Euro 2024 kicks off on Friday as Germany tackle Scotland in Munich, and a flying begin is on the agenda for Julian Nagelsmann’s group.
Scotland, of their fourth look on the European Championships, would in all probability have been hoping for a neater begin than going up towards the hosts within the event’s opening match.
Steve Clarke’s group certified in second place, behind Spain and forward of Erling Haaland’s Norway, from their group.
Germany, in the meantime, have picked up type below Nagelsmann since he was appointed as Hansi Flick’s successor, and the previous Bayern Munich coach has loads of expertise at his disposal, even when the Euro 2024 hosts should not thought of to be among the many greatest favourites.
Mats Hummels, Serge Gnabry and Leon Goretzka are three big-name absentees from Germany’s squad, whereas Bayern teen Aleksandar Pavlovic needed to withdraw from the squad on Wednesday resulting from harm.
However in Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Leroy Sane, Kai Havertz and Borussia Dortmund’s Niclas Fullkrug, Germany have an thrilling assault, whereas Toni Kroos will anchor the midfield earlier than he heads off into retirement.
That is Nagelsmann’s first main event as head coach. Jupp Derwall was the final Germany boss to win a significant event with them on the first try (Euro 1980).
Right here, we use Opta information to preview the Euro 2024 opener.
What’s anticipated?
It’s no shock to see that Germany are the overwhelming favourites to win this match, with Opta’s supercomputer rating their probabilities of victory at 58 per cent.
Germany and Scotland are going through one another for the third time at a significant event. Germany gained the 2 earlier encounters, within the group levels of the 1986 World Cup (2-1) and Euro 1992 (2-0).
Certainly, Scotland have gained solely one in all their final 13 matches towards Germany (D4 L8); it was in April 1999, with Don Hutchison scoring the one aim in a Bremen pleasant (0-1).
After shedding to Turkiye and Austria, Germany have gone unbeaten of their final 4 matches. That being stated, they weren’t notably spectacular of their warm-up matches.
Following a 0-0 draw with Ukraine, Germany beat Greece 2-1 final outing, although they mustered a disappointing 0.88 anticipated targets (xG), in distinction to their opponents’ 2.14.
The scoreline is the statistic that issues at tournaments, with Havertz grabbing an equaliser halfway by way of the second half earlier than Pascal Gross secured a late victory, but it surely ought to give Scotland some hope, although they’re handed only a 21 per cent win probability, with the draw risk additionally at 21 per cent.
Wednesday exercise #DFB #GermanFootball #GermanMNT #euro2024
DFB/ Philipp Reinhard pic.twitter.com/BcZJE1tDY4— German Soccer (@DFB_Team_EN) June 12, 2024
Scotland gained their first 5 Euro 2024 qualifiers however then did not win any of their remaining three (D2 L1), conceding seven targets in these video games after solely transport one aim of their first 5 video games.
They beat Gibraltar 2-0 after which drew 2-2 with Finland of their warm-up friendlies, although they head into Euro 2024 with out some key gamers, with full-backs Aaron Hickey and Nathan Patterson, and striker Lyndon Dykes, out resulting from harm.
Germany have gained solely one in all their final 5 matches performed in Munich (D3 L1), a 4-2 victory towards Portugal at Euro 2020, so whereas the sensible cash is on the hosts, Scotland shouldn’t go into this one with out confidence, with captain Andrew Robertson and midfield duo John McGinn and Scott McTominay providing a risk, too.
Dwelling hopes
That is the fourth time that Germany are sole hosts of a significant worldwide event, reaching the ultimate 4 in every of the earlier three editions: champions on the 1974 World Cup, semi-finalists at Euro 1988 and third place on the 2006 World Cup.
Germany are collaborating of their 14th Euros, greater than some other group. They’ve gained the trophy thrice, the joint-most alongside Spain.
Nagelsmann has been comfortable to lean on inexperience for his squad choice, and in Wirtz and Musiala, he has two of probably the most thrilling children in world soccer at his disposal.
Wirtz scored 11 targets and added 11 assists throughout Bayer Leverkusen’s unbeaten Bundesliga title-winning marketing campaign to assert Participant of the Season honours in Germany’s high tier.
Musiala, in the meantime, scored 10 targets from an xG of seven.9 within the league.
Behind them, the returning Kroos brings loads of expertise, alongside Ilkay Gundogan, who created the second-most probabilities of any participant in Europe’s high 5 leagues in all competitions in 2023-24, with 132.
Havertz is prone to lead the road with help from Fullkrug, however Thomas Muller is one other weapon in Germany’s arsenal. He has scored 10 targets in 19 appearances on the World Cup (36 pictures), however he has by no means scored in 15 appearances on the European Championships (31 pictures).
Will it lastly be Muller time?
On the different finish of the pitch, although, Germany do have some points. On paper, Jonathan Tah, Nico Schlotterbeck and Antonio Rudiger are a positive trio to select from within the centre of defence, whereas Joshua Kimmich can play at right-back, however Nagelsmann wants to verify the group’s defending is healthier than it was towards Greece. Maybe Hummels’ expertise would have been helpful?
Germany have conceded no less than one aim in every of their final 12 video games at main worldwide tournaments. The final time they stored a clear sheet was towards Slovakia within the spherical of 16 at Euro 2016.
Fourth time fortunate?
That is Clarke’s second main worldwide event as a supervisor, after Euro 2020. He’s the primary Scotland boss to steer the group into two consecutive Euros.
Scotland have by no means reached the knockouts of the Euros in any of their three earlier appearances on the event.
They’ve gained simply two of their 9 Euro matches, with these victories coming over CIS (Commonwealth of Unbiased States) in 1992 and Switzerland in 1996. Scotland have failed to attain in six of their 9 video games on the European Championships.
Whereas Germany are one of many hardest potential opponents to face first up, if Scotland might get one thing from this match, then they might be in an incredible place forward of conferences with Hungary and Switzerland.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Germany – Toni Kroos
Kroos’ presence in midfield shall be a significant enhance to a group that averaged 59.3 per cent possession at Euro 2020 – second solely to Spain (66.8 per cent).
The 34-year-old got here out of worldwide retirement to function for Germany of their residence event, although after all, it should now mark the ultimate aggressive occasion of his profession.
Kroos – who gained his sixth Champions League with Actual Madrid this month – performed extra line-breaking passes (214) and passes resulting in final-third entries (69) than some other participant in UEFA’s flagship membership competitors in 2023-24.
Scotland – Scott McTominay
A robust defence helped get them by way of qualifying, with a sprinkling of high quality from McTominay, who was the highest scorer in qualifying Group A with seven targets – another than Manchester Metropolis celebrity Haaland managed for Norway.
McTominay’s aim tally is the joint most by a Scottish participant in a Euros/World Cup qualifying marketing campaign, together with Steven Fletcher (Euro 2016) and McGinn (Euro 2020).
And what’s much more spectacular, is that McTominay’s targets got here from simply 1.77 xG, an overperformance of 5.23.