This text isn’t actually about Joey Ortiz. Or, properly, it’s, but it surely’s additionally about how numbers will idiot you. Let’s begin with a couple of numbers, then. Ortiz is strolling 12.9% of the time to this point this yr, excess of common and excess of he ever did within the excessive minors. He’s chasing pitches outdoors of the strike zone solely 24% of the time, an enormous change in strategy. Final yr within the minor leagues, that quantity stood at 34.5%. In consequence, he’s swinging and lacking far much less typically. There’s the story of how Ortiz has improved.
Only one downside: That story doesn’t maintain as much as nearer examination. Let’s break the strike zone up into 4 components the best way Baseball Savant and the Statcast group do it. There’s the center of the plate (coronary heart), the sides of the plate and the world simply off of it (shadow), the world the place good breaking pitches typically find yourself (chase), and the land of non-competitive pitches (waste). You’d count on Ortiz to swing much less often than common at chase and waste pitches. You’d be unsuitable:
Ortiz Swing Charges by Zone
| Zone | Ortiz Swing% | League Swing% |
|---|---|---|
| Coronary heart | 62% | 73% |
| Shadow | 40% | 52% |
| Chase | 25% | 23% |
| Waste | 6% | 5% |
That’s baffling. For comparability’s sake, teammate Rhys Hoskins has comparable chase and zone swing charges, and he’s swinging at 17% of chase pitches and 1% of waste pitches. He’s additionally swinging extra often than Ortiz at pitches over the center of the plate.
The rationale this could occur is the shadow zone. These are the hardest pitches to guage, and in mixture batters have a tricky time telling ball from strike in that space. They’re swinging at 59.9% of shadow zone pitches that cross the zone, versus 43.6% of the time at pitches that simply barely miss the rulebook zone. In different phrases, hitters are swinging much less, however they’re nonetheless getting fooled very often. That makes good intuitive sense. When a hitter takes a pitch a fraction of an inch off the plate, somebody is more likely to say “I don’t know the way he managed to take that” or “what a take!” It’s extremely tough to put off of these close to misses.
Solely, it hasn’t been tough for Ortiz. He’s pretty unremarkable on the subject of swinging at shadow pitches within the zone, which I’ll name “shadow-in” pitches; his 53% shadow-in swing fee is lower than league common however not by a staggering quantity. How about shadow-out? He’s out of the blue Juan Soto, with a 25.2% swing fee. In actual fact, Soto swings 30.8% of the time at these pitches. Solely three gamers in all of baseball – Andrew McCutchen, Jonathan India, and LaMonte Wade Jr. – are fishing much less often on these extraordinarily tough pitches.
That’s spectacular. However it goes from spectacular to complicated when you think about the remainder of what he’s doing. If a batter has the requisite abilities to separate the pitches that clip the zone from those that simply miss it, we’d count on them to mash pitches down the center of the plate and ignore unhealthy ones. However Ortiz isn’t doing that in any respect. He has one of many lowest coronary heart of the plate swing charges in all of baseball, and he swings at pitches within the chase zone greater than common.
Is that this some particular ability of Ortiz’s? I’m skeptical, not due to something specifically about his sport, however as a result of it doesn’t make intuitive sense. Right here’s one mind-set about it. Right here’s a curated record of gamers with comparable gaps between their coronary heart swing fee and chase swing fee: Adley Rutschman, Paul Goldschmidt, CJ Abrams, Logan O’Hoppe, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryson Stott, Sal Frelick. I don’t consider these guys as having notably sterling batting eyes; fairly, I hardly suppose twice about them on the subject of plate self-discipline. Ortiz outstrips everybody round him on the subject of discerning pitches within the shadow zone, although; the gamers on this cohort drop their swing charges by 13 share factors within the transition from shadow-in to shadow-out, and he’s at 27.8 share factors.
On the opposite aspect of the coin, contemplate the hitters who choose proper from unsuitable on the margins of the zone in addition to Ortiz. This group contains hitters like Francisco Lindor, Austin Riley, Masataka Yoshida, Fernando Tatis Jr., Steven Kwan, and Ian Happ. These guys know what they’re doing on the plate. However they swing at extra meatballs and get fooled into swinging at fewer chase pitches than Ortiz does by an enormous margin; they’ve a 52 share level hole in these two swing charges, versus 37 share factors for Ortiz.
It is a long-winded method of claiming that in case you’re on the lookout for the abilities which are going to make Ortiz a wonderful main league hitter, that you must look past his eye on the plate. Does he even have among the finest eyes in baseball? Nearly definitely not. However he most likely received’t swing at so few pitches over the center of the plate going ahead both, as a result of he clearly has not less than an honest sense of the zone; you don’t find yourself with numbers like his utterly by chance.
So is he among the finest gamers in baseball on the subject of telling balls from strikes, or merely common? Most likely someplace within the center, however I believe he’ll proceed to earn powerful walks at an above-average clip. See, a part of the rationale that his coronary heart swing fee is so unhealthy is that he lets pitchers put him in a gap to start out plate appearances. Ortiz takes first pitches extra often than the league as an entire; he additionally takes 1-0 and 0-1 pitches extra often than the league as an entire. These pitches are disproportionately proper down the center of the plate.
The factor is, Ortiz doesn’t actually need to try this. That strategy makes extra sense in case you’re both a slap hitter who desires to work a stroll or are searching a pitch in a selected location. As finest as I can inform, neither of those displays who Ortiz is as a hitter. He does most of his harm proper over the center of the plate, similar to you’d count on. He began hitting for extra energy in 2023, and that’s carried proper over into 2024.
Naturally, that energy isn’t really easy to know both. Ortiz swings the bat arduous and the common exit velocity of the highest half of his batted balls is within the prime third of the league. That’s fairly good, however nothing particular. He additionally mishits the ball rather a lot, which is how he finally ends up with beneath common exit velocity, candy spot fee, and squared up fee. In different phrases, he’s sacrificing some contact consistency to provide loud contact when he does join.
That’s paying off, as a result of he’s an exceptional contact hitter. Regardless of his aggressive hacks, he’s making contact on 92% of the in-zone pitches he swings at, an elite fee. Mix that along with his unconventional strike zone mastery, and you’ve got a really powerful out. Are you able to get Ortiz to swing at unhealthy pitches? Most undoubtedly. Is he susceptible to some mishits? For certain. However these are small headwinds contemplating all of the issues Ortiz is doing proper on the plate.
Oh yeah, he’s an excellent defender, too. He’s largely performed third this yr, however can deal with second and shortstop as properly. If it weren’t for Willy Adames, he’d most likely be the Brewers’ on a regular basis shortstop, and I’d count on Ortiz to take over that function if Adames leaves in free company after this season. Put merely, Ortiz appears to be like like a future foundational participant in Milwaukee.
He doesn’t have to sustain his present tempo on offense for that to be the case, which is an efficient factor. I don’t suppose he’ll keep both his outrageous energy on contact outcomes or his sterling strikeout-to-walk ratio. If I needed to guess, I’d put him down for an offensive line round 10% higher than common the remainder of the best way, somewhat worse than the anticipated numbers he’s produced to this point in 2024 and far worse than his precise manufacturing.
That’s not a disappointment, although. Should you went again in time and advised final yr’s Brewers followers that the group would commerce Corbin Burnes, they’d be dissatisfied. Should you advised them that the return could be a wonderful defensive infielder who hits for energy and will get on base, they’d be excited. Should you advised them that infielder could be round by way of 2029, they’d be ecstatic. And in case you advised them they’d get one other prime prospect (left-hander DL Corridor) within the discount, they most likely wouldn’t consider you. The Brewers and Orioles have each come out of the Burnes commerce forward, and Ortiz’s spectacular efficiency is a large motive why.