When the Braves signed Reynaldo López to a three-year, $30 million contract final winter, I used to be confused. Like most individuals in baseball, I believed López and Lucas Giolito had an E.T.-and-Elliott factor occurring, the place they couldn’t be separated. They’d come up collectively as minor leaguers with the Nationals, earlier than being traded collectively to the White Sox, then traded once more to the Angels, then waivered over to Cleveland, all with out breaking the telepathic hyperlink.
Denuded of his longtime colleague, López minimize a curious determine. The White Sox had tried to make him a starter within the late 2010s and it went badly. The one time López has ever led the league in something was when he led the league in earned runs allowed in 2019. Because the daybreak of the 2020s, he’s been a reliever, and one, however it was unlikely he’d return to the rotation, not to mention for a workforce with requirements as excessive as Atlanta’s.
However beginning pitching is tougher to return by than ever nowadays, and a significant theme of the 2023-24 free agent class was, “OK, however let’s make completely certain this man can’t begin.” Jordan Hicks, Jakob Junis, Nick Martinez, Michael Lorenzen, and López, after all.
To this point, so good. López has been Atlanta’s finest starter this yr, with an ERA of 1.53 in six begins. He accomplished six innings within the first 4 of these appearances, and in 5 of his six begins he’s allowed a most of 1 earned run. The one outlier concerned simply three runs over 5 innings and 7 strikeouts; hardly a stinker.
How is he doing it?
Nicely my first query when contemplating a reliever making a transfer to the rotation is how his velocity’s holding up as the sport goes on — particularly contemplating that López has truly been pitching fairly deep into video games by fashionable requirements. The reply: Nice, thanks for asking.
That does appear to be a precipitous decline in changeup velocity towards the tip, however to not fear: López has solely thrown one changeup this yr within the sixth inning or later. The truth is, López has significantly decreased his use of the changeup. Since 2021, López has been nearly solely fastball-slider towards same-handed hitters, and that has modified not one iota since he’s moved to the rotation. However he’s labored his curveball, which was little greater than a show-me pitch final season, into heavy rotation towards lefties.
And thank goodness. López isn’t faring that nicely typically towards lefties; his .317 opponent wOBA is his highest mark for the reason that final time he was within the rotation, and he’s strolling 15.6% of the left-handed hitters he’s confronted. However that’s not his curveball’s fault.
López has thrown 14 changeups this yr, all to lefties. 4 of them have been put in play, and of these, two have gone over the fence — the one two house runs he’s has allowed in six begins. His curveball, in contrast, has been a weapon.
López’s Breaking Balls vs. LHB
| Yr | Pitch % | BA | OBP | SLG | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 31.1 | .206 | .270 | .441 | 22.7 |
| 2022 | 32.7 | .216 | .211 | .459 | 31.7 |
| 2023 | 22.8 | .237 | .293 | .395 | 41.5 |
| 2024 | 32.9 | .120 | .185 | .200 | 43.9 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
That desk clearly ropes in López’s slider, which he throws to each left- and right-handed batters. That pitch has been simply as efficient, if no more so. Opponents are hitting .130 and slugging .152 towards the slider, with a whiff price of 46.2%. Chris Sale and Dylan Stop are not any. 1 and a pair of in Baseball Savant’s slider run worth leaderboard, however López is getting extra swings and misses than both of them.
Final yr, López’s slider was mediocre, and whereas its spin price is essentially unchanged, it has a barely completely different motion profile this yr. In 2023, it was very horizontal, however now, it’s obtained a bit of vertical drop to it. That’s assisted by one thing you may not consider as a optimistic: López isn’t throwing as onerous this yr as he did final yr.
That’s to be anticipated. Simply as a 100-meter sprinter runs quicker than a miler or a marathoner, a one-inning reliever throwing perhaps 20 pitches an evening goes to throw tougher than a starter who, like López, resides within the 80-to-95-pitch vary. Some velocity loss is simply the worth of doing enterprise.
And certainly, López’s pitches is perhaps constant inning to inning this yr, however they’re down about two or three miles per hour throughout the board from the place they have been final yr. It might be worse; Hicks has misplaced nearer to 5 miles per hour in velocity, though his transition to the rotation has been largely profitable to date.
However that explains the distinction in motion on López’s slider. As a result of it’s shifting extra slowly, it’s staying within the air longer, which supplies gravity extra time to behave, and it’s dropping extra. The identical is true for the curveball, which now lives within the 77 mph vary, down from about 80 the previous two seasons. And it’s not like López lacks fuel. His 95.2 mph common fastball velocity continues to be within the prime quartile of certified starters, and he can nonetheless attain again for 97 and 98 when he wants it.
As encouraging as these new developments are, López doesn’t truly have to get higher to be successful within the Braves’ rotation. There’s motive to count on him to chill off pretty quickly — other than the truth that a 1.53 ERA is facially ridiculous. López has the eighth-worst stroll price amongst 79 certified starters, and the eighth-biggest hole between his ERA and FIP.
However let’s say that he pitches, on a price foundation, in addition to he did final season. In 68 appearances totaling 66 innings in 2023, López had an ERA of three.27 and a FIP of three.91. How worthwhile is that? It’s good, however no person’s going to jot down about it. López posted 0.8 WAR and was a throw-in in a desperation commerce on the deadline.
However what if he may put up that ERA and FIP over a full season? López made 32 begins and threw 188 2/3 innings in 2018 and made 33 begins for 184 innings in 2019. Don’t take a look at his… hey — HEY! — I mentioned don’t take a look at his different stats in these seasons. I’m simply mentioning that there’s a historic precedent for him holding up for a full yr within the rotation.
If he does, and repeats his 2023 price stats, how worthwhile would that be? Nicely, final season, eight certified starters had an ERA between 3.00 and three.50 and a FIP between 3.50 and 4.00: Framber Valdez, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Castillo, Corbin Burnes, Merrill Kelly, Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton, and José Berríos.
These aren’t fifth starters, they’re All-Stars. They usually don’t make $10 million a yr in free company, they make two or thrice that a lot. The Braves don’t want something extra from López than what he’s already doing. They only want about 25 extra begins’ price of it.