Would you commerce me your sandwich for my bag of chips? What if I threw in a pudding cup? Ought to we swap backpacks? Baseball playing cards? The need to work out exchanges – and to do the comparative evaluation essential to resolve whether or not you’d make a commerce – is common. It’s solely pure that sports activities intensify that feeling: At their core, sports activities are largely about deciding which of two issues is healthier.
Welcome to the 2024 version of our annual Commerce Worth collection. Beginning at the moment and persevering with all week, we’re releasing our checklist of the 50 most respected gamers in baseball, taking participant efficiency, age, and contract under consideration. Dave Cameron, Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and Kevin Goldstein have all headlined this column earlier than; that is my third 12 months doing it by myself.
I say “by myself,” however that solely describes the primary half of the method. To start out, I gathered each doable enter I may consider: age, contract standing, measures of present manufacturing, estimates of future manufacturing, Statcast information, pitch-level modeling — the checklist goes on. I used all of these inputs to give you an preliminary quantitatively outlined rating, then honed that rating by diving into particular person participant comparisons in larger element. With that completed, I acquired suggestions from the FanGraphs workers (particular because of Dan Szymborski for his ZiPS help and to Meg Rowley for being a frequent sounding board) to refine my considering additional.
Subsequent, I reached out to sources on the staff aspect. I forged a wider internet than traditional this 12 months, attempting to get totally different views on participant worth from organizations which have totally different methodological leanings, and occupy totally different locations on the win curve. Make no mistake, although: Regardless of all the assistance that this horde of individuals was form sufficient to supply me, these rankings are my very own.
To that finish, this checklist is my subjective rating of the 50 gamers in baseball who I believe would fetch probably the most if their staff traded them. It’s not a consensus checklist of which gamers are valued most by the trade, although there may be after all appreciable overlap with that standards. There shall be gamers on right here who I’m larger on than consensus and vice versa. I’ll name out the most important disagreements within the particular person writeups. If I’m rating a participant larger than consensus, it definitely doesn’t imply that consensus is flawed, although clearly I suppose it’s.
With that mentioned, I’m attempting to reply this query: Taking the whole lot a few participant under consideration, which gamers would garner the best commerce worth, from any staff, if each staff seen gamers the identical method I do? It’s not the common worth that every staff would assign a participant based mostly on these groups’ particular person aggressive home windows and monetary limitations; simply as with actual trades, with my checklist, there’s a highest bidder, a staff most motivated to amass somebody’s companies, and that’s what I care about. To provide you an instance from at the moment’s honorable mentions, there are quite a lot of groups that couldn’t commerce for Zack Wheeler no matter worth. That doesn’t matter, although, as a result of it solely takes a handful of groups to make a market.
I believe this is a vital distinction. You may think about taking a look at this checklist from the attitude of a small-market staff, or a rebuilding staff, or a staff with an All-Star already entrenched at a given place, and scratching your head on the order. The Orioles wouldn’t commerce for Will Smith (spoiler: he’s on the principle a part of the checklist). The place would he play? The A’s wouldn’t commerce for Tarik Skubal (spoiler: he’s ranked too). He’d be gone earlier than they sniff competition even when they went out and added him tomorrow.
A listing of the mixture desire, averaged throughout all 30 groups, would possibly look totally different. However that’s not how trades work in the true world, and so it’s not how I’m evaluating gamers for this collection. All I care about is the best supply each participant may fetch, as a result of in the long run that’s what determines their worth in commerce. So long as there’s no wage cap and star gamers are briefly provide, the perfect gamers out there carry a commerce premium past what you’d anticipate from some linear type of worth, and I’ve tried to account for that in my rankings.
A word on this particularly: I’m not proud of how I accounted for star gamers on massive contracts final 12 months. I went by the difficulty of explaining all of those concerns, after which I simply shoved each participant who match that invoice into the honorable mentions. It was a cop out, and one I’m not repeating this 12 months. I believe that there are a handful of gamers ok to command an enormous haul in commerce regardless of their sizable contracts. Perhaps there could be an change of cash concerned, however the variety of prospects going the opposite method in such a deal would make up for it. I’ll cowl these circumstances once I rank these gamers.
Yet another word on construction: I’m going to point tiers of gamers this 12 months. Is that simply one other factor to disagree with me about? Perhaps, however I believe it does a greater job of explaining my considering, and drives dwelling the purpose that not each one-spot hole on this checklist means the identical factor. The tiers needs to be pretty self-explanatory, however simply to be secure, a reminder that the primary and final participant in a given tier are nearer to one another in worth than they’re to the closest gamers in neighboring tiers. The tiers shall be demarcated within the desk that seems on the finish of every article within the collection, and I’ll additionally reference them as I break down my fascinated by the primary and final participant in every tier.
As I point out yearly, reducing the checklist off at 50 gamers was an arbitrary determination made way back, nevertheless it’s one I utterly assist. There needs to be some cutoff — simply take a look at what number of honorable mentions there are — and 50 does an excellent job of getting all the perfect gamers on the checklist with out filling it with an excessive amount of fluff on the backside. That mentioned, reducing issues off at 50 implies a bright-line distinction between 50 and 51 that doesn’t mirror actuality. The gamers from 38-60 have been all fairly shut to one another in my estimation. You can make an argument for any of these guys being on the checklist, and belief me, loads of the individuals I talked to made these arguments. A lot of the gamers within the honorable point out part may moderately belong on the again finish of the checklist, the truth is.
For the gamers who appeared on final 12 months’s checklist, you’ll see their 2023 rating in parentheses after their identify. I’ve additionally included a separate part of gamers who made the checklist final 12 months however fell off and aren’t honorable mentions this 12 months. I’m going to carry my weekly chat Friday at 10 AM ET (quite than later this afternoon) in order that I can take your questions on the total checklist.
That’s quite a lot of phrases concerning the course of of creating this checklist, and there shall be loads extra within the feedback accompanying every ranked participant. For now, although, let’s get to the honorable mentions.
Departing the Record, Not an Honorable Point out
Wander Franco (2)
Framber Valdez (22)
Alejandro Kirk (39)
Jordan Walker (43)
Cedric Mullins (44)
Lars Nootbaar (47)
Ke’Bryan Hayes (48)
Josh Jung (49)
Franco is on the restricted checklist following fees of sexual abuse and exploitation of a minor and human trafficking within the Dominican Republic; he appears unlikely to play skilled baseball once more.
Valdez hasn’t been a lot better than league common for the final year-plus, and he’s additionally quickly nearing free company. If he had both extra staff management or extra present juice, he’d nonetheless be on the checklist, however, effectively, he doesn’t.
The remainder of the group boils right down to a bunch of hitters I grouped on the finish of final 12 months’s checklist. First, there are the damage circumstances. Nootbaar has been fairly good when wholesome – 2.7 WAR in 418 plate appearances within the final calendar 12 months – however he’s gathered sufficient accidents that the ground on his worth feels decrease. He was on the checklist final 12 months due to that ground, however now I’m downgrading him to a strong participant who must put collectively a couple of wholesome years in a row. The identical goes for Jung. It’s arduous to worth the staff management when he’s performed so sometimes.
Kirk, Mullins, and Hayes have been all on the checklist due to their mix of defensive excellence and offensive competence (Kirk possibly suits that description much less completely, however defensive metrics love him). In every case, they simply haven’t hit sufficient; none of them has even common offensive manufacturing. Lastly, Walker’s sport has simply collapsed; he was bopping within the majors final 12 months whilst he was held again by his protection, however he’s been 28% beneath common offensively in Triple-A this 12 months.
Damage Ward
Spencer Strider (10)
Shane McClanahan (11)
Sandy Alcantara (17)
Eury Pérez (18)
Matt McLain (28)
Kodai Senga
What a brutal run of accidents. The 4 pitchers headlining this group are among the many highest within the sport and have been the highest 4 pitchers on final 12 months’s checklist. They’ve all had Tommy John surgical procedure since then. Nobody would commerce for them proper now – there’s no assure they’ll return to the sphere at their prior stage of ability, and it’d take them a 12 months or two to regain their incandescent type even when they do get again to that stage. In the event that they return to what they have been earlier than damage, they’ll catapult again up the rankings, however that is about present commerce worth, they usually simply don’t have any till they return to the majors.
McLain is a barely totally different case, as groups are typically extra keen to tackle danger relating to hitters. Ronald Acuña Jr. was on this checklist when he was recovering from an ACL tear in 2021, and he’s on it once more this 12 months regardless of being out for the season. McLain appears to be like like the true deal to me. He mixed wonderful protection and a potent energy bat final 12 months earlier than lacking the final month of the season with an indirect damage. Then he harm his shoulder in spring coaching and wanted a surgical restore, and he nonetheless hasn’t even began a rehab task. There’s simply not sufficient observe document to assist a better valuation. If he returns at roughly the identical stage as his 2023 self, he’ll simply command a spot on subsequent 12 months’s checklist.
Senga is a tier down by way of worth, largely as a result of his contract affords him an opportunity at an decide out after subsequent 12 months if he totals 400 innings from 2023-25. He isn’t a lock to hit that quantity, nevertheless it’s value contemplating. Aside from that wrinkle, he’s an important pitcher when wholesome and will return to the majors quickly, so he definitely belongs on this group.
Luxurious Semi-Leases
Bo Bichette (20)
Zac Gallen (24)
Kyle Tucker (30)
Randy Arozarena (34)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (35)
Dylan Stop (HM)
Ranger Suárez
These seven gamers will all assist your staff, and none of them will break the financial institution. The rationale they didn’t break into the highest 50 comes right down to how lengthy they’ll assist you for. Arozarena will attain free company after the 2026 season, the opposite six after 2025. Staff management isn’t the one consider commerce analysis – give me 1.5 years of Gallen over 5 years of a below-average pitcher on daily basis – however nobody on this checklist fairly had the juice to get previous honorable point out standing.
Gallen, Stop, and Suárez are every having a strong season, however their 2024s have been extra “nice quantity two” than “world-beating ace,” and Gallen has handled a hamstring damage in addition to. Guerrero is within the midst of his finest season since 2021, however he nonetheless hasn’t come near repeating that unbelievable excessive. He appears to be like like an above-average first baseman greater than he does an MVP-contender. Arozarena and Bichette have been fairly poor this 12 months to this point, however every has a protracted sufficient observe document of raking {that a} second-half bounce-back is probably going, although Bichette is now coping with a calf pressure that would hold him out for a couple of weeks.
That simply leaves Tucker, and his state of affairs is the strangest of the group. He was breaking out to the tune of a 174 wRC+ this 12 months, however he’s been sidelined because the starting of June with a shin damage and nonetheless hasn’t began a rehab task. If he had a clear invoice of well being, I believe groups would again up the truck for him, however well being issues right here, and I can’t think about providing an enormous prospect haul in change for a participant who’s gone after 2025 and whose standing for the remainder of the season remains to be in query. Greater than anybody else right here, Tucker’s worth will fluctuate fairly a bit based mostly on studies of his well being.
Extremely-luxury Leases
Juan Soto (29)
Corbin Burnes (HM)
Soto and Burnes will each hit free company in three months, they usually each acquired traded this offseason in consequence. They’re clearly staying put – but when they weren’t, there’d be a feeding frenzy, as a result of they’ve each lived as much as the billing. Burnes is on his strategy to his fifth straight wonderful season, and provided that he’s throwing more durable and lacking extra bats, I’m not nervous concerning the downtick in strikeout price. Soto is doing Juan Soto issues – he’s racked up 8.3 WAR within the final calendar 12 months, and nothing about it appears to be like unsustainable. Both of those guys may credibly be the perfect participant on a World Sequence winner. It could simply should be this 12 months’s World Sequence winner in the event that they have been someway traded, as a result of there’s no extension fairness right here; it’s 2024 parade or bust.
Good Pitchers on Good Contracts
Luis Castillo (32)
Shota Imanaga
Tyler Glasnow
Sonny Grey
All 4 of those pitchers are All-Star caliber arms on cheap contracts. All of them have potential yellow flags – age for Castillo and Grey, lack of observe document for Imanaga, and workload for Glasnow. I believe that every has meaningfully optimistic commerce worth, and if I have been a contending staff with restricted prospect capital, I’d love so as to add any of those choices. I simply don’t suppose you’d get fairly the juice for these 4 that you’d for a few of the pitchers within the 41-50 vary.
The Catcher Vortex
Sean Murphy (12)
Cal Raleigh
Murphy’s sudden fall appears injury-related, however I merely wouldn’t really feel snug buying and selling loads for him when his final calendar 12 months contains 280-ish PA of 76 wRC+ work. It’s an excellent reminder that catchers don’t age predictably. I believe that the worst-case trajectory for Murphy is that he turns right into a high-end backup, but when that state of affairs is even a query, he can’t be greater than an honorable point out.
Raleigh may very moderately have been included on the principle part of the rankings; he acquired squeezed out on the very finish, however ask me a month in the past or six weeks sooner or later, and I’d offer you a special reply. He’s above common in quite a lot of classes, however I’ve all the time been afraid of his offensive profile. He strikes out so usually that he actually must be leaving the yard to make the equation work. I’m way more assured in his protection, and he’s round for one more three years after this.
Infielders With Upside
Ozzie Albies (31)
Jeremy Peña (37)
Oneil Cruz (42)
Spencer Steer (46)
Isaac Paredes (HM)
Andrés Giménez
Brice Turang
Albies has been a mainstay on commerce worth lists for years, and he’s nonetheless an excellent participant, an All-Star when you catch him in an excellent season. He’s on a loopy whole lot even now – $7 million a 12 months by 2027 – however I believe he’s on the decline defensively, so he’s much less of a do-it-all man than he was at peak. I’ve him as a strong contributor as a substitute of a star at this level, and he’s going to be out for many of the remainder of the season because of a damaged wrist, additional dimming his present attraction.
Peña, Giménez, and Turang are all plus defenders at up-the-middle positions, so that they have a pleasant worth ground. I’m not satisfied that any of them will hit, although. Peña’s staff management is ticking down, and Giménez’s contract begins to ramp up in 2025, so he’s much less of a cut price than the opposite two. Turang is the perfect of the bunch for me; he received’t hit free company till after the 2029 season and he’s enjoying at an identical stage proper now.
Steer and Paredes are broadly related; they’re each good hitters who don’t transfer the needle defensively. They have been each on the tail finish of the highest 50 in earlier iterations. I believe Paredes is the higher of the 2, however I’m cognizant of the truth that his sport is custom-built for Tampa Bay’s ballpark, which makes commerce evaluations arduous. In both case, when you’re on the lookout for offense in a can, these are good, younger, controllable choices.
Cruz nonetheless hasn’t put his intensive set of instruments collectively persistently, and at this level his upside might be “superb” as a substitute of “Randy Moss enjoying baseball.” I opted for a bit extra present-day manufacturing on this 12 months’s model of the checklist relative to earlier years’, reflecting my altering understanding of the commerce market and the aggressive panorama, which is why I’ve him in HM land as a substitute of within the 35-45 vary.
I’m Skeptical, However I Might Be Satisfied
Reese Olson (HM)
Evan Carter
Brenton Doyle
Jarren Duran
Royce Lewis
Brent Rooker
Cristopher Sánchez
Duran, Doyle, Olson, Rooker, and Sánchez are all having fun with breakout seasons. In the event that they proceed to supply like they’ve in latest historical past, they’ll be slam dunks for subsequent 12 months’s iteration of the checklist. In every case, although, I haven’t seen it for fairly lengthy sufficient to replace my priors about them. Minor yellow flags – Duran’s energy, Doyle’s plate self-discipline, Olson’s uncooked stuff and now damage, Rooker’s strikeouts, and Sánchez’s sturdiness/consistency – imply I need extra information earlier than I’m satisfied. In the event that they end 2024 enjoying at their present tempo, although, they’ll simply belong within the prime 50 subsequent 12 months.
Lewis was the toughest participant within the majors for me to put; I’ve had him within the prime 50 and out of doors of the highest 100. I’m placing him right here as an acknowledgement that he’s loopy proficient, however let’s be actual: It’s arduous to commerce for somebody who can’t keep on the sphere. Lastly, I simply need to see extra information on Carter. He was a spectacular hitter for about 150 PA (together with the playoffs) final 12 months, a nasty hitter for about 150 PA this 12 months, and is at the moment harm. He may very well be a mainstay in future lists, or extra of an above-average common if 2024 is nearer to his true expertise than 2023.
Mason Miller
Mason Miller (HM)
There’s just one individual on this class, naturally sufficient. Miller’s worth is capped by his damage historical past and his position; peak Edwin Díaz fetched a ton in commerce, however I’m unsure the identical could be true at the moment. This a lot staff management for a pitcher this transcendent is uncommon, and groups will undoubtedly supply Oakland a helpful array of prospects for Miller on the deadline, however I don’t suppose he belongs larger than an honorable point out if he can’t begin, and I doubt a staff that trades for him will take that danger given how a lot time he missed with damage the final time he was within the rotation.
Byron Buxton
Byron Buxton (HM)
Two one-player classes? I couldn’t discover anybody to group with Buxton, who’s enjoying on an incentive-laden contract and in addition didn’t take the sphere for a single sport in 2023. He appears to be like elite in middle area this 12 months, and he’s completely raking, however I’m afraid sufficient of his damage historical past that I don’t suppose he belongs on the principle a part of the checklist. This might make me look fairly foolish in a 12 months, as a result of when Buxton is on, he’s on, however there’s an excessive amount of danger in my eyes.
You Can By no means Have Sufficient Pitching
Hunter Brown (40)
Joe Ryan (45)
Taj Bradley (HM)
Bryce Miller (HM)
Freddy Peralta (HM)
Bryan Woo (HM)
Garrett Crochet
Tanner Houck
I’ll stage with you: these eight match snugly right into a tier with six pitchers on the tail finish of the highest 50. There’s not a ton to distinguish them; it’s all a tradeoff between uncooked stuff, outcomes, staff management, and damage historical past. Would I really feel nice plugging any of those guys in as my unquestioned ace? Definitely not. Would I need them on my staff? Definitely so. I personally like Houck most out of this group, however that was certainly not true for everybody I talked to. I do know I’ve already talked about that there’s little separation on the tail finish of the highest 50, however I’m going to repeat it in particular reference to this group.
Youths
Roman Anthony
Samuel Basallo
Junior Caminero
Colton Cowser
Dylan Crews (HM)
Jackson Jobe
Xavier Isaac
Colt Keith
Heston Kjerstad
Coby Mayo
Joey Ortiz
Noah Schultz
Andrew Painter
Ceddanne Rafaela
AJ Smith-Shawver
As is customary, I requested Eric Longenhagen for a listing of prospects with large upside or who may crack the checklist subsequent 12 months in the event that they proceed at their present tempo. I combined in some latest debuts who didn’t match cleanly into any of the opposite honorable point out teams, too; Keith, Cowser, and Ortiz all appear like they belong within the majors already, however they haven’t actually kicked it into excessive gear but. It’s a slimmer prospect checklist than regular; final 12 months’s primary choose is already within the majors and on the principle a part of the checklist (spoiler), this 12 months’s draft appears to be like fairly skinny on the prime, and plenty of of our preseason prime prospects made the checklist correct. I believe it’s only a cyclical situation, quite than a long-term shift, however this crop feels fairly mild.
I had to attract the road someplace for honorable mentions, however I’ll simply point out yet another group of gamers who acquired consideration: stars on large contracts who didn’t crack the highest 50. Freddie Freeman, Wheeler, Gerrit Cole, Marcus Semien, Trea Turner, Yoshinobu Yamamoto – I believe all of them are fascinating, however only a tick or two behind the group of comparable gamers who seem within the 41-50 part of the checklist. For what it’s value, no. 51 on my checklist would have been Tanner Houck, with Cal Raleigh no. 52.