Willson Contreras and the Cardinals Catch a Unhealthy Break

Willson Contreras’ tenure with the Cardinals has not lacked for drama, controversy, or interruptions in his work behind the plate. Sadly, the most recent chapter in that saga started on Tuesday, when a J.D. Martinez swing fractured the 31-year-old catcher’s left forearm. After present process surgical procedure on Wednesday, he’s more likely to be out till across the All-Star break, leaving the struggling Cardinals to proper their season with out their most efficient hitter.

The harm befell in the course of the high of the second inning of Tuesday’s Mets-Cardinals sport. With one out and no person on base, Martinez swung at a 2-1 slider from Miles Mikolas and related squarely with Contreras’ forearm “like a lumberjack taking a hack at a sequoia tree,” as Cardinals broadcaster Brad Thompson stated. Conteras went down instantly after which started flailing round in apparent ache earlier than being tended to by the Cardinals’ workers. Including insult to harm, Martinez was awarded first base because of catcher’s interference. Right here’s the video, which isn’t for the faint of coronary heart:

X-rays taken on the ballpark confirmed the fracture, and whereas the Cardinals haven’t revealed whether or not it was Contreras’ radius or ulna that broke, Below the Knife’s Will Carroll reported that he did have a plate inserted as a result of the bone was barely out of alignment. It’s value noting that within the instant aftermath of the harm, Contreras stated he was instructed he’d be out six to eight weeks, however that estimate has since been revised upward to 10 weeks, which might put his return proper after the All-Star break.

The harm might properly have disadvantaged Contreras of a fourth All-Star choice, because it comes at a time when he ranks among the many NL’s high hitters. In his second yr with the Cardinals, he’s batting .280/.398/.551 with six homers in 128 plate appearances, rating eighth within the NL in on-base proportion, sixth in wRC+ (171), and fifth in each slugging proportion and WAR (1.8) — together with his youthful brother, Brewers catcher William Contreras, in shut proximity (.340/.414/.517, 165 wRC+, 1.9 WAR) in most of these classes. However for all of Contreras the Elder’s contributions at and behind the plate, the Cardinals are in tough form. They entered Friday having misplaced 13 out of 19 to fall to 15-22, final within the NL Central. Their odds of successful the division have plummeted from 33.2% to five.6% since Opening Day, with their odds of creating the playoffs falling from 48.2% to 14% in that very same span. With Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, and several other different gamers in an ongoing funk, Nolan Arenado is their solely remaining common with a wRC+ of at the very least 100, and the group ranks final within the league in scoring at 3.43 runs per sport.

Whereas it’s straightforward to forged Martinez because the villain for this harm given his popularity for standing deep within the batter’s field, the truth is that Conteras was reaching into harmful territory — a part of the continued, industry-wide pattern of catchers shifting nearer to the plate as a way of enhancing their skill to border low pitches. Because of this, catcher’s interference calls have change into rather more frequent; in 2023, such incidents occurred 3.8 occasions as typically as in 2013, and eight occasions as typically as in 2003 — and proper now, they’re up 50% in comparison with final yr! Right here’s a graph that reveals the explosion:

As MLB.com’s Tom Tango illustrated on his weblog final August, interference name charges enhance the nearer a catcher is to the plate (as measured by Statcast’s common location of his proper shoulder) and reduce the additional again he positions himself, with 66 inches behind the plate the purpose of inflection. The correlation between positioning and framing is such that inside the 57-to-72 inch vary the place catchers place themselves, each inch nearer to the plate is value an additional run of framing. In the meantime, every interference name prices about 0.3 runs. Theoretically, if a catcher strikes up by six inches and provides six runs value of framing, he’d need to get known as for interference 20 occasions to cancel that out, however within the Statcast period, solely as soon as has a catcher dedicated greater than 5 CIs in a single season: the Tigers’ Jake Rogers, with six final yr. Contreras had three such cases final yr, matching his profession excessive; Tuesday’s name was his first of the season.

Coincidentally, Contreras’ harm occurred sooner or later wanting the one-year anniversary of the Cardinals’ panicky announcement that the group was dissatisfied sufficient together with his work behind the plate to maneuver him into the DH slot whereas making light-hitting backup Andrew Knizner the first catcher. The group had signed Contreras to a five-year, $87.5 million deal the earlier December, however off to a 10-24 begin that had all the pieces to do with its mediocre pitching workers, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and supervisor Oliver Marmol used the newcomer as a scapegoat. Marmol cited shortcomings in Contreras’ communication with the pitching workers whereas additionally conceding that Contreras had labored to enhance in his bottom-of-the-zone pitch framing. Following a nine-game hiatus, Contreras was again to catching, however after beginning 23 of the group’s first 32 video games (72%), he began simply 66 of its ultimate 121 video games (55%). The Cardinals by no means recovered from that dreadful begin, ending 71-91. For what it’s value, the group went 35-56 with Contreras beginning at catcher and 36-37 with Knizner or Iván Herrera.

By the pitch framing metrics of each FanGraphs and Statcast, Contreras’ framing work declined considerably from his final two seasons as a Cub to his first one as a Cardinal regardless of the adjustment in his positioning. By Statcast’s different catching metrics, his total protection declined as properly, although solely by a number of runs:

Talkin’ Baseball had a very good visible illustration of how a lot nearer to the batter Contreras had moved:

Willson Contreras utterly modified how he units up his glove when he went from the Cubs to the Cardinals pic.twitter.com/WxZhIS6wbb

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) Might 8, 2024

For what it’s value, Contreras’ fee of getting known as strikes on the backside of the zone had improved this yr. Right here’s a Frankensteined screenshot from his Statcast web page, with the info exhibiting his previous 4 seasons and the known as strike charges for the underside left, heart and proper of the shadow zone, which you’ll be able to see in context of his total work within the far proper column:

Relative to the league, Contreras has been strongest in zones 17 (seventh out of 59) and 14 simply above it (fourth).

Within the instant aftermath of the harm, Marmol and Contreras each acknowledged the dangers created by having the catcher transfer nearer to the plate. “The danger is excessive. We simply skilled it,” stated the supervisor. “The extra catchers are evaluated on framing, the nearer they’re attending to the hitter to get that low pitch.”

“I believe one of the simplest ways to border is to get nearer,” stated Contreras, who known as the harm “probably the most painful I’ve been by, for certain.” Even so, he declined to second-guess his positioning, saying, “It may’ve been off my knee, it could possibly be a concussion. That threat is all the time going to be there. I’m not blaming any a part of my sport as a result of this occurred tonight.”

Contreras refused responsible Martinez, both. “He noticed the pitch actually late and tried to get his emergency swing off, and that’s when he hit me… I believe if he sees the pitch properly, he would attempt to hit it out in entrance, and he wouldn’t hit me. I’m not blaming him. He’s doing his factor.”

Martinez was remorseful, saying, “You’re anticipating to hit a ball and also you hit an arm… I felt I hit meat. I didn’t hit only a glove, the place you sort of simply level again on the catcher… I felt horrible.”

Whereas the eventual arrival of robotic umps through the automated ball and strike system (ABS) may put off the necessity for catchers to border pitches and thus permit them to maneuver additional out of hurt’s method, that might solely work if the total model is adopted, with each pitch being known as electronically. Primarily based on its utilization in Triple-A, gamers, coaches, and followers favor the problem system model, the place the house plate umpire calls balls and strikes and groups are given a restricted variety of alternatives to confirm whether or not or not a given pitch was known as accurately. Below that mannequin, framing would nonetheless have its place, and groups would possibly nonetheless chase the benefits that include nearer positioning.

As to the place the Cardinals go from right here, Herrera, who began 10 video games final yr and 16 this yr, will get the majority of the begins, with Pedro Pagés, who was simply recalled from Triple-A Memphis, backing him up. The 23-year-old Herrera was as soon as thought-about the group’s catcher of the longer term, however whereas his bat has developed (Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin described him as “an above-average contact hitter with plus really feel for the strike zone”), he’s no Yadier Molina behind the plate. As a prospect he graded at 35 current worth and 40 future for his fielding total and 40 for his throwing. He spent most of final season at Memphis, hitting a strong .297/.451/.500 (147 wRC+) with 10 homers and an eye-opening 20.5% stroll fee in 375 plate appearances; in 44 PA with the Cardinals, he hit .297/.409/351. This yr, he’s batting simply .232/.276/.377 (86 wRC+) by 76 PA, and his protection has been shaky. Along with being 0-for-17 in throwing out stolen base makes an attempt, he’s about one run under common in 145.2 innings based on each our framing metric and that of Statcast.

Earlier than Wednesday’s sport towards the Mets was rained out, Marmol mentioned areas the place Herrera wants to enhance. “The (glove-to-hand) alternate and consistency of the place he’s lacking (his throws) is what you’re making an attempt to enhance,” he instructed reporters, including, “His footwork, alternate and with the ability to constantly throw and provides himself one of the best shot on the best aspect of the bag is what he’s engaged on. Numerous his misses are on that aspect. And that’s one thing that’s technical — you’ll be able to enhance that.” Marmol did reward Herrera’s preparation. “He receives properly, he’s persevering with to work on his blocking and throwing, however the largest enchancment has been in how he’s getting ready for the sport. And that’s allowed him to gradual the sport down whereas he’s calling it and sort of navigating a lineup and dealing with the pitcher.”

The 25-year-old Pagés, a 2019 sixth-round select of Florida Atlantic College, is “a really sure-handed and secure backup catching prospect with a plus arm,” based on Longenhagen, including that he has “a low-impact strategy” on the plate that’s on par with an enormous league-ready backup. He spent final yr at Double-A Springfield, hitting .267/.362/.443 (113 wRC+), and in 24 PA at Memphis this season had hit .222/.417/.500 between two call-ups that allowed the Cardinals to hold three catchers; together with Thursday’s begin, he’s 0-for-5 with a stroll and a sacrifice fly within the bigs.

Barring a sudden acquisition of an impression participant from outdoors the group — and final I checked, no person was making a gift of star catchers — there’s no getting round the truth that the Cardinals are going to overlook Contreras an amazing deal. They’re reeling as it’s, and received’t have a straightforward time turning themselves round with out one among their key gamers.