Oneil Cruz Has Shaken Off the Rust

Oneil Cruz is a participant of extremes. The 6-foot-7 shortstop — the tallest man ever to play the place often — doesn’t simply have unimaginable bat pace and energy, he can lay declare to the hardest-hit ball of the Statcast period, and he as soon as held the report for the toughest throw by an infielder as effectively. However for as loud as his contact is, the frequency with which he makes it has been a problem, as he’s notably susceptible to chasing pitches outdoors the zone. Defensive metrics don’t love him both. But he’s the form of participant you may’t take your eyes off, as a result of when all of it comes collectively, it’s a sight to behold — and step by step, it’s been coming collectively extra ceaselessly.

Living proof: Final week discovered Cruz in a chronic funk, hitting simply .151/.224/.283 in his earlier 58 plate appearances relationship again to Could 15 whereas placing out 23 instances (39.6%) in that span. After going 0-for-4 in final Tuesday’s collection opener towards the Dodgers, he collected a pair of hits the following evening, together with this three-run homer off Evan Phillips:

That’s a 462-footer into the Allegheny River, the longest homer of Cruz’s main league profession by 25 toes, and the third splash hit of his profession; he additionally had ones on September 6, 2022 and Could 3 of this season. The 117.7-mph exit velocity on his shot off Phillips made it his hardest-hit residence run thus far by 0.2 mph, surpassing an August 28, 2022 dinger in Milwaukee. For each distance and exit velocity, he’s up there with the large boys; the homer off Phillips is the majors’ seventh-longest this 12 months behind three from Aaron Choose (a 473-footer from Could 9 being the longest) and ones by Mike Trout, Bobby Witt Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. Cruz’s homer is the fourth-fastest in exit velocity behind two by Giancarlo Stanton (a 119.9-mph shot from Could 8 being the quickest) and one by Ohtani. He’s proper there in taste nation on the subject of a few of the brand new bat monitoring metrics, second solely to Stanton in common bat pace (78.0 mph) and fast-swing fee (74.6%); he’s beneath common by way of his squared-up fee (23.1%) — that’s the speed at which he obtains a minimum of 80% of the utmost exit velocity for that swing — however a decent fifteenth in blast fee (16.2%), the speed at which he squares up balls on quick swings.

Cruz’s homer towards the Dodgers was his eighth of the 12 months, and his first since Could 12. The following day towards the Twins, he hit a towering 422-footer, 114.4 mph off the bat. Opposite to whoever referred to as this one, it didn’t go into the Allegheny, as an alternative bouncing across the higher deck of PNC Park:

As for these aforementioned extremes, on July 14, 2022, in simply the twenty fifth recreation of his main league profession, Cruz recorded the quickest throw by an infielder to that time, a 97.8-mph bullet on a groundout. That report fell by the wayside by the hands of Elly De La Cruz final 12 months, with Masyn Winn’s relay throw from Could 6 of this 12 months dialing the report as much as 101.2 mph, although in contrast to Cruz and De La Cruz, he didn’t really make an help. As for the bat, on August 24, 2022, Cruz recorded what nonetheless stands as the hardest-hit ball of the Statcast period, a 122.4-mph single off the precise area wall at PNC Park that surpassed a 122.2-mph single by Stanton from October 1, 2017. On Could 21 of this 12 months towards Giants, Cruz collected the 2 hardest-hit balls of the season, first a 120.4-mph single within the first inning after which a 121.5-mph double within the ninth; within the third, he additionally smoked a 116.3-mph double, making him the primary participant ever to report three batted balls of a minimum of 115 mph in a single recreation, in addition to the primary with two of a minimum of 120 mph:

That three-hit recreation occurred amid the aforementioned stoop; Cruz had collected one hit in his earlier 4 video games and would add simply two hits over his subsequent six.

By the feasts and famines, Cruz is now hitting .243/.298/.429 for a 102 wRC+, and .239/.301/.441 (105 wRC+) by 158 main league video games total, with 28 homers, 18 steals and a pair of.9 WAR in 655 PA; his 220 strikeouts can be three shy of Mark Reynolds‘ single-season report if he’d completed them multi functional 12 months. The majority of his time within the majors got here in 2022 when he performed 87 video games and launched 17 homers with a 105 wRC+ and 1.4 WAR. His numbers this 12 months represent respectable manufacturing for a 25-year-old shortstop, however have been in need of star caliber, and star caliber is the expectation for a participant who positioned eighth on our Prime 100 Prospects record two years in the past for pairing 80-grade uncooked energy with an 80-grade arm and plus pace. Then once more, some slack is so as on condition that Cruz was restricted to simply 9 video games final season after fracturing his left fibula in a house plate collision on April 9. Following surgical procedure to stabilize the bone and restore the syndesmosis (the fibrous joint held collectively by ligaments), he was anticipated to overlook 4 months, however he didn’t heal rapidly sufficient to begin a rehab task and return to the majors.

Underneath these circumstances, some rust may very well be anticipated. Cruz stumbled out of the gate, however since Could 1 — proper round midway by the pattern — he’s been far more productive:

Pirates normal supervisor Ben Cherington lately acknowledged the expectation that Cruz might wrestle within the early going, saying, “I feel I’ve already stated or would have stated that if the primary six to eight weeks have been slightly up-and-down for him, that wouldn’t have shocked me coming off of principally a missed 12 months and a serious harm.” Cherington has publicly pressured that the group would “simply let him play” by his ups and downs whereas working behind the scenes to assist him enhance.

In late April, Cruz spoke of battling to regain his confidence after final 12 months’s absence, and as of early Could, his surgically repaired ankle wasn’t but again to 100%. Pirates hitting coaches Andy Haines and Christian Marrero have launched some tweaks to his swing with a purpose to assist enhance his path to the ball. He’s holding his palms larger, and his stance is extra closed off, together with his legs barely nearer collectively, his physique barely extra upright. There’s a side-by-side GIF right here exhibiting the modifications.

These changes appear to be working, as probably the most encouraging features of the above cut up is the decline in Cruz’s strikeout fee. He struck out a hefty 34.9% of the time as a rookie and was even larger in March and April, however he lowered that to 30.9% in Could and is all the way down to 26.7% by seven video games in June. The place he walked simply as soon as for each 5.6 strikeouts in April, he’s all the way down to as soon as for each 3.7 strikeouts since.

The world the place we actually see Cruz’s enchancment — each relative to 2022 and to the early a part of the season — is in his batted ball stats:

Inside that span, Cruz’s common exit velocity trails solely Choose’s 99.2 mph and likewise for his barrel fee, which has practically quadrupled since March/April; his hard-hit fee is seventh throughout the identical timeframe. As you would possibly surmise given the will increase in common launch angle and anticipated slugging proportion, he’s hitting the ball within the air extra typically currently; his total 49.7% groundball fee displays a drop from 57.4% by April to 42.9% from Could 1 onward, together with his total 1.53 groundball-to-fly ball ratio falling from 1.95 to 1.22 utilizing those self same cutoffs.

Although he made some extent of exhibiting that he might go the opposite means early within the 12 months, Cruz’s present 41.4% pull fee isn’t far beneath his 43.7% from 2022. As with the information above, we’ve seen a dramatic course correction for the reason that early going, with a 25% pull fee from March and April rising to a 55.8% pull fee since. He pulled only one fly ball earlier than Could 1, however has 11 since, with 5 of them going for homers.

The large challenge for Cruz is chasing pitches out of the strike zone. Whereas the story thus far would recommend that currently he’s dramatically lower down on the chases and is making extra contact within the zone, that’s really not the case, a minimum of if we’re sticking to the Could 1 cutoff:

Quite the opposite, Cruz is chasing extra typically than in 2022, and solely about one proportion level much less typically since Could 1 than earlier than that date. He’s swinging at extra pitches within the zone currently… however making much less frequent contact, each in and outdoors the zone (although nonetheless greater than in 2022). His swinging strike fee has gone up, not down.

However that’s only one admittedly arbitrary level from which we will measure, a handy one given the calendar and the same pattern sizes on both aspect. Once we look at Cruz’s rolling chase fee, we will see that he’s gone by intervals when he was particularly chase-prone, usually coinciding with drops in manufacturing:

That set of purple spikes close to the center coincides with early Could; on a 10-game foundation, he reached most chase fee on Could 8, and whereas he’s largely reined in that tendency since then, he regressed on that rating proper on the finish of the month.

If it’s not fairly what we anticipated, it’s a minimum of been offset to a point by a greater two-strike strategy; by April, Cruz was hitting .176/.228/.189 (21 wRC+) whereas placing out 57% of the time with two strikes, however he’s discovered some energy (.135/.198/.284, 34 wRC+) since then whereas trimming his strikeout fee in such conditions to 45.7%. This counts as progress, however it’s nonetheless a variety of chasing pitches with little success. Cruz is chasing offspeed pitches (changeups and splitters) 48% of the time and breaking pitches (curves, knuckle curves, sliders, slurves, and sweepers) 34% of the time; he’s 2-for-30 with 17 strikeouts in plate appearances that finish with him chasing a breaking ball.

Cruz’s bat-tracking splits aren’t as dramatic as these of his batted ball stats; the large takeaways I’ll supply are that he’s elevated his common bat pace (from 77.5 mph to 78.3%), his quick swing fee has elevated by 5 factors (from 71.7% to 76.7%, and his blast fee has improved a contact (from 15% to 17%).

On the defensive aspect, the metrics are a blended bag, which shouldn’t be too shocking given the samples (678 innings in 2022, 502 this 12 months). Statcast faults Cruz for his lateral vary, however he’s improved from -6 to -1 by FRV; DRS and UZR supply a cut up choice, with decline within the former (from 1 to -4) and slight enchancment within the latter (-7.5 to -3.6). His long-term future might not be at shortstop, however it is sensible for the Pirates to maintain him there and hope for enchancment.

When you’re solely wanting on the top-line numbers, it’s straightforward to overlook Cruz’s beneficial properties relative to 2022. And whereas it’s OK to be cautious of any arbitrary endpoint splits, for probably the most half those I’ve proven illustrate that he’s making some really awe-inspiring contact and is usually headed in the precise course, in the direction of enchancment. Together with Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, and Nick Gonzales, he’s made the Pirates a extra compelling and aggressive group; at 32-34, they’re second within the NL Central by 6.5 video games and in a digital tie with the Giants for the third Wild Card spot, with 4 different groups simply half a recreation behind them. Cruz’s progress solely makes the race that rather more price watching.