspect even when he isn’t taking his finest swing, and he’s harmful from the best aspect regardless that he makes use of tremendous conservative footwork, producing the whole lot with a shift in his weight and the energy of his fingers. Liranzo doesn’t have nice really feel for the barrel, which is typical for a younger a switch-hitter, not to mention one in every of atypical measurement. His 65% contact price is under the brink of any 2023 massive league first baseman… so there’s substantial Quad-A threat right here if Liranzo can’t catch.

As for Sweeney, he was drafted by the Yankees out of Japanese Illinois College in 2021, because the twentieth total choose, then dealt to the Dodgers in a roster crunch-driven commerce that despatched Jorbit Vivas and Victor González to New York. At Triple-A Oklahoma Metropolis, the 6-foot-3, 212-pound Sweeney has hit .255/.334/.427 with 13 homers and 16 steals; by way of Statcast, he’s produced a 90.6 mph common exit velocity with a 7.7% barrel price and a 44.3% hard-hit price, with so many balls on the bottom (46% price) that all of it interprets to only a .356 xSLG. Sweeney’s finest software is his 55-grade uncooked energy, however his different instruments grade out as 40s, with a possible 45 for his sport energy and 50 for his hit software. In up to date notes he supplied me on Tuesday, right here’s what Longenhagen wrote:

Sweeney appears wonderful at brief. The Dodgers place him such that he barely ever has to make a play to his backhand, and he’s continuously transferring from proper to left towards first base when he throws, which he appears most snug with. He appears like an acceptable match at shortstop regardless of his measurement. On offense, Sweeney’s bat path causes his in-game energy to minimize. His entrance aspect is excessive by means of contact and he tends to chop down on the baseball. He’s going to provide sport energy beneath his uncooked barring some type of swing change. That may restrict his ceiling and sure stop Sweeney from being thought-about a real on a regular basis possibility at brief, however he needs to be a second-division common or good utility man.

For a deadline brief on influence strikes, the Dodgers made what arguably stands as the largest one, not less than from a pitching standpoint. Wholesome and efficient, Flaherty is a large improve on Paxton, and he could be the Dodgers’ second-best starter behind Glasnow heading into October until Kershaw or Yamamoto can summon their pre-injury type. To get him, the workforce parted with two gamers who probably have main league futures, together with one of many few High-100 prospects traded this month in Liranzo. However the Dodgers’ system is especially deep at catcher, with 50-FV prospect Dalton Dashing at Double-A Tulsa and 45-FV prospect Diego Cartaya at Oklahoma Metropolis, and neither of them goes to supplant Will Smith anytime quickly. The Dodgers will hardly miss these guys, significantly if all of it pays off with a championship.