David Fry Is Flying Excessive

We knew the perfect hitter in baseball this yr can be a multi-positional expertise. We knew he would play for one of many prime groups within the league. We knew the worth of his contract would start with the phrases “seven hundred” and the primary syllable of his final identify can be a supply of advanced carbohydrates. What we didn’t know is that it will be Guardians catcher/outfielder/first baseman/third baseman/DH David Fry, who’s making $741,100 this season and at present leads the majors (min. 50 PA) in OBP (.488), OPS (1.079), wOBA (.459), and wRC+ (204).

The Brewers took Fry within the seventh spherical of the 2018 draft, ultimately sending him to the Guardians throughout the 2021-22 offseason because the participant to be named later in a commerce for right-hander J.C. Mejía. Fry had first appeared on the Brewers’ prime prospect listing forward of the 2020 season, when Eric Longenhagen ranked him twenty fourth in a weak system, noting the positional flexibility that made him “an fascinating potential bench piece.” That evaluation largely caught as Fry rose by means of the minor leagues (and switched organizations), though he was downgraded from a 40 FV to a 35+ FV in 2021 and ultimately fell out of the Guardians’ prime 50 forward of the 2023 season. Eric tweaked his analysis that yr, subtly downgrading Fry from “fascinating potential bench piece” to “fascinating twenty sixth man candidate.” It was a good evaluation on the time; Fry was roughly a league-average hitter in his first full season at Triple-A (105 wRC+). Getting into his age-27 marketing campaign, there wasn’t a lot purpose to guess on his upside.

But, Fry was arduous to disregard throughout his first full spring in massive league camp in 2023. He bookended that spring coaching with residence runs in his first and final at-bats and hit effectively in between, too, ending with a 154 wRC+ in 19 video games. Though he didn’t make the Guardians’ Opening Day roster, he absolutely made a superb impression; after a stable month again at Triple-A, he earned his name to the present. Enjoying catcher, first base, nook outfield, and somewhat little bit of third (with a few pitching appearances as well), Fry confirmed off his versatility whereas hitting effectively sufficient (106 wRC+) to gather main league paychecks for the remainder of the yr. Getting into 2023, ZiPS projected a .291 wOBA from Fry, and he boosted that projection to a .306 wOBA earlier than the beginning of this season. No one would name his efficiency final yr a breakout, however he put himself on the within observe to play a job for Cleveland as soon as once more in 2024.

Because it seems, “taking part in a job” for the Guardians was an enormous understatement. Fry leads the crew in WAR at two separate positions: catcher, the place he has a grand whole of 28 plate appearances, and DH, the place he has 18. He has additionally been the crew’s Most worthy pinch-hitter. Solely two Guardians gamers, Steven Kwan and José Ramírez, have extra WAR than Fry this season. In the meantime, solely nearer Emmanuel Clase has the next WPA. Regardless of Fry’s restricted taking part in time, he has been a key contributor on the crew with the third-best file within the majors. Certainly, although I could have been exaggerating after I known as him the perfect hitter in baseball, it wouldn’t be a hyperbole to say he’s been the most effective up to now this season. In simply 123 plate appearances (37 video games), he ranks among the many prime 40 place gamers in WAR. By wRAA, solely 10 hitters have supplied their groups with extra offensive worth; by offensive WPA, just one participant, Jordan Westburg, has Fry beat.

As talked about earlier, if you set the minimal taking part in time threshold to 50 plate appearances, Fry ranks first in OBP and wRC+; he’s additionally second in batting common (.344) and seventh in slugging (.591). His 204 wRC+ means he has been greater than twice as productive as a league-average batter and 14% higher than the subsequent greatest hitter, Shohei Ohtani. You could possibly deliver the brink all the way in which down to 5 plate appearances and nonetheless solely three batters would have the next wRC+ than Fry: Josh Jung (285 wRC+ in 19 PA), Mark Vientos (229 wRC+ in 26 PA), and Brett Properly (205 wRC+ in 21 PA). It’s spectacular within the different course too; if you happen to add 45 hitless at-bats to Fry’s general line in order that he qualifies for charge stat leaderboards, he’d nonetheless rank among the many prime 30 gamers in OBP and the highest half of certified batters in OPS.

It comes as no shock that Fry is operating a .406 BABIP, and his .459 wOBA is sort of 90 factors larger than his .372 xwOBA. No doubt, his Josh Gibson-esque offensive numbers are unsustainable. That mentioned, we don’t have to write down his phenomenal begin off fully as a result of it has are available a small pattern. Fry is doing quite a lot of issues very well. Maybe most spectacular is his 17.9% stroll charge, which is driving his close to .500 OBP. He has additionally managed to get hit by six pitches already this season, and since his debut, he has been hit 10 occasions in 236 journeys to the plate. Solely six gamers (min. 100 PA) have been hit by pitches at the next charge in that point. Maybe that is no fluke; as our affiliate editor Matt Martell wrote in a chunk for The New York Instances final yr, getting hit by a pitch is definitely a talent that gamers have and may develop. On prime of that, Fry has struck out much less usually than the typical hitter this season. Thus, combining walks and HBP, he has extra free passes (28) than strikeouts (25).

On the subject of his latest success, Fry advised reporters, “After I’m going effectively, I’m not eager about my swing. Simply how I’m going to assault the pitcher and his plan.” That might be true, but it surely’s humorous to suppose that his main technique of “assault” is endurance. Somewhat than hitting his opponents first with a pre-emptive strike, he likes to put on them down (or put on their pitches) till they defeat themselves.

Fry has swung at fewer than 20% of pitches exterior the strike zone this yr, placing him within the 92nd percentile for chase charge. He has supplied at solely 15 of 111 (13.5%) pitches within the chase zone and none within the waste zone. For context, the league common swing charges in every zone are 22.7% and 5.5%, respectively. Out of 314 hitters who’ve seen no less than 100 pitches within the chase and waste zones mixed, Fry ranks within the 93rd percentile in swing charge.

Opposing pitchers have definitely tried to tempt him into chasing. Almost 300 batters have seen no less than 400 pitches this yr, and just one, Mitch Garver, has seen sliders at the next charge than Fry. Even so, Fry’s chase charge in opposition to sliders is a mere 11.9%; the league common charge is nearly 3 times as excessive. Almost 200 hitters have seen no less than 50 sliders exterior the strike zone this yr, and solely two have swung much less usually than Fry. And, for what it’s value, though he has seen solely eight curveballs exterior the zone, he has but to be tricked by a single one in every of them.

It’s not that Fry doesn’t swing in any respect. His 71.5% in-zone swing charge (per Baseball Savant) is definitely larger than the league common, which sits at 67% this season. Furthermore, it’s not as if he hasn’t needed to make his fair proportion of adverse swing selections. Of the 235 pitches he has seen within the strike zone, 47.7% have been on the sides, the areas often known as the shadow zone. League common is barely 46.3%. Merely put, he’s seeing pitches effectively and making good swing selections, and it’s paying off.

Fry has executed a a lot better job getting forward in counts this yr, bringing his first-pitch strike charge down from 69.9% to 56.9%. Consequently, he has seen 30.1% of all his pitches whereas forward within the rely; the league common is 26.3%. He additionally swings extra usually than the typical participant on pitches within the strike zone whereas he’s forward within the rely. That’s extra good proof that his plate self-discipline is an act of selectivity and never simply passivity; he’s not afraid to swing at a pitch he likes even when he’s in a superb place to attract a stroll.

To that time, one other profit of wonderful plate self-discipline is that the pitches Fry chooses to swing at are going to be higher pitches to hit. That’s one purpose why he has executed such an incredible job getting the bat on the ball this season. He has an above-average swing charge within the coronary heart zone. His launch angle, sweet-spot charge, and pull charge on balls within the air are all effectively above common. By making contact at excellent launch and spray angles, he’s compensating for mediocre bat velocity and exit velocities, which is why he has been capable of hit for a superb little bit of energy (5 doubles and 6 residence runs) this season. He doubtless received’t stay a premier energy risk all yr, however proper now, he’s doing precisely what he must do to succeed.

Regardless of all that, Fry’s offense may not even be probably the most spectacular side of his season; we’ve barely scratched the floor of his protection. His glove hasn’t stood out at anybody spot, however the uncommon mixture of positions he performs places him in uncommon territory. For the reason that implementation of the designated hitter in 1973, solely 10 totally different gamers have performed no less than three video games in a single season at catcher, first base, third base, outfield, and DH. Solely two have executed so with a wRC+ above 100: Fry and Corridor of Famer Carlton Fisk. If Fry seems in yet one more recreation at third base (he’s at present at three), he’ll be a part of Jake Fox in 2010 as the one gamers to have appeared in no less than 4 video games in any respect 5 of the aforementioned positions. With two extra video games on the scorching nook, Fry will change into the primary participant in recorded historical past to play no less than 5 video games in a single season in any respect 5 of these spots.

And don’t neglect, we’re speaking a few man who additionally pitched final season. In 2023, Fry grew to become one in every of solely seven gamers to have performed catcher, first base, third base, outfield, DH, and pitcher no less than as soon as in a single season. He and Chris Gimenez are the one gamers to have executed so with a wRC+ above 100. Lastly, Fry is one in every of solely six gamers to have performed no less than two video games in any respect six of these positions at any level in his main league profession. Todd Zeile is the one different one with a profession wRC+ above 100. What’s extra, Fry achieved the feat far faster than any of the 5 earlier than him:

One last item Fry has managed to do remarkably rapidly is sway the projections. The remaining-of-season projections you’ll discover on his participant web page already look dramatically totally different from the preseason figures. Getting into the season, ZiPS and Steamer each had Fry as a 95 wRC+ hitter. Two months later, his ROS Steamer projection is as much as 112 wRC+, whereas his ROS ZiPS projection is as much as 122 wRC+. Even the decrease of these two numbers can be a pleasant shock from a hitter who seemed like a Quad-A utility man as not too long ago as this time final yr. Davis Schneider is asking, and he’d like his schtick again.

The Guardians, however, have had much less success convincing the projections they’re for actual; we nonetheless have them as a below-.500 crew for the remainder of the season. Nonetheless, Cleveland has been so dominant over the primary two months of the 2024 marketing campaign that it has change into the favorites within the AL Central. David Fry, probably the most surprising contributor for the surprising contenders, is likely to be the primary purpose why.