The Astros Lastly Launch José Abreu

After a yr of caressing hopes for a triumphant return of José Abreu’s salad days, the Astros launched the veteran first baseman on Friday, ending his disappointing tenure in Houston. It might be an understatement to say the 37-year-old Abreu struggled this season; throughout 35 video games, he batted .124/.167/.195 with two residence runs, for an wRC+ of two and a WAR that I received’t repeat attributable to the opportunity of youngsters studying. The Astros nonetheless owe Abreu a hair beneath $31 million of the three-year deal he signed quickly after the 2022 season, although they’ll be on the hook for barely lower than that if one other group indicators him for the pro-rated league minimal.

If David Ortiz’s magnificent remaining season represents the optimum situation for a beloved veteran slugger to achieve retirement, then Abreu’s time with the Astros exemplifies the opposite far finish of the spectrum. Throughout his 9 years with the White Sox, from 2014-22, Abreu was one of the constant sluggers in baseball, batting .292/.354/.506 with 243 residence runs, a 133 wRC+, and 28.3 WAR. He had 5 30-homer seasons, and that doesn’t embody the shortened 2020 marketing campaign, when he smacked 19 longballs, a full-season tempo of 51, en path to successful the AL MVP award. With Chicago, he additionally earned AL Rookie of the Yr honors (2014), made three All-Star groups (’14, ’18, ’19), and received three Silver Sluggers (’14, ’18, ’20). When he turned a free agent after his age-35 season and the White Sox didn’t present a lot curiosity in bringing him again, Abreu rapidly signed with the Astros, who had received the World Collection just a few weeks earlier.

It appeared like the best vacation spot for his three-year autumnal epilogue. Houston wasn’t relying on him to be the centerpiece of the lineup; moderately, his position can be to shore up first base and/or designated hitter for just a few years and help stars like Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. With the Astros coming off a 106-win season and a World Collection championship, with a lot of their core gamers returning, it actually appeared that his new group would offer Abreu a greater likelihood to win a hoop than he would’ve had with the clearly fading White Sox. To get an concept of what the cheap expectations have been for Abreu when he signed with Houston, let’s have a look at his three-year ZiPS projections heading into the 2023 season:

Whereas ZiPS was skeptical that Abreu can be an on a regular basis starter for all three years in Houston, it broadly thought he can be an sufficient average-ish possibility for a yr or two. Abreu bought off to a wretched begin final yr, hitting .214/.262/.253 with no residence runs by Could 14 whereas beginning 39 of the group’s first 40 video games. As I wrote final April, there wasn’t even a touch that his struggles have been a fluke; his plate self-discipline had deteriorated and his energy evaporated like a puddle after a July thunderstorm in Texas.

There are some extremely regarding points in Abreu’s early-season profile this yr that weren’t current in different early begins. When he struggles, he nonetheless usually hits the ball extraordinarily onerous. This yr, his exit velocity has averaged 86.6 mph with an total hard-hit fee of 36.7% — extraordinarily low numbers for him. He was awful final April, hitting .217/.308/.348, however he was nonetheless crushing pitches he linked with, leading to a 94.6 mph common EV and a hard-hit fee of 59.6%. He additionally struggled in April 2021, hitting .213/.296/.394, however with a 92.1 mph EV and a 53.7% hard-hit fee — not fairly pretty much as good as 2022, however worlds higher than the place these numbers at the moment stand. He bought off to good begins in 2018 and ’19, in order that they’re not significantly useful, and he crushed the ball in August of 2020 (I didn’t embody any 2020 seasons within the April numbers, because the yr was simply too bizarre).

Abreu performed considerably higher over the remainder of the 2023 marketing campaign, hitting .246/.309/.435 with 18 homers throughout 102 video games and capping issues off with 4 homers within the postseason. Quite than taking Abreu’s early-season woes as a warning that the tip was close to, the Astros proceeded to do little or no to select up one other bat over the offseason; their greatest transfer so as to add some growth to the lineup got here after they acquired Trey Cabbage from the Los Angeles Angels. Given Houston’s ALCS elimination by the hands of its cross-state rivals, the Texas Rangers, and its 90-72 document being its weakest since 2016, it’s onerous to guess why the Astros took such a lackadaisical method to a doable problem. Whether or not it has to do with the entrance workplace overhaul after James Click on left is a subject for one more day.

This season began off even worse for Abreu. He hit .111/.161/.123 with no homers, for an OPS (.284) that was even decrease than the profession OPS of Corridor of Fame pitcher/extraordinarily awkward hitter Randy Johnson (.305). His exit velocity numbers seemed loads like they did the earlier April, and he didn’t hit a single barrel. Issues have been so tough that Abreu agreed to be optioned to the minors to determine issues out, resulting in the moderately odd sight of a former MVP debuting within the minors at age 37; he went straight to the majors 10 years in the past after the White Sox signed him as a global free agent out of Cuba, and he by no means even performed within the minors on an harm rehab project. Abreu did get again to Houston after a stint in Rookie-ball and a pair video games with Triple-A Sugar Land, and he even hit two homers this month. However the writing was on the wall, and with the Mariners lastly placing some house between them and the remainder of the AL West, the Astros clearly couldn’t afford to attend endlessly for one more revival which will by no means come.

Over the brief time period, Jon Singleton is prone to proceed to get nearly all of the taking part in time at first base with Abreu out of the image, however saying Singleton improves the group is damning with faint reward; whereas it was cool to see him come again to the majors after a decade away, he’s not likely a productive main league bat. Singleton turns 33 later this yr and is a .183/.294/.322 profession hitter within the majors, with projections that rank from horrible (.214/.327/.388 in Steamer, .215/.324/.376 in ZiPS) to much more horrible (THE BAT at .193/.289/.343). Rookie Joey Loperfido would appear to be the plain in-house resolution to exchange Abreu, however he’s primarily been an outfielder thus far and the group hasn’t given him many begins at first base in Triple-A, which appears inconsistent with the concept that the Astros will supply him the subsequent crack on the job. An enormous enchancment right here seemingly would require a bigger commerce, and I’m frankly unsure the decision-makers in Houston proper now are geared up to maneuver swiftly and deftly.

What’s subsequent for Abreu? Whereas the pure inclination can be a return to the White Sox, I believe that will be a dreadful concept. Mal Tiempo doesn’t carry dangerous climate to opposing pitchers anymore, and I can’t assist however really feel that the whole lot good he’ll be remembered for in Chicago is up to now. The Sox want to make use of their dropping season extra productively than a farewell tour for Abreu, and a bench bat with the Pale Hose received’t get Abreu one final run within the playoffs. Maybe the Dodgers will signal him in July and he’ll slug .700 in 100 at-bats in a part-time position, as a result of they’re the Dodgers.

A enjoyable participant for a very long time and an excellent chief for the group and his metropolis, Abreu’s virtually actually going to fall wanting the Corridor of Fame, even perhaps dropping off the poll after his first yr of eligibility. It might be surprising if he added a lot to his profession 263 homers or 26.3 WAR (which is definitely two wins lower than it was when he left the White Sox), and we’ve but to see the Corridor of Fame voters credit score overseas play to get a borderline participant excessive. Ichiro Suzuki will simply make the Corridor of Fame when he debuts on the poll within the upcoming election, however that will be the case even when he had by no means performed in Japan. I wrote just a little about the opportunity of together with Abreu’s time in Cuba to guage his Corridor of Fame case again in 2021, however that was extra of a theoretical train than a severe expectation he’ll get votes.

No, Abreu isn’t going out on his finest, however the cruelty of time in baseball isn’t that completely different from life. Sooner or later, all of us will lose our capacity to do the issues we’re nice at, the issues we love, and finally, something in any respect. It’s simply that as a ballplayer, his transition comes at a comparatively youthful age beneath very public scrutiny. I’ve at all times been a fan of the Orson Welles quote on the topic, and it’s one I’ve mentioned that I’d prefer to have on my eventual epitaph: “If you’d like a contented ending, that relies upon, in fact, on the place you cease your story.” If that is the melancholy remaining chapter of the story of Abreu’s baseball profession, it was nonetheless a quantity that was great to learn.