The 2024 Substitute-Degree Killers: Catcher & Third Base

At this time, we have now a two-fer of Killers lists overlaying a few key defensive positions, particularly the recent nook and behind the plate. Whereas nonetheless specializing in groups that meet the unfastened definition of contenders (a .500 file or Playoff Odds of at the least 9.5%), and which have gotten about 0.6 WAR or much less out of a place so far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — I’ve additionally included our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for a further perspective. That will recommend that a few of these groups will clear the bar by a major margin, besides, I’ve included them right here as a result of their efficiency at that spot so far is price a glance.

Cubs

Following the free agent departure of Willson Contreras, final 12 months the catching corps of Yan Gomes, Tucker Barnhart, and rookie Miguel Amaya ranked twenty first in WAR. Heading into this season, it made at the least some sense on paper to have the 25-year-old Amaya — a former Prime 100 prospect who misplaced vital growth time to the pandemic and November 2021 Tommy John surgical procedure — get extra taking part in time whereas transferring the 37-year-old Gomes, whose framing metrics had declined, right into a backup function. Sadly, each have been horrible. Amaya has hit simply .201/.266/.288 (59 wRC+) with average-ish protection (good blocking, poor throwing) en path to -0.1 WAR. Gomes was even worse each on the plate (.154/.179/.242, 15 wRC+) and behind it (-5 DRS, -4 FRV, -3.9 FRM) earlier than getting launched on June 21, changed by Tomás Nido, who had simply been launched by the Mets. Nido has hit .202/.229/.331 (57 wRC+) general however is simply 4-for-41 as a Cub. Defensively, he’s received a blended bag of metrics, although he’s been a whisker above common framing-wise.

With the Cubs working final within the NL Central at 46-51, they’re extra more likely to be sellers than consumers on the commerce deadline. Even with good catching prospects at Triple-A (Moises Ballesteros, 50 FV) and Double-A (Pablo Aliendo, 40 FV), they might enhance on the place, notably with the bar so low given Amaya’s struggles. In the event that they needed to do one thing quick time period on the speculation that it may assist them get again into the race and provides them an inside observe on upcoming free businesses, the Rockies’ Elias Díaz and the Blue Jays’ Danny Jansen are the highest names available on the market, with Díaz’s backup, Jacob Stallings, having an uncharacteristically robust season that would draw curiosity as properly.

Pirates

After trusting 2021 first choose Henry Davis solely sufficient to let him catch two innings throughout his 62-game rookie season, the Pirates opened the season with him as their beginning catcher, although be truthful, the sudden promotion owed one thing to Yasmani Grandal’a being sidelined by plantar fasciitis. In any occasion, Davis has hit simply .153/.267/.235 (48 wRC+) with a whopping 39.2% strikeout charge. He was optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis in early Might, recalled a month later, and shortly sidelined by a concussion; now he’s again at Indy after recovering. Grandal has really been even much less efficient than Davis on the plate, hitting .178/.207/.295 (36 wRC+) so far. With -0.9 WAR in 917 plate appearances throughout the previous three seasons, the 35-year-old former All-Star could also be cooked.

The excellent news is that the Pirates traded for Joey Bart in early April, and the change of surroundings has served the former inheritor obvious to Buster Posey properly. Although he missed a month as a consequence of a left thumb harm, the 27-year-old Bart — the second choose of the 2018 draft — has performed strong protection whereas hitting .236/.330/.472 (123 wRC+) in 103 PA; his three-run homer on Sunday towards the White Sox helped the Pirates end the primary half with a 48-48 file, their first time at .500 or higher heading into the All-Star break since 2016. It’s nonetheless a small pattern, however with seven begins within the crew’s previous 9 video games, it seems the Pirates could have discovered their new starter. Whether or not or not they’ll get something out of Grandal, or what Davis’ future appears to be like like, are different issues, nevertheless it may make sense to roll with 29-year-old Jason Delay as a backup, as he did job defensively final 12 months and is at present mired in Triple-A.

Rangers

The 2023 season was an enormous one for Jonah Heim. He made his first All-Star crew, gained his first Gold Glove, set profession bests with 18 residence runs, a 103 wRC+, and three.8 WAR, and gained a World Sequence. His follow-up marketing campaign hasn’t gone so properly, as he’s hit simply .241/.290/.354 (80 wRC+), and the place he was excellent defensively final 12 months (10 runs above common in framing, three above in throwing in line with Statcast), he’s regressed to common this 12 months. Whereas his common exit velocity, barrel charge, and hard-hit charge are about nearly as good as final 12 months (if not higher), his groundball charge has elevated from 36.3% to 41.9%, which has value him about 50 factors of anticipated slugging share.

Given Heim’s lack of energy, one has to surprise in regards to the state of his left wrist. He missed 15 days as a consequence of a tendon harm final August and at one level appeared sure for surgical procedure however returned quickly; since then, he’s slugged simply .348 throughout 530 plate appearances, together with the postseason. Fatigue may additionally be an element on condition that Heim has caught extra innings than any catcher in addition to Cal Raleigh and Shea Langeliers over the previous two seasons — and he’d prime each of them if we counted postseasons.

Regardless, backup Andrew Knizner has not often proven he’s greater than replacement-level fodder, totaling -0.7 WAR with a 67 wRC+ throughout 878 PA throughout his profession. If the Rangers are staying within the race, an improve to somebody higher geared up to share the load with Heim — even Stallings if not Jansen or Díaz — may actually assist. And in the event that they’re out, maybe they might give their common a little bit of a breather in hopes that his efficiency rebounds.

Cubs

Christopher Morel’s 18 residence runs put him on tempo to surpass final 12 months’s complete of 26, however nearly all the things else about his recreation has gone backward. He’s hitting simply .202/.303/.387 for a 96 wRC+, down 23 factors from final 12 months, and whereas he’s minimize his strikeout charge from 31.0% to 23.5%, he’s additionally shed 2.5 mph in common exit velocity (from 92.1 mph to 89.6). His .248 xBA and .468 xSLG are fairly just like final 12 months’s numbers, and his .354 xwOBA is a 14-point enchancment, however the place his wOBA exceeded his xwOBA by seven factors in 2023, his precise manufacturing is 51 factors shy of his anticipated mark this season. Possibly it’s simply unhealthy luck, however his excessive pull charge (48.3%) might be an element, notably on condition that he pulls so many balls on the bottom; righties are hitting .210 and slugging .248 on pulled grounders, however Morel is at .164 AVG/.178 SLG. Defensively, he ranks final on the place in each FRV and DRS (-8 in every) and seventh-worst in UZR (-2.4). Yeesh.

Essentially the most available in-house choices, Patrick Knowledge and Nick Madrigal, aren’t too thrilling. Knowledge, who performed 61 video games at third final 12 months and 105 in 2022, has scuffled in a utility function (.196/.279/.391, 89 wRC+) and was shaky with the glove at third final 12 months. In the meantime, there’s nothing within the efficiency of Madrigal, who’s nearing a return from a fractured left hand, that means he can do higher, at the least on the offensive aspect. Essentially the most fascinating different is Matt Shaw, their first-round choose final 12 months out of Maryland, and a 55-FV prospect who was no. 32 on our Prime 100 Prospects listing this spring. He’s already at Double-A Tennessee, the place he’s hitting .247/.352/.416 (127 wRC+) and might be price a glance later within the season, although the query is whether or not he’s prepared defensively.

Dodgers

The Dodgers have been 29-16 when Max Muncy suffered a strained indirect in mid-Might. The 33-year-old slugger wasn’t having a stellar season, however he was hitting .223/.323/.475 (120 wRC+) with 1.1 WAR by 40 video games. His replacements have mixed to “hit” .147/.237/.237 (41 wRC+) in 199 plate appearances and have netted -1.1 WAR, and whereas the crew’s different accidents — Mookie Betts, Jason Heyward, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow are among the many most notable — haven’t helped, that lack of manufacturing at third has contributed to the Dodgers’ 27-25 file since Muncy went down.

Enrique Hernández has began 26 of the crew’s 52 video games in Muncy’s absence and has managed only a 45 wRC+ in 119 PA whereas taking part in third base; in what’s now his third straight 12 months of replacement-level play, general he’s hit .147/.237/.237 (61 wRC+) with -0.1 WAR in 213 PA. Cavan Biggio has began 12 video games at third with a 73 wRC+ in that capability; together with his time with the Blue Jays, he’s hit .193/.316/.280 (81 wRC+) with 0.2 WAR in 179 PA. Chris Taylor has began 10 video games at third with equally unhealthy outcomes there; even with a powerful June, he’s hitting simply .156/.273/.252 (58 wRC+) with -0.5 WAR in 173 PA. Miguel Rojas has gone 2-for-20 in his transient time at third, however he has been a surprisingly robust fill-in for Betts at shortstop. This may benefit persevering with to play Rojas there, with Betts shifting over to second, as soon as the famous person returns from his fractured left hand.

With Muncy shut down from swinging off a tee, he’s unlikely to return till “at the least” August, in line with supervisor Dave Roberts, however within the meantime, the Dodgers desperately have to filter out some useless wooden. The Rockies’ Ryan McMahon would in all probability be the Dodgers’ best choice, however he’s signed by 2027 and could be prohibitively pricey in commerce, notably throughout the division. The Rays’ Isaac Paredes, who’s beneath management by 2027, can be pricey as properly. A league-average hitter who can discipline, such because the Orioles’ Ramón Urías, can be a major improve, a participant who may slide into the Hernández function if and when Muncy returns. Prying him from the Orioles, even with their infield depth, is one other matter.

Yankees

As I famous within the installment on second basemen, the Yankees infield has been hit arduous by accidents. DJ LeMahieu didn’t make his season debut till Might 28 as a consequence of a nondisplaced fracture in his proper foot; since returning, he’s been a shell of his former self, hitting simply .188/.284/.214 with three extra-base hits, all doubles, throughout 135 plate appearances. Jon Berti, acquired from the Marlins to fill in for LeMahieu, has been restricted to 17 video games as a consequence of stints on the IL for groin and calf strains, and he’s but to barrel a single ball. Oswald Peraza suffered a subscapularis pressure in his proper shoulder in March and has struggled mightily at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (.210/.325/.251, 59 wRC+ in 44 video games) since rehabbing. J.D. Davis, acquired from the A’s on June 23, performed simply 5 video games earlier than touchdown on the IL as a consequence of a bout of the flu.

Amid all that, 25-year-old Oswaldo Cabrera leads the crew with 61 video games and 53 begins at third. The versatile switch-hitter gave the Yankees a much-needed increase when he arrived in late 2022, however he’s been overexposed this 12 months, hitting simply .238/.288/.341 (80 wRC+) in 234 PA. Given the Yankees’ lack of productive hitters in addition to Aaron Decide and Juan Soto — Ben Rice is the one non-injured common with a wRC+ of 100 or higher — this can be a spot ripe for improve. Paredes is unlikely to be dealt throughout the division. McMahon can be a greater match who may slot into the crew’s longer-term plans — if the Yankees are satisfied his offensive uptick this 12 months is sustainable.

Pirates

Final 12 months, in his fourth main league season, Ke’Bryan Hayes set profession highs in residence runs (15), wRC+ (101) and WAR (3.2) regardless of taking part in in simply 124 video games. The important thing was higher contact than ever; he shaved greater than seven factors off his groundball charge, to 41.8%, elevated his common launch angle from 5.2 levels to 13.2, and set full-season bests in common exit velocity (92.2 mph) and barrel and hard-hit charges (7.4% and 48.3%, respectively). Alas, in his age-27 season he’s regressed, batting a meager .244/.297/.311 (72 wRC+) with a groundball charge that’s spiked to 51.4%. His common launch angle is again down to five.1 levels, his exit velo to 88.6 mph, and his barrel and hard-hit charges (2.3% and 43.6%, respectively) are profession lows. Because of good protection (7 DRS, 3.7 UZR, 3 FRV), he’s produced 0.6 WAR, however again in Might he landed on the IL for the fourth straight season, and for the third straight it was as a consequence of irritation in his again. Jared Triolo, who’s performed 26 video games at third to Hayes’ 70, has been substitute degree whereas filling in.

The Pirates have Hayes beneath contract although 2029, with a membership choice for ’30. They’ve been mystified and maybe pissed off by his regression. They don’t sound as if they’re wherever near determining the way to repair him, not to mention make a change.