Prime of the Order: Welcome to the Second Half

Welcome again to Prime of the Order, the place each Tuesday and Friday I’ll be beginning your baseball day with some information, notes, and ideas concerning the sport we love.

It’s amusing that we take into account this morning the beginning of the second half of the Main League Baseball season, contemplating 1,449 video games have been performed, with solely 981 left on the schedule. But, in fact, we all know why that’s the case: The All-Star break affords gamers and coaches a bit breather and gives a simple dividing level within the motion. Apart from, “first uninterrupted phase of the season” is kind of the mouthful.

So, anyway, now that the lopsided first half is over, I figured this could be time to take a high-level view of the place issues stand as we start the second part of the season. Let’s run issues down division by division, first overlaying the Nationwide League from East to West earlier than doing the identical for the American League.

See additionally: Commerce Deadline previews for the Nationwide League and American League.

It isn’t fairly a fait accompli that the Phillies will win the division, however they’re definitely in good condition, and though the Braves will in all probability fall in need of successful their seventh-consecutive NL East title, they’ll nearly undoubtedly make the playoffs once more. The shared purpose for the 2 golf equipment between now and the July 30 commerce deadline is to enhance their rosters as a lot as potential to arrange for a deep playoff run.

The Mets’ odds to make the postseason are near a coin flip, however they’re displaying indicators that they intend to purchase, including depth relievers Phil Maton and Alex Younger to shore up a bullpen that’s struggled whilst they’ve turned their season round. Since their ugly loss to the Dodgers on Could 29, the sport through which Jorge López threw his glove into the stands after he was ejected, the Mets have the most effective document in baseball, at 27-13.

Washington and Miami are out of it and have already begun promoting off gamers; the Nationals lately traded reliever Hunter Harvey to the Royals, whereas the Marlins despatched Luis Arraez to the Padres again in early Could. The Nats aren’t going to blow something up as they give the impression of being to construct round CJ Abrams, James Wooden, and ultimately Dylan Crews, however the Marlins are open for enterprise below new baseball operations head Peter Bendix.

The NL Central is made up of the first-place Brewers and the 4 groups within the glut of the NL Wild Card race.

Whereas the Pirates, Cubs, and Reds don’t have excellent Playoff Odds proper now, that doesn’t essentially imply they are going to be sellers. Each Pittsburgh and Chicago completed the primary half sturdy, with the Pirates sweeping the White Sox to enter the break at .500, and the Cubs successful seven of their final 10. All three golf equipment have sturdy sufficient farm techniques to get controllable gamers who may help them for extra than simply the rest of this season. Just like the Mets, the second-place Cardinals enter the second half with Playoff Odds north of 40% after overcoming a gradual begin to surge within the standings.

This might be essentially the most easy division within the muddled NL… if not for the massive ol’ ¯_(ツ)_/¯ for the Giants. The Dodgers haven’t fairly met expectations this yr, with the harm bug as soon as once more biting them, however the division stays theirs to lose. The Padres and Diamondbacks have related odds to many different NL groups, however not like a number of the squads within the mediocre center, San Diego and Arizona are clearly motivated to reinforce their rosters and push for the playoffs. The Padres are run by A.J. Preller, and the Diamondbacks are the reigning NL champs who’ve lately introduced their document above .500. Each groups are attempting to win, full cease.

However then there’s San Francisco. They Giants have performed very well at instances and have appeared terrible at others. They’ve gotten some out-of-nowhere contributions from gamers like Heliot Ramos, however three of their offseason additions — Jorge Soler, Jung Hoo Lee, and Blake Snell — have underperformed and/or been damage for a lot of the yr. I may completely see all of it clicking over the following 10 days, prompting the Giants to go exhausting on the deadline, simply as simply as I may see all of it falling aside. Certain, that’s true for a lot of different groups, however at the very least inside the NL, San Francisco is likely to be the toughest of all of them to pin down.

As a result of each the Orioles and Yankees went chilly to shut the primary half, neither of the 2 AL heavyweights may achieve a lot floor on the opposite, although New York’s woes started a few week earlier and allowed Baltimore to tug forward within the division. Likelihood is each groups will rebound the remainder of the way in which and improve their rosters earlier than the deadline; this can be a dogfight that’ll in all probability proceed by way of the top of the season.

Don’t overlook concerning the surging Purple Sox, who have been 35-35 and 14 video games out within the AL East getting into their June 15 sport in opposition to the Yankees. Since then, they’ve the most effective document in baseball (18-7), pulled inside 4.5 video games of first place the standings, and cemented themselves as clear deadline patrons behind breakout All-Stars Tanner Houck and Jarren Duran, and face of the franchise Rafael Devers.

The Rays will, as they usually do, straddle the road on the deadline; Phil Maton is already out the door and others may comply with. And maybe no workforce in baseball can influence the commerce deadline greater than the Blue Jays, who certainly will deal at the very least a few of their boatload of leases. However will they take extra drastic measures and commerce Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and/or Bo Bichette? We’ll quickly discover out.

It’s not fairly to the extent of the AL East, however the AL Central is nonetheless shaping as much as be a enjoyable race down the stretch, with the Twins nicely inside hanging distance of the Guardians, which ought to make for an enormous sequence the following time they meet, once they’re set to play 4 video games in three days from August Sept. 11 in Minneapolis. The Royals have slowed down since ending Could at 35-24, however they’re nonetheless within the thick of issues; their latest acquisition of reliever Hunter Harvey could also be simply the beginning of a busy July.

The Tigers and White Sox mirror the Nationals and Marlins, with the previous probably promoting off solely leases like Jack Flaherty, whereas the latter must be keen to commerce anybody and everybody. (Sure I’m conscious of the Tarik Skubal rumors, however I can’t think about a world through which Detroit trades him.) The White Sox might facilitate the 2 largest trades of the deadline if Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. are out the door.

The Astros’ 12-24 begin is firmly within the rearview mirror, as they practically ran down the Mariners earlier than the break. The 2 groups meet in Seattle to open up the second half, although neither membership’s deadline plans are going to alter based mostly on the three-game sequence; they’re each full-go so as to add on the deadline. The Mariners are in dire want of offense whereas the Astros may use some pitching.

The Rangers are in an particularly fascinating spot; it will be stunning to see the reigning champs promote, however they’re working out of time and their Playoff Odds are fairly slim. With a bevy of leases like Kirby Yates, Andrew Heaney, José Leclerc, and Michael Lorenzen on the roster, they might get some good items earlier than the calendar flips to August with out compromising their likelihood of contending in 2025. As Dan Szymborski wrote final week, “Retooling shouldn’t be a grimy phrase for the Texas Rangers.”

The Angels and A’s are about what most of us anticipated they’d be: various levels of unhealthy. The Angels will probably, as they nearly at all times have below present possession, persuade themselves they’ll win subsequent season and transfer solely their pending free brokers. Reliever Carlos Estévez is essentially the most beneficial piece that they could take into account dealing. Oakland, in the meantime, is absolutely open for enterprise. It appears probably that the A’s will commerce slugger Brent Rooker, however will any workforce meet their ridiculously (learn: fairly) excessive asking worth for All-Star nearer Mason Miller?