Showdown on the Shed: Previewing the 2024 Dwelling Run Derby

For individuals who benefit from the loudest, easiest, most dopamine-drenched type of baseball, right this moment is a special occasion. It’s Derby day, and even higher, the foolish hats will not be obligatory. The MLB Dwelling Run Derby takes place at 8:00 p.m. ET at Globe Life Subject in Arlington, Texas. What the Costco-coded ballpark lacks in aesthetics it makes up for in bulk. In line with Statcast’s park elements, Globe Life yields extra house runs than the common park each for righties (120) and for lefties (110), so we needs to be in for a present. You’ll be able to watch on ESPN, however in case you’re a nerd – and also you’re studying FanGraphs proper now, so I’m certain you are able to do the maths on this one – you’ll most likely desire the Statcast broadcast over on ESPN 2.

As in any 12 months, there’s a laundry listing of Derby-worthy gamers who received’t be taking part, with Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Decide, and Elly De La Cruz on the high. Nonetheless, this a stable sampling of swatters, and almost each participant figures to have a reputable shot at profitable. Both we’ll have a first-time winner or Pete Alonso will take house his record-tying third title.

The sector options three of the highest six house run hitters in baseball this season — Gunnar Henderson, Marcell Ozuna, and José Ramírez — and two of the sport’s brightest younger shortstops: AL MVP candidates Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr.. It additionally consists of three sluggers who take the Derby rather more significantly than your common participant — Alonso, Henderson, and Teoscar Hernández — and two others who’ve received derbies at decrease ranges: Witt and Alec Bohm. Lastly, there’s Adolis García, an electrifying slugger whose historic energy show throughout the Rangers’ World Sequence run final season is certain to maintain the gang at full throat. Within the sections beneath, I’ll break down all the brand new guidelines and I’ll attempt to make a case for why every candidate has a shot on the crown.

Rule Modifications

Lately, the whole Derby has taken the type of a single-elimination event, with the eight contributors seeded primarily based on their common season house run totals. This 12 months, the primary spherical can be large open. All eight gamers will hit as many house runs as they’ll, and the 4 gamers with the very best totals will advance right into a four-person bracket. They’ll be seeded primarily based on these totals, with the space of their longest house run serving as a tiebreaker.

On the one hand, it will possible make the competitors a bit of bit extra truthful. Final 12 months, Adley Rutschman hit 27 house runs within the first spherical. That was the third-highest whole of the spherical, however he failed to maneuver on as a result of he had the dangerous luck to be dealing with off towards Luis Robert Jr., who hit 28. However, this alteration makes the Derby rather more of an endurance contest. Swinging for the fences repeatedly is tiring work. In earlier years, in case you had been batting second, all you wanted to do was homer as soon as greater than your opponent, after which you might save your energy for the later rounds. That possibility is now gone. Everybody must max out their first-round whole, so we should always most likely count on some sweaty, sluggish sluggers by the point we get to the ultimate. Conditioning can be key.

In case your favourite factor concerning the Dwelling Run Derby is the byzantine guidelines, you’re in for a deal with as a result of we’re simply getting began. This 12 months, the timing of every spherical stays the identical: Batters get three minutes within the first two rounds and two minutes within the closing spherical, with one 45-second timeout per spherical. Nevertheless, you may recall that in earlier years, the system required the pitcher to attend till the final ball had landed earlier than pitching, not less than in idea. In observe, some pitchers flouted that rule, and because of this, their hitters noticed far more pitches than did their opponents. In an effort to curb that observe (which whereas undeniably unfair was additionally extraordinarily enjoyable), the principles now embody a most variety of pitches per spherical: 40 within the first two rounds and 27 within the closing spherical, which works out to 4.5 seconds per pitch. In the event you run out of pitches, then the spherical is over, even when there’s nonetheless time on the clock. Consider, that’s a most variety of pitches, not swings. That might make the command of the pitcher, already an enormous issue, much more necessary. Lately, if batters didn’t like a pitch, they may take it and their pitcher would hearth one other one straight away. There wasn’t a lot of a time penalty, as a result of they didn’t have to attend for the earlier pitch to land. On this new format, if the pitcher misses their batter’s nitro zone, it makes loads much less sense for the batter to take the pitch and await the subsequent one, as a result of they solely get so many treasured balls.

The bonus system has additionally modified utterly. This 12 months, every participant concludes every spherical with an untimed bonus spherical wherein they’ll hit till they file three outs. In the event that they hit a ball not less than 425 toes throughout the bonus, then they earn a fourth out. In different phrases, batters may get locked in and launch a bunch of homers in a row throughout the bonus and pile onto their totals for the spherical, and due to the additional out, those that hit one particularly lengthy blast throughout the bonus would have a fair better benefit.

If there’s a tie within the head-to-head rounds after the bonus, then each gamers get a 60-second swing-off with no extra bonuses or timeouts. In the event that they’re nonetheless tied after the swing-off, then they every get one other swing-off that consists of simply three swings. If it’s nonetheless tied after that, they do the entire three-swing enterprise once more till there’s a winner or till the solar swallows the earth, whichever occurs first.

OK, that’s it. These are all the guidelines, I swear. Let’s transfer on to the contributors. Though the gamers are now not seeded, we’ll nonetheless focus on them within the order of their house run totals.

Gunnar Henderson

Henderson turned 23 on June 29, so he has the prospect to turn out to be the youngest champion in Derby historical past. As a second-year participant who received’t be eligible for arbitration till 2026, the million-dollar prize for first place would greater than double his wage, and the $750,000 runner-up prize would very almost double it as nicely. Primarily based on his efficiency this season, he additionally has a powerful case as the favourite. His 28 homers rank third in baseball behind Decide and Ohtani, and his 56.7% hard-hit charge ranks fourth amongst certified gamers behind these two and Juan Soto. Henderson additionally leads the Derby contributors with a median bat velocity of 75.8 mph (which can also be good for ninth in all of baseball). Not that it’s notably related to the Derby, however Henderson is second within the majors with 6.1 WAR, only a hair behind Decide (6.3).

Henderson can also be actually invested within the Derby. On Thursday, he held a legit observe session at Oriole Park, timed by teammate Colton Cowser and pitched by his Derby pitcher, Norfolk Tides supervisor Buck Britton. “I’ve hit his BP nicely,” Henderson informed reporters when requested why he selected Britton to pitch to him. “He throws good BP and it’s a fairly straightforward movement.” Nevertheless, Britton famous a possible concern with Henderson’s method. “Hopefully these balls simply recover from the wall,” mentioned Britton. “He hits the ball so exhausting, however he hits it at actually low angles, so simply getting the ball within the air” can be key. Henderson is fourth in baseball with 112 blasts, however simply 31 of these blasts have come on fly balls, which sends him all the way down to twelfth place and third amongst Derby contributors, behind Ozuna (43) and Hernández (32). When Henderson does put the ball within the air, he’s golden. His 31.1% HR/FB charge is the very best in baseball. However earlier than you get too involved about Henderson’s launch angle, look no additional than the final two winners. Henderson’s 46.9% groundball charge is decrease than the 48.2% charge that Soto ran within the first half of 2022, the 12 months he received the Derby, and the 49.8% charge that reigning champ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put up within the first half of final season.

Marcell Ozuna

There’s no getting round this: Ozuna was a horrible option to symbolize Main League Baseball in such a celebratory occasion. In 2021, he was arrested for a home violence incident, a part of which was captured on physique cam footage. The expenses had been dropped when Ozuna agreed to take part in a pretrial diversion program. He was additionally arrested for driving beneath the affect in 2022 and pleaded no contest in 2023. It’s not as if there’s any standards for the Derby that pressured MLB to place Ozuna entrance and heart; his All-Star choice serves as its personal acknowledgement of the very sturdy season he’s having. So inviting him to take part within the Derby, the league’s most fan-oriented and family-friendly evening of the 12 months, is an lively alternative, one which sends a really clear message concerning the league’s values. Ozuna has hit 26 house runs this season.

José Ramírez

For the reason that begin of the 2016 season, Ramírez has put up 46.5 WAR, fifth in baseball. However don’t let the truth that he’s one of many recreation’s best all-around gamers obscure his energy. For the reason that begin of the 2017 season, Ramírez has hit 220 house runs, sixth most in baseball. Additionally, don’t sleep on Ramírez tonight simply primarily based on how he carried out in his first Derby look, in 2022, when he batted right-handed due to a significant thumb damage that utterly sapped his energy. This 12 months, he’s anticipated to bat left-handed, and the facility is again. This season he’s tied for sixth in baseball with 23 house runs. Ramírez’s common homer this season travels 388 toes, the shortest distance among the many group, however that shouldn’t essentially be held towards him. It’s a results of his concentrate on pulling balls on the air, a superb recipe for fulfillment and one thing he does extra often than another participant. Likewise, though Ramírez has the bottom Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity of the group, at 103.9 mph, he can dial issues up when he needs to. His hardest-hit ball of the 12 months was 116.6 mph, which trails solely Witt among the many group and ranks twelfth in all of baseball.

The attention-grabbing factor is that it’d truly make extra sense for Ramírez to bat right-handed tonight, and never simply because righties have a better time leaving the yard at Globe Life. Over the course of his profession, 69% of his homers have come from the left aspect, however that’s largely as a result of he faces far more righty pitchers than lefties, that means he bats left-handed way more often than he does righty. His energy output on a charge foundation is about the identical from each side; throughout his profession, he’s homered in 4.1% of his plate appearances when he bats left-handed in addition to when he hits righty, and both sides’s HR/FB ratio is almost similar, too. That mentioned, he positively has the potential for extra energy from the precise aspect. His exit velocity, barrel charge, and hard-hit charge are decrease from the left aspect this season and over the course of his profession. With the introduction of bat monitoring knowledge, I can let you know that this season, his bat velocity averages 74.2 mph from the precise aspect, almost 4 mph sooner than his 70.3 mark from the left aspect. In line with Mike Petriello, who can be calling the Derby on ESPN 2 tonight, “on balls hit within the air, each 1 mph of bat velocity earns you roughly six extra toes of distance.” That’s a distinction of almost 24 toes.

Teoscar Hernández

Contemplating he has by no means completed a season with greater than 32 house runs — in 2021, his solely 30-homer marketing campaign — Hernández is perhaps straightforward to miss, however he’s a powerful darkish horse candidate. The 31-year-old has been one of many recreation’s most constant energy hitters ever since he grew to become a big-league common in 2018. If we ignore the 2020 season, when Hernández managed 16 homers in simply 50 video games, then he’s hit not less than 25 homers in every of the final 4 seasons, and not less than 20 in every of the final 5. He might not lead this 12 months’s eight contributors in anybody class, however since 2018, he’s by no means as soon as completed a season beneath the eightieth percentile in barrel charge, common exit velocity, or max exit velocity.

Maybe much more necessary than his credentials is the truth that Hernández actually needs to win. He overtly campaigned to be included, and as soon as he was chosen, he sought recommendation from Guerrero Jr., a two-time Derby contestant who received final 12 months’s event, and Ohtani, his Dodgers teammate who participated within the 2021 Derby. The 2 warned him concerning the impact that fatigue can play, and Hernández has mentioned that he’ll concentrate on lifting the ball slightly than tiring himself out with max-effort hacks. “I believe I’ve a bit of little bit of a bonus as a result of I swing loads,” Hernández mentioned. “I take a number of swings on daily basis. My physique is used to going swing, swing, swing with out getting relaxation.”

Hernández has held two timed observe periods together with his Derby pitcher, Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel, whose son Brady simply participated within the Excessive Faculty Dwelling Run Derby this weekend. Anybody who’s watched the Derby recurrently is aware of that the pitcher makes an enormous distinction, and in Ebel, Hernández might need one thing of a secret weapon. This can be his fourth Derby pitching look on the big-league degree, and he additionally pitched in two minor league derbies. He helped Vladimir Guerrero win the 2007 Derby, then pitched to Albert Pujols in 2015 and Joc Pederson in 2019.

Pete Alonso

Alonso has been in a funk recently; he has simply two house runs this month, and over his final 12 video games, he’s batting .196 with no extra-base hits and a 41 wRC+. However don’t child your self: Alonso is a prolific house run hitter. For the reason that begin of the 2019 season, when he was named NL Rookie of the Yr after main the majors with 53 homers, Alonso has clobbered 211 house runs, essentially the most in all of baseball. He’s performed in solely 4 full seasons, and he’s already one among simply 48 gamers in main league historical past with not less than three seasons of 40 or extra homers. The 6-foot-3, 245-pound Polar Bear can also be proficient at crushing Derby dingers. He received back-to-back titles in 2019 and 2021 and has participated in each subsequent Derby. A 3rd victory would tie Ken Griffey Jr. for the file, although he’ll want to seem in three extra after this one if he needs to tie Junior’s file of eight appearances. Alonso has requested former Mets bench coach Dave Jauss, who pitched to him in 2021 and 2022, to return again and pitch once more after final 12 months’s first-round exit.

This season, Alonso’s common exit velocity has fallen all the way in which all the way down to the thirty fifth percentile, however he can nonetheless bash the ball when he will get maintain of it. His most exit velocity has by no means dropped beneath the 97th percentile, and his 75.1-mph bat velocity is second solely to Henderson amongst Derby contributors. Crucially, Alonso doesn’t must raise the ball to hit it out. This season, 9.4% of his line drives have left the ballpark. That ranks second amongst all gamers who’ve hit not less than 25 line drives, and it’s greater than twice the speed of six of his seven Derby opponents. Alonso additionally boasts the hardest-hit house run of all eight contributors, a 115.3-mph blast on Could 16.

Adolis García

García is likely one of the most fun gamers in baseball, however he’s at the moment sitting on -0.1 WAR for the season. However even in a replacement-level 12 months, his energy numbers are nonetheless formidable. His hard-hit charge, barrel charge, common exit velocity, and Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity, whereas down from final 12 months, nonetheless rank within the 83th percentile or greater. Furthermore, García clearly nonetheless has top-level energy, as he hit the toughest ball of his complete profession, a scorching 116.1-mph line drive double, again in Could.

For just a few causes, García needs to be a favourite. First, he’s obtained Derby expertise. Though he crashed out of final 12 months’s first spherical with 17 homers, the second-lowest whole of all eight contributors, he was pacing for a fantastic spherical till he fell right into a funk and he hit simply two house runs over the ultimate minute. The subsequent issue can’t be overstated: García excels beneath the brilliant lights. He launched 39 house runs final season, after which added eight extra within the playoffs, together with a five-game homer streak that stretched from the ALCS to the World Sequence. In entrance of a house crowd that’s sure to be going loopy for him, García can be giving it his all, and his all is an entire lot. In the event you watched the Fall Basic, you already know that when García needs to hit one out of the ballpark, he’s obtained simply concerning the fiercest house run hack within the recreation. Regardless of how he fares, García is certain to placed on a present.

Bobby Witt Jr.

This can be Bobby Witt Jr.’s first MLB Dwelling Run Derby, but it surely’s not precisely his first rodeo. In 2018, Witt received the Excessive Faculty Dwelling Run Derby at Nationals Park, out-dueling Rece Hinds – sure, the identical Rece Hinds who has completed nothing however crush monster house runs throughout his first week as a giant leaguer – within the closing spherical. In a contest just like the Derby, it is smart to have a look at how gamers do once they’re served up pitches proper down the center, and each Witt’s 71.7% hard-hit charge and 99.6-mph exit velocity on these meatballs lead the eight contributors by far.

Witt’s Statcast sliders are pink sufficient to make a vampire salivate, and he tops all contributors in barrels and Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity. This season, his common house run has traveled 418 toes. Nobody else within the Derby has a median above 410. Witt can also be the one participant to hit a homer greater than 450 toes this season, and he did it twice. In brief, there’s nobody within the Derby who can hit the ball more durable than Witt.

Don’t let Witt’s placement this far down on the listing idiot you. Though his 16 homers are the second-lowest whole amongst contributors, Statcast credit him with 21.2 anticipated homers, fourth most. That hole of 5.2 homers is the biggest in baseball. Not solely is Witt the sort of all-around athlete you shouldn’t guess towards in any sort of abilities competitors, he’s additionally coming into the Derby with a full head of steam. Over the previous two weeks, he’s batting .409 with 4 homers and a 215 wRC+.

Alec Bohm

Bohm is the apparent underdog. With a 130 wRC+, the 27-year-old is having a breakout season. However whilst he’s added a tick of exit velocity and almost 4 share factors to his hard-hit charge, he’s hardly a house run hitter. His 11 lengthy balls put him in a 16-way tie for the 89th-highest whole in baseball, and he’s the one Derby participant who just isn’t on tempo to succeed in the 20-homer threshold. Bohm has hit only one ball lengthy sufficient to earn a bonus this season, a 427-foot shot on June 30. Nevertheless, earlier than you conclude that Bohm doesn’t have a snowball’s likelihood in Arlington to win this factor, remember that not one of the final three Derby winners was seeded higher than fourth.

Additionally, Bohm has received a derby earlier than. In 2016, he received the derby of the Coastal Plain League, a wood-bat collegiate summer season league. Scott Wingo, who coached Bohm’s Wilmington Sharks and pitched to him in that derby, will pitch to him once more tonight. It’s additionally attainable that Bohm may benefit from the brand new guidelines. In a Derby the place taking a pitch comes with a better penalty, the flexibility to drive something you see may matter extra. Consistency has at all times been an underrated a part of success within the Derby, and no participant comes near squaring up the ball as typically as does Bohm. On a per-swing foundation, he ranks seventh amongst all certified gamers in hard-hit charge, ninth in squared-up charge, and eleventh in blast charge. If he can get in a groove, he may have an opportunity.

Who’s Going to Win

In the event you’ve learn Jay Jaffe’s previews in earlier years, you already know that Jay closes with a prediction. Much more annoyingly for me, he’s very often proper. Jay predicted Bryce Harper’s 2018 win, Alonso’s in 2019, and Vladito’s simply final 12 months. I can’t promise Jay’s degree of accuracy, and I genuinely imagine that the sector is large open, however my intestine tells me to go together with Bobby Witt Jr. I say that not simply because he’s able to placing on a present when he’s locked in, however as a result of he’s such a bodily marvel that even when he’s not locked in, he’s obtained sufficient energy to push him by. I now look ahead to watching Witt flame out within the first spherical.