DJ Stewart Is Strolling Right here

I prefer to amuse myself by imagining a state of affairs by which Brad Pitt’s Billy Beane has to exchange a departing Juan Soto. Now, if Moneyball got here out within the 2020s, Soto would’ve been traded years in the past and Jonah Hill’s Peter Model can be heroically determining how you can procure a block of taxpayer-funded stadium-adjacent condos for Steve, the cheapskate proprietor. Nevertheless it’s my creativeness, so it doesn’t should be that bleak.

It is a form of reverse-Six Million Greenback Man state of affairs: “We should rebuild him; we don’t have the cash.” Soto doesn’t present any particular worth within the discipline or on the bases; even the most affordable workforce within the league can discover an unremarkable defensive nook outfielder who steals 10 bases a 12 months. The tough factor about discovering a poor man’s Soto is changing his capacity to get on base.

Guys who run a .400 OBP, or a stroll price within the excessive teenagers, are uncommon however not distinctive. Particularly should you exclude these high-OBP guys who additionally bat close to .300 and have 30-plus house run energy, the instruments that worth the imaginary A’s out of Soto’s market. (Or Bryce Harper’s or Aaron Choose’s or Kyle Tucker’s.)

For a couple of 12 months now, my reply to the query of how one would go about Hatteberging Soto’s Giambi has been LaMonte Wade Jr., the Giants’ first baseman. Wade leads all of baseball with a 21.4 BB%; having drawn solely a single intentional stroll this season, Wade’s unintentional stroll price is lower than two factors beneath Barry Bonds’ unintentional stroll price in 2001 and 2004. (Anybody who walks that a lot in a metropolis as hilly as San Francisco should have calf muscle tissue the scale of rugby balls.)

Wade’s has solely homered twice in 2024 as of this writing, and his ISO is just .111, but when he might hit for energy he’d be making $30 million a 12 months too.

Let’s decrease the plate look threshold slightly, to 90. No. 2 on the stroll price checklist is DJ Stewart, who in response to Baseball Savant additionally has the bottom chase price within the league. Stewart was a late first-round decide by the Orioles in 2015 out of Florida State, however by no means caught on with Baltimore even because the workforce languished within the 100-loss zone.

Stewart emerged as a part-time participant with the Mets final 12 months, and on this rebuilding 12 months the 30-year-old has staked a declare to the lengthy aspect of a DH platoon. Stewart is just hitting .205, however his stroll price, together with 4 house runs in 69 at-bats, has introduced his wRC+ all the best way as much as 141.

Even in 1 / 4 of a season as a platoon participant, this can be a fairly outstanding efficiency. Stewart was good when he performed final 12 months (.244/.333/.506 in 58 video games) however he’s doubled his stroll price and minimize his strikeout price by a 3rd. His chase price — 25.8% final 12 months and near 30% for his profession heading into this season — has fallen to 14.0%.

So earlier than the Mets-Phillies recreation on Wednesday evening, I requested Stewart what changes he’d made to carry all this about, to develop into essentially the most selective hitter in baseball.

Stewart shrugged.

“I’ve at all times had a superb eye,” he says. “I simply really feel good with my swing proper now, and I’m actually zoning in on the place I would like the ball to be. And in the event that they’re not throwing it there, then I’m not swinging at it.”

Stewart’s proper — he has at all times had a superb eye. His school coach, the late Mike Martin, was well-known for creating offenses that had been completely depressing to pitch in opposition to; Martin’s groups had been often among the many nationwide leaders in walks and OBP, and consequently his Seminoles had been good for 40 wins a 12 months like clockwork. Stewart was Florida State’s standout hitter throughout his time in Tallahassee, and in his draft 12 months — in an atmosphere pretty hostile to offense — he posted an OBP of an excellent .500.

“It’s positively one thing that’s preached at Florida State, to get on base any approach you may, whether or not that’s drawing walks or getting hit by pitches,” Stewart says. “However at this degree, you wish to get on base, however you wish to do injury as nicely.”

Stewart can do injury when he makes contact, however may be very picky about “his pitch.” Principally, something up within the zone is not any good. He’s nonetheless in search of his first hit this 12 months within the high third of the strike zone. Something within the backside third of the zone is ok, however not nice. However he demolishes pitches within the center third.

On pitches middle-middle, particularly, Stewart is a menace. Like, everybody does injury on pitches over the guts of the plate, however even by that normal Stewart has been superior this 12 months. And he is aware of it. He’s seen 27 pitches middle-middle, swung 23 instances, and missed as soon as. Listed here are his numbers on these pitches, together with how they evaluate to hitters throughout the league.

Nonetheless, getting actually nothing out of the highest third of the strike zone isn’t nice, and possibly explains why Stewart is strolling 20% of the time however is just hitting .205.

However one of many massive breakthroughs in baseball evaluation up to now 12 months has been formalizing the concept of selective aggression: swinging at pitches you are able to do injury on and spitting on the others.

“I’m not up there making an attempt to attract a stroll, that’s for positive,” Stewart says. “I’m making an attempt to do injury in my zone. And in the event that they miss [my zone]? Take it and dwell with the outcomes.”

So with that in thoughts, right here’s Stewart’s swing price by pitch location.

He’s nonetheless swinging at pitches that beat him up within the zone, however exterior the zone? Stewart simply isn’t . These squares are bluer than Cookie Monster’s bottom.

Additionally, are you curious how a man with a Nineteenth-percentile whiff price ended up with a 57th-percentile Okay%? I positive as heck was. Seems that with two strikes, Stewart is just swinging at 3.2% of pitches exterior the zone. That’s tied for the third-lowest swing price among the many 329 hitters who’ve seen 250 or extra pitches this season. In order that in all probability helps.

And since Stewart has exhibited such unusually good command of the strike zone, he’s performed his approach into an everyday function, beginning and taking part in the next share of his workforce’s video games than in any pervious season. Regardless that he’s solely began slightly over half the Mets’ video games, Stewart says he’s very proud of the communication he’s gotten from supervisor Carlos Mendoza and the Mets teaching employees.

“Yearly has a studying curve,” he says. “It’s slightly bit totally different. However I feel our supervisor does an excellent job of speaking with us — conditions [we might play and] who we would face if we’re not beginning.”

On Sunday, Stewart received his second profession begin in an unfamiliar function: Batting leadoff. With Brandon Nimmo nursing aspect soreness, Mendoza put Stewart — who’s second to Nimmo on the workforce in walks — on the high of the lineup.

With the Mets taking part in the Phillies — a workforce that leads off its lineup with a hitter who batted .197 with 47 house runs and led the league in strikeouts in 2023 — I requested Stewart about it. As a stocky left-handed hitter who hits from a crouch, the extra Stewart walks the extra he begins to resemble a Kirkland Signature Kyle Schwarber.

Stewart replied that he’d batted first rising up, so he was comfy at that spot even when he’s been extra of a middle-of-the-order man within the execs. He additionally took pains to emphasize that “now we have an excellent leadoff batter.”

However: “I don’t care the place I hit. It doesn’t matter to me.”

When it comes to lineup place, that is likely to be true. However “the place” — figuring out the place to swing and the place to take — has been the important thing to Stewart’s season.