Welcome again to High of the Order, the place each Tuesday and Friday I’ll be beginning your baseball day with some information, notes, and ideas in regards to the sport we love.
Profitable streaks don’t sometimes change the course of a workforce’s season. For instance, the Dodgers are in all probability going to complete first within the NL West regardless of what number of video games they win over the subsequent week or so. The identical could be true for the White Sox, simply in reverse; they may rip off 10 straight wins and their outlook nonetheless could be about as bleak because it will get. And but, in profitable seven video games in a row, the Astros have utterly altered their trajectory for the remainder of the season.
By the way, the final Astros loss got here in opposition to those self same abysmal White Sox on June 18, when Chicago rookie Jonathan Cannon was one out away from finishing an eventual 2-0 shutout. After that sport, Houston’s playoff odds fell to 29.3%, its nadir for the season. Since then, the Astros have received seven straight to drag inside 3.5 video games of the ultimate AL Wild Card, and their odds to make the postseason are again above 50% for the primary time since Could 26. Now, getting into this weekend’s collection in opposition to the also-surging Mets at Citi Subject, the Astros are simply 4.5 video games out of first place within the AL West.
It wouldn’t have been in the least unreasonable to counsel previous to the profitable streak that the Astros should be sellers on the deadline. Kyle Tucker had simply been positioned on the IL with a shin contusion that’s anticipated to maintain him out of the lineup till July. Cristian Javier and José Urquidy had simply undergone Tommy John surgical procedure, ending their seasons and making them non-factors for at the very least the primary half of 2025. Houston had additionally simply launched veteran first baseman José Abreu, electing to eat the rest of his disastrous contract that runs by means of subsequent season reasonably than roster him any longer. This was a workforce that merely regarded useless within the water, ravaged by accidents and underperformance and unable to get issues going. Oh, how per week adjustments issues.
No Kyle Tucker? No drawback. All however 4 of the 14 batters the Astros have despatched to the plate in the course of the streak have posted a wRC+ above 100, with the quartet of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Jeremy Peña lastly clicking on the identical time. Impressively, the offense has caught fireplace regardless of homering simply six occasions within the seven-game stretch; as an alternative, Houston’s 20 doubles have saved the road shifting.
Along with the aforementioned Javier and Urquidy, the Astros even have been with out Justin Verlander throughout this stretch, after they positioned him on the IL with neck discomfort the day earlier than their profitable streak started. As a substitute, they’ve been compelled to lean on a gaggle of principally unheralded pitchers, and boy have these arms delivered. Hunter Brown has turned his season round by revamping his pitch combine (Robert Orr and Ben Zeidman have a nice look at it over at Baseball Prospectus), and Spencer Arrighetti simply had the perfect begin of his younger profession; he allowed three hits and no walks whereas putting out 10 throughout seven scoreless innings in Wednesday night time’s 7-1 win over the Rockies. Ronel Blanco — Houston’s solely pitcher who’s survived the damage bug this yr — simply retains rolling proper alongside and appears to be in prime place to make the All-Star workforce in his first full season, at age 30!
Now that the Astros are firmly on the purchase aspect forward of the deadline, barring one thing catastrophic to negate their profitable streak over the course of the subsequent month, how will they strategy issues?
Even with Javier, Urquidy, and J.P. France all out for the yr, the Astros have rotation assistance on the best way. Verlander and Luis García are anticipated again quickly, with Lance McCullers Jr. not far behind and rookie Jake Bloss capable of assist out as soon as he too is off the injured record. Verlander, Valdez, Blanco, McCullers Jr., and García would make for a robust playoff rotation (particularly as a result of Arrighetti, Bloss, and Brown can be in reserve). However, understanding that they’ve received different positions of problem, specifically first base, why not purchase two Birds with one commerce? Sure, I’m saying they need to commerce with the Blue Jays.
Toronto is on the opposite aspect of the coin, with its playoff odds down to five.1% getting into Thursday’s drubbing of the Yankees. Maybe no workforce this season has been as disappointing because the Jays, whose greatest plan of action seems like promoting and rebuilding for the long run.
Ideally, the Astros would reap the benefits of Toronto’s surprising woes by buying and selling for first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who’s underneath membership management by means of the top of subsequent season, whereas additionally including a beginning pitcher, although it’s unclear how keen the Blue Jays could be to deal Guerrero. Heck, his commerce worth alone feels extraordinarily unclear: He’s having an excellent yr (133 wRC+) however nonetheless has infuriating batted ball tendencies, with a grounder fee above 50% and simply 10 house runs. Groups will certainly line as much as purchase Guerrero if he had been made accessible within the hopes that they will optimize his contact. The Astros particularly could be drawn in by the considered Vladito taking intention on the Crawford Containers, thus giving them their greatest energy risk at first base since Yuli Gurriel clubbed 31 homers in 2019 with the assistance of the juiced ball.
If we presuppose that the Blue Jays are, in truth, keen to commerce Guerrero and retool for 2026 and past, understanding he might earn near $30 million subsequent season in his last yr of arbitration, the most important hangup could be agreeing on a worth that the Astros could be snug paying, particularly contemplating the state of their farm system. Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice described their farm as “under common on impression and a median one by way of depth.” However when you think about the uncertainty surrounding Toronto’s high two prospects — Ricky Tiedemann, who hasn’t been capable of keep on the sphere constantly, and Orelvis Martinez, who was simply suspended 80 video games for PED utilization, halting his improvement — intriguing, higher-floor prospects simply may be what the Jays are looking for. Among the many gamers that Houston might supply are Bloss, Jacob Melton, and Joey Loperfido, who could be left and not using a spot if the Astros had been so as to add Guerrero.
It’d be legitimate for the Astros to balk at that worth, however what in the event that they took on a steady-if-unspectacular starter like Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, or José Berríos together with Guerrero to tamp down the prospect value? All three pitchers are good, but additionally on the improper aspect of 30. If the Jays are going the trail of retooling anyway, it might behoove them to take away a extremely paid starter from their payroll as a result of he in all probability received’t be round to make an impression on the subsequent good Toronto workforce anyway. Positive, including one in every of these starters would doubtless push Houston’s payroll to unexpected heights, however the Astros needs to be sport to tackle such a contract if it means getting one other stable starter with out giving up as a lot in prospect worth.
The Astros are having a bizarre season and will have a bizarre future as they transfer away from the risk-averse entrance workplaces of Jeff Luhnow and James Click on. So they could as nicely lean totally into it and take some dangerous photographs that would reap them main rewards.