Daulton Varsho will need to have been bummed. After a breakout 2022, he acquired traded to Toronto, a World Sequence contender with a determined want for outfielders. Then he had a down season, the Jays acquired swept out of the Wild Card spherical, and his previous staff made a shock run to the World Sequence. Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., the gamers Arizona acquired again for Varsho, have been key elements of that run. Oh, what may have been.
Probably the most worrisome of all these happenings, from Varsho’s perspective, was absolutely his personal efficiency. The whole lot else was both partially or absolutely exterior of his management, however this one appeared totally on him, and it’s laborious so as to add worth offensively whenever you’re getting on base at a .285 clip. Sure, he’s an amazing defensive participant and provides worth on the basepaths, however most of a place participant’s worth comes from hitting, and fairly frankly, his simply wasn’t adequate.
However ah, how the tables have turned. A 12 months after being one of many weakest hyperlinks on a wonderful Toronto offense, he’s the most effective gamers on a lackluster unit. Amongst Jays regulars, solely Justin Turner and Davis Schneider have hit higher. (Danny Jansen hasn’t performed sufficient but to rely as a “common” in my eyes.) There’s not a lot he can do about the remainder of the staff, however Varsho has reversed his personal fortunes for the second. Now there are two questions: How did he do it, and may he maintain it going?
A fast take a look at Varsho’s fee statistics would recommend one large change: He’s strolling extra. He’s operating an 11.7% stroll fee this 12 months, up from 7.7% a 12 months in the past, with out including any strikeouts. And certainly, few hitters in baseball have lowered their swing fee by greater than Varsho. He’s each chasing much less and swinging at pitches within the zone much less. His swinging strike fee is method down, he’s getting forward extra usually, the entire 9 yards. Did we remedy it? In that case, that’s nice, I can shut this text down early and go get lunch.
Dangerous information for Hungry Ben: We didn’t remedy it. In truth, Varsho’s swing fee seems like a crimson herring to me. In the event you break issues down by zones, I’m not even certain his change is a sustainable good factor. His coronary heart swing fee has declined from 78% to 73%, bang on league common. His swing fee on pitches within the chase zone, in the meantime, went from 20% to 17%. He was already fairly good at shedding unhealthy pitches, and he hasn’t improved a lot. He’s swinging at fewer pitches on the fringes of the plate or simply off of it, however these swings are difficult to guage. The headline factor that’s occurring right here is fewer swings at hittable pitches, although, and never sufficient additional takes on breaking balls to make up for it.
Wait, is there nothing to resolve? Varsho’s xwOBA has gone down whereas his outcomes have gone up. By that individual metric, he’s having his worst 12 months within the majors. Is that this only a matter of luck, one thing that can disappear within the fullness of time and depart Varsho trying like final 12 months’s mannequin, or even perhaps worse? Sadly once more for my lunchtime plans, I don’t assume so. However excellent news for Varsho: I believe that he’s tapping into one thing trickier to measure.
You in all probability consider Varsho as an influence hitter, or at the very least shut to at least one. He’s engaged on two straight seasons of 20 or extra homers, and he’s constructed like a operating again, 5’10” and chiseled. He’s quick and robust, which is how you find yourself as a catcher/heart subject hybrid as a prospect. However the information paints a unique image. His exit velocity numbers aren’t significantly imposing. Even in 2022, his greatest offensive season so far, he was within the fortieth percentile on the EV of his high 50% of batted balls. He’s maxed out at 112.5 mph throughout his whole large league profession, a quantity 48 hitters have already surpassed this 12 months, and 124 batters hit a ball more durable than that final 12 months. He’s yearly within the backside third of baseball in hard-hit fee.
Varsho’s residence runs aren’t due to his huge uncooked energy. They arrive courtesy of a technique greatest exemplified by division rival Isaac Paredes: Discover the closest wall and get the ball over it. This chart ought to assist clarify it:
Ah, sure. Put it within the air and pull it, and medium energy performs up. That’s significantly the case given the latest adjustments to the outfield in Toronto; a 2023 renovation moved the fitting heart subject wall 16 ft nearer to residence plate (and 4.5 ft increased). Park elements take some time to stabilize, however Rogers Centre was a median park for lefty energy within the earlier decade. It stands to cause that it’s higher than that now.
You understand how I mentioned that every one of Varsho’s swing adjustments have been smoke and mirrors? That is perhaps true because it pertains to his looking of middle-middle pitches, however that’s to not say that nothing has modified. You may’t faucet into your pull aspect energy in the event you don’t pull the ball, and it’s laborious to drag pitches on the outer half of the strike zone.
In 2024 to date, lefties are pulling 41% of their aerial contact once they swing at pitches on the inside third of the strike zone. That quantity falls to 21% on the outer third. That is only a physics drawback; take into consideration the angle the bat makes when it hits a ball in every location and also you’ll get the thought fairly shortly. Varsho is not any exception to this rule; he’s pulling 58% of his inner-third fly balls and solely 24% on the outer third.
We all know that Varsho is swinging much less usually this 12 months. The place are these lacking swings? On the outer third, kind of. Check out his swing charges by horizontal slice over his profession. I’ve added the areas simply off the plate on each side to bulk up the pattern, and likewise as a result of these are extra alternatives to place the ball in play:
Daulton Varsho’s Swing Fee by Location
| Yr | Interior Third | Center Third | Outer Third |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 59.7% | 62.9% | 72.7% |
| 2021 | 69.1% | 77.4% | 68.1% |
| 2022 | 64.1% | 74.9% | 65.7% |
| 2023 | 71.0% | 77.0% | 62.5% |
| 2024 | 73.2% | 74.3% | 48.6% |
That’s a stark change. He’s largely given up the surface a part of the plate. Final 12 months, he was within the high third of lefty hitters when it got here to outer-third swing fee. This 12 months, he’s 106th out of 125, a fifteenth percentile mark. In the meantime, he’s swinging extra on the pitches the place he can elevate and pull. In the event you’re a visible particular person, take a look at it this fashion. Listed below are his swing charges from 2023:
And right here they’re in 2024:
That’s a phenomenally necessary change. Pull-power hitters shouldn’t be swinging at pitches with out regard for his or her horizontal location; they need to be maximizing their harm potential. Varsho’s new method does a wonderful job of that. His pull fee on fly balls is up from 41% final 12 months to 52% to date in 2024, and 22.5% of his plate appearances this 12 months have ended with a pulled ball within the air, up from 18% final season and a pre-2024 profession mark of 16.3%.
Why is Varsho outperforming his xwOBA? It’s at the very least partially as a result of he’s crushing on these pulled fly balls. Regardless of uninspiring exit velocities, he’s producing a .772 wOBA on them, as in comparison with a .522 xwOBA. That’s what pull hitters with medium exit velocities do, as I discovered in analysis about Paredes. In case you have a median quantity of juice, aiming for the closest wall does wonders, significantly when your staff strikes that wall in.
I actually don’t know if he could make all these adjustments stick. After going 0-for-4 on Wednesday, he’s mired in a 12-game homerless stretch, although he’s been only a bit beneath common on the plate total in that window because of his newfound walks. In truth, it’s laborious to make an adjustment this excessive with out creating issues some other place. He’s flirting with being too fly ball oriented; his popup fee is at a profession excessive and his line drive fee is at a profession low. His new method is increase or bust, too; if the ball isn’t leaving the yard, it’s in all probability discovering a glove.
In my eyes, although, these weaknesses are an affordable tradeoff. We’re speaking about an elite defender with game-breaking velocity right here. He doesn’t have to be the very best hitter on the planet to make the entire bundle work. If he’s a 30-homer man as a substitute of 20, provides some doubles off of that new increased wall, and sprinkles within the occasional bunt single like he has all through his profession, he might be 15-20% higher than common offensively fairly simply. That bat on a man with Varsho’s glove is a perennial All Star.
It’s been a tough 12 months to be a Toronto fan. Bo and Vladdy are scuffling. The Raptors are tanking. The Maple Leafs proceed to be the Maple Leafs. Drake acquired torn to shreds by Kendrick Lamar. Not numerous issues are going proper for the time being. However no matter what the anticipated stats say, I believe that Varsho is bucking the pattern and that vivid days are forward for him if he can keep on with his new plan.
Editor’s Observe: All stats on this article are as of Wednesday morning, until specified in any other case.