Welcome again to Prime of the Order, the place each Tuesday and Friday I’ll be beginning your baseball day with some information, notes, and ideas concerning the sport we love.
The Mariners are within the driver’s seat within the AL West, with a 5.5-game lead over the Astros, and an 80% probability of constructing it again to the playoffs after narrowly falling quick final season. And contemplating that they simply performed their 81st sport final evening, a tricky 4-3 loss to the Rays through which they led 3-1 getting into the eighth, now looks as if a superb time to judge what strikes president of baseball operations — and infamous dealer — Jerry Dipoto ought to make between now and the July 30 commerce deadline.
Seattle’s success has been pushed by its pitching, particularly its beginning 5. Solely the Phillies, Yankees, and Orioles have gotten decrease ERAs out of their rotation, and after play concluded on Sunday, Mariners starters had pitched 23 extra innings than Yankees starters in the identical variety of video games. The M’s arguably have three aces in Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert; their fourth and fifth starters, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, aren’t too shabby both. Woo’s innings will in all probability must be managed fastidiously down the stretch after he started the season on the IL as a result of forearm points, which even have brought about him to go away a number of begins early. He was eliminated within the fourth inning of Monday’s sport with proper hamstring tightness, although it’s unclear but how a lot time, if any, he’ll miss. Both means, the Mariners can face up to a restricted or absent Woo due to what number of innings the entrance three are in a position to cowl.
Their relievers are typically doing their jobs as properly, with the group rating thirteenth in bullpen ERA getting into Monday, and co-closers Andrés Muñoz and Ryne Stanek have performed a strong job ending off video games. The depth of the bullpen was imagined to be a power getting into the season, however with Matt Brash and Jackson Kowar out for the season and Gregory Santos but to throw a pitch this 12 months, the Mariners are a little bit skinny within the center innings. Nonetheless, Santos is anticipated to start out a rehab task quickly, and the lower-level bullpen points should be straightforward to deal with with minor strikes between now and the commerce deadline.
Seattle’s tepid offense, then again, gained’t be such a easy repair. Its 97 wRC+ ranked seventeenth getting into this week, and the blokes who have been imagined to be carrying the lineup (Julio Rodríguez, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, and offseason additions Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco) have all been under common over the primary half of the season. Sturdy contributions from Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone, Dylan Moore, and Josh Rojas — together with a resurgence from Ty France — have saved the offense from being much more disappointing, however this lineup nonetheless isn’t ok for the Mariners to make a deep playoff run.
Raleigh is the one Mariners participant with not less than 10 residence runs on the midway level of the season; he’s pacing for 26 homers, 4 fewer than final 12 months. Rodríguez’s energy can be down this season. He’s launched simply seven residence runs after placing up his first 30-homer marketing campaign final 12 months. It’s price noting that Rodríguez struggled by means of the primary half of 2023 as properly. At this level final 12 months, he had 13 residence runs and a 104 wRC+ earlier than exploding for 19 dingers and a 145 wRC+ the remainder of the way in which, so the Mariners must be assured that the 23-year-old phenom will flip issues round. Nonetheless, even with Julio at his greatest, Seattle wants extra offense.
There’ll, as at all times, be rental bats out there. Guys like Tommy Pham or Josh Bell (particularly if he’s on considered one of his yearly sizzling streaks) would definitely assist the Mariners add depth and lengthen their lineup, however they want a game-changer, somebody to make pitchers sweat, and no one like that exists on the rental market until the Mets are prepared to commerce Pete Alonso. So Dipoto may need to go huge, even when he has to surrender Miller or Woo or a prime prospect like Harry Ford or Cole Younger in such a transfer. Listed here are a number of the gamers the Mariners ought to goal in a commerce:
Dangerous Rooker
Brent Rooker is nice at one factor: hitting the crap out of the ball. He’s greatest suited because the DH as an alternative of taking part in the outfield. He additionally walks at a strong clip and strikes out a ton. However when he does join, few hitters within the league make extra optimum contact. Rooker is above the ninetieth percentile for xSLG, barrel fee, hard-hit fee, and sweet-spot share (he’s higher than Luis Arraez there!), serving to him pop 43 homers because the begin of 2023 after being claimed off waivers by the A’s within the 2022-23 offseason. Most significantly, his energy performs wherever: He’s bought 13 residence runs this 12 months, and he’d even have a pair extra if all of his batted balls have been in Seattle, per Statcast.
The factor about Rooker is he’s streaky. Final 12 months, he had a bonkers 232 wRC+ in March/April after which posted month-to-month marks, so as, of 77, 74, 144, 94, and 159 the remainder of the way in which. This season has been the same story. He had a 122 wRC+ over the primary month and a 185 mark in Could, however he’s all the way down to 84 in June. Nonetheless, even a streaky Rooker would profit the Mariners, particularly as a result of he’s beneath membership management by means of the 2027 season.
Buying and selling With A Acquainted Workforce
The Rays are by no means ones to shrink back from buying and selling off their huge league roster, even after they’re in competition for a playoff spot. And so they’re definitely by no means ones to shrink back from buying and selling with the Mariners, with final offseason’s José Caballero-for-Luke Raley deal the newest instance in an extended line of swaps between the 2 groups.
Whereas the Mariners have been in Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes final offseason, I’d argue that buying him wouldn’t work out properly. Paredes has made a reputation for himself along with his signature pull-side energy, however that method wouldn’t be as useful if he have been taking part in his residence video games in Seattle. In response to Statcast, solely six of Parades’ 11 residence runs this season would’ve been gone at T-Cellular Park, which has extraordinarily hitter-unfriendly park elements; this 12 months, the atmosphere is decreasing batted ball distance by a mean of six ft, not good for a hitter like Paredes who depends on optimum horizontal spray angle.
Randy Arozarena has struggled mightily this season, and Brandon Lowe is just too injury-prone to be relied upon as a real lineup-lengthener. However how about Josh Lowe? He’s missed a while this 12 months as a result of accidents, however he’s mashed when wholesome and boasts plus energy and pace. Like Rooker, Lowe is controllable; he isn’t set to achieve free company till the after the 2028 season. For that reason, the Rays would ask for lots in return. However Lowe could be a superb match for the Mariners, basically the lite, left-handed model of our subsequent and last commerce risk.
The White (Sox) Whale
Accidents are at all times going to be on the forefront of any dialogue about dynamic White Sox middle fielder Luis Robert Jr. Most not too long ago, he missed 55 of Chicago’s first 79 video games this season after re-injuring the identical hip that restricted him to 68 video games in 2021. However what he did final 12 months, in his first and solely full season, ought to make groups seeking to improve their lineup drool at the opportunity of buying him. Robert has 40-homer energy and the pace to swipe 20 bases. He’s additionally a superb defensive middle fielder with a powerful throwing arm, instruments that ought to make him an elite proper fielder — the place he’d virtually definitely slide as a result of Seattle already has Rodríguez in middle.
Robert will not be with out his flaws; along with his damage historical past, he strikes out a ton and doesn’t actually take walks. However he would clearly be the second-best place participant on the Mariners and the game-changing drive they most desperately want. And whereas he’d price a king’s ransom that may decimate the Seattle farm system, that is the kind of transfer that matches the Mariners completely. They’d get a participant whose uncooked expertise equals that of Rodríguez and one who’s beneath membership management by means of 2027, courtesy of two $20 million membership choices that they’d absolutely choose up.
Will the White Sox transfer him? There doesn’t appear to be anybody untouchable on Chicago’s roster, however basic supervisor Chris Getz has each proper to ask for the moon. Are the Mariners prepared to fork it over to get one other star? They need to be.